Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ATOM

ATOM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-atom · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.73%
realized vol (ann.)
36.10%
max drawdown
0.91%
sharpe
-34.28
ulcer index
0.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3132.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.86%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1430.44
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.73%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.73%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-atom/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.929
24h Δ · live
-2.73%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
ATOM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.9516 · σ=0.0166 · range [1.9287, 1.9835] · R²=0.866▼ FALLING -2.73%σ LOW 0.85%LAST 1.92941.98351.96981.95611.94241.9287μ = 1.9516max 1.9835min 1.9287dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.93
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=173,901 · μ=6956.0 · σ=5962.2 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1307,47914,95922,43829,917μ = 695629,917.2850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 29917 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.2s
$mark $
$1.9287
$mid $
$1.9287
◉prev-day close
$1.9828
Δ24h Δ %
-2.728%
$24h vol $
$337.86k
◐open interest $
$2.83M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.9516 · σ=0.0166 · range [1.9287, 1.9835] · R²=0.866▼ FALLING -2.73%σ LOW 0.85%LAST 1.92941.98351.96981.95611.94241.9287μ = 1.9516max 1.9835min 1.9287dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.9287 · 24h -2.73% · range $[1.9287, 1.9835]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [1.9217, 1.9892] · σ=0.0166 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -2.57%CLOSE 1.9294 vs OPEN 1.9802 (-2.57%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.92941.98921.97231.95541.93861.9217μ close = 1.9516O1.980 H1.986 L1.980 C1.984 (+0.17%)O1.980 H1.986 L1.980 C1.984 (+0.17%)O1.984 H1.989 L1.980 C1.982 (-0.13%)O1.984 H1.989 L1.980 C1.982 (-0.13%)O1.984 H1.986 L1.971 C1.973 (-0.56%)O1.984 H1.986 L1.971 C1.973 (-0.56%)O1.973 H1.975 L1.969 C1.974 (+0.06%)O1.973 H1.975 L1.969 C1.974 (+0.06%)O1.974 H1.980 L1.972 C1.975 (+0.06%)O1.974 H1.980 L1.972 C1.975 (+0.06%)O1.974 H1.975 L1.956 C1.965 (-0.47%)O1.974 H1.975 L1.956 C1.965 (-0.47%)O1.966 H1.969 L1.959 C1.964 (-0.15%)O1.966 H1.969 L1.959 C1.964 (-0.15%)O1.963 H1.965 L1.952 C1.956 (-0.36%)O1.963 H1.965 L1.952 C1.956 (-0.36%)O1.956 H1.967 L1.954 C1.959 (+0.16%)O1.956 H1.967 L1.954 C1.959 (+0.16%)O1.960 H1.962 L1.952 C1.954 (-0.32%)O1.960 H1.962 L1.952 C1.954 (-0.32%)O1.954 H1.968 L1.947 C1.958 (+0.21%)O1.954 H1.968 L1.947 C1.958 (+0.21%)O1.959 H1.960 L1.942 C1.943 (-0.82%)O1.959 H1.960 L1.942 C1.943 (-0.82%)O1.942 H1.951 L1.937 C1.948 (+0.31%)O1.942 H1.951 L1.937 C1.948 (+0.31%)O1.947 H1.947 L1.933 C1.937 (-0.53%)O1.947 H1.947 L1.933 C1.937 (-0.53%)O1.938 H1.944 L1.935 C1.942 (+0.18%)O1.938 H1.944 L1.935 C1.942 (+0.18%)O1.941 H1.953 L1.941 C1.950 (+0.45%)O1.941 H1.953 L1.941 C1.950 (+0.45%)O1.951 H1.955 L1.948 C1.948 (-0.14%)O1.951 H1.955 L1.948 C1.948 (-0.14%)-1.0%O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.929 (-1.00%)O1.948 H1.948 L1.922 C1.929 (-1.00%)O1.929 H1.938 L1.924 C1.937 (+0.40%)O1.929 H1.938 L1.924 C1.937 (+0.40%)O1.935 H1.955 L1.935 C1.942 (+0.39%)O1.935 H1.955 L1.935 C1.942 (+0.39%)O1.941 H1.943 L1.934 C1.938 (-0.19%)O1.941 H1.943 L1.934 C1.938 (-0.19%)O1.939 H1.944 L1.933 C1.935 (-0.18%)O1.939 H1.944 L1.933 C1.935 (-0.18%)O1.936 H1.945 L1.935 C1.938 (+0.09%)O1.936 H1.945 L1.935 C1.938 (+0.09%)O1.938 H1.942 L1.934 C1.934 (-0.22%)O1.938 H1.942 L1.934 C1.934 (-0.22%)O1.936 H1.936 L1.928 C1.929 (-0.34%)O1.936 H1.936 L1.928 C1.929 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=173,901 · μ=6956.0 · σ=5962.2 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1307,47914,95922,43829,917μ = 69562,245.33 · 7.5% peak2,245.33 · 7.5% peak2,341.75 · 7.8% peak2,341.75 · 7.8% peak4,588.27 · 15.3% peak4,588.27 · 15.3% peak2,651.78 · 8.9% peak2,651.78 · 8.9% peak1,960.31 · 6.6% peak1,960.31 · 6.6% peak9,294.07 · 31.1% peak9,294.07 · 31.1% peak5,849.25 · 19.6% peak5,849.25 · 19.6% peak3,904.89 · 13.1% peak3,904.89 · 13.1% peak5,253.65 · 17.6% peak5,253.65 · 17.6% peak29,917.2829,917.28 · 100.0% peak29,917.28 · 100.0% peak10,358.72 · 34.6% peak10,358.72 · 34.6% peak3,043.92 · 10.2% peak3,043.92 · 10.2% peak9,190.44 · 30.7% peak9,190.44 · 30.7% peak14,974.76 · 50.1% peak14,974.76 · 50.1% peak10,684.62 · 35.7% peak10,684.62 · 35.7% peak7,343.99 · 24.5% peak7,343.99 · 24.5% peak3,282.6 · 11.0% peak3,282.6 · 11.0% peak12,572.43 · 42.0% peak12,572.43 · 42.0% peak7,628.13 · 25.5% peak7,628.13 · 25.5% peak4,008.84 · 13.4% peak4,008.84 · 13.4% peak3,573.97 · 11.9% peak3,573.97 · 11.9% peak4,481.14 · 15.0% peak4,481.14 · 15.0% peak7,532.79 · 25.2% peak7,532.79 · 25.2% peak5,817.99 · 19.4% peak5,817.99 · 19.4% peak1,400.11 · 4.7% peak1,400.11 · 4.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 173901 · peak 29917 · CV 0.86

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0035 · skew=-0.60 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.24 (mesokurtic)43210 1-95.14bpbin -95.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -95.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-83.20bpbin -83.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -83.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-71.27bp 1-59.33bpbin -59.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -59.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-47.39bpbin -47.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -47.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-35.45bpbin -35.45bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -35.45bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-23.51bpbin -23.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -23.51bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-11.58bpbin -11.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -11.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 20.36bpbin 0.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 0.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 212.30bpbin 12.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 12.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 424.24bpbin 24.24bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 24.24bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 236.18bpbin 36.18bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 36.18bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.60 · kurt=-0.23 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.9287
Mid price
$1.9287
24h change
-2.73%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$1.9828

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.12)
μ MEAN1.9516$95% CI: [1.9451$, 1.9581$]
σ STD DEV0.0166$σ² = 2.756×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.85%
med MEDIAN1.9483$Q₁ 1.9377$ · Q₃ 1.9635$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0548$ · IQR 0.0258$ (1.349σ→0.0224$)
min 1.9287$Q₁ 1.9377$med 1.9483$Q₃ 1.9635$max 1.9835$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.440approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.120platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-28.76
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.115225%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.307
σᵣ STD / h0.375030%σ²ᵣ = 0.141×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.25×
σ ANNUALISED35.10%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.375%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-28.76negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.77downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.64left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.01mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.83
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1009.37%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.77%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.766%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.962%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.905%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.76%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.766%VaR₉₉−0.962%ES₉₅−0.905%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK198.35$
−2.76% drawdown over 17h
192.87$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.84% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
31.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.146 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.9675
Bollinger MA
$1.9452
Bollinger lower
$1.9229

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.409negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.087lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.770strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-12.214significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.770
H = 0.770STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.409k=2-0.087k=3-0.142k=4+0.356k=5-0.3070+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.95very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$337.86k
Open interest (USD)
$2.83M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.42% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -2.77%BEST+0.42%02hWORST-1.01%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.77%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.39%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.77%+0.00%-2.80%-0.09% · 12h-0.09% · 12h-0.09%12h-0.46% · 13h-0.46% · 13h-0.46%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.06% · 15h0.06% · 15h0.06%15h-0.51% · 16h-0.51% · 16h-0.51%16h-0.08% · 17h-0.08% · 17h-0.08%17h-0.39% · 18h-0.39% · 18h-0.39%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.29% · 20h-0.29% · 20h-0.29%20h0.25% · 21h0.25% · 21h0.25%21h-0.80% · 22h-0.80% · 22h-0.80%22h0.26% · 23h0.26% · 23h0.26%23h-0.58% · 00h-0.58% · 00h-0.58%00h0.25% · 01h0.25% · 01h0.25%01h0.42% · 02h0.42% · 02h0.42%02h★ BEST-0.08% · 03h-0.08% · 03h-0.08%03h-1.01% · 04h-1.01% · 04h-1.01%04h▼ WORST0.41% · 05h0.41% · 05h0.41%05h0.27% · 06h0.27% · 06h0.27%06h-0.22% · 07h-0.22% · 07h-0.22%07h-0.13% · 08h-0.13% · 08h-0.13%08h0.13% · 09h0.13% · 09h0.13%09h-0.21% · 10h-0.21% · 10h-0.21%10h-0.22% · 11h-0.22% · 11h-0.22%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.53%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.42% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.306%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.74%)FINAL-2.74%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9726 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9722, 1.0000]1.00000.9722break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.78%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9726 (-2.74%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-27.84 · σ=23.69UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -27.73 (+0.00σ vs μ)78.2739.130.00-39.13-78.27μ = -27.84-62.60-62.60-78.27-78.27-39.13-39.13-60.72-60.72-42.72-42.72-45.39-45.39-28.78-28.78-33.28-33.28-29.79-29.79-5.71-5.71-16.17-16.17-20.20-20.20-15.34-15.347.777.77-5.74-5.74-23.49-23.49-16.68-16.6815.0515.05-27.73-27.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -27.730 · range [-78.27, 15.05] · μ -27.838 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.7942 · σ=11.8807 · range [19.8831, 54.8651] · R²=0.164▼ FALLING -15.87%σ EXTREME 30.62%LAST 19.883154.865146.119637.374128.628619.8831μ = 38.7942max 54.8651min 19.8831dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 19.88% · range [19.88%, 54.87%] · μ 38.79% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.396 · σ=0.249MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.267 (+0.52σ vs μ)0.8350.4180.000-0.418-0.835μ = -0.396-0.461-0.461-0.393-0.393-0.380-0.380-0.693-0.693-0.470-0.470-0.587-0.587-0.758-0.758-0.762-0.762-0.835-0.835-0.469-0.469-0.329-0.329-0.099-0.099-0.269-0.269-0.096-0.096-0.224-0.224-0.276-0.276-0.255-0.2550.0940.094-0.267-0.267v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.267 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.6170
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4455
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.4120
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0294
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6034
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8855
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0044
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9189
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0550
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.416 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.59e-5 · top T=2.00h (30.5%) · top-3 cover 62.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.8e-54.4e-52.9e-51.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.14e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.14e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.56e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.56e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.77e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.77e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.47e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.47e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.04e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.04e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.72e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.72e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.81e-5 · 30.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.81e-5 · 30.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.908e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-67.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.30400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -26.30
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.84σ ann 42% · Sortino -19.77 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3461%-2758%-2056%-1354%-651%51%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)42.5%Ann. vol σ-2884.0%Sharpe (ann)-1976.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.8471.8841.9221.9601.9972.035t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:21:57 UTC
Snapshot age
4.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
66f010eb295134b0469150366a6da370ad16c83917d3d3c69194b47eceb6c9bf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,493HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.29K
bid $260 · ask $2.03K
Depth within 10bp
$3.59K
bid $916 · ask $2.68K
Depth within 50bp
$32.31K
bid $12.08K · ask $20.23K
Mid price
1.928700
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.250
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.782
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-atom/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.92943.47bp1.92942FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.931514.52bp1.932811FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.933323.61bp1.937320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.92737.05bp1.92648FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.925217.99bp1.924118FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.925019.22bp1.923520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-atom/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$173.90K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-atom/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.224 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$66.61K
real volume
Sell weight
$105.04K
real volume
Net delta
$38.43K
sellers net
Imbalance
-22.39%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
22.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-atom/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.15% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h1.9592→1.93671.148%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z1.0h1.9498→1.92871.082%2
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.9751→1.95580.977%3

/api/asset/hl-atom/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
42.49%
σ per bar = 0.000185
Mean return (annualised)
-1225.49%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.84
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.65%
peak 1.95 → trough 1.92 over 713 bars

/api/asset/hl-atom/risk · same metrics, JSON