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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SOPH

SOPH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-soph · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.17%
realized vol (ann.)
50.45%
max drawdown
0.34%
sharpe
51.54
ulcer index
0.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
15701.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
8171.35
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.14
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
615
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SOPH/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.005
24h Δ · live
0.17%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
SOPH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0053 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0052, 0.0053] · R²=0.298▲ RISING +0.46%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.00530.00530.00530.00530.00530.0052μ = 0.0053max 0.0053min 0.0052dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,818,788 · μ=272751.5 · σ=305618.4 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90323,500647,000970,4991,293,999μ = 2727521,293,99950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1293999 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.5s
$mark $
$0.0053
$mid $
$0.0053
◉prev-day close
$0.0053
Δ24h Δ %
+0.171%
$24h vol $
$34.11k
◐open interest $
$125.35k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0053 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0052, 0.0053] · R²=0.298▲ RISING +0.46%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.00530.00530.00530.00530.00530.0052μ = 0.0053max 0.0053min 0.0052dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0053 · 24h 0.17% · range $[0.0052, 0.0053]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0052, 0.0054] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=36%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0053 vs OPEN 0.0053 (-0.04%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00530.00540.00530.00530.00530.0052μ close = 0.0053O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.49%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.49%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.55%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.55%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.51%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.51%)0.9%O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.87%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.87%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.09%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.09%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.81%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.81%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.66%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.66%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.28%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.28%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.15%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.30%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.30%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.09%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.09%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.08%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.08%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.13%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.13%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.04%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.02%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.02%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.25%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.25%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.02%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.02%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.38%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.38%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.06%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.06%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.23%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.23%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.38%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.38%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,818,788 · μ=272751.5 · σ=305618.4 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90323,500647,000970,4991,293,999μ = 272752355,773 · 27.5% peak355,773 · 27.5% peak165,610 · 12.8% peak165,610 · 12.8% peak186,590 · 14.4% peak186,590 · 14.4% peak441,315 · 34.1% peak441,315 · 34.1% peak214,417 · 16.6% peak214,417 · 16.6% peak488,783 · 37.8% peak488,783 · 37.8% peak148,078 · 11.4% peak148,078 · 11.4% peak198,937 · 15.4% peak198,937 · 15.4% peak1,293,9991,293,999 · 100.0% peak1,293,999 · 100.0% peak76,586 · 5.9% peak76,586 · 5.9% peak98,062 · 7.6% peak98,062 · 7.6% peak93,432 · 7.2% peak93,432 · 7.2% peak181,537 · 14.0% peak181,537 · 14.0% peak140,667 · 10.9% peak140,667 · 10.9% peak99,265 · 7.7% peak99,265 · 7.7% peak72,100 · 5.6% peak72,100 · 5.6% peak95,650 · 7.4% peak95,650 · 7.4% peak1,160,545 · 89.7% peak1,160,545 · 89.7% peak213,630 · 16.5% peak213,630 · 16.5% peak205,010 · 15.8% peak205,010 · 15.8% peak173,328 · 13.4% peak173,328 · 13.4% peak224,197 · 17.3% peak224,197 · 17.3% peak177,007 · 13.7% peak177,007 · 13.7% peak171,168 · 13.2% peak171,168 · 13.2% peak143,102 · 11.1% peak143,102 · 11.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6818788 · peak 1293999 · CV 1.12

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0040 · skew=0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=0.20 (mesokurtic)54310 2-73.04bpbin -73.04bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -73.04bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-57.34bp 2-41.63bpbin -41.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -41.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-25.92bpbin -25.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -25.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-10.22bpbin -10.22bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -10.22bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 25.49bpbin 5.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 5.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 521.19bpbin 21.19bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 21.19bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 336.90bpbin 36.90bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 36.90bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak52.61bp 168.31bpbin 68.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 68.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak84.02bp 199.73bpbin 99.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 99.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.33 · kurt=0.67 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0053
Mid price
$0.0053
24h change
+0.17%
Mark–mid spread
1.90 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0053

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.01)
μ MEAN0.0053$95% CI: [0.0053$, 0.0053$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.44%
med MEDIAN0.0053$Q₁ 0.0053$ · Q₃ 0.0053$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0052$Q₁ 0.0053$med 0.0053$Q₃ 0.0053$max 0.0053$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.007right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.667mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.57
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=4.32
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.018990%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.046
σᵣ STD / h0.411460%σ²ᵣ = 0.169×10⁻⁴ · CV = 21.67×
σ ANNUALISED38.51%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.411%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)4.32excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)4.94strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)91.53exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.35approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.13leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.14
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 91.53
EXPECTED EDGE+166.35%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.63%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.631%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.775%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.735%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.82%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.631%VaR₉₉−0.775%ES₉₅−0.735%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK0.53$
−1.82% drawdown over 16h
0.52$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.85% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.618 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0053
Bollinger MA
$0.0053
Bollinger lower
$0.0052

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.326within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.020lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.885strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.127significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.885
H = 0.885STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.326k=2+0.020k=3+0.219k=4-0.323k=5+0.1600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$34.11k
Open interest (USD)
$125.35k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.27x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.08% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.30%MILD BULLISH +0.46%BEST+1.08%10hWORST-0.81%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.46%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.61%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.38%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.46%+1.57%-0.27%0.72% · 08h0.72% · 08h0.72%08h-0.42% · 09h-0.42% · 09h-0.42%09h1.08% · 10h1.08% · 10h1.08%10h★ BEST0.19% · 11h0.19% · 11h0.19%11h-0.81% · 12h-0.81% · 12h-0.81%12h▼ WORST0.32% · 13h0.32% · 13h0.32%13h-0.66% · 14h-0.66% · 14h-0.66%14h0.19% · 15h0.19% · 15h0.19%15h-0.04% · 16h-0.04% · 16h-0.04%16h-0.28% · 17h-0.28% · 17h-0.28%17h-0.06% · 18h-0.06% · 18h-0.06%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.11% · 20h-0.11% · 20h-0.11%20h-0.19% · 21h-0.19% · 21h-0.19%21h0.17% · 22h0.17% · 22h0.17%22h-0.04% · 23h-0.04% · 23h-0.04%23h-0.27% · 00h-0.27% · 00h-0.27%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h-0.46% · 03h-0.46% · 03h-0.46%03h0.06% · 04h0.06% · 04h0.06%04h0.30% · 05h0.30% · 05h0.30%05h0.38% · 06h0.38% · 06h0.38%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.61%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.08% · worst -0.81% · typical |Δ| 0.301%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.44%FINAL+0.44%MAX DD-1.83%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.57%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0044 · peak 1.0157 · range [0.9972, 1.0157]1.01570.9972break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0157UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.83% · moderate0%-1.83%▼ TROUGH -1.83%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.83%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.42%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.83%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0044 (0.44%) · max DD -1.83% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-13.64 · σ=20.77UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 11.94 (+1.23σ vs μ)51.5725.780.00-25.78-51.57μ = -13.6424.0524.05-6.62-6.626.816.81-26.28-26.28-43.89-43.89-23.60-23.60-33.20-33.20-11.56-11.56-51.57-51.57-25.20-25.20-5.95-5.95-22.66-22.66-12.80-12.80-7.25-7.25-21.02-21.02-29.38-29.38-6.95-6.9525.8825.8811.9411.94v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 11.940 · range [-51.57, 25.88] · μ -13.644 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=31.5606 · σ=17.4423 · range [13.9819, 66.7763] · R²=0.463▼ FALLING -57.50%σ EXTREME 55.27%LAST 27.833766.776353.577740.379127.180513.9819μ = 31.5606max 66.7763min 13.9819dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 27.83% · range [13.98%, 66.78%] · μ 31.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.291 · σ=0.268MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.237 (+1.97σ vs μ)0.7810.3900.000-0.390-0.781μ = -0.291-0.407-0.407-0.327-0.327-0.208-0.208-0.781-0.781-0.654-0.654-0.643-0.643-0.293-0.293-0.090-0.090-0.101-0.101-0.204-0.204-0.414-0.414-0.216-0.216-0.407-0.407-0.518-0.518-0.189-0.189-0.392-0.392-0.172-0.1720.2480.2480.2370.237v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.237 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4120
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.4145
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1336
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5542
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4807
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4324
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1520
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.564 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.63e-5 · top T=2.40h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 58.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.6e-53.4e-52.3e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.58e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.28e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.28e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.49e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.49e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.26e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.26e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.31e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.31e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 21.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.71e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.71e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.55e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.55e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.04e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.23e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.23e-7 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.950e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.04× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.04× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.31%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.31%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.04×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.04×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.02×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.01×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.2×0.4×0.7×0.9×1.1×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 1.86400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 1.86
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 211% · APY -100% · Sharpe 0.30σ ann 705% · Sortino 0.27 · n 4729
-120%73%266%460%653%846%210.8%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)705.2%Ann. vol σ29.9%Sharpe (ann)26.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0050.0050.0060.0060.0070.007t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Snapshot age
5.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3d01097eecd055551a56a43f403f4b053fc081f75d6c3c3efa14cb2ea4f7398e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.13HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.92K
bid $2.43K · ask $1.49K
Depth within 50bp
$13.58K
bid $7.18K · ask $6.39K
Mid price
0.005274
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.346
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.163
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SOPH/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0052775.69bp0.0052771FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00529336.60bp0.0053158FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.005430295.42bp0.00871020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0052716.63bp0.0052693FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00525633.87bp0.00523511FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.005214113.43bp0.00517020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SOPH/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.82M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SOPH/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.022 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.30M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.16M
real volume
Net delta
$143.10K
buyers net
Imbalance
2.21%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
2.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SOPH/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.14% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z0ms0.005337→0.0052761.143%1
#22026-06-19 12:00:00Z0ms0.005337→0.0052940.806%1
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.005311→0.0052840.508%1

/api/asset/hl-SOPH/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
705.18%
σ per bar = 0.003078
Mean return (annualised)
210.78%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.30
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.89%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4058 bars

/api/asset/hl-SOPH/risk · same metrics, JSON