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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CELO

CELO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-celo · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.37%
realized vol (ann.)
37.78%
max drawdown
1.12%
sharpe
5.56
ulcer index
0.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
312.03
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
195.99
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.37%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.81%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-celo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.061
24h Δ · live
-0.37%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
CELO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0615 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0611, 0.0618] · R²=0.039▼ FALLING -0.34%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.06140.06180.06160.06150.06130.0611μ = 0.0615max 0.0618min 0.0611dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.0%Short fee 53.0%SHORT FEE53.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000778% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,125,968 · μ=45038.7 · σ=19508.0 · CV=0.43STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13027,69855,39683,093110,791μ = 45039110,79150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 110791 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.0613
$mid $
$0.0613
◉prev-day close
$0.0616
Δ24h Δ %
-0.365%
$24h vol $
$67.70k
◐open interest $
$108.82k
%funding (1h)
0.000778%
%funding (yr)
+6.81%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0615 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0611, 0.0618] · R²=0.039▼ FALLING -0.34%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.06140.06180.06160.06150.06130.0611μ = 0.0615max 0.0618min 0.0611dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0613 · 24h -0.37% · range $[0.0611, 0.0618]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0610, 0.0620] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -0.62%CLOSE 0.0614 vs OPEN 0.0618 (-0.62%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.06140.06200.06170.06150.06130.0610μ close = 0.0615O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.28%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.28%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.51%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.51%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.32%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.32%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.47%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.47%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.51%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.51%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.49%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.49%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.18%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.18%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.46%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.46%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.21%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.21%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.60%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.60%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.41%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.062 C0.062 (-0.41%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.22%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.22%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.53%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.53%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.34%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.34%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.00%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (-0.00%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.09%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.09%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.27%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.27%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.01%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.01%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.21%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.21%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.38%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.38%)0.6%O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.65%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.65%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.40%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.062 (+0.40%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.50%)O0.062 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.50%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.11%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.061 C0.061 (-0.11%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.01%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.061 C0.061 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,125,968 · μ=45038.7 · σ=19508.0 · CV=0.43STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13027,69855,39683,093110,791μ = 4503934,779 · 31.4% peak34,779 · 31.4% peak32,964 · 29.8% peak32,964 · 29.8% peak110,791110,791 · 100.0% peak110,791 · 100.0% peak42,710 · 38.6% peak42,710 · 38.6% peak76,973 · 69.5% peak76,973 · 69.5% peak31,382 · 28.3% peak31,382 · 28.3% peak34,918 · 31.5% peak34,918 · 31.5% peak27,468 · 24.8% peak27,468 · 24.8% peak39,918 · 36.0% peak39,918 · 36.0% peak44,719 · 40.4% peak44,719 · 40.4% peak31,477 · 28.4% peak31,477 · 28.4% peak28,531 · 25.8% peak28,531 · 25.8% peak59,807 · 54.0% peak59,807 · 54.0% peak69,041 · 62.3% peak69,041 · 62.3% peak25,728 · 23.2% peak25,728 · 23.2% peak27,722 · 25.0% peak27,722 · 25.0% peak53,448 · 48.2% peak53,448 · 48.2% peak45,544 · 41.1% peak45,544 · 41.1% peak40,121 · 36.2% peak40,121 · 36.2% peak28,085 · 25.3% peak28,085 · 25.3% peak61,880 · 55.9% peak61,880 · 55.9% peak57,926 · 52.3% peak57,926 · 52.3% peak46,810 · 42.3% peak46,810 · 42.3% peak38,742 · 35.0% peak38,742 · 35.0% peak34,484 · 31.1% peak34,484 · 31.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1125968 · peak 110791 · CV 0.43

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0036 · skew=0.48 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.00 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 3-45.03bpbin -45.03bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -45.03bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-34.80bpbin -34.80bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -34.80bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-24.57bpbin -24.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -24.57bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-14.35bpbin -14.35bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -14.35bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-4.12bpbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 26.10bpbin 6.10bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 6.10bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 116.33bpbin 16.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 16.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 126.55bpbin 26.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 26.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 236.78bpbin 36.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 36.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 247.01bpbin 47.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 47.01bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak57.23bp 267.46bpbin 67.46bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 67.46bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.50 · kurt=-0.98 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0613
Mid price
$0.0613
24h change
-0.37%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0616

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0615$95% CI: [0.0614$, 0.0615$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.28%
med MEDIAN0.0615$Q₁ 0.0613$ · Q₃ 0.0616$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0611$Q₁ 0.0613$med 0.0615$Q₃ 0.0616$max 0.0618$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.144approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.594mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-3.62
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.014300%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.039
σᵣ STD / h0.369873%σ²ᵣ = 0.137×10⁻⁴ · CV = 25.86×
σ ANNUALISED34.62%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.370%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-3.62negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.23downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.53right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.92mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.17
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-125.27%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.45%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.448%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.490%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.477%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.16%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.448%VaR₉₉−0.490%ES₉₅−0.477%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK6.18$
−1.16% drawdown over 10h
6.11$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.17% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.397 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0618
Bollinger MA
$0.0614
Bollinger lower
$0.0611

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.203within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.296lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.526random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.963fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.526
H = 0.526RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.203k=2-0.296k=3-0.181k=4+0.118k=5-0.0910+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.96)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.25moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.96)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$67.70k
Open interest (USD)
$108.82k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.62x
1h funding
0.000778%
Funding (annualised)
+6.81%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.73% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -0.34%BEST+0.73%08hWORST-0.50%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.34%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.59%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.34%+0.37%-0.79%-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h▼ WORST0.32% · 14h0.32% · 14h0.32%14h0.48% · 15h0.48% · 15h0.48%15h-0.42% · 16h-0.42% · 16h-0.42%16h-0.37% · 17h-0.37% · 17h-0.37%17h-0.01% · 18h-0.01% · 18h-0.01%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h-0.25% · 20h-0.25% · 20h-0.25%20h0.63% · 21h0.63% · 21h0.63%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h-0.22% · 23h-0.22% · 23h-0.22%23h-0.30% · 00h-0.30% · 00h-0.30%00h0.40% · 01h0.40% · 01h0.40%01h0.03% · 02h0.03% · 02h0.03%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h-0.38% · 04h-0.38% · 04h-0.38%04h-0.07% · 05h-0.07% · 05h-0.07%05h-0.05% · 06h-0.05% · 06h-0.05%06h-0.35% · 07h-0.35% · 07h-0.35%07h0.73% · 08h0.73% · 08h0.73%08h★ BEST0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h-0.45% · 10h-0.45% · 10h-0.45%10h-0.18% · 11h-0.18% · 11h-0.18%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.75%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.73% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.312%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.36%)FINAL-0.36%MAX DD-1.16%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.36%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9964 · peak 1.0036 · range [0.9920, 1.0036]1.00360.9920break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0036UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.16% · moderate0%-1.16%▼ TROUGH -1.16%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.16%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.80%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.16%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9964 (-0.36%) · max DD -1.16% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-3.43 · σ=15.22MIXED EDGELAST 3.41 (+0.45σ vs μ)52.1226.060.00-26.06-52.12μ = -3.43-19.10-19.1018.6018.60-2.91-2.912.592.595.115.1110.8010.800.120.12-3.33-3.337.187.18-16.57-16.57-17.68-17.68-10.20-10.203.773.77-52.12-52.120.190.194.864.862.002.00-1.97-1.973.413.41v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.411 · range [-52.12, 18.60] · μ -3.435 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.7813 · σ=6.8878 · range [19.4189, 42.0448] · R²=0.039▲ RISING +6.72%σ EXTREME 19.25%LAST 41.172942.044836.388330.731925.075419.4189μ = 35.7813max 42.0448min 19.4189dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 41.17% · range [19.42%, 42.04%] · μ 35.78% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.195 · σ=0.187MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.133 (+0.33σ vs μ)0.5460.2730.000-0.273-0.546μ = -0.195-0.066-0.0660.1470.147-0.207-0.207-0.122-0.122-0.546-0.546-0.528-0.528-0.368-0.368-0.405-0.405-0.210-0.2100.0780.078-0.174-0.174-0.298-0.298-0.005-0.005-0.253-0.253-0.315-0.315-0.032-0.032-0.185-0.185-0.089-0.089-0.133-0.133v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.133 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3735
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.2712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.0845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0014
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1511
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4422
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4817
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1384
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.549 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.36e-5 · top T=6.00h (28.9%) · top-3 cover 71.1%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)4.7e-53.5e-52.4e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.50e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.50e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.73e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.73e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.72e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.72e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 28.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 28.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-10 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-10 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.04e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.04e-5 · 24.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.48e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.48e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.78e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.78e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.85e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.85e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.85e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.85e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 7.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 28.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.635e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-22.20×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.68400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.68
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -349% · APY -97% · Sharpe -8.80σ ann 40% · Sortino -6.28 · n 4999
-1057%-836%-615%-394%-173%48%-349.2%APR (simple)-97.2%APY (compound)39.7%Ann. vol σ-880.5%Sharpe (ann)-627.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0590.0600.0610.0620.0630.064t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:40:35 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:40:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d041b5a19c2e59b0c8cb90cfa860b237a1f357c4ceccd0d55d2429ee05a1c922 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,314HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$595
bid $301 · ask $294
Depth within 10bp
$1.89K
bid $839 · ask $1.06K
Depth within 50bp
$13.19K
bid $5.81K · ask $7.37K
Mid price
0.061346
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.010
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.089
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-celo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0613795.24bp0.0613812FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.06155333.65bp0.06190515FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.062191137.67bp0.06291420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0612968.15bp0.0612474FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.06098758.64bp0.06014916FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.060193188.04bp0.05906020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+7.777e-6
0.00078% / hr
Annualised APR
6.817%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
53.6d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
53.6d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.817%53.6d1.47y
SHORTRECEIVE6.817%53.6d1.47y

/api/asset/hl-celo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.13M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-celo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.079 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$502.47K
real volume
Sell weight
$588.72K
real volume
Net delta
$86.25K
sellers net
Imbalance
-7.90%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-celo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 0.87% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.061812→0.0612760.867%2
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.061766→0.0612740.797%2
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z1.0h0.061701→0.0613090.635%2

/api/asset/hl-celo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.66%
σ per bar = 0.000173
Mean return (annualised)
-349.18%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.80
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.12%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 995 bars

/api/asset/hl-celo/risk · same metrics, JSON