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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AERO

AERO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aero · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.03%
realized vol (ann.)
39.40%
max drawdown
1.35%
sharpe
-65.77
ulcer index
0.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.63%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3491.38
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2026.82
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.03%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.03%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aero/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.358
24h Δ · live
-2.03%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
AERO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3630 · σ=0.0029 · range [0.3583, 0.3681] · R²=0.363▼ FALLING -1.80%σ LOW 0.80%LAST 0.35830.36810.36560.36320.36070.3583μ = 0.3630max 0.3681min 0.3583dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.36
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,191,978 · μ=47679.1 · σ=40393.5 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11031,61263,22594,837126,449μ = 47679126,44950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 126449 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.5s
$mark $
$0.3583
$mid $
$0.3583
◉prev-day close
$0.3657
Δ24h Δ %
-2.032%
$24h vol $
$431.32k
◐open interest $
$6.28M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3630 · σ=0.0029 · range [0.3583, 0.3681] · R²=0.363▼ FALLING -1.80%σ LOW 0.80%LAST 0.35830.36810.36560.36320.36070.3583μ = 0.3630max 0.3681min 0.3583dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3583 · 24h -2.03% · range $[0.3583, 0.3681]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.3579, 0.3714] · σ=0.0029 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.65%CLOSE 0.3583 vs OPEN 0.3643 (-1.65%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.35830.37140.36800.36460.36130.3579μ close = 0.3630O0.364 H0.366 L0.364 C0.365 (+0.15%)O0.364 H0.366 L0.364 C0.365 (+0.15%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.365 C0.366 (+0.08%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.365 C0.366 (+0.08%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.365 C0.367 (+0.66%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.365 C0.367 (+0.66%)O0.367 H0.369 L0.367 C0.368 (+0.11%)O0.367 H0.369 L0.367 C0.368 (+0.11%)O0.367 H0.368 L0.364 C0.366 (-0.44%)O0.367 H0.368 L0.364 C0.366 (-0.44%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.25%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.25%)O0.365 H0.368 L0.365 C0.367 (+0.55%)O0.365 H0.368 L0.365 C0.367 (+0.55%)O0.367 H0.367 L0.358 C0.359 (-2.10%)O0.367 H0.367 L0.358 C0.359 (-2.10%)O0.359 H0.360 L0.358 C0.360 (+0.44%)O0.359 H0.360 L0.358 C0.360 (+0.44%)O0.360 H0.364 L0.358 C0.362 (+0.67%)O0.360 H0.364 L0.358 C0.362 (+0.67%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.08%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.08%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.08%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.08%)O0.361 H0.361 L0.360 C0.361 (-0.02%)O0.361 H0.361 L0.360 C0.361 (-0.02%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.360 C0.361 (+0.06%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.360 C0.361 (+0.06%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.360 C0.360 (-0.06%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.360 C0.360 (-0.06%)2.2%O0.360 H0.369 L0.360 C0.368 (+2.21%)O0.360 H0.369 L0.360 C0.368 (+2.21%)O0.368 H0.371 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.79%)O0.368 H0.371 L0.364 C0.365 (-0.79%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.34%)O0.365 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.34%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.361 C0.361 (-0.68%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.361 C0.361 (-0.68%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.361 C0.362 (+0.24%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.361 C0.362 (+0.24%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.09%)O0.362 H0.363 L0.361 C0.362 (-0.09%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.359 C0.360 (-0.47%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.359 C0.360 (-0.47%)O0.360 H0.361 L0.359 C0.359 (-0.29%)O0.360 H0.361 L0.359 C0.359 (-0.29%)O0.359 H0.359 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.09%)O0.359 H0.359 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,191,978 · μ=47679.1 · σ=40393.5 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11031,61263,22594,837126,449μ = 4767939,491 · 31.2% peak39,491 · 31.2% peak6,891 · 5.4% peak6,891 · 5.4% peak16,168 · 12.8% peak16,168 · 12.8% peak7,185 · 5.7% peak7,185 · 5.7% peak25,404 · 20.1% peak25,404 · 20.1% peak105,813 · 83.7% peak105,813 · 83.7% peak110,815 · 87.6% peak110,815 · 87.6% peak19,255 · 15.2% peak19,255 · 15.2% peak110,737 · 87.6% peak110,737 · 87.6% peak124,277 · 98.3% peak124,277 · 98.3% peak75,656 · 59.8% peak75,656 · 59.8% peak35,911 · 28.4% peak35,911 · 28.4% peak29,114 · 23.0% peak29,114 · 23.0% peak20,459 · 16.2% peak20,459 · 16.2% peak28,781 · 22.8% peak28,781 · 22.8% peak84,128 · 66.5% peak84,128 · 66.5% peak53,686 · 42.5% peak53,686 · 42.5% peak126,449126,449 · 100.0% peak126,449 · 100.0% peak30,586 · 24.2% peak30,586 · 24.2% peak58,083 · 45.9% peak58,083 · 45.9% peak8,305 · 6.6% peak8,305 · 6.6% peak13,807 · 10.9% peak13,807 · 10.9% peak46,229 · 36.6% peak46,229 · 36.6% peak7,486 · 5.9% peak7,486 · 5.9% peak7,262 · 5.7% peak7,262 · 5.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1191978 · peak 126449 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0068 · skew=0.28 (symmetric) · kurt=2.93 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 1-195.85bpbin -195.85bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -195.85bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-160.68bp-125.50bp 1-90.33bpbin -90.33bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -90.33bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 4-55.16bpbin -55.16bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -55.16bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 9-19.98bpbin -19.98bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -19.98bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 515.19bpbin 15.19bp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin 15.19bp · n=5 · 55.6% peak 250.37bpbin 50.37bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 50.37bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 185.54bpbin 85.54bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 85.54bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak120.71bp155.89bp 1191.06bpbin 191.06bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 191.06bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.21 · kurt=3.43 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3583
Mid price
$0.3583
24h change
-2.03%
Mark–mid spread
0.56 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3657

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.27)
μ MEAN0.3630$95% CI: [0.3618$, 0.3641$]
σ STD DEV0.0029$σ² = 0.085×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.80%
med MEDIAN0.3620$Q₁ 0.3608$ · Q₃ 0.3652$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0098$ · IQR 0.0044$ (1.349σ→0.0039$)
min 0.3583$Q₁ 0.3608$med 0.3620$Q₃ 0.3652$max 0.3681$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.210approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.270platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.64
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.075602%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.103
σᵣ STD / h0.734230%σ²ᵣ = 0.539×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.71×
σ ANNUALISED68.72%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.734%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.64negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.58downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.22approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.57leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.10
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-662.28%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.761%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.822%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.456%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.66%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.761%VaR₉₉−1.822%ES₉₅−1.456%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK36.81$
−2.66% drawdown over 8h
35.83$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.91× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.39× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.73% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.135 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3676
Bollinger MA
$0.3622
Bollinger lower
$0.3568

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.283within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.116lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.816strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.624significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.816
H = 0.816STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.283k=2-0.116k=3-0.034k=4+0.073k=5-0.1090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.62)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.62)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$431.32k
Open interest (USD)
$6.28M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.07x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.09% · worst -2.13% · typical |Δ| 0.48%BEARISH SESSION -1.81%BEST+2.09%03hWORST-2.13%19hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.81%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.28%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.81%+0.88%-1.81%0.20% · 12h0.20% · 12h0.20%12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h0.70% · 14h0.70% · 14h0.70%14h0.06% · 15h0.06% · 15h0.06%15h-0.55% · 16h-0.55% · 16h-0.55%16h-0.30% · 17h-0.30% · 17h-0.30%17h0.67% · 18h0.67% · 18h0.67%18h-2.13% · 19h-2.13% · 19h-2.13%19h▼ WORST0.31% · 20h0.31% · 20h0.31%20h0.59% · 21h0.59% · 21h0.59%21h-0.13% · 22h-0.13% · 22h-0.13%22h-0.09% · 23h-0.09% · 23h-0.09%23h-0.25% · 00h-0.25% · 00h-0.25%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h2.09% · 03h2.09% · 03h2.09%03h★ BEST-0.78% · 04h-0.78% · 04h-0.78%04h-0.44% · 05h-0.44% · 05h-0.44%05h-0.67% · 06h-0.67% · 06h-0.67%06h0.24% · 07h0.24% · 07h0.24%07h-0.08% · 08h-0.08% · 08h-0.08%08h-0.47% · 09h-0.47% · 09h-0.47%09h-0.35% · 10h-0.35% · 10h-0.35%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 2.09% · worst -2.13% · typical |Δ| 0.484%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.86%)FINAL-1.86%MAX DD-2.67%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.83%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9814 · peak 1.0083 · range [0.9814, 1.0083]1.00830.9814break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0083UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.67% · moderate0%-2.67%▼ TROUGH -2.67%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.67%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.31%bar 6-16 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.67%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9814 (-1.86%) · max DD -2.67% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-14.94 · σ=34.33MIXED EDGELAST -72.38 (-1.67σ vs μ)90.1845.090.00-45.09-90.18μ = -14.94-2.83-2.8311.6711.67-23.08-23.08-30.69-30.69-21.07-21.07-15.04-15.04-11.86-11.86-27.81-27.8123.4723.471.581.5826.4626.4613.8813.888.158.151.711.714.464.465.295.29-90.18-90.18-85.53-85.53-72.38-72.38v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -72.384 · range [-90.18, 26.46] · μ -14.937 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=72.9280 · σ=30.5587 · range [28.1403, 99.5276] · R²=0.034▼ FALLING -27.24%σ EXTREME 41.90%LAST 29.841999.527681.680863.834045.987128.1403μ = 72.9280max 99.5276min 28.1403dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 29.84% · range [28.14%, 99.53%] · μ 72.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.218 · σ=0.201MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.287 (-0.34σ vs μ)0.6190.3100.000-0.310-0.619μ = -0.218-0.004-0.004-0.122-0.122-0.283-0.283-0.619-0.619-0.426-0.426-0.429-0.429-0.404-0.404-0.089-0.0890.2260.226-0.129-0.129-0.054-0.054-0.442-0.442-0.326-0.326-0.229-0.229-0.254-0.254-0.189-0.1890.0200.020-0.108-0.108-0.287-0.287v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.287 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
21.0499
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6807
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2274
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4823
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0456
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3452
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1786
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.591 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.17e-5 · top T=2.18h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 58.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.4e-53.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.49e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.62e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.62e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.61e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.61e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.33e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.33e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.62e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.62e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.84e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.84e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.90e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.90e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 18.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.27e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.27e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.81e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.81e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.48e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.48e-4 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.68e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.68e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.201e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-17.11×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.09400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.09
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -559% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.78σ ann 57% · Sortino -7.61 · n 4999
-1174%-925%-677%-428%-180%69%-559.2%APR (simple)-99.7%APY (compound)57.2%Ann. vol σ-978.1%Sharpe (ann)-760.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3440.3520.3610.3690.3780.387t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age
4.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:25:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b93d7a39a982cf3621542d0d5e49e0742cfa248cec0763798a15ecad8098fdc4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,528HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$655
bid $221 · ask $434
Depth within 5bp
$3.83K
bid $2.00K · ask $1.82K
Depth within 10bp
$9.15K
bid $4.48K · ask $4.68K
Depth within 50bp
$38.71K
bid $16.65K · ask $22.06K
Mid price
0.358290
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.138
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.240
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aero/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3583983.02bp0.3584603FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.35870911.70bp0.35887012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.35899119.57bp0.35973020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3581942.68bp0.3581703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.35791410.49bp0.35764014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.35776814.58bp0.35715020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-aero/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.19M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aero/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.394 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$349.44K
real volume
Sell weight
$803.05K
real volume
Net delta
$453.61K
sellers net
Imbalance
-39.36%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
39.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aero/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.66% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z7.0h0.368060→0.3582702.660%8
#22026-06-13 19:00:00Z2.0h0.366990→0.3592402.112%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z1.0h0.367640→0.3645400.843%2

/api/asset/hl-aero/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
57.18%
σ per bar = 0.000249
Mean return (annualised)
-559.23%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.78
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.65%
peak 0.37 → trough 0.36 over 4193 bars

/api/asset/hl-aero/risk · same metrics, JSON