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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AVNT

AVNT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-avnt · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.57%
realized vol (ann.)
94.40%
max drawdown
3.36%
sharpe
-44.80
ulcer index
2.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1902.53
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1365.04
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.57%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.57%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-avnt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH240ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.107
24h Δ · live
-4.57%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
AVNT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1094 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.1056, 0.1126] · R²=0.822▼ FALLING -5.05%σ NORMAL 2.24%LAST 0.10670.11260.11090.10910.10730.1056μ = 0.1094max 0.1126min 0.1056dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.11
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,921,931 · μ=116877.2 · σ=107696.4 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160120,140240,281360,421480,561μ = 116877480,56150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 480561 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
240ms
$mark $
$0.1067
$mid $
$0.1067
◉prev-day close
$0.1118
Δ24h Δ %
-4.568%
$24h vol $
$314.96k
◐open interest $
$579.75k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1094 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.1056, 0.1126] · R²=0.822▼ FALLING -5.05%σ NORMAL 2.24%LAST 0.10670.11260.11090.10910.10730.1056μ = 0.1094max 0.1126min 0.1056dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1067 · 24h -4.57% · range $[0.1056, 0.1126]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1050, 0.1139] · σ=0.0025 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -5.25%CLOSE 0.1067 vs OPEN 0.1126 (-5.25%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.10670.11390.11160.10940.10720.1050μ close = 0.1094O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.21%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.21%)O0.112 H0.114 L0.112 C0.113 (+0.16%)O0.112 H0.114 L0.112 C0.113 (+0.16%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.56%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.56%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.37%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.37%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (-0.22%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (-0.22%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (+0.74%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (+0.74%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.85%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.85%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (+0.42%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.112 (+0.42%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.110 C0.111 (-1.09%)O0.112 H0.112 L0.110 C0.111 (-1.09%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.110 C0.111 (+0.32%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.110 C0.111 (+0.32%)O0.111 H0.111 L0.110 C0.110 (-0.32%)O0.111 H0.111 L0.110 C0.110 (-0.32%)O0.110 H0.111 L0.110 C0.111 (+0.24%)O0.110 H0.111 L0.110 C0.111 (+0.24%)O0.111 H0.111 L0.110 C0.110 (-0.85%)O0.111 H0.111 L0.110 C0.110 (-0.85%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.42%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.42%)O0.110 H0.111 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.06%)O0.110 H0.111 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.06%)-4.1%O0.110 H0.110 L0.105 C0.106 (-4.10%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.105 C0.106 (-4.10%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.53%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (+0.53%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.74%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.74%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (-0.09%)O0.107 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (-0.09%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.107 C0.108 (+1.27%)O0.107 H0.108 L0.107 C0.108 (+1.27%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.21%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.21%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.106 C0.106 (-1.93%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.106 C0.106 (-1.93%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.66%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.105 C0.106 (-0.66%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.48%)O0.106 H0.106 L0.106 C0.106 (+0.48%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.54%)O0.106 H0.107 L0.106 C0.107 (+0.54%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,921,931 · μ=116877.2 · σ=107696.4 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160120,140240,281360,421480,561μ = 11687768,822 · 14.3% peak68,822 · 14.3% peak83,276 · 17.3% peak83,276 · 17.3% peak86,893 · 18.1% peak86,893 · 18.1% peak58,534 · 12.2% peak58,534 · 12.2% peak57,614 · 12.0% peak57,614 · 12.0% peak70,513 · 14.7% peak70,513 · 14.7% peak26,138 · 5.4% peak26,138 · 5.4% peak46,638 · 9.7% peak46,638 · 9.7% peak178,675 · 37.2% peak178,675 · 37.2% peak61,085 · 12.7% peak61,085 · 12.7% peak59,223 · 12.3% peak59,223 · 12.3% peak94,431 · 19.7% peak94,431 · 19.7% peak71,935 · 15.0% peak71,935 · 15.0% peak77,911 · 16.2% peak77,911 · 16.2% peak393,147 · 81.8% peak393,147 · 81.8% peak480,561480,561 · 100.0% peak480,561 · 100.0% peak95,930 · 20.0% peak95,930 · 20.0% peak170,081 · 35.4% peak170,081 · 35.4% peak46,915 · 9.8% peak46,915 · 9.8% peak135,995 · 28.3% peak135,995 · 28.3% peak216,577 · 45.1% peak216,577 · 45.1% peak127,348 · 26.5% peak127,348 · 26.5% peak116,910 · 24.3% peak116,910 · 24.3% peak70,127 · 14.6% peak70,127 · 14.6% peak26,652 · 5.5% peak26,652 · 5.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2921931 · peak 480561 · CV 0.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0019 · σ=0.0108 · skew=-2.13 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.36 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 1-420.51bpbin -420.51bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -420.51bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-373.99bp-327.46bp-280.94bp-234.41bp 1-187.89bpbin -187.89bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -187.89bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-141.36bp 3-94.83bpbin -94.83bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -94.83bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 4-48.31bpbin -48.31bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -48.31bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 4-1.78bpbin -1.78bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -1.78bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 844.74bpbin 44.74bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 44.74bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 391.27bpbin 91.27bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 91.27bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.31 · kurt=6.37 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.80σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1067
Mid price
$0.1067
24h change
-4.57%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1118

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.60)
μ MEAN0.1094$95% CI: [0.1084$, 0.1104$]
σ STD DEV0.0025$σ² = 0.060×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.24%
med MEDIAN0.1104$Q₁ 0.1068$ · Q₃ 0.1115$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0071$ · IQR 0.0048$ (1.349σ→0.0033$)
min 0.1056$Q₁ 0.1068$med 0.1104$Q₃ 0.1115$max 0.1126$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.298approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.596platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.70
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.89
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-17.95
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.215752%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.192
σᵣ STD / h1.124929%σ²ᵣ = 1.265×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.21×
σ ANNUALISED105.29%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.125%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-17.95negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.02downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.47left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂8.23leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.73
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1889.99%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.66%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.663%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.823%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.100%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.29%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.663%VaR₉₉−3.823%ES₉₅−3.100%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK11.26$
−6.29% drawdown over 14h
10.56$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.86× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.30× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.71% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.276 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1133
Bollinger MA
$0.1087
Bollinger lower
$0.1042

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.198within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.229lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.818strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.291significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.818
H = 0.818STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.198k=2-0.229k=3+0.029k=4-0.178k=5-0.0840+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.29)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.29)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$314.96k
Open interest (USD)
$579.75k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.54x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.15% · worst -4.44% · typical |Δ| 0.72%MILD BEARISH -5.18%BEST+1.15%11hWORST-4.44%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.72%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.18%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.71% · Σ -5.70%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.71%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.19%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.18%+0.25%-6.24%0.25% · 17h0.25% · 17h0.25%17h-0.53% · 18h-0.53% · 18h-0.53%18h-0.33% · 19h-0.33% · 19h-0.33%19h-0.13% · 20h-0.13% · 20h-0.13%20h0.69% · 21h0.69% · 21h0.69%21h-0.89% · 22h-0.89% · 22h-0.89%22h0.39% · 23h0.39% · 23h0.39%23h-1.10% · 00h-1.10% · 00h-1.10%00h0.40% · 01h0.40% · 01h0.40%01h-0.48% · 02h-0.48% · 02h-0.48%02h0.26% · 03h0.26% · 03h0.26%03h-0.84% · 04h-0.84% · 04h-0.84%04h0.41% · 05h0.41% · 05h0.41%05h0.09% · 06h0.09% · 06h0.09%06h-4.44% · 07h-4.44% · 07h-4.44%07h▼ WORST0.53% · 08h0.53% · 08h0.53%08h0.74% · 09h0.74% · 09h0.74%09h-0.12% · 10h-0.12% · 10h-0.12%10h1.15% · 11h1.15% · 11h1.15%11h★ BEST0.14% · 12h0.14% · 12h0.14%12h-1.76% · 13h-1.76% · 13h-1.76%13h-0.57% · 14h-0.57% · 14h-0.57%14h0.60% · 15h0.60% · 15h0.60%15h0.36% · 16h0.36% · 16h0.36%16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.71%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.15% · worst -4.44% · typical |Δ| 0.716%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.19%FINAL-5.19%MAX DD-6.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9481 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9383, 1.0025]1.00250.9383break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.40% · significant0%-6.40%▼ TROUGH -6.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.40%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9481 (-5.19%) · max DD -6.40% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-19.69 · σ=13.35UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -1.28 (+1.38σ vs μ)42.6421.320.00-21.32-42.64μ = -19.69-26.03-26.03-21.11-21.11-30.32-30.32-13.29-13.29-20.31-20.31-32.59-32.59-32.00-32.00-31.53-31.53-4.91-4.91-42.64-42.64-32.56-32.56-27.83-27.83-22.08-22.08-15.57-15.57-15.19-15.1910.2510.25-6.44-6.44-8.70-8.70-1.28-1.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -1.284 · range [-42.64, 10.25] · μ -19.691 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=107.1054 · σ=55.7411 · range [48.4213, 192.7231] · R²=0.273▲ RISING +82.12%σ EXTREME 52.04%LAST 95.9062192.7231156.6477120.572284.496848.4213μ = 107.1054max 192.7231min 48.4213dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 95.91% · range [48.42%, 192.72%] · μ 107.11% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.361 · σ=0.327MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.145 (+1.55σ vs μ)0.7870.3940.000-0.394-0.787μ = -0.361-0.431-0.431-0.541-0.541-0.604-0.604-0.741-0.741-0.787-0.787-0.781-0.781-0.752-0.752-0.679-0.679-0.645-0.645-0.109-0.109-0.378-0.378-0.258-0.258-0.209-0.209-0.181-0.181-0.065-0.065-0.028-0.0280.1200.1200.0640.0640.1450.145v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.145 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
92.0564
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8012
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5806
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2618
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6446
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0054
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1921
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.603 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.22e-4 · top T=3.00h (22.4%) · top-3 cover 51.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.3e-42.5e-41.6e-48.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.39e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.39e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.85e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.85e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.69e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.69e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.28e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.28e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.05e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.05e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.23e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.23e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.63e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.63e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 1.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 22.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.463e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 12.34× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
12.34×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 9.28400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 9.28
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.13%
VaR 95%5%
0.14%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.31%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.90×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.12×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 12.01σ ann 97% · Sortino 8.56 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%288%577%865%1153%1441%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)97.4%Ann. vol σ1201.2%Sharpe (ann)855.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1010.1030.1060.1090.1110.114t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:20:19 UTC
Snapshot age
240ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:20:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
226f962a0d57be870103d9583ca6b138c2bd761e7b8ef0c4f7940d3e10b6834a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,067.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.37

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.37K
bid $829 · ask $539
Depth within 10bp
$11.57K
bid $7.59K · ask $3.98K
Depth within 50bp
$41.07K
bid $23.03K · ask $18.03K
Mid price
0.106655
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.123
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.572
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avnt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1067084.95bp0.1067404FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10679012.68bp0.10688013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.10685118.36bp0.10700020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1066173.60bp0.1066002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1065698.07bp0.1065109FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.10649015.46bp0.10635020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-avnt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.92M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-avnt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.081 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.54M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.31M
real volume
Net delta
$231.62K
buyers net
Imbalance
8.12%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-avnt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 4.34% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z2.0h0.110350→0.1055604.341%3
#22026-06-14 13:00:00Z2.0h0.108160→0.1056702.302%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.112300→0.1104401.656%3

/api/asset/hl-avnt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
97.38%
σ per bar = 0.000425
Mean return (annualised)
1169.76%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
12.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.65%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.11 over 1434 bars

/api/asset/hl-avnt/risk · same metrics, JSON