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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APE

APE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ape · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 7.22%
realized vol (ann.)
235.28%
max drawdown
2.17%
sharpe
57.14
ulcer index
1.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.81%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
11818.75
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.14%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.19
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
6292.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.19
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
610
store
spread
—
24h Δ
7.22%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +7.22%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ape/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.137
24h Δ · live
7.22%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
APE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1312 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.1264, 0.1399] · R²=0.751▲ RISING +7.27%σ NORMAL 2.70%LAST 0.13710.13990.13650.13320.12980.1264μ = 0.1312max 0.1399min 0.1264dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,206,017 · μ=128240.7 · σ=106148.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=190100,468200,936301,404401,873μ = 128241401,872.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 401873 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.2s
$mark $
$0.1371
$mid $
$0.1371
◉prev-day close
$0.1279
Δ24h Δ %
+7.219%
$24h vol $
$408.35k
◐open interest $
$820.68k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1312 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.1264, 0.1399] · R²=0.751▲ RISING +7.27%σ NORMAL 2.70%LAST 0.13710.13990.13650.13320.12980.1264μ = 0.1312max 0.1399min 0.1264dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1371 · 24h 7.22% · range $[0.1264, 0.1399]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.1263, 0.1403] · σ=0.0035 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +5.48%CLOSE 0.1371 vs OPEN 0.1300 (+5.48%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.13710.14030.13680.13330.12980.1263μ close = 0.1312O0.130 H0.130 L0.127 C0.128 (-1.67%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.127 C0.128 (-1.67%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.27%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.27%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.76%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.76%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.79%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.79%)O0.126 H0.127 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.14%)O0.126 H0.127 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.14%)O0.127 H0.129 L0.127 C0.129 (+1.52%)O0.127 H0.129 L0.127 C0.129 (+1.52%)O0.129 H0.131 L0.128 C0.131 (+1.33%)O0.129 H0.131 L0.128 C0.131 (+1.33%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.19%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.19%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.13%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.13%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.69%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.69%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.15%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.15%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.129 C0.130 (-0.59%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.129 C0.130 (-0.59%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.127 C0.128 (-1.12%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.127 C0.128 (-1.12%)O0.128 H0.130 L0.128 C0.130 (+1.08%)O0.128 H0.130 L0.128 C0.130 (+1.08%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.129 (-0.96%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.129 (-0.96%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.130 (+0.98%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.130 (+0.98%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.88%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.88%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.133 (+1.30%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.133 (+1.30%)O0.133 H0.137 L0.133 C0.135 (+1.65%)O0.133 H0.137 L0.133 C0.135 (+1.65%)O0.136 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (-0.61%)O0.136 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (-0.61%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (+0.12%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (+0.12%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.133 C0.136 (+0.47%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.133 C0.136 (+0.47%)O0.136 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (-0.66%)O0.136 H0.136 L0.134 C0.135 (-0.66%)3.6%O0.135 H0.140 L0.134 C0.140 (+3.64%)O0.135 H0.140 L0.134 C0.140 (+3.64%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.137 C0.137 (-2.01%)O0.140 H0.140 L0.137 C0.137 (-2.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,206,017 · μ=128240.7 · σ=106148.7 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=190100,468200,936301,404401,873μ = 128241133,339.4 · 33.2% peak133,339.4 · 33.2% peak57,375 · 14.3% peak57,375 · 14.3% peak49,953.2 · 12.4% peak49,953.2 · 12.4% peak59,579.6 · 14.8% peak59,579.6 · 14.8% peak36,524 · 9.1% peak36,524 · 9.1% peak97,981.8 · 24.4% peak97,981.8 · 24.4% peak114,637 · 28.5% peak114,637 · 28.5% peak205,133.3 · 51.0% peak205,133.3 · 51.0% peak58,006.2 · 14.4% peak58,006.2 · 14.4% peak46,370.7 · 11.5% peak46,370.7 · 11.5% peak33,144.1 · 8.2% peak33,144.1 · 8.2% peak32,746.8 · 8.1% peak32,746.8 · 8.1% peak178,961.6 · 44.5% peak178,961.6 · 44.5% peak131,941.6 · 32.8% peak131,941.6 · 32.8% peak69,796.7 · 17.4% peak69,796.7 · 17.4% peak26,864.7 · 6.7% peak26,864.7 · 6.7% peak29,881.7 · 7.4% peak29,881.7 · 7.4% peak238,445.5 · 59.3% peak238,445.5 · 59.3% peak401,872.5401,872.5 · 100.0% peak401,872.5 · 100.0% peak68,142.5 · 17.0% peak68,142.5 · 17.0% peak135,357.5 · 33.7% peak135,357.5 · 33.7% peak101,856.4 · 25.3% peak101,856.4 · 25.3% peak250,324.5 · 62.3% peak250,324.5 · 62.3% peak307,872.1 · 76.6% peak307,872.1 · 76.6% peak339,908.7 · 84.6% peak339,908.7 · 84.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3206017 · peak 401873 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0031 · σ=0.0112 · skew=0.69 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.59 (mesokurtic)65320 1-176.91bpbin -176.91bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -176.91bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-129.37bp 5-81.83bpbin -81.83bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -81.83bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 3-34.29bpbin -34.29bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -34.29bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 613.25bpbin 13.25bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 13.25bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 160.80bpbin 60.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 60.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3108.34bpbin 108.34bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 108.34bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 4155.88bpbin 155.88bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 155.88bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak203.42bp250.96bp298.51bp 1346.05bpbin 346.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 346.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.76 · kurt=1.15 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1371
Mid price
$0.1371
24h change
+7.22%
Mark–mid spread
0.73 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1279

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.71)
μ MEAN0.1312$95% CI: [0.1298$, 0.1326$]
σ STD DEV0.0035$σ² = 0.126×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.70%
med MEDIAN0.1302$Q₁ 0.1285$ · Q₃ 0.1348$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0135$ · IQR 0.0063$ (1.349σ→0.0048$)
min 0.1264$Q₁ 0.1285$med 0.1302$Q₃ 0.1348$max 0.1399$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.711right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.503mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=23.00
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.292269%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.246
σᵣ STD / h1.189138%σ²ᵣ = 1.414×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.07×
σ ANNUALISED111.30%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.189%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)23.00excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)30.93strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.81right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.72leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.34
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2560.28%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.00%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.001%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.783%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.519%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.03%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.001%VaR₉₉−1.783%ES₉₅−1.519%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK13.09$
−2.03% drawdown over 4h
12.82$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.52× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.78× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.07% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
65.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.880 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1387
Bollinger MA
$0.1322
Bollinger lower
$0.1256

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.250within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.112lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.905strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.328significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.905
H = 0.905STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.250k=2+0.112k=3-0.080k=4-0.236k=5+0.1690+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.33)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.33)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$408.35k
Open interest (USD)
$820.68k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.50x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.70% · worst -2.01% · typical |Δ| 0.90%MILD BULLISH +7.01%BEST+3.70%06hWORST-2.01%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.90%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.01%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.57% · Σ +4.56%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.33%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.13%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.01%+9.02%-1.15%0.27% · 08h0.27% · 08h0.27%08h-0.66% · 09h-0.66% · 09h-0.66%09h-0.76% · 10h-0.76% · 10h-0.76%10h0.20% · 11h0.20% · 11h0.20%11h1.69% · 12h1.69% · 12h1.69%12h1.37% · 13h1.37% · 13h1.37%13h-0.03% · 14h-0.03% · 14h-0.03%14h0.24% · 15h0.24% · 15h0.24%15h-0.55% · 16h-0.55% · 16h-0.55%16h0.07% · 17h0.07% · 17h0.07%17h-0.54% · 18h-0.54% · 18h-0.54%18h-1.03% · 19h-1.03% · 19h-1.03%19h1.06% · 20h1.06% · 20h1.06%20h-0.82% · 21h-0.82% · 21h-0.82%21h0.97% · 22h0.97% · 22h0.97%22h0.97% · 23h0.97% · 23h0.97%23h1.34% · 00h1.34% · 00h1.34%00h1.75% · 01h1.75% · 01h1.75%01h-0.26% · 02h-0.26% · 02h-0.26%02h0.16% · 03h0.16% · 03h0.16%03h0.49% · 04h0.49% · 04h0.49%04h-0.62% · 05h-0.62% · 05h-0.62%05h3.70% · 06h3.70% · 06h3.70%06h★ BEST-2.01% · 07h-2.01% · 07h-2.01%07h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+4.56%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 3.70% · worst -2.01% · typical |Δ| 0.899%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.08%FINAL+7.08%MAX DD-2.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+9.28%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0708 · peak 1.0928 · range [0.9885, 1.0928]1.09280.9885break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0928UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.04% · moderate0%-2.04%▼ TROUGH -2.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.04%bar 10-16 · 7 bars · recovered#2 -2.01%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.41%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.0708 (7.08%) · max DD -2.04% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=32.29 · σ=42.85PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 12.00 (-0.47σ vs μ)103.2551.630.00-51.63-103.25μ = 32.2932.5932.5927.6827.6846.3646.3652.8552.8549.9449.9412.4912.49-59.53-59.53-15.65-15.65-36.98-36.98-5.04-5.049.579.5737.0137.0192.9892.9862.3862.38103.25103.2592.3392.3348.6448.6450.6750.6712.0012.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 11.996 · range [-59.53, 103.25] · μ 32.292 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=89.3492 · σ=29.7374 · range [45.1169, 177.9056] · R²=0.206▲ RISING +87.94%σ EXTREME 33.28%LAST 177.9056177.9056144.7084111.511278.314145.1169μ = 89.3492max 177.9056min 45.1169dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 177.91% · range [45.12%, 177.91%] · μ 89.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.061 · σ=0.333CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.606 (-1.64σ vs μ)0.6060.3030.000-0.303-0.606μ = -0.0610.4960.4960.4030.4030.1880.1880.1710.1710.3670.367-0.098-0.0980.0050.005-0.370-0.370-0.586-0.586-0.566-0.566-0.260-0.260-0.289-0.289-0.001-0.001-0.083-0.0830.1040.1040.1620.1620.0900.090-0.277-0.277-0.606-0.606v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.606 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.6220
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0601
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9060
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4282
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6300
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8558
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7585
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9006
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3678
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.726 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.46e-4 · top T=2.40h (21.7%) · top-3 cover 50.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.8e-42.9e-41.9e-49.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.77e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.77e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.06e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.06e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.98e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.98e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.31e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.31e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.89e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.89e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.50e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.50e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.80e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.80e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.12e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.12e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-4 · 14.3% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 21.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.751e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4726 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 5.73× · g(f★) 0.007%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.94× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.22%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.22%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
5.73×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.94×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.87×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.43×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.23× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 21.36400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.23× · bootstrap from 4725 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.009
annualized 21.36
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.27%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.35%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.87×0.94×1.01×1.08×1.15×1.22×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 25.14σ ann 509% · Sortino 31.18 · n 4725 · ⚠ capped (n=4725 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%748%1497%2245%2993%3742%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)509.0%Ann. vol σ2513.6%Sharpe (ann)3117.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1100.1170.1240.1310.1390.146t-4725t-3938t-3150t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
3.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1e5cdf20422e49e2bdd25f6583189f2c34ee3ea5629cac5c550b6ca7ba016d77 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.01K
bid $1.26K · ask $746
Depth within 10bp
$6.64K
bid $4.13K · ask $2.51K
Depth within 50bp
$77.58K
bid $43.64K · ask $33.94K
Mid price
0.137095
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.127
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.063
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ape/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1371574.56bp0.1371703FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.13725111.36bp0.13733010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.13739121.60bp0.13753020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1370384.17bp0.1370303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.13694211.13bp0.13683011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.13676623.97bp0.13659020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ape/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.21M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ape/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.153 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.77M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.30M
real volume
Net delta
$470.84K
buyers net
Imbalance
15.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ape/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.130860→0.1282002.033%4
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.139920→0.1371401.987%1
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z2.0h0.128190→0.1263901.404%3

/api/asset/hl-ape/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,726 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
509.02%
σ per bar = 0.002222
Mean return (annualised)
12794.51%
μ per bar = 0.000024
Sharpe (rf=0)
25.14
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.00%
peak 0.14 → trough 0.13 over 2441 bars

/api/asset/hl-ape/risk · same metrics, JSON