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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BCH

BCH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bch · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.08%
realized vol (ann.)
36.96%
max drawdown
0.79%
sharpe
22.01
ulcer index
0.28%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2863.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.69%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1179.16
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.08%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
1.76%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.08%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bch/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH674ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$203.880
24h Δ · live
-2.08%
24h vol · live
$1.9M
BCH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=206.7432 · σ=2.1276 · range [202.9900, 208.9100] · R²=0.492▼ FALLING -1.85%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 203.8900208.9100207.4300205.9500204.4700202.9900μ = 206.7432max 208.9100min 202.9900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $203.89
Funding direction · live
Long fee 40.0%Short fee 60.0%SHORT FEE60.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.971 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
40.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
60.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000201% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,086 · μ=363.4 · σ=279.0 · CV=0.77STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1302545087621,015μ = 3631,015.36350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1015 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
674ms
$mark $
$203.88
$mid $
$203.875
◉prev-day close
$208.22
Δ24h Δ %
-2.084%
$24h vol $
$1.88M
◐open interest $
$11.07M
%funding (1h)
0.000201%
%funding (yr)
+1.76%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=206.7432 · σ=2.1276 · range [202.9900, 208.9100] · R²=0.492▼ FALLING -1.85%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 203.8900208.9100207.4300205.9500204.4700202.9900μ = 206.7432max 208.9100min 202.9900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $203.8800 · 24h -2.08% · range $[202.9900, 208.9100]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [202.2900, 209.6100] · σ=2.1276 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -1.64%CLOSE 203.8900 vs OPEN 207.3000 (-1.64%)&#9660; CLOSE 203.8900209.6100207.7800205.9500204.1200202.2900μ close = 206.7432O207.300 H208.330 L207.130 C207.730 (+0.21%)O207.300 H208.330 L207.130 C207.730 (+0.21%)O207.900 H208.810 L207.610 C208.070 (+0.08%)O207.900 H208.810 L207.610 C208.070 (+0.08%)O208.110 H209.120 L207.880 C208.760 (+0.31%)O208.110 H209.120 L207.880 C208.760 (+0.31%)O208.770 H209.530 L207.670 C208.570 (-0.10%)O208.770 H209.530 L207.670 C208.570 (-0.10%)O208.620 H209.160 L208.120 C208.600 (-0.01%)O208.620 H209.160 L208.120 C208.600 (-0.01%)O208.680 H208.680 L206.370 C206.930 (-0.84%)O208.680 H208.680 L206.370 C206.930 (-0.84%)O206.950 H207.580 L205.810 C206.270 (-0.33%)O206.950 H207.580 L205.810 C206.270 (-0.33%)O206.160 H207.580 L206.100 C206.710 (+0.27%)O206.160 H207.580 L206.100 C206.710 (+0.27%)O206.750 H207.820 L206.670 C207.380 (+0.30%)O206.750 H207.820 L206.670 C207.380 (+0.30%)O207.310 H207.660 L206.910 C207.640 (+0.16%)O207.310 H207.660 L206.910 C207.640 (+0.16%)O207.610 H209.610 L206.990 C208.910 (+0.63%)O207.610 H209.610 L206.990 C208.910 (+0.63%)O208.900 H209.200 L208.310 C208.360 (-0.26%)O208.900 H209.200 L208.310 C208.360 (-0.26%)O208.260 H209.200 L208.020 C208.610 (+0.17%)O208.260 H209.200 L208.020 C208.610 (+0.17%)O208.600 H208.870 L207.940 C208.350 (-0.12%)O208.600 H208.870 L207.940 C208.350 (-0.12%)O208.350 H209.310 L207.750 C208.780 (+0.21%)O208.350 H209.310 L207.750 C208.780 (+0.21%)O208.670 H209.250 L208.130 C208.340 (-0.16%)O208.670 H209.250 L208.130 C208.340 (-0.16%)O208.300 H208.960 L208.210 C208.700 (+0.19%)O208.300 H208.960 L208.210 C208.700 (+0.19%)O208.710 H208.880 L206.500 C206.570 (-1.03%)O208.710 H208.880 L206.500 C206.570 (-1.03%)-1.4%O206.470 H206.720 L203.050 C203.520 (-1.43%)O206.470 H206.720 L203.050 C203.520 (-1.43%)O203.540 H204.350 L202.820 C202.990 (-0.27%)O203.540 H204.350 L202.820 C202.990 (-0.27%)O202.960 H203.580 L202.290 C203.380 (+0.21%)O202.960 H203.580 L202.290 C203.380 (+0.21%)O203.440 H204.210 L203.130 C203.430 (-0.00%)O203.440 H204.210 L203.130 C203.430 (-0.00%)O203.560 H204.630 L202.390 C204.350 (+0.39%)O203.560 H204.630 L202.390 C204.350 (+0.39%)O204.360 H204.520 L203.480 C203.740 (-0.30%)O204.360 H204.520 L203.480 C203.740 (-0.30%)O203.700 H204.220 L203.570 C203.890 (+0.09%)O203.700 H204.220 L203.570 C203.890 (+0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,086 · μ=363.4 · σ=279.0 · CV=0.77STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1302545087621,015μ = 363112.727 · 11.1% peak112.727 · 11.1% peak260.91 · 25.7% peak260.91 · 25.7% peak370.328 · 36.5% peak370.328 · 36.5% peak1,015.3631,015.363 · 100.0% peak1,015.363 · 100.0% peak228.92 · 22.5% peak228.92 · 22.5% peak803.71 · 79.2% peak803.71 · 79.2% peak249.03 · 24.5% peak249.03 · 24.5% peak391.634 · 38.6% peak391.634 · 38.6% peak132.878 · 13.1% peak132.878 · 13.1% peak39.376 · 3.9% peak39.376 · 3.9% peak555.577 · 54.7% peak555.577 · 54.7% peak262.77 · 25.9% peak262.77 · 25.9% peak295.267 · 29.1% peak295.267 · 29.1% peak503.155 · 49.6% peak503.155 · 49.6% peak118.403 · 11.7% peak118.403 · 11.7% peak152.65 · 15.0% peak152.65 · 15.0% peak139.147 · 13.7% peak139.147 · 13.7% peak676.263 · 66.6% peak676.263 · 66.6% peak883.574 · 87.0% peak883.574 · 87.0% peak292.842 · 28.8% peak292.842 · 28.8% peak253.7 · 25.0% peak253.7 · 25.0% peak321.527 · 31.7% peak321.527 · 31.7% peak835.532 · 82.3% peak835.532 · 82.3% peak150.809 · 14.9% peak150.809 · 14.9% peak39.895 · 3.9% peak39.895 · 3.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9086 · peak 1015 · CV 0.77

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0046 · skew=-1.30 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.36 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-140.01bpbin -140.01bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -140.01bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-122.53bp 1-105.06bpbin -105.06bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -105.06bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-87.58bpbin -87.58bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -87.58bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-70.10bp-52.63bp 2-35.15bpbin -35.15bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -35.15bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 5-17.67bpbin -17.67bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin -17.67bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 3-0.19bpbin -0.19bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -0.19bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 717.28bpbin 17.28bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 17.28bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 234.76bpbin 34.76bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 34.76bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 252.24bpbin 52.24bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 52.24bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.40 · kurt=1.87 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$203.88
Mid price
$203.875
24h change
-2.08%
Mark–mid spread
0.25 bps
Prev-day close
$208.22

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.64)
μ MEAN206.7432$95% CI: [205.9092$, 207.5772$]
σ STD DEV2.1276$σ² = 4.527 · CV = 1.03%
med MEDIAN207.6400$Q₁ 204.3500$ · Q₃ 208.5700$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.9200$ · IQR 4.2200$ (1.349σ→2.8701$)
min 202.9900$Q₁ 204.3500$med 207.6400$Q₃ 208.5700$max 208.9100$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.643left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.310platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.42
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.78
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.35
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.077744%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.164
σᵣ STD / h0.474145%σ²ᵣ = 0.225×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.10×
σ ANNUALISED44.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.474%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.35negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.09downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.49left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.63leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.72
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-681.04%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.99%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.993%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.381%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.257%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.83%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.993%VaR₉₉−1.381%ES₉₅−1.257%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK20891.00$
−2.83% drawdown over 9h
20299.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.92% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.221 · within band
Bollinger upper
$210.7397
Bollinger MA
$206.3425
Bollinger lower
$201.9453

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.280within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.007lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.951strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.716significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.951
H = 0.951STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.280k=2+0.007k=3-0.234k=4-0.250k=5-0.1590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.72)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.72)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.88M
Open interest (USD)
$11.07M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.000201%
Funding (annualised)
+1.76%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.61% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BEARISH -1.87%BEST+0.61%21hWORST-1.49%05hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.32% · Σ -2.54%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.67%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.87%+0.57%-2.31%0.16% · 12h0.16% · 12h0.16%12h0.33% · 13h0.33% · 13h0.33%13h-0.09% · 14h-0.09% · 14h-0.09%14h0.01% · 15h0.01% · 15h0.01%15h-0.80% · 16h-0.80% · 16h-0.80%16h-0.32% · 17h-0.32% · 17h-0.32%17h0.21% · 18h0.21% · 18h0.21%18h0.32% · 19h0.32% · 19h0.32%19h0.13% · 20h0.13% · 20h0.13%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h★ BEST-0.26% · 22h-0.26% · 22h-0.26%22h0.12% · 23h0.12% · 23h0.12%23h-0.12% · 00h-0.12% · 00h-0.12%00h0.21% · 01h0.21% · 01h0.21%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h0.17% · 03h0.17% · 03h0.17%03h-1.03% · 04h-1.03% · 04h-1.03%04h-1.49% · 05h-1.49% · 05h-1.49%05h▼ WORST-0.26% · 06h-0.26% · 06h-0.26%06h0.19% · 07h0.19% · 07h0.19%07h0.02% · 08h0.02% · 08h0.02%08h0.45% · 09h0.45% · 09h0.45%09h-0.30% · 10h-0.30% · 10h-0.30%10h0.07% · 11h0.07% · 11h0.07%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.67%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 0.61% · worst -1.49% · typical |Δ| 0.329%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.87%)FINAL-1.87%MAX DD-2.85%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.56%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9813 · peak 1.0056 · range [0.9769, 1.0056]1.00560.9769break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0056UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.85% · moderate0%-2.85%▼ TROUGH -2.85%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.85%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.20%bar 4-10 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.85%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9813 (-1.87%) · max DD -2.85% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-12.56 · σ=36.58MIXED EDGELAST 10.04 (+0.62σ vs μ)61.4930.750.00-30.75-61.49μ = -12.56-27.33-27.33-24.96-24.96-25.34-25.34-16.61-16.614.574.5730.2630.2661.4961.4939.4839.4834.8334.8315.9815.98-7.57-7.57-29.03-29.03-55.85-55.85-59.71-59.71-60.27-60.27-53.12-53.12-43.64-43.64-31.77-31.7710.0410.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 10.038 · range [-60.27, 61.49] · μ -12.555 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.6582 · σ=16.3998 · range [19.3885, 70.4717] · R²=0.242▼ FALLING -29.88%σ EXTREME 37.56%LAST 26.417570.471757.700944.930132.159319.3885μ = 43.6582max 70.4717min 19.3885dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.42% · range [19.39%, 70.47%] · μ 43.66% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-0.071 · σ=0.358CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.510 (-1.23σ vs μ)0.7110.3560.000-0.356-0.711μ = -0.0710.2340.2340.0030.0030.1600.1600.2700.2700.2850.285-0.321-0.321-0.467-0.467-0.381-0.381-0.457-0.457-0.512-0.512-0.711-0.711-0.290-0.2900.3030.3030.1550.1550.1410.1410.2070.2070.4300.4300.1130.113-0.510-0.510v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.510 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
15.8262
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7356
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8312
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5445
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0317
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.5469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.471 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.34e-5 · top T=6.00h (26.9%) · top-3 cover 66.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.6e-55.7e-53.8e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.78e-5 · 24.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.78e-5 · 24.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.53e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.53e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.55e-5 · 26.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.55e-5 · 26.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.21e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.21e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.14e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.14e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.56e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.56e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.17e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.17e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.30e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.30e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 15.6% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 26.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.804e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-131.61×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -55.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.024
annualized -55.90
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -53.76σ ann 41% · Sortino -36.41 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6451%-5151%-3851%-2551%-1251%49%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)40.8%Ann. vol σ-5375.5%Sharpe (ann)-3641.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
194.295198.925203.555208.185212.815217.445t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
674ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
73984918cc337467b7b51281010153368d9743d1e55203fc1eb2734bf33a46ab · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$3.62K
bid $2.46K · ask $1.16K
Depth within 5bp
$38.32K
bid $28.48K · ask $9.84K
Depth within 10bp
$94.39K
bid $59.53K · ask $34.86K
Depth within 50bp
$166.39K
bid $115.63K · ask $50.76K
Mid price
203.875000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.391
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.523
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bch/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K203.890.74bp203.891FILLED
BUY$10.00K203.953.63bp203.987FILLED
BUY$100.00K204.048.01bp204.1420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K203.860.74bp203.861FILLED
SELL$10.00K203.841.84bp203.824FILLED
SELL$100.00K203.727.75bp203.6118FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+2.009e-6
0.00020% / hr
Annualised APR
1.761%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
207.4d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
207.4d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-1.761%207.4d5.68y
SHORTRECEIVE1.761%207.4d5.68y

/api/asset/hl-bch/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$208.00–$209.00★11$3.90K
$207.00–$208.003$285
$206.00–$207.004$2.12K
$204.00–$205.001$836
$203.00–$204.005$1.65K
$202.00–$203.001$293

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bch/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.112 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.98K
real volume
Sell weight
$4.99K
real volume
Net delta
$1.01K
sellers net
Imbalance
-11.22%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bch/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 2.77% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h208.78→202.992.773%4
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h208.76→206.271.193%3

/api/asset/hl-bch/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.84%
σ per bar = 0.000178
Mean return (annualised)
-2195.59%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-53.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.20%
peak 208.96 → trough 202.27 over 2240 bars

/api/asset/hl-bch/risk · same metrics, JSON