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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SAGA

SAGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-saga · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.77%
realized vol (ann.)
95.61%
max drawdown
2.48%
sharpe
-12.68
ulcer index
1.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-755.02
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-514.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.77%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +2.77%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SAGA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
2.77%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SAGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0127, 0.0136] · R²=0.024▲ RISING +2.21%σ NORMAL 1.86%LAST 0.01300.01360.01340.01320.01290.0127μ = 0.0132max 0.0136min 0.0127dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=16,432,338 · μ=657293.5 · σ=414728.5 · CV=0.63STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110455,871911,7431,367,6141,823,486μ = 6572941,823,485.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1823486 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.7s
$mark $
$0.013
$mid $
$0.013
◉prev-day close
$0.0126
Δ24h Δ %
+2.771%
$24h vol $
$212.76k
◐open interest $
$158.52k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0127, 0.0136] · R²=0.024▲ RISING +2.21%σ NORMAL 1.86%LAST 0.01300.01360.01340.01320.01290.0127μ = 0.0132max 0.0136min 0.0127dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0130 · 24h 2.77% · range $[0.0127, 0.0136]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0126, 0.0140] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +2.69%CLOSE 0.0130 vs OPEN 0.0126 (+2.69%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01300.01400.01360.01330.01300.0126μ close = 0.0132O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.48%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.48%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.65%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.65%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.23%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.23%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)3.7%O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+3.65%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+3.65%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.44%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.44%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (-0.22%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (-0.22%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.04%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.05%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.05%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.98%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.98%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.07%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.07%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.91%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.91%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.87%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.87%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.84%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.84%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.54%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.54%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=16,432,338 · μ=657293.5 · σ=414728.5 · CV=0.63STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110455,871911,7431,367,6141,823,486μ = 657294479,669.1 · 26.3% peak479,669.1 · 26.3% peak258,183.4 · 14.2% peak258,183.4 · 14.2% peak866,951.6 · 47.5% peak866,951.6 · 47.5% peak617,169.9 · 33.8% peak617,169.9 · 33.8% peak527,267.1 · 28.9% peak527,267.1 · 28.9% peak595,786.3 · 32.7% peak595,786.3 · 32.7% peak263,657.7 · 14.5% peak263,657.7 · 14.5% peak946,665.7 · 51.9% peak946,665.7 · 51.9% peak1,652,930 · 90.6% peak1,652,930 · 90.6% peak1,175,695.8 · 64.5% peak1,175,695.8 · 64.5% peak924,597.6 · 50.7% peak924,597.6 · 50.7% peak613,718.6 · 33.7% peak613,718.6 · 33.7% peak1,823,485.61,823,485.6 · 100.0% peak1,823,485.6 · 100.0% peak207,431.9 · 11.4% peak207,431.9 · 11.4% peak330,257.2 · 18.1% peak330,257.2 · 18.1% peak155,913.7 · 8.6% peak155,913.7 · 8.6% peak801,383.7 · 43.9% peak801,383.7 · 43.9% peak456,616.5 · 25.0% peak456,616.5 · 25.0% peak602,370.6 · 33.0% peak602,370.6 · 33.0% peak573,677 · 31.5% peak573,677 · 31.5% peak458,872.2 · 25.2% peak458,872.2 · 25.2% peak372,349.5 · 20.4% peak372,349.5 · 20.4% peak557,892.1 · 30.6% peak557,892.1 · 30.6% peak296,673.9 · 16.3% peak296,673.9 · 16.3% peak873,121.8 · 47.9% peak873,121.8 · 47.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 16432338 · peak 1823486 · CV 0.63

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0118 · skew=0.70 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.16 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 3-172.30bpbin -172.30bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -172.30bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-124.13bpbin -124.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -124.13bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-75.96bpbin -75.96bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -75.96bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-27.79bpbin -27.79bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -27.79bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 320.38bpbin 20.38bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 20.38bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 468.55bpbin 68.55bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 68.55bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 3116.71bpbin 116.71bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 116.71bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1164.88bpbin 164.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 164.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak213.05bp261.22bp309.39bp 1357.56bpbin 357.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 357.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.71 · kurt=1.49 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.013
Mid price
$0.013
24h change
+2.77%
Mark–mid spread
7.70 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0126

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0132$95% CI: [0.0131$, 0.0133$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.86%
med MEDIAN0.0131$Q₁ 0.0130$ · Q₃ 0.0133$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0127$Q₁ 0.0130$med 0.0131$Q₃ 0.0133$max 0.0136$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.132approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.573mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.22
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.84
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.75
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.091007%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.072
σᵣ STD / h1.262279%σ²ᵣ = 1.593×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.87×
σ ANNUALISED118.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.262%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.75excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.90strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.76right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.15leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.17
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+797.22%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.87%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.866%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.946%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.925%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.85%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.866%VaR₉₉−1.946%ES₉₅−1.925%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK1.36$
−4.85% drawdown over 17h
1.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +5.09% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.165 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0136
Bollinger MA
$0.0132
Bollinger lower
$0.0128

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.110within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.046lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.894strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.754fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.894
H = 0.894STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.110k=2-0.046k=3+0.214k=4-0.063k=5-0.0700+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.90very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$212.76k
Open interest (USD)
$158.52k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.712× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.856× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.428×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.82% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.91%MILD BULLISH +2.18%BEST+3.82%19hWORST-1.96%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.91%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.18%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.96%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.41% · Σ +3.27%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.18%+7.15%0.00%0.24% · 13h0.24% · 13h0.24%13h1.64% · 14h1.64% · 14h1.64%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h0.77% · 16h0.77% · 16h0.77%16h-0.08% · 17h-0.08% · 17h-0.08%17h0.54% · 18h0.54% · 18h0.54%18h3.82% · 19h3.82% · 19h3.82%19h★ BEST-0.22% · 20h-0.22% · 20h-0.22%20h-0.52% · 21h-0.52% · 21h-0.52%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.97% · 23h-0.97% · 23h-0.97%23h-1.89% · 00h-1.89% · 00h-1.89%00h1.06% · 01h1.06% · 01h1.06%01h-0.91% · 02h-0.91% · 02h-0.91%02h0.68% · 03h0.68% · 03h0.68%03h-1.14% · 04h-1.14% · 04h-1.14%04h1.14% · 05h1.14% · 05h1.14%05h0.98% · 06h0.98% · 06h0.98%06h-1.96% · 07h-1.96% · 07h-1.96%07h▼ WORST0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h0.91% · 09h0.91% · 09h0.91%09h-1.75% · 10h-1.75% · 10h-1.75%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11h-0.23% · 12h-0.23% · 12h-0.23%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.27%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 3.82% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.909%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.02%FINAL+2.02%MAX DD-4.93%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.32%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0202 · peak 1.0732 · range [1.0000, 1.0732]1.07321.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0732UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.93% · moderate0%-4.93%▼ TROUGH -4.93%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.93%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.08%bar 6-6 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.93%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0202 (2.02%) · max DD -4.93% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=3.63 · σ=40.68MIXED EDGELAST -43.61 (-1.16σ vs μ)86.0943.050.00-43.05-86.09μ = 3.6386.0986.0975.4575.4552.4852.4842.2142.2133.2933.2923.1823.181.211.21-41.41-41.41-51.81-51.81-29.36-29.36-43.06-43.06-12.67-12.6727.1427.14-14.55-14.55-3.79-3.79-0.92-0.92-7.63-7.63-23.34-23.34-43.61-43.61v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.612 · range [-51.81, 86.09] · μ 3.626 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=121.4352 · σ=29.0941 · range [56.5564, 184.2381] · R²=0.023▲ RISING +84.36%σ EXTREME 23.96%LAST 104.2655184.2381152.3177120.397388.476856.5564μ = 121.4352max 184.2381min 56.5564dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 104.27% · range [56.56%, 184.24%] · μ 121.44% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.323 · σ=0.201MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.353 (-0.15σ vs μ)0.6850.3420.000-0.342-0.685μ = -0.323-0.486-0.486-0.050-0.050-0.326-0.326-0.174-0.174-0.084-0.084-0.003-0.0030.0650.065-0.340-0.340-0.480-0.480-0.445-0.445-0.515-0.515-0.685-0.685-0.474-0.474-0.379-0.379-0.373-0.373-0.255-0.255-0.244-0.244-0.539-0.539-0.353-0.353v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.353 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.9598
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0308
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.0304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8461
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3190
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1738
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1987
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3591
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6669
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.869 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.61e-4 · top T=2.67h (28.5%) · top-3 cover 58.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.5e-44.1e-42.7e-41.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 10.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.61e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.51e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.51e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.70e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.70e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.64e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.64e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.49e-4 · 28.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.49e-4 · 28.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.30e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.30e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.91e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.91e-4 · 9.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.43h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 28.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.928e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-18.36×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -13.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -13.81
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.57σ ann 107% · Sortino -10.03 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2348%-1853%-1358%-863%-367%128%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)106.6%Ann. vol σ-1956.8%Sharpe (ann)-1002.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0130.0130.0130.0140.014t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:40:53 UTC
Snapshot age
5.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:40:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6356272b46c36d33ca55876725d914cb0b23505f3a85937e0650dac8a4d81d3f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,317HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,668.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.79

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$24.01K
bid $12.18K · ask $11.83K
Mid price
0.012975
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
23.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.018
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.017
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SAGA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01299011.56bp0.0129901FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01300825.33bp0.0130305FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.013150134.73bp0.01331020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01296011.56bp0.0129601FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01294523.03bp0.0129304FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012807129.28bp0.01263020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$16.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SAGA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.339 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.27M
real volume
Sell weight
$10.68M
real volume
Net delta
$5.40M
sellers net
Imbalance
-33.87%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SAGA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 3.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 21:00:00Z5.0h0.013620→0.0131303.598%6
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z5.0h0.013370→0.0129603.067%6
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.013270→0.0130901.356%1

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
106.60%
σ per bar = 0.000465
Mean return (annualised)
-2085.98%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.57
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.50%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3596 bars

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/risk · same metrics, JSON