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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AAVE

AAVE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aave · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.65%
realized vol (ann.)
33.16%
max drawdown
1.02%
sharpe
-18.38
ulcer index
0.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1630.75
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-675.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.65%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.65%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aave/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH705ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$65.898
24h Δ · live
-1.65%
24h vol · live
$2.4M
AAVE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=66.6412 · σ=0.4697 · range [65.9100, 67.3970] · R²=0.141▼ FALLING -1.35%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 65.910067.397067.025266.653566.281865.9100μ = 66.6412max 67.3970min 65.9100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $65.91
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=36,329 · μ=1453.2 · σ=1580.6 · CV=1.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1101,8343,6685,5027,336μ = 14537,336.0350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7336 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
705ms
$mark $
$65.898
$mid $
$65.8975
◉prev-day close
$67.004
Δ24h Δ %
-1.651%
$24h vol $
$2.38M
◐open interest $
$45.62M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=66.6412 · σ=0.4697 · range [65.9100, 67.3970] · R²=0.141▼ FALLING -1.35%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 65.910067.397067.025266.653566.281865.9100μ = 66.6412max 67.3970min 65.9100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $65.8980 · 24h -1.65% · range $[65.9100, 67.3970]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [65.7980, 67.7270] · σ=0.4697 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -1.24%CLOSE 65.9100 vs OPEN 66.7350 (-1.24%)&#9660; CLOSE 65.910067.727067.244866.762566.280265.7980μ close = 66.6412O66.735 H67.123 L66.479 C66.810 (+0.11%)O66.735 H67.123 L66.479 C66.810 (+0.11%)O66.840 H67.187 L66.717 C66.896 (+0.08%)O66.840 H67.187 L66.717 C66.896 (+0.08%)O66.918 H67.012 L66.701 C66.853 (-0.10%)O66.918 H67.012 L66.701 C66.853 (-0.10%)O66.855 H67.220 L66.704 C67.145 (+0.43%)O66.855 H67.220 L66.704 C67.145 (+0.43%)O67.171 H67.501 L66.940 C67.032 (-0.21%)O67.171 H67.501 L66.940 C67.032 (-0.21%)-1.4%O67.067 H67.067 L65.798 C66.095 (-1.45%)O67.067 H67.067 L65.798 C66.095 (-1.45%)O66.118 H66.587 L65.965 C66.103 (-0.02%)O66.118 H66.587 L65.965 C66.103 (-0.02%)O66.082 H66.614 L66.062 C66.320 (+0.36%)O66.082 H66.614 L66.062 C66.320 (+0.36%)O66.341 H66.622 L66.244 C66.438 (+0.15%)O66.341 H66.622 L66.244 C66.438 (+0.15%)O66.402 H66.419 L66.169 C66.340 (-0.09%)O66.402 H66.419 L66.169 C66.340 (-0.09%)O66.354 H67.382 L66.165 C67.159 (+1.21%)O66.354 H67.382 L66.165 C67.159 (+1.21%)O67.199 H67.322 L66.934 C66.956 (-0.36%)O67.199 H67.322 L66.934 C66.956 (-0.36%)O66.942 H67.120 L66.867 C67.074 (+0.20%)O66.942 H67.120 L66.867 C67.074 (+0.20%)O67.083 H67.279 L66.939 C67.257 (+0.26%)O67.083 H67.279 L66.939 C67.257 (+0.26%)O67.269 H67.727 L67.194 C67.283 (+0.02%)O67.269 H67.727 L67.194 C67.283 (+0.02%)O67.250 H67.623 L67.195 C67.397 (+0.22%)O67.250 H67.623 L67.195 C67.397 (+0.22%)O67.378 H67.378 L66.886 C67.080 (-0.44%)O67.378 H67.378 L66.886 C67.080 (-0.44%)O67.098 H67.133 L66.614 C66.671 (-0.64%)O67.098 H67.133 L66.614 C66.671 (-0.64%)O66.670 H66.731 L66.041 C66.408 (-0.39%)O66.670 H66.731 L66.041 C66.408 (-0.39%)O66.390 H66.668 L66.082 C66.130 (-0.39%)O66.390 H66.668 L66.082 C66.130 (-0.39%)O66.117 H66.151 L65.932 C66.077 (-0.06%)O66.117 H66.151 L65.932 C66.077 (-0.06%)O66.090 H66.363 L65.992 C66.146 (+0.08%)O66.090 H66.363 L65.992 C66.146 (+0.08%)O66.164 H66.448 L65.984 C66.391 (+0.34%)O66.164 H66.448 L65.984 C66.391 (+0.34%)O66.402 H66.510 L66.050 C66.059 (-0.52%)O66.402 H66.510 L66.050 C66.059 (-0.52%)O66.054 H66.080 L65.841 C65.910 (-0.22%)O66.054 H66.080 L65.841 C65.910 (-0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=36,329 · μ=1453.2 · σ=1580.6 · CV=1.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1101,8343,6685,5027,336μ = 1453985.16 · 13.4% peak985.16 · 13.4% peak584.86 · 8.0% peak584.86 · 8.0% peak667.31 · 9.1% peak667.31 · 9.1% peak2,584.56 · 35.2% peak2,584.56 · 35.2% peak4,578.37 · 62.4% peak4,578.37 · 62.4% peak1,638.14 · 22.3% peak1,638.14 · 22.3% peak945.03 · 12.9% peak945.03 · 12.9% peak337.99 · 4.6% peak337.99 · 4.6% peak1,493.3 · 20.4% peak1,493.3 · 20.4% peak751.74 · 10.2% peak751.74 · 10.2% peak7,336.037,336.03 · 100.0% peak7,336.03 · 100.0% peak750.32 · 10.2% peak750.32 · 10.2% peak445.62 · 6.1% peak445.62 · 6.1% peak736.45 · 10.0% peak736.45 · 10.0% peak2,905.96 · 39.6% peak2,905.96 · 39.6% peak427.52 · 5.8% peak427.52 · 5.8% peak865.23 · 11.8% peak865.23 · 11.8% peak1,071.59 · 14.6% peak1,071.59 · 14.6% peak2,526.53 · 34.4% peak2,526.53 · 34.4% peak774.61 · 10.6% peak774.61 · 10.6% peak1,726.04 · 23.5% peak1,726.04 · 23.5% peak403.9 · 5.5% peak403.9 · 5.5% peak732.28 · 10.0% peak732.28 · 10.0% peak531.55 · 7.2% peak531.55 · 7.2% peak529.36 · 7.2% peak529.36 · 7.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 36329 · peak 7336 · CV 1.09

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0045 · skew=-0.21 (symmetric) · kurt=1.72 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-129.79bpbin -129.79bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -129.79bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-107.84bp-85.88bp 1-63.92bpbin -63.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -63.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-41.97bpbin -41.97bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -41.97bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 4-20.01bpbin -20.01bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -20.01bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 61.94bpbin 1.94bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 1.94bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 523.90bpbin 23.90bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 23.90bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 245.85bpbin 45.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 45.85bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak67.81bp89.77bp 1111.72bpbin 111.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 111.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=2.21 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$65.898
Mid price
$65.8975
24h change
-1.65%
Mark–mid spread
0.08 bps
Prev-day close
$67.004

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN66.6412$95% CI: [66.4571$, 66.8253$]
σ STD DEV0.4697$σ² = 0.221 · CV = 0.70%
med MEDIAN66.6710$Q₁ 66.1460$ · Q₃ 67.0740$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.4870$ · IQR 0.9280$ (1.349σ→0.6336$)
min 65.9100$Q₁ 66.1460$med 66.6710$Q₃ 67.0740$max 67.3970$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.017approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.586platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.89
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.056511%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.116
σᵣ STD / h0.485544%σ²ᵣ = 0.236×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.59×
σ ANNUALISED45.44%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.486%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.89negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.99downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.05leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-495.03%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.60%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.595%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.225%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.010%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.21%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.595%VaR₉₉−1.225%ES₉₅−1.010%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK6739.70$
−2.21% drawdown over 9h
6591.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.70× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.26% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.169 · within band
Bollinger upper
$67.5522
Bollinger MA
$66.5647
Bollinger lower
$65.5772

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.026within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.094lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.976strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.942fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.976
H = 0.976STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.026k=2-0.094k=3+0.036k=4-0.061k=5-0.2650+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.94)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.98very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.94)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$2.38M
Open interest (USD)
$45.62M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.23% · worst -1.41% · typical |Δ| 0.34%MILD BEARISH -1.36%BEST+1.23%21hWORST-1.41%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.08%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.06%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.36%+0.87%-1.36%0.13% · 12h0.13% · 12h0.13%12h-0.06% · 13h-0.06% · 13h-0.06%13h0.44% · 14h0.44% · 14h0.44%14h-0.17% · 15h-0.17% · 15h-0.17%15h-1.41% · 16h-1.41% · 16h-1.41%16h▼ WORST0.01% · 17h0.01% · 17h0.01%17h0.33% · 18h0.33% · 18h0.33%18h0.18% · 19h0.18% · 19h0.18%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h1.23% · 21h1.23% · 21h1.23%21h★ BEST-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h0.18% · 23h0.18% · 23h0.18%23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h0.04% · 01h0.04% · 01h0.04%01h0.17% · 02h0.17% · 02h0.17%02h-0.47% · 03h-0.47% · 03h-0.47%03h-0.61% · 04h-0.61% · 04h-0.61%04h-0.40% · 05h-0.40% · 05h-0.40%05h-0.42% · 06h-0.42% · 06h-0.42%06h-0.08% · 07h-0.08% · 07h-0.08%07h0.10% · 08h0.10% · 08h0.10%08h0.37% · 09h0.37% · 09h0.37%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.23% · 11h-0.23% · 11h-0.23%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.08%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.23% · worst -1.41% · typical |Δ| 0.343%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.37%)FINAL-1.37%MAX DD-2.21%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.86%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9863 · peak 1.0086 · range [0.9863, 1.0086]1.00860.9863break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0086UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.21% · moderate0%-2.21%▼ TROUGH -2.21%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.21%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.57%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.30%bar 12-13 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.21%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9863 (-1.37%) · max DD -2.21% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-18.98 · σ=46.82UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -35.80 (-0.36σ vs μ)108.8054.400.00-54.40-108.80μ = -18.98-26.03-26.03-20.40-20.40-14.40-14.40-30.30-30.303.463.4637.1237.1242.4742.4740.9640.9636.4936.4948.0648.06-6.14-6.14-17.77-17.77-41.87-41.87-84.84-84.84-97.54-97.54-108.80-108.80-43.59-43.59-41.67-41.67-35.80-35.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -35.801 · range [-108.80, 48.06] · μ -18.978 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.6870 · σ=15.4178 · range [25.1410, 79.8810] · R²=0.742▼ FALLING -48.55%σ EXTREME 34.50%LAST 30.697679.881066.196052.511038.826025.1410μ = 44.6870max 79.8810min 25.1410dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.70% · range [25.14%, 79.88%] · μ 44.69% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.054 · σ=0.366CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.070 (-0.04σ vs μ)0.6120.3060.000-0.306-0.612μ = -0.054-0.066-0.066-0.028-0.0280.0310.0310.0190.019-0.048-0.048-0.612-0.612-0.603-0.603-0.603-0.603-0.604-0.604-0.363-0.363-0.124-0.1240.3840.3840.4260.4260.3620.362-0.032-0.0320.4250.4250.4480.4480.0280.028-0.070-0.070v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.070 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.4348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0089
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7322
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7436
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3605
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2357
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2944
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1047
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9166
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.032 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.37e-5 · top T=3.00h (18.8%) · top-3 cover 52.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.4e-54.0e-52.7e-51.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.68e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.68e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.72e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.72e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.78e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.78e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.77e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.77e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.75e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.75e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.10e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.89e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.89e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.27e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.27e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.96e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.96e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 9.5% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 18.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.846e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-180.69×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -59.80400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.026
annualized -59.80
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -63.12σ ann 35% · Sortino -49.85 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7575%-6052%-4528%-3005%-1481%42%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)34.9%Ann. vol σ-6312.4%Sharpe (ann)-4985.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
63.24464.59965.95567.31168.66770.023t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:23:21 UTC
Snapshot age
705ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:23:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
766a7942edb2370785c85197a0ae66093ddb86b0e7c369e5d548f3108dcced89 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,504HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$28.93K
bid $21.49K · ask $7.44K
Depth within 10bp
$86.95K
bid $55.60K · ask $31.35K
Depth within 50bp
$94.05K
bid $55.60K · ask $38.46K
Mid price
65.897500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.183
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.541
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aave/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K65.90561.22bp65.90602FILLED
BUY$10.00K65.91943.33bp65.935010FILLED
BUY$100.00K65.94517.22bp65.970020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K65.88851.37bp65.88702FILLED
SELL$10.00K65.87693.12bp65.87504FILLED
SELL$100.00K65.86295.26bp65.844020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-aave/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$67.0000–$68.0000★8$19.88K
$66.0000–$67.000016$15.92K
$65.0000–$66.00001$529

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aave/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.071 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$18.93K
real volume
Sell weight
$16.41K
real volume
Net delta
$2.52K
buyers net
Imbalance
7.14%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aave/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.96% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h67.3970→66.07701.959%4
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h67.1450→66.09501.564%3
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h66.3910→65.91000.724%2

/api/asset/hl-aave/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
34.93%
σ per bar = 0.000152
Mean return (annualised)
-2205.21%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-63.12
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.27%
peak 67.36 → trough 65.84 over 4960 bars

/api/asset/hl-aave/risk · same metrics, JSON