Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FOGO

FOGO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fogo · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.87%
realized vol (ann.)
73.24%
max drawdown
2.00%
sharpe
-27.25
ulcer index
0.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2391.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1087.59
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.87%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.87%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-fogo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH66ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.012
24h Δ · live
-3.87%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
FOGO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0130] · R²=0.892▼ FALLING -3.82%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.01250.01300.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0130min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,810,535 · μ=152421.4 · σ=149515.6 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 152421569,08450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 569084 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
66ms
$mark $
$0.0125
$mid $
$0.0125
◉prev-day close
$0.013
Δ24h Δ %
-3.875%
$24h vol $
$47.65k
◐open interest $
$358.09k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0130] · R²=0.892▼ FALLING -3.82%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.01250.01300.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0130min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0125 · 24h -3.87% · range $[0.0125, 0.0130]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0124, 0.0131] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%STRONG BEARISH -3.26%CLOSE 0.0125 vs OPEN 0.0129 (-3.26%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01250.01310.01290.01270.01260.0124μ close = 0.0127O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.58%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.58%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)-1.1%O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.73%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.73%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.24%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,810,535 · μ=152421.4 · σ=149515.6 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 152421192,888 · 33.9% peak192,888 · 33.9% peak203,933 · 35.8% peak203,933 · 35.8% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak569,084569,084 · 100.0% peak569,084 · 100.0% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak557,832 · 98.0% peak557,832 · 98.0% peak30,219 · 5.3% peak30,219 · 5.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3810535 · peak 569084 · CV 0.98

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0040 · skew=0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.62 (mesokurtic)65320 1-84.00bpbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-70.20bpbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-56.41bpbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-42.61bpbin -42.61bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -42.61bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak-28.82bp 6-15.02bpbin -15.02bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -15.02bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2-1.23bpbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 312.57bpbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 126.36bpbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 140.16bpbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 153.95bpbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 167.75bpbin 67.75bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 67.75bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.23 · kurt=-0.52 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0125
Mid price
$0.0125
24h change
-3.87%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.013

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.53)
μ MEAN0.0127$95% CI: [0.0126$, 0.0128$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.18%
med MEDIAN0.0127$Q₁ 0.0126$ · Q₃ 0.0128$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0005$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0125$Q₁ 0.0126$med 0.0127$Q₃ 0.0128$max 0.0130$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.034approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.530platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-36.56
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.162275%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.391
σᵣ STD / h0.415375%σ²ᵣ = 0.173×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.56×
σ ANNUALISED38.88%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.415%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-36.56negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-32.43downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.25approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.35mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1421.53%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.70%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.696%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.860%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.804%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.82%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.696%VaR₉₉−0.860%ES₉₅−0.804%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK1.30$
−3.82% drawdown over 24h
1.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
26.2 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.123 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0129
Bollinger MA
$0.0127
Bollinger lower
$0.0124

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.100within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.015lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.786strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-13.795significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.786
H = 0.786STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.100k=2-0.015k=3-0.229k=4 ★-0.438k=5+0.0960+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.79)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.67very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.79)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$47.65k
Open interest (USD)
$358.09k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.36%BEARISH SESSION -3.89%BEST+0.75%19hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.89%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.31%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -1.99%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.89%+0.00%-3.89%-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h0.75% · 19h0.75% · 19h0.75%19h★ BEST-0.39% · 20h-0.39% · 20h-0.39%20h0.03% · 21h0.03% · 21h0.03%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.70% · 23h-0.70% · 23h-0.70%23h0.50% · 00h0.50% · 00h0.50%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.12% · 02h-0.12% · 02h-0.12%02h0.40% · 03h0.40% · 03h0.40%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST-0.69% · 05h-0.69% · 05h-0.69%05h-0.46% · 06h-0.46% · 06h-0.46%06h-0.16% · 07h-0.16% · 07h-0.16%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.10% · 09h0.10% · 09h0.10%09h-0.12% · 10h-0.12% · 10h-0.12%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11h-0.11% · 12h-0.11% · 12h-0.11%12h0.19% · 13h0.19% · 13h0.19%13h-0.68% · 14h-0.68% · 14h-0.68%14h-0.21% · 15h-0.21% · 15h-0.21%15hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.60%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.357%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.84%)FINAL-3.84%MAX DD-3.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9616 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9616, 1.0000]1.00000.9616break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.84% · moderate0%-3.84%▼ TROUGH -3.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.84%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9616 (-3.84%) · max DD -3.84% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-29.95 · σ=22.64UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -50.78 (-0.92σ vs μ)64.8132.400.00-32.40-64.81μ = -29.95-24.63-24.63-25.84-25.84-38.67-38.67-9.34-9.34-33.17-33.17-24.67-24.67-10.63-10.63-18.83-18.83-18.60-18.60-51.59-51.59-64.81-64.81-47.25-47.25-64.69-64.69-48.90-48.90-26.58-26.58-6.37-6.3728.8928.89-32.67-32.67-50.78-50.78v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -50.784 · range [-64.81, 28.89] · μ -29.954 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.6421 · σ=12.6692 · range [14.4866, 54.9871] · R²=0.541▼ FALLING -38.55%σ EXTREME 31.96%LAST 27.089554.987144.862034.736924.611714.4866μ = 39.6421max 54.9871min 14.4866dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 27.09% · range [14.49%, 54.99%] · μ 39.64% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.079 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.303 (-0.77σ vs μ)0.5580.2790.000-0.279-0.558μ = -0.079-0.483-0.483-0.536-0.536-0.260-0.260-0.224-0.224-0.074-0.074-0.025-0.0250.0150.015-0.370-0.3700.1160.1160.0640.064-0.031-0.031-0.027-0.0270.5580.5580.4680.4680.1630.163-0.176-0.176-0.004-0.004-0.378-0.378-0.303-0.303v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.303 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3667
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8325
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.1241
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1483
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9887
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7560
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6297
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5289
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8973
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3888
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6974
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.882 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.83e-5 · top T=2.00h (19.3%) · top-3 cover 55.1%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)4.2e-53.2e-52.1e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.39e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.39e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 18.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 18.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.32e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.32e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.75e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.75e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.36e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.36e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 19.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 19.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.196e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-18.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.01400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.01
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -757% · APY -100% · Sharpe -11.93σ ann 63% · Sortino -6.70 · n 4999
-1432%-1130%-829%-527%-225%76%-756.7%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)63.4%Ann. vol σ-1193.2%Sharpe (ann)-670.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0120.0120.0130.0130.013t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:27:51 UTC
Snapshot age
66ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:27:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7dc0d95622219ff4953bc35ce8ae0071068a758c23d8c1eadf5f4fca70369049 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,040.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.57

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.99K
bid $346 · ask $1.64K
Depth within 50bp
$14.67K
bid $7.78K · ask $6.90K
Mid price
0.012478
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
14.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.311
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.207
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fogo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0124887.81bp0.0124882FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01251831.88bp0.0125729FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.012746214.63bp0.01302020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0124669.63bp0.0124643FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01243634.05bp0.01239510FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012329119.32bp0.01221020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-fogo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.81M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-fogo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.503 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$899.34K
real volume
Sell weight
$2.72M
real volume
Net delta
$1.82M
sellers net
Imbalance
-50.28%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
50.3%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-fogo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.19% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.012820→0.0125392.192%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.012909→0.0127041.588%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.012959→0.0128131.127%2

/api/asset/hl-fogo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
63.41%
σ per bar = 0.000277
Mean return (annualised)
-756.68%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.16%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2438 bars

/api/asset/hl-fogo/risk · same metrics, JSON