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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HBAR

HBAR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hbar · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.50%
realized vol (ann.)
35.06%
max drawdown
0.94%
sharpe
-21.66
ulcer index
0.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1703.13
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-853.49
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.50%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-hbar/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.079
24h Δ · live
0.50%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
HBAR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0785 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0779, 0.0791] · R²=0.341▲ RISING +0.33%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 0.07880.07910.07880.07850.07820.0779μ = 0.0785max 0.0791min 0.0779dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,277,506 · μ=251100.2 · σ=289187.2 · CV=1.15BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170383,661767,3231,150,9841,534,645μ = 2511001,534,64550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1534645 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.0788
$mid $
$0.0788
◉prev-day close
$0.0784
Δ24h Δ %
+0.504%
$24h vol $
$486.80k
◐open interest $
$3.70M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0785 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0779, 0.0791] · R²=0.341▲ RISING +0.33%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 0.07880.07910.07880.07850.07820.0779μ = 0.0785max 0.0791min 0.0779dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0788 · 24h 0.50% · range $[0.0779, 0.0791]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0778, 0.0796] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +0.84%CLOSE 0.0788 vs OPEN 0.0781 (+0.84%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.07880.07960.07910.07870.07820.0778μ close = 0.0785O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.51%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.51%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.17%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.17%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.50%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.50%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.04%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.04%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.20%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.20%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.35%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.35%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.30%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.30%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.24%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.24%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.04%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.04%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.16%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.16%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.72%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.72%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.58%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.58%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.08%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.08%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.16%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.16%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.38%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.38%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.27%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.27%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.07%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.07%)0.8%O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.80%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+0.80%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.21%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.21%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.10%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.10%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.63%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.63%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.00%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.00%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.10%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.10%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.29%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.29%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.03%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,277,506 · μ=251100.2 · σ=289187.2 · CV=1.15BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=170383,661767,3231,150,9841,534,645μ = 251100164,098 · 10.7% peak164,098 · 10.7% peak132,349 · 8.6% peak132,349 · 8.6% peak63,017 · 4.1% peak63,017 · 4.1% peak99,345 · 6.5% peak99,345 · 6.5% peak445,067 · 29.0% peak445,067 · 29.0% peak323,705 · 21.1% peak323,705 · 21.1% peak61,574 · 4.0% peak61,574 · 4.0% peak76,524 · 5.0% peak76,524 · 5.0% peak129,377 · 8.4% peak129,377 · 8.4% peak102,016 · 6.6% peak102,016 · 6.6% peak152,746 · 10.0% peak152,746 · 10.0% peak217,546 · 14.2% peak217,546 · 14.2% peak104,415 · 6.8% peak104,415 · 6.8% peak308,914 · 20.1% peak308,914 · 20.1% peak238,705 · 15.6% peak238,705 · 15.6% peak252,528 · 16.5% peak252,528 · 16.5% peak1,534,6451,534,645 · 100.0% peak1,534,645 · 100.0% peak300,158 · 19.6% peak300,158 · 19.6% peak177,844 · 11.6% peak177,844 · 11.6% peak398,251 · 26.0% peak398,251 · 26.0% peak143,574 · 9.4% peak143,574 · 9.4% peak282,839 · 18.4% peak282,839 · 18.4% peak225,343 · 14.7% peak225,343 · 14.7% peak316,456 · 20.6% peak316,456 · 20.6% peak26,470 · 1.7% peak26,470 · 1.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6277506 · peak 1534645 · CV 1.15

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0034 · skew=0.81 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.14 (mesokurtic)43210 3-41.09bpbin -41.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -41.09bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-30.57bpbin -30.57bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -30.57bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-20.04bpbin -20.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -20.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-9.51bpbin -9.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -9.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 41.01bpbin 1.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 1.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 111.54bpbin 11.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 11.54bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 322.06bpbin 22.06bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 22.06bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 132.59bpbin 32.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 32.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak43.11bp53.64bp 164.16bpbin 64.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 64.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 274.69bpbin 74.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 74.69bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.75 · kurt=-0.09 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0788
Mid price
$0.0788
24h change
+0.50%
Mark–mid spread
0.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0784

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0785$95% CI: [0.0784$, 0.0786$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.46%
med MEDIAN0.0785$Q₁ 0.0783$ · Q₃ 0.0787$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0013$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0779$Q₁ 0.0783$med 0.0785$Q₃ 0.0787$max 0.0791$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.005approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.937mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.61
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.013559%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.039
σᵣ STD / h0.351805%σ²ᵣ = 0.124×10⁻⁴ · CV = 25.95×
σ ANNUALISED32.93%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.352%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.61excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)4.56strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.81right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.19mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.26
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+118.77%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.44%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.444%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.461%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.459%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.08%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.444%VaR₉₉−0.461%ES₉₅−0.459%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK7.87$
−1.08% drawdown over 6h
7.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.10% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
52.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.691 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0793
Bollinger MA
$0.0785
Bollinger lower
$0.0777

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.196within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.317lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.849strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.451significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.849
H = 0.849STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.196k=2-0.317k=3+0.174k=4+0.141k=5-0.1880+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$486.80k
Open interest (USD)
$3.70M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -0.46% · typical |Δ| 0.27%MILD BULLISH +0.33%BEST+0.80%21hWORST-0.46%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.33%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.43%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.33%+0.73%-0.88%0.21% · 12h0.21% · 12h0.21%12h-0.46% · 13h-0.46% · 13h-0.46%13h▼ WORST0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.20% · 15h0.20% · 15h0.20%15h-0.39% · 16h-0.39% · 16h-0.39%16h-0.26% · 17h-0.26% · 17h-0.26%17h-0.24% · 18h-0.24% · 18h-0.24%18h0.03% · 19h0.03% · 19h0.03%19h0.13% · 20h0.13% · 20h0.13%20h0.80% · 21h0.80% · 21h0.80%21h★ BEST-0.45% · 22h-0.45% · 22h-0.45%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.19% · 00h0.19% · 00h0.19%00h0.37% · 01h0.37% · 01h0.37%01h-0.32% · 02h-0.32% · 02h-0.32%02h-0.10% · 03h-0.10% · 03h-0.10%03h0.75% · 04h0.75% · 04h0.75%04h-0.29% · 05h-0.29% · 05h-0.29%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.61% · 07h0.61% · 07h0.61%07h0.05% · 08h0.05% · 08h0.05%08h-0.05% · 09h-0.05% · 09h-0.05%09h-0.31% · 10h-0.31% · 10h-0.31%10h-0.04% · 11h-0.04% · 11h-0.04%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.10%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.80% · worst -0.46% · typical |Δ| 0.269%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.31%FINAL+0.31%MAX DD-1.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.72%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0031 · peak 1.0072 · range [0.9912, 1.0072]1.00720.9912break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0072UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.09% · moderate0%-1.09%▼ TROUGH -1.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.09%bar 3-17 · 15 bars · recovered#2 -0.40%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.38%bar 19-20 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0031 (0.31%) · max DD -1.09% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=3.03 · σ=29.18PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 7.87 (+0.17σ vs μ)65.5032.750.00-32.75-65.50μ = 3.03-33.28-33.28-65.50-65.50-40.37-40.37-33.65-33.652.762.760.270.278.088.0824.6424.6436.4636.4617.5417.54-19.15-19.1533.6533.6522.1322.1311.4511.4518.4118.4134.1734.1736.3436.34-4.19-4.197.877.87v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 7.873 · range [-65.50, 36.46] · μ 3.033 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=34.9603 · σ=7.1888 · range [21.4380, 43.5503] · R²=0.143▲ RISING +2.76%σ EXTREME 20.56%LAST 28.967443.550338.022332.494226.966121.4380μ = 34.9603max 43.5503min 21.4380dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.97% · range [21.44%, 43.55%] · μ 34.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.201 · σ=0.213MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.023 (+0.84σ vs μ)0.5190.2600.000-0.260-0.519μ = -0.201-0.360-0.360-0.095-0.0950.0490.0490.0050.0050.2900.290-0.202-0.202-0.283-0.283-0.358-0.358-0.322-0.322-0.383-0.3830.0030.003-0.190-0.190-0.443-0.443-0.398-0.398-0.294-0.294-0.519-0.519-0.332-0.3320.0350.035-0.023-0.023v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.023 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.6293
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2686
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5685
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2538
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5158
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0381
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5037
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1327
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.542 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.21e-5 · top T=3.43h (29.5%) · top-3 cover 55.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.3e-53.2e-52.1e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.68e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.68e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.75e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.53e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.53e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.58e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.58e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.28e-5 · 29.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.28e-5 · 29.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.44e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.44e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.41e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.41e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.45e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.45e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.88e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.88e-6 · 4.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 29.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.453e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 55.48× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
55.48×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 19.86400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.009
annualized 19.86
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 602% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 18.28σ ann 33% · Sortino 15.57 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%439%877%1316%1755%2194%602.3%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)32.9%Ann. vol σ1828.0%Sharpe (ann)1557.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0750.0770.0780.0800.0810.083t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:03 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4f8ca5302db425cf96621b38303d5d76eb08816295ba416d884003164e76e10c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.67K
bid $1.25K · ask $422
Depth within 5bp
$9.11K
bid $3.35K · ask $5.76K
Depth within 10bp
$39.69K
bid $11.85K · ask $27.83K
Depth within 50bp
$113.15K
bid $38.03K · ask $75.12K
Mid price
0.078814
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.327
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.022
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hbar/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0788221.14bp0.0788252FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0788504.58bp0.0788648FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07891012.30bp0.07894220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0788080.70bp0.0788081FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0787715.38bp0.07874810FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0787399.47bp0.07870020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-hbar/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.28M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hbar/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.236 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.34M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.78M
real volume
Net delta
$1.44M
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.61%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-hbar/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 0.88% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.078549→0.0778550.884%2
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z0ms0.078609→0.0782130.504%1

/api/asset/hl-hbar/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
32.95%
σ per bar = 0.000144
Mean return (annualised)
602.30%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
18.28
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.94%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 258 bars

/api/asset/hl-hbar/risk · same metrics, JSON