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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APT

APT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-apt · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.49%
realized vol (ann.)
41.77%
max drawdown
1.08%
sharpe
3.80
ulcer index
0.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.44%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
308.10
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
163.36
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.49%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.49%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-apt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.663
24h Δ · live
-1.49%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
APT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6692 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.6603, 0.6791] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -1.43%σ LOW 0.73%LAST 0.66280.67910.67440.66970.66500.6603μ = 0.6692max 0.6791min 0.6603dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.66
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,224,573 · μ=48982.9 · σ=25154.2 · CV=0.51STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14027,31154,62181,932109,243μ = 48983109,242.8850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 109243 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.6626
$mid $
$0.6625
◉prev-day close
$0.6726
Δ24h Δ %
-1.487%
$24h vol $
$786.11k
◐open interest $
$4.45M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6692 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.6603, 0.6791] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -1.43%σ LOW 0.73%LAST 0.66280.67910.67440.66970.66500.6603μ = 0.6692max 0.6791min 0.6603dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6626 · 24h -1.49% · range $[0.6603, 0.6791]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.6577, 0.6844] · σ=0.0049 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=32%BEARISH -0.39%CLOSE 0.6628 vs OPEN 0.6654 (-0.39%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.66280.68440.67770.67100.66440.6577μ close = 0.66921.1%O0.665 H0.674 L0.664 C0.672 (+1.05%)O0.665 H0.674 L0.664 C0.672 (+1.05%)O0.672 H0.677 L0.671 C0.674 (+0.27%)O0.672 H0.677 L0.671 C0.674 (+0.27%)O0.674 H0.679 L0.673 C0.675 (+0.21%)O0.674 H0.679 L0.673 C0.675 (+0.21%)O0.676 H0.680 L0.673 C0.677 (+0.16%)O0.676 H0.680 L0.673 C0.677 (+0.16%)O0.677 H0.684 L0.676 C0.679 (+0.28%)O0.677 H0.684 L0.676 C0.679 (+0.28%)O0.679 H0.679 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.82%)O0.679 H0.679 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.82%)O0.674 H0.678 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.01%)O0.674 H0.678 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.01%)O0.673 H0.675 L0.669 C0.671 (-0.40%)O0.673 H0.675 L0.669 C0.671 (-0.40%)O0.671 H0.674 L0.669 C0.670 (-0.18%)O0.671 H0.674 L0.669 C0.670 (-0.18%)O0.670 H0.671 L0.667 C0.670 (+0.06%)O0.670 H0.671 L0.667 C0.670 (+0.06%)O0.671 H0.678 L0.668 C0.672 (+0.27%)O0.671 H0.678 L0.668 C0.672 (+0.27%)O0.673 H0.674 L0.669 C0.669 (-0.61%)O0.673 H0.674 L0.669 C0.669 (-0.61%)O0.669 H0.673 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.27%)O0.669 H0.673 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.27%)O0.671 H0.672 L0.668 C0.669 (-0.16%)O0.671 H0.672 L0.668 C0.669 (-0.16%)O0.669 H0.672 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.03%)O0.669 H0.672 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.03%)O0.670 H0.673 L0.667 C0.668 (-0.30%)O0.670 H0.673 L0.667 C0.668 (-0.30%)O0.667 H0.668 L0.664 C0.667 (+0.01%)O0.667 H0.668 L0.664 C0.667 (+0.01%)O0.667 H0.669 L0.662 C0.664 (-0.54%)O0.667 H0.669 L0.662 C0.664 (-0.54%)O0.663 H0.665 L0.658 C0.664 (+0.08%)O0.663 H0.665 L0.658 C0.664 (+0.08%)O0.664 H0.668 L0.659 C0.660 (-0.53%)O0.664 H0.668 L0.659 C0.660 (-0.53%)O0.661 H0.664 L0.660 C0.662 (+0.26%)O0.661 H0.664 L0.660 C0.662 (+0.26%)O0.662 H0.668 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.45%)O0.662 H0.668 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.45%)O0.665 H0.667 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.11%)O0.665 H0.667 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.11%)O0.666 H0.669 L0.664 C0.664 (-0.30%)O0.666 H0.669 L0.664 C0.664 (-0.30%)O0.664 H0.664 L0.663 C0.663 (-0.12%)O0.664 H0.664 L0.663 C0.663 (-0.12%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,224,573 · μ=48982.9 · σ=25154.2 · CV=0.51STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14027,31154,62181,932109,243μ = 4898371,975.98 · 65.9% peak71,975.98 · 65.9% peak109,242.88109,242.88 · 100.0% peak109,242.88 · 100.0% peak32,619.06 · 29.9% peak32,619.06 · 29.9% peak32,600.88 · 29.8% peak32,600.88 · 29.8% peak48,989.26 · 44.8% peak48,989.26 · 44.8% peak46,674.86 · 42.7% peak46,674.86 · 42.7% peak63,246.32 · 57.9% peak63,246.32 · 57.9% peak37,633.02 · 34.4% peak37,633.02 · 34.4% peak43,266.62 · 39.6% peak43,266.62 · 39.6% peak28,273.87 · 25.9% peak28,273.87 · 25.9% peak15,592.85 · 14.3% peak15,592.85 · 14.3% peak19,852.47 · 18.2% peak19,852.47 · 18.2% peak36,388.69 · 33.3% peak36,388.69 · 33.3% peak79,411.16 · 72.7% peak79,411.16 · 72.7% peak45,806.85 · 41.9% peak45,806.85 · 41.9% peak28,261.92 · 25.9% peak28,261.92 · 25.9% peak40,511.93 · 37.1% peak40,511.93 · 37.1% peak40,764.9 · 37.3% peak40,764.9 · 37.3% peak101,620.01 · 93.0% peak101,620.01 · 93.0% peak55,280.66 · 50.6% peak55,280.66 · 50.6% peak44,220.6 · 40.5% peak44,220.6 · 40.5% peak91,264.94 · 83.5% peak91,264.94 · 83.5% peak62,999.63 · 57.7% peak62,999.63 · 57.7% peak24,988.01 · 22.9% peak24,988.01 · 22.9% peak23,085.36 · 21.1% peak23,085.36 · 21.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1224573 · peak 109243 · CV 0.51

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0032 · skew=-0.55 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.63 (mesokurtic)65320 1-77.53bpbin -77.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -77.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-66.99bp 3-56.45bpbin -56.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -56.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-45.91bp 1-35.37bpbin -35.37bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -35.37bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-24.83bpbin -24.83bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -24.83bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-14.29bpbin -14.29bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -14.29bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 4-3.75bpbin -3.75bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -3.75bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 26.79bpbin 6.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 6.79bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 117.33bpbin 17.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 17.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 627.87bpbin 27.87bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 27.87bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 138.41bpbin 38.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 38.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.54 · kurt=-0.50 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.6626
Mid price
$0.6625
24h change
-1.49%
Mark–mid spread
1.51 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6726

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.6692$95% CI: [0.6673$, 0.6711$]
σ STD DEV0.0049$σ² = 0.238×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.73%
med MEDIAN0.6696$Q₁ 0.6653$ · Q₃ 0.6725$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0188$ · IQR 0.0072$ (1.349σ→0.0066$)
min 0.6603$Q₁ 0.6653$med 0.6696$Q₃ 0.6725$max 0.6791$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.071approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.931mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.85
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-16.87
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.059917%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.180
σᵣ STD / h0.332393%σ²ᵣ = 0.110×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.55×
σ ANNUALISED31.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.332%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-16.87negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.46downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.57left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.32mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.80
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-524.87%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.55%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.548%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.764%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.690%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.77%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.548%VaR₉₉−0.764%ES₉₅−0.690%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK67.91$
−2.77% drawdown over 15h
66.03$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.85% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.194 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.6754
Bollinger MA
$0.6676
Bollinger lower
$0.6598

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.149within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.126lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.852strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.633significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.852
H = 0.852STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.149k=2+0.126k=3-0.261k=4-0.077k=5-0.3190+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.63)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.63)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$786.11k
Open interest (USD)
$4.45M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.18x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.44% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.26%MILD BEARISH -1.44%BEST+0.44%08hWORST-0.83%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.44%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.29%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.44%+0.99%-1.82%0.24% · 12h0.24% · 12h0.24%12h0.16% · 13h0.16% · 13h0.16%13h0.31% · 14h0.31% · 14h0.31%14h0.28% · 15h0.28% · 15h0.28%15h-0.83% · 16h-0.83% · 16h-0.83%16h▼ WORST0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.40% · 18h-0.40% · 18h-0.40%18h-0.12% · 19h-0.12% · 19h-0.12%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h0.33% · 21h0.33% · 21h0.33%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h0.24% · 23h0.24% · 23h0.24%23h-0.13% · 00h-0.13% · 00h-0.13%00h0.01% · 01h0.01% · 01h0.01%01h-0.28% · 02h-0.28% · 02h-0.28%02h-0.07% · 03h-0.07% · 03h-0.07%03h-0.53% · 04h-0.53% · 04h-0.53%04h0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h-0.53% · 06h-0.53% · 06h-0.53%06h0.32% · 07h0.32% · 07h0.32%07h0.44% · 08h0.44% · 08h0.44%08h★ BEST0.03% · 09h0.03% · 09h0.03%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h-0.18% · 11h-0.18% · 11h-0.18%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.05%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 0.44% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.261%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.44%)FINAL-1.44%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9856 · peak 1.0100 · range [0.9819, 1.0100]1.01000.9819break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.78%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9856 (-1.44%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-27.98 · σ=24.81UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -6.51 (+0.87σ vs μ)84.8142.410.00-42.41-84.81μ = -27.985.885.88-16.51-16.51-27.28-27.28-40.79-40.79-37.81-37.81-34.28-34.28-20.59-20.59-9.60-9.60-2.98-2.98-18.40-18.40-45.89-45.89-45.74-45.74-73.85-73.85-84.81-84.81-50.91-50.91-13.77-13.77-9.72-9.722.002.00-6.51-6.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -6.513 · range [-84.81, 5.88] · μ -27.977 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.4766 · σ=6.3601 · range [19.5587, 42.0826] · R²=0.152▼ FALLING -16.69%σ EXTREME 19.58%LAST 33.795342.082636.451630.820725.189719.5587μ = 32.4766max 42.0826min 19.5587dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 33.80% · range [19.56%, 42.08%] · μ 32.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.345 · σ=0.277MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.048 (+1.42σ vs μ)0.7060.3530.000-0.353-0.706μ = -0.345-0.058-0.058-0.118-0.118-0.248-0.248-0.585-0.585-0.058-0.058-0.304-0.304-0.465-0.465-0.673-0.673-0.682-0.682-0.706-0.706-0.520-0.520-0.161-0.161-0.569-0.569-0.659-0.659-0.649-0.649-0.063-0.063-0.028-0.028-0.053-0.0530.0480.048v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.048 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4087
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4944
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6099
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2504
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7994
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8164
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8122
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0067
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3218
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7476
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.902 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.27e-5 · top T=2.00h (32.9%) · top-3 cover 62.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.0e-53.7e-52.5e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.18e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.18e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.57e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.57e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.76e-5 · 18.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.76e-5 · 18.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.92e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.92e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.50e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.50e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.23e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.23e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.27e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.27e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.91e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.91e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.43e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.43e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.00e-5 · 32.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.00e-5 · 32.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.520e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-40.44×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.27400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.27
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -775% · APY -100% · Sharpe -17.70σ ann 44% · Sortino -11.77 · n 4999
-2124%-1689%-1254%-818%-383%53%-775.1%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)43.8%Ann. vol σ-1770.4%Sharpe (ann)-1176.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6320.6450.6580.6710.6830.696t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:22:44 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:22:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5cda3e2c91b4b937d93406e39f835fb25c9c5cfdb3e3c0c33c6a0806567926b9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,503HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.83K
bid $1.04K · ask $5.79K
Depth within 10bp
$19.37K
bid $3.63K · ask $15.74K
Depth within 50bp
$349.93K
bid $154.06K · ask $195.88K
Mid price
0.662500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.117
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.822
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6626101.66bp0.6627002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6628815.75bp0.6631004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.66350915.24bp0.66410013FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.6622823.29bp0.6622002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6618879.25bp0.6618006FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.66143316.11bp0.66060016FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-apt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.127 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$649.62K
real volume
Sell weight
$502.98K
real volume
Net delta
$146.64K
buyers net
Imbalance
12.72%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
12.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-apt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.669600→0.6603001.389%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.679100→0.6700001.340%4
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms0.672500→0.6688000.550%1

/api/asset/hl-apt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
43.78%
σ per bar = 0.000191
Mean return (annualised)
-775.07%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.70
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.69%
peak 0.67 → trough 0.66 over 707 bars

/api/asset/hl-apt/risk · same metrics, JSON