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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CAKE

CAKE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-cake · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.72%
realized vol (ann.)
41.62%
max drawdown
1.30%
sharpe
24.84
ulcer index
0.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1942.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
843.53
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.72%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-cake/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.351
24h Δ · live
0.72%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
CAKE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.3489 · σ=0.0106 · range [1.3321, 1.3818] · R²=0.194▲ RISING +1.02%σ LOW 0.79%LAST 1.35161.38181.36941.35691.34451.3321μ = 1.3489max 1.3818min 1.3321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.35
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=112,293 · μ=4491.7 · σ=5008.4 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1605,18110,36215,54320,724μ = 449220,723.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 20724 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$1.3506
$mid $
$1.3507
◉prev-day close
$1.341
Δ24h Δ %
+0.716%
$24h vol $
$148.43k
◐open interest $
$687.39k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.3489 · σ=0.0106 · range [1.3321, 1.3818] · R²=0.194▲ RISING +1.02%σ LOW 0.79%LAST 1.35161.38181.36941.35691.34451.3321μ = 1.3489max 1.3818min 1.3321dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.3506 · 24h 0.72% · range $[1.3321, 1.3818]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [1.3314, 1.3830] · σ=0.0106 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=58%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 1.3516 vs OPEN 1.3491 (+0.19%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.35161.38301.37011.35721.34431.3314μ close = 1.3489O1.349 H1.349 L1.335 C1.338 (-0.82%)O1.349 H1.349 L1.335 C1.338 (-0.82%)O1.339 H1.339 L1.332 C1.332 (-0.49%)O1.339 H1.339 L1.332 C1.332 (-0.49%)O1.333 H1.339 L1.333 C1.336 (+0.25%)O1.333 H1.339 L1.333 C1.336 (+0.25%)O1.337 H1.337 L1.331 C1.335 (-0.14%)O1.337 H1.337 L1.331 C1.335 (-0.14%)O1.335 H1.340 L1.334 C1.339 (+0.28%)O1.335 H1.340 L1.334 C1.339 (+0.28%)O1.339 H1.351 L1.338 C1.346 (+0.57%)O1.339 H1.351 L1.338 C1.346 (+0.57%)O1.345 H1.349 L1.343 C1.347 (+0.13%)O1.345 H1.349 L1.343 C1.347 (+0.13%)O1.347 H1.351 L1.346 C1.351 (+0.28%)O1.347 H1.351 L1.346 C1.351 (+0.28%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.349 (-0.15%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.349 (-0.15%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.348 (-0.19%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.348 (-0.19%)O1.347 H1.354 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.34%)O1.347 H1.354 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.34%)O1.351 H1.352 L1.349 C1.351 (-0.01%)O1.351 H1.352 L1.349 C1.351 (-0.01%)O1.352 H1.352 L1.341 C1.341 (-0.81%)O1.352 H1.352 L1.341 C1.341 (-0.81%)O1.341 H1.366 L1.341 C1.366 (+1.92%)O1.341 H1.366 L1.341 C1.366 (+1.92%)O1.367 H1.382 L1.367 C1.382 (+1.08%)O1.367 H1.382 L1.367 C1.382 (+1.08%)-2.1%O1.383 H1.383 L1.354 C1.354 (-2.11%)O1.383 H1.383 L1.354 C1.354 (-2.11%)O1.354 H1.362 L1.350 C1.362 (+0.56%)O1.354 H1.362 L1.350 C1.362 (+0.56%)O1.361 H1.361 L1.350 C1.352 (-0.71%)O1.361 H1.361 L1.350 C1.352 (-0.71%)O1.351 H1.357 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.351 H1.357 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.357 L1.350 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.357 L1.350 C1.352 (+0.03%)O1.352 H1.354 L1.345 C1.348 (-0.28%)O1.352 H1.354 L1.345 C1.348 (-0.28%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.08%)O1.350 H1.353 L1.347 C1.351 (+0.08%)O1.351 H1.354 L1.336 C1.337 (-0.98%)O1.351 H1.354 L1.336 C1.337 (-0.98%)O1.340 H1.352 L1.340 C1.352 (+0.90%)O1.340 H1.352 L1.340 C1.352 (+0.90%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.01%)O1.351 H1.353 L1.349 C1.352 (+0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=112,293 · μ=4491.7 · σ=5008.4 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1605,18110,36215,54320,724μ = 44924,902.7 · 23.7% peak4,902.7 · 23.7% peak2,797.4 · 13.5% peak2,797.4 · 13.5% peak2,528.5 · 12.2% peak2,528.5 · 12.2% peak3,569.5 · 17.2% peak3,569.5 · 17.2% peak2,502.2 · 12.1% peak2,502.2 · 12.1% peak1,935.7 · 9.3% peak1,935.7 · 9.3% peak1,318.7 · 6.4% peak1,318.7 · 6.4% peak1,348.2 · 6.5% peak1,348.2 · 6.5% peak1,716.7 · 8.3% peak1,716.7 · 8.3% peak2,669.3 · 12.9% peak2,669.3 · 12.9% peak1,623.3 · 7.8% peak1,623.3 · 7.8% peak1,412.4 · 6.8% peak1,412.4 · 6.8% peak2,964.5 · 14.3% peak2,964.5 · 14.3% peak18,088.5 · 87.3% peak18,088.5 · 87.3% peak5,118.2 · 24.7% peak5,118.2 · 24.7% peak10,507.2 · 50.7% peak10,507.2 · 50.7% peak20,723.520,723.5 · 100.0% peak20,723.5 · 100.0% peak6,468.1 · 31.2% peak6,468.1 · 31.2% peak2,587.9 · 12.5% peak2,587.9 · 12.5% peak1,360.1 · 6.6% peak1,360.1 · 6.6% peak7,130.6 · 34.4% peak7,130.6 · 34.4% peak2,637.3 · 12.7% peak2,637.3 · 12.7% peak3,238.2 · 15.6% peak3,238.2 · 15.6% peak2,431.5 · 11.7% peak2,431.5 · 11.7% peak712.4 · 3.4% peak712.4 · 3.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 112293 · peak 20724 · CV 1.12

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0074 · skew=-0.26 (symmetric) · kurt=0.70 (mesokurtic)65320 1-188.27bpbin -188.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -188.27bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-155.39bp-122.51bp 3-89.62bpbin -89.62bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -89.62bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-56.74bpbin -56.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -56.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-23.85bpbin -23.85bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -23.85bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 69.03bpbin 9.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 9.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 541.91bpbin 41.91bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 41.91bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 174.80bpbin 74.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 74.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2107.68bpbin 107.68bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 107.68bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak140.57bp 1173.45bpbin 173.45bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 173.45bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.23 · kurt=1.61 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.3506
Mid price
$1.3507
24h change
+0.72%
Mark–mid spread
0.37 bps
Prev-day close
$1.341

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.98)
μ MEAN1.3489$95% CI: [1.3448$, 1.3531$]
σ STD DEV0.0106$σ² = 1.127×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.79%
med MEDIAN1.3508$Q₁ 1.3406$ · Q₃ 1.3517$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0497$ · IQR 0.0111$ (1.349σ→0.0143$)
min 1.3321$Q₁ 1.3406$med 1.3508$Q₃ 1.3517$max 1.3818$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.976right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.659leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.68
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.13
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.042138%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.055
σᵣ STD / h0.769036%σ²ᵣ = 0.591×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.25×
σ ANNUALISED71.98%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.769%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.13excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)4.84strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.24approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.30leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+369.13%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.96%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.956%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.804%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.518%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.21%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.956%VaR₉₉−1.804%ES₉₅−1.518%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK138.18$
−3.21% drawdown over 8h
133.75$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.59× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.89× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.31% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.485 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.3707
Bollinger MA
$1.3522
Bollinger lower
$1.3336

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.342within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.157lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.864strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.354significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.864
H = 0.864STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.342k=2-0.157k=3+0.175k=4-0.178k=5+0.0820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$148.43k
Open interest (USD)
$687.39k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.22x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.125× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.562× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.781×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.90% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.51%MILD BULLISH +1.01%BEST+1.90%05hWORST-2.05%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.01%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.21%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.16%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.96%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.01%+3.22%-0.44%-0.44% · 17h-0.44% · 17h-0.44%17h0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h-0.08% · 19h-0.08% · 19h-0.08%19h0.28% · 20h0.28% · 20h0.28%20h0.57% · 21h0.57% · 21h0.57%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.28% · 23h0.28% · 23h0.28%23h-0.12% · 00h-0.12% · 00h-0.12%00h-0.13% · 01h-0.13% · 01h-0.13%01h0.27% · 02h0.27% · 02h0.27%02h-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.77% · 04h-0.77% · 04h-0.77%04h1.90% · 05h1.90% · 05h1.90%05h★ BEST1.13% · 06h1.13% · 06h1.13%06h-2.05% · 07h-2.05% · 07h-2.05%07h▼ WORST0.59% · 08h0.59% · 08h0.59%08h-0.74% · 09h-0.74% · 09h-0.74%09h0.01% · 10h0.01% · 10h0.01%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11h-0.30% · 12h-0.30% · 12h-0.30%12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h-0.99% · 14h-0.99% · 14h-0.99%14h1.05% · 15h1.05% · 15h1.05%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.96%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 42% down · 4% flat
13 up bars · 10 down · best 1.90% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.512%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.95%FINAL+0.95%MAX DD-3.24%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.24%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0095 · peak 1.0324 · range [0.9956, 1.0324]1.03240.9956break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0324UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.24% · moderate0%-3.24%▼ TROUGH -3.24%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -3.24%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.79%bar 12-13 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.44%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.24%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0095 (0.95%) · max DD -3.24% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=13.69 · σ=37.15MIXED EDGELAST -0.35 (-0.38σ vs μ)97.2648.630.00-48.63-97.26μ = 13.6930.0430.0497.2697.2658.5558.5554.1554.1553.4553.4528.6428.64-19.78-19.7819.5819.5838.6838.685.145.148.668.660.640.649.249.24-14.55-14.55-42.18-42.18-7.64-7.64-59.18-59.18-0.17-0.17-0.35-0.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.347 · range [-59.18, 97.26] · μ 13.694 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=67.7056 · σ=42.7144 · range [17.0076, 135.9915] · R²=0.196▲ RISING +88.98%σ EXTREME 63.09%LAST 62.2516135.9915106.245576.499546.753617.0076μ = 67.7056max 135.9915min 17.0076dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.25% · range [17.01%, 135.99%] · μ 67.71% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.302 · σ=0.212MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.590 (-1.36σ vs μ)0.7060.3530.000-0.353-0.706μ = -0.302-0.200-0.200-0.353-0.353-0.212-0.2120.1080.108-0.125-0.125-0.384-0.384-0.065-0.065-0.337-0.337-0.008-0.008-0.184-0.184-0.288-0.288-0.311-0.311-0.171-0.171-0.706-0.706-0.450-0.450-0.538-0.538-0.340-0.340-0.591-0.591-0.590-0.590v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.590 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.5423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0626
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7401
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0707
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6061
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1083
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3900
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8149
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0695
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.448 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.67e-5 · top T=2.40h (21.3%) · top-3 cover 56.8%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.81e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.81e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.79e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.79e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.48e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.48e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.00e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.00e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.17e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.17e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.45e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.45e-4 · 21.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.70e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.70e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.08e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.08e-8 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 21.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.802e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-17.85×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -0.86400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.000
annualized -0.86
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -303% · APY -96% · Sharpe -7.36σ ann 41% · Sortino -4.34 · n 4999
-883%-697%-510%-324%-137%49%-303.3%APR (simple)-95.6%APY (compound)41.2%Ann. vol σ-735.8%Sharpe (ann)-434.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.2831.3101.3371.3641.3911.417t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:18:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
163c632fe170b3d13f54e161330314514d2e607d6e2972193bdaae1f0edfc63d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,070HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.28

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.51K
bid $3.63K · ask $881
Depth within 10bp
$10.60K
bid $7.73K · ask $2.87K
Depth within 50bp
$46.52K
bid $28.83K · ask $17.69K
Mid price
1.350650
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.166
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.199
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cake/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.35113.29bp1.35182FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.353118.19bp1.354815FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.354830.37bp1.358120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.35023.35bp1.35013FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.34967.95bp1.348710FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.348119.01bp1.345920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-cake/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$112.29K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cake/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.209 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$64.92K
real volume
Sell weight
$42.47K
real volume
Net delta
$22.44K
buyers net
Imbalance
20.90%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cake/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z4.0h1.3818→1.35172.178%5
#22026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms1.3522→1.33751.087%1
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms1.3512→1.34060.784%1

/api/asset/hl-cake/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
41.22%
σ per bar = 0.000180
Mean return (annualised)
-303.27%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.36
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.90%
peak 1.36 → trough 1.34 over 3464 bars

/api/asset/hl-cake/risk · same metrics, JSON