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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TURBO

TURBO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-turbo · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.42%
realized vol (ann.)
131.85%
max drawdown
2.96%
sharpe
-2.24
ulcer index
1.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-166.41
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-110.65
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
2.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.42%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +2.42%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-TURBO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH939ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
2.42%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
TURBO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.149▲ RISING +1.83%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=249,164,744 · μ=9966589.8 · σ=21125939.3 · CV=2.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11024,141,75748,283,51472,425,27096,567,027μ = 996659096,567,02750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 96567027 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
939ms
$mark $
$0.0009
$mid $
$0.0009
◉prev-day close
$0.0009
Δ24h Δ %
+2.422%
$24h vol $
$223.75k
◐open interest $
$246.61k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.149▲ RISING +1.83%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0009 · 24h 2.42% · range $[0.0009, 0.0009]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BULLISH +2.77%CLOSE 0.0009 vs OPEN 0.0009 (+2.77%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ close = 0.0009O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)2.4%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.77%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.77%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.74%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.74%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=249,164,744 · μ=9966589.8 · σ=21125939.3 · CV=2.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11024,141,75748,283,51472,425,27096,567,027μ = 99665902,266,672 · 2.3% peak2,266,672 · 2.3% peak1,908,481 · 2.0% peak1,908,481 · 2.0% peak96,567,02796,567,027 · 100.0% peak96,567,027 · 100.0% peak2,837,631 · 2.9% peak2,837,631 · 2.9% peak2,451,297 · 2.5% peak2,451,297 · 2.5% peak3,547,233 · 3.7% peak3,547,233 · 3.7% peak866,460 · 0.9% peak866,460 · 0.9% peak3,924,053 · 4.1% peak3,924,053 · 4.1% peak2,059,493 · 2.1% peak2,059,493 · 2.1% peak2,039,446 · 2.1% peak2,039,446 · 2.1% peak6,584,951 · 6.8% peak6,584,951 · 6.8% peak1,810,002 · 1.9% peak1,810,002 · 1.9% peak4,547,805 · 4.7% peak4,547,805 · 4.7% peak20,292,288 · 21.0% peak20,292,288 · 21.0% peak1,770,622 · 1.8% peak1,770,622 · 1.8% peak6,414,873 · 6.6% peak6,414,873 · 6.6% peak2,154,770 · 2.2% peak2,154,770 · 2.2% peak53,657,359 · 55.6% peak53,657,359 · 55.6% peak4,429,912 · 4.6% peak4,429,912 · 4.6% peak2,089,849 · 2.2% peak2,089,849 · 2.2% peak3,696,064 · 3.8% peak3,696,064 · 3.8% peak1,615,100 · 1.7% peak1,615,100 · 1.7% peak18,929,399 · 19.6% peak18,929,399 · 19.6% peak1,585,271 · 1.6% peak1,585,271 · 1.6% peak1,118,686 · 1.2% peak1,118,686 · 1.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 249164744 · peak 96567027 · CV 2.12

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0093 · skew=0.35 (symmetric) · kurt=0.02 (mesokurtic)43210 1-168.31bpbin -168.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -168.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-132.32bpbin -132.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -132.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-96.34bp 4-60.35bpbin -60.35bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -60.35bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 4-24.36bpbin -24.36bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -24.36bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 411.63bpbin 11.63bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 11.63bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 347.61bpbin 47.61bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 47.61bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 383.60bpbin 83.60bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 83.60bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1119.59bpbin 119.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 119.59bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak155.58bp 1191.57bpbin 191.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 191.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1227.55bpbin 227.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 227.55bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.40 · kurt=0.16 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0009
Mid price
$0.0009
24h change
+2.42%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0009

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0009$95% CI: [0.0009$, 0.0009$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.18%
med MEDIAN0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$ · Q₃ 0.0009$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$med 0.0009$Q₃ 0.0009$max 0.0009$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.368approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.097mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.98
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.075674%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.075
σᵣ STD / h1.015147%σ²ᵣ = 1.031×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.41×
σ ANNUALISED95.01%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.015%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.98excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.76strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.43approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.50mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+662.90%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.42%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.421%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.769%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.659%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.47%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.421%VaR₉₉−1.769%ES₉₅−1.659%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.09$
−3.47% drawdown over 7h
0.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.60% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.293 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0009
Bollinger MA
$0.0009
Bollinger lower
$0.0009

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.104within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.128lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.965strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.004significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.965
H = 0.965STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.104k=2-0.128k=3+0.047k=4+0.128k=5-0.2330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$223.75k
Open interest (USD)
$246.61k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.91x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.343× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.672× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.836×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.46% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.76%MILD BULLISH +1.82%BEST+2.46%01hWORST-1.86%06hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.82%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.59%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.82%+5.35%0.00%2.04% · 13h2.04% · 13h2.04%13h1.23% · 14h1.23% · 14h1.23%14h-1.23% · 15h-1.23% · 15h-1.23%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.01% · 17h1.01% · 17h1.01%17h-1.45% · 18h-1.45% · 18h-1.45%18h-0.34% · 19h-0.34% · 19h-0.34%19h0.45% · 20h0.45% · 20h0.45%20h0.45% · 21h0.45% · 21h0.45%21h0.22% · 22h0.22% · 22h0.22%22h-0.56% · 23h-0.56% · 23h-0.56%23h-0.45% · 00h-0.45% · 00h-0.45%00h2.46% · 01h2.46% · 01h2.46%01h★ BEST-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.88% · 03h0.88% · 03h0.88%03h0.22% · 04h0.22% · 04h0.22%04h0.76% · 05h0.76% · 05h0.76%05h-1.86% · 06h-1.86% · 06h-1.86%06h▼ WORST-0.22% · 07h-0.22% · 07h-0.22%07h-0.78% · 08h-0.78% · 08h-0.78%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.33% · 10h0.33% · 10h0.33%10h-0.78% · 11h-0.78% · 11h-0.78%11h-0.22% · 12h-0.22% · 12h-0.22%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.45%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 2.46% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.762%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.71%FINAL+1.71%MAX DD-3.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.40%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0171 · peak 1.0540 · range [1.0000, 1.0540]1.05401.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0540UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.50% · moderate0%-3.50%▼ TROUGH -3.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.50%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.02%bar 4-13 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.33%bar 15-15 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0171 (1.71%) · max DD -3.50% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-3.13 · σ=32.33MIXED EDGELAST -59.43 (-1.74σ vs μ)66.4333.210.00-33.21-66.43μ = -3.1317.6517.65-11.09-11.09-25.60-25.602.052.056.116.11-25.87-25.87-7.58-7.5836.8736.8724.6624.6629.9629.9629.8929.8951.8351.8323.1323.13-8.64-8.64-15.07-15.07-32.15-32.15-29.70-29.70-66.43-66.43-59.43-59.43v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -59.433 · range [-66.43, 51.83] · μ -3.126 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=91.1328 · σ=24.1857 · range [41.1030, 134.1022] · R²=0.059▼ FALLING -68.76%σ EXTREME 26.54%LAST 41.1030134.1022110.852487.602664.352841.1030μ = 91.1328max 134.1022min 41.1030dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 41.10% · range [41.10%, 134.10%] · μ 91.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.243 · σ=0.231MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.346 (-0.44σ vs μ)0.7240.3620.000-0.362-0.724μ = -0.243-0.081-0.081-0.441-0.441-0.307-0.307-0.251-0.251-0.210-0.2100.2320.2320.2760.276-0.121-0.121-0.357-0.357-0.395-0.395-0.427-0.427-0.724-0.724-0.276-0.276-0.190-0.190-0.128-0.128-0.342-0.342-0.411-0.411-0.115-0.115-0.346-0.346v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.346 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9852
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1205
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0398
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0673
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2858
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1985
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.609 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.08e-4 · top T=4.00h (26.3%) · top-3 cover 60.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-42.5e-41.7e-48.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.77e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.77e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.27e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.20e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.20e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.78e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.78e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.40e-4 · 26.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.40e-4 · 26.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.69e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.69e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.33e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.33e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.61e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.61e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.91e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.91e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.50e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.50e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 16.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 26.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.290e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-13.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.39400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.39
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.98σ ann 150% · Sortino -10.42 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2517%-1978%-1438%-899%-359%180%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)150.2%Ann. vol σ-2097.8%Sharpe (ann)-1041.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:42:28 UTC
Snapshot age
939ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:42:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
42afd8b74e8dfa9bfd718c180c2a0273321ad685dee8ab37380b741f2dfaa1ef · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,315.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.76

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$15.02K
bid $6.68K · ask $8.33K
Mid price
0.000888
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
22.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.066
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.093
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TURBO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00088911.26bp0.0008891FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00089129.53bp0.0008946FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000903165.65bp0.00092020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00088711.26bp0.0008871FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00088537.58bp0.0008789FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000872185.49bp0.00085320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$249.16M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TURBO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.735 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$214.16M
real volume
Sell weight
$32.74M
real volume
Net delta
$181.41M
buyers net
Imbalance
73.48%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
73.5%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-TURBO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.82% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z3.0h0.000921→0.0008952.823%4
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.000900→0.0008841.778%3
#32026-06-13 15:00:00Z1.0h0.000902→0.0008911.220%2

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
150.17%
σ per bar = 0.000655
Mean return (annualised)
-3150.32%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.32%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 4805 bars

/api/asset/hl-TURBO/risk · same metrics, JSON