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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

EIGEN

EIGEN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eigen · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.70%
realized vol (ann.)
95.74%
max drawdown
2.12%
sharpe
-35.17
ulcer index
1.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2762.96
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.01%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1674.26
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.70%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +4.70%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-eigen/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.194
24h Δ · live
4.70%
24h vol · live
$1.3M
EIGEN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1917 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.1847, 0.2038] · R²=0.607▲ RISING +4.92%σ NORMAL 3.16%LAST 0.19390.20380.19900.19430.18950.1847μ = 0.1917max 0.2038min 0.1847dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.19
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,386,308 · μ=295452.3 · σ=240648.6 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140212,439424,877637,316849,754μ = 295452849,754.3850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 849754 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$0.1939
$mid $
$0.1939
◉prev-day close
$0.1852
Δ24h Δ %
+4.698%
$24h vol $
$1.34M
◐open interest $
$2.96M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1917 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.1847, 0.2038] · R²=0.607▲ RISING +4.92%σ NORMAL 3.16%LAST 0.19390.20380.19900.19430.18950.1847μ = 0.1917max 0.2038min 0.1847dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1939 · 24h 4.70% · range $[0.1847, 0.2038]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.1805, 0.2072] · σ=0.0061 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +7.13%CLOSE 0.1939 vs OPEN 0.1810 (+7.13%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.19390.20720.20050.19380.18720.1805μ close = 0.1917O0.181 H0.186 L0.180 C0.185 (+2.10%)O0.181 H0.186 L0.180 C0.185 (+2.10%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.60%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.60%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.65%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.65%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.86%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.86%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.75%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.75%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.183 C0.188 (+0.43%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.183 C0.188 (+0.43%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.185 C0.186 (-1.17%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.185 C0.186 (-1.17%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.16%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.16%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.186 (+0.16%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.186 (+0.16%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.65%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-1.07%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-1.07%)3.5%O0.185 H0.193 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.51%)O0.185 H0.193 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.51%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.190 C0.195 (+1.51%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.190 C0.195 (+1.51%)O0.195 H0.202 L0.195 C0.200 (+2.77%)O0.195 H0.202 L0.195 C0.200 (+2.77%)O0.200 H0.205 L0.199 C0.200 (-0.30%)O0.200 H0.205 L0.199 C0.200 (-0.30%)O0.200 H0.207 L0.198 C0.204 (+2.16%)O0.200 H0.207 L0.198 C0.204 (+2.16%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.196 C0.198 (-2.94%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.196 C0.198 (-2.94%)O0.197 H0.203 L0.196 C0.198 (+0.51%)O0.197 H0.203 L0.196 C0.198 (+0.51%)O0.198 H0.201 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.30%)O0.198 H0.201 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.30%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.46%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.46%)O0.196 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (+0.10%)O0.196 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (+0.10%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.197 (-0.05%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.197 (-0.05%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.12%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.12%)O0.194 H0.195 L0.194 C0.194 (-0.26%)O0.194 H0.195 L0.194 C0.194 (-0.26%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,386,308 · μ=295452.3 · σ=240648.6 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140212,439424,877637,316849,754μ = 295452476,425.2 · 56.1% peak476,425.2 · 56.1% peak47,354.91 · 5.6% peak47,354.91 · 5.6% peak47,146.26 · 5.5% peak47,146.26 · 5.5% peak291,814.06 · 34.3% peak291,814.06 · 34.3% peak530,796.15 · 62.5% peak530,796.15 · 62.5% peak238,931.32 · 28.1% peak238,931.32 · 28.1% peak161,317.31 · 19.0% peak161,317.31 · 19.0% peak42,365.65 · 5.0% peak42,365.65 · 5.0% peak97,917.39 · 11.5% peak97,917.39 · 11.5% peak53,983.03 · 6.4% peak53,983.03 · 6.4% peak44,167.96 · 5.2% peak44,167.96 · 5.2% peak687,701.95 · 80.9% peak687,701.95 · 80.9% peak849,754.38849,754.38 · 100.0% peak849,754.38 · 100.0% peak346,348.74 · 40.8% peak346,348.74 · 40.8% peak354,729.51 · 41.7% peak354,729.51 · 41.7% peak314,149.86 · 37.0% peak314,149.86 · 37.0% peak557,967.05 · 65.7% peak557,967.05 · 65.7% peak433,895.46 · 51.1% peak433,895.46 · 51.1% peak559,105.63 · 65.8% peak559,105.63 · 65.8% peak105,268.37 · 12.4% peak105,268.37 · 12.4% peak670,651.62 · 78.9% peak670,651.62 · 78.9% peak89,221.79 · 10.5% peak89,221.79 · 10.5% peak105,924.66 · 12.5% peak105,924.66 · 12.5% peak96,495 · 11.4% peak96,495 · 11.4% peak182,874.48 · 21.5% peak182,874.48 · 21.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7386308 · peak 849754 · CV 0.81

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0019 · σ=0.0126 · skew=0.48 (symmetric) · kurt=0.75 (mesokurtic)97520 1-271.77bpbin -271.77bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -271.77bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-217.66bp-163.54bp 3-109.43bpbin -109.43bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -109.43bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 3-55.31bpbin -55.31bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -55.31bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 9-1.20bpbin -1.20bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -1.20bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 352.91bpbin 52.91bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 52.91bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 1107.03bpbin 107.03bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 107.03bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1161.14bpbin 161.14bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 161.14bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1215.26bpbin 215.26bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 215.26bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1269.37bpbin 269.37bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 269.37bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1323.48bpbin 323.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 323.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.41 · kurt=1.03 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1939
Mid price
$0.1939
24h change
+4.70%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1852

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.49)
μ MEAN0.1917$95% CI: [0.1894$, 0.1941$]
σ STD DEV0.0061$σ² = 0.368×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.16%
med MEDIAN0.1916$Q₁ 0.1858$ · Q₃ 0.1966$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0191$ · IQR 0.0108$ (1.349σ→0.0082$)
min 0.1847$Q₁ 0.1858$med 0.1916$Q₃ 0.1966$max 0.2038$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.262approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.493platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.15
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=13.85
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.200285%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.148
σᵣ STD / h1.353284%σ²ᵣ = 1.831×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.76×
σ ANNUALISED126.66%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.353%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)13.85excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)16.74strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.44approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.58leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.21
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1754.50%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.22%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.216%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.584%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.110%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.86%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.216%VaR₉₉−2.584%ES₉₅−2.110%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK20.38$
−4.86% drawdown over 8h
19.39$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.74× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +5.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.530 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2050
Bollinger MA
$0.1932
Bollinger lower
$0.1814

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.103within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.397lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.884strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.956significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.884
H = 0.884STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.103k=2+0.397k=3-0.195k=4+0.075k=5-0.3240+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.96)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.96)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.34M
Open interest (USD)
$2.96M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.45x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.51% · worst -2.99% · typical |Δ| 0.92%MILD BULLISH +4.81%BEST+3.51%23hWORST-2.99%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.92%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.81%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.58%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.23%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.81%+9.79%-0.05%0.54% · 12h0.54% · 12h0.54%12h-0.59% · 13h-0.59% · 13h-0.59%13h1.02% · 14h1.02% · 14h1.02%14h0.64% · 15h0.64% · 15h0.64%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-1.23% · 17h-1.23% · 17h-1.23%17h0.22% · 18h0.22% · 18h0.22%18h-0.27% · 19h-0.27% · 19h-0.27%19h0.11% · 20h0.11% · 20h0.11%20h0.70% · 21h0.70% · 21h0.70%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h3.51% · 23h3.51% · 23h3.51%23h★ BEST1.50% · 00h1.50% · 00h1.50%00h2.84% · 01h2.84% · 01h2.84%01h-0.25% · 02h-0.25% · 02h-0.25%02h2.08% · 03h2.08% · 03h2.08%03h-2.99% · 04h-2.99% · 04h-2.99%04h▼ WORST0.25% · 05h0.25% · 05h0.25%05h-0.35% · 06h-0.35% · 06h-0.35%06h-0.51% · 07h-0.51% · 07h-0.51%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h-0.05% · 09h-0.05% · 09h-0.05%09h-1.13% · 10h-1.13% · 10h-1.13%10h-0.21% · 11h-0.21% · 11h-0.21%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.58%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 3.51% · worst -2.99% · typical |Δ| 0.921%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.70%FINAL+4.70%MAX DD-4.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.11%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0470 · peak 1.1011 · range [0.9994, 1.1011]1.10110.9994break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1011UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.91% · moderate0%-4.91%▼ TROUGH -4.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.91%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.56%bar 7-12 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.59%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0470 (4.70%) · max DD -4.91% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=5.70 · σ=43.50MIXED EDGELAST -84.59 (-2.08σ vs μ)84.5942.300.00-42.30-84.59μ = 5.707.957.952.042.048.618.61-11.86-11.86-10.26-10.26-31.93-31.9331.5531.5543.3243.3268.9568.9563.7063.7075.4475.4443.7343.7325.7125.7111.9911.99-16.91-16.91-14.47-14.47-47.55-47.55-57.20-57.20-84.59-84.59v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -84.592 · range [-84.59, 75.44] · μ 5.697 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=122.2958 · σ=57.0646 · range [38.7271, 223.3403] · R²=0.063▼ FALLING -51.17%σ EXTREME 46.66%LAST 38.7271223.3403177.1870131.033784.880438.7271μ = 122.2958max 223.3403min 38.7271dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.73% · range [38.73%, 223.34%] · μ 122.30% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.271 · σ=0.176MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.352 (-0.46σ vs μ)0.5900.2950.000-0.295-0.590μ = -0.271-0.109-0.109-0.076-0.0760.1040.104-0.242-0.242-0.205-0.205-0.312-0.312-0.366-0.366-0.168-0.168-0.160-0.160-0.339-0.339-0.532-0.532-0.212-0.212-0.241-0.241-0.384-0.384-0.588-0.588-0.590-0.590-0.196-0.196-0.179-0.179-0.352-0.352v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.352 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.2791
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1941
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.5156
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0892
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3337
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6120
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6669
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0166
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.6663
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.203 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.91e-4 · top T=2.18h (25.5%) · top-3 cover 57.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.9e-44.4e-42.9e-41.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.47e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.47e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.61e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.61e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.11e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.11e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.89e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.89e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.39e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.39e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.74e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.74e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.09e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.09e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.88e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.88e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.85e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.85e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.77e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.77e-4 · 16.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 25.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.295e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -8.87× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-8.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.53400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.53
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -16.30σ ann 184% · Sortino -14.18 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1955%-1520%-1085%-650%-215%221%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)183.8%Ann. vol σ-1629.5%Sharpe (ann)-1418.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1860.1920.1980.2040.2100.216t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:21:57 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:21:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7e4900770306e2ef131d475e99ba86678363386814c8ae8a5bbcf23f7ca74ccc · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,493HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$28.78K
bid $22.38K · ask $6.40K
Depth within 10bp
$30.99K
bid $22.38K · ask $8.61K
Depth within 50bp
$96.40K
bid $54.02K · ask $42.38K
Mid price
0.193950
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.262
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.244
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eigen/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1940002.58bp0.1940001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1940505.15bp0.1942003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.19499253.72bp0.19620020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1939002.58bp0.1939001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1939002.58bp0.1939001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.19310943.34bp0.19210017FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-eigen/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.39M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eigen/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.134 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.92M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.99M
real volume
Net delta
$924.75K
buyers net
Imbalance
13.38%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-eigen/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.86% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z7.0h0.203800→0.1939004.858%8
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.187900→0.1855001.277%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms0.187000→0.1850001.070%1

/api/asset/hl-eigen/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
183.80%
σ per bar = 0.000802
Mean return (annualised)
-2995.09%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-16.30
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.83%
peak 0.21 → trough 0.19 over 4484 bars

/api/asset/hl-eigen/risk · same metrics, JSON