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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RSR

RSR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rsr · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.36%
realized vol (ann.)
78.43%
max drawdown
2.30%
sharpe
-36.39
ulcer index
1.10%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2586.62
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1344.04
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.36%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 21.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-RSR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
-0.36%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
RSR · live 24h price
n=22 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
22 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=22 · Σ=68,369,946 · μ=3107724.8 · σ=5460502.5 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1804,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 310772517,703,09650%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 17703096 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.0014
$mid $
$0.0014
◉prev-day close
$0.0014
Δ24h Δ %
-0.363%
$24h vol $
$95.21k
◐open interest $
$149.60k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=22 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0014 · 24h -0.36% · range $[0.0014, 0.0014]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=22 · up 10 · down 12 (45% up) · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0014 vs OPEN 0.0014 (+0.07%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ close = 0.0014O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)2.7%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
22 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=22 · Σ=68,369,946 · μ=3107724.8 · σ=5460502.5 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1804,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 31077252,042,222 · 11.5% peak2,042,222 · 11.5% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak17,703,09617,703,096 · 100.0% peak17,703,096 · 100.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak16,447,078 · 92.9% peak16,447,078 · 92.9% peak50%#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 68369946 · peak 17703096 · CV 1.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=21 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0070 · skew=0.89 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.75 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 3-100.97bpbin -100.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -100.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 1-72.35bpbin -72.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -72.35bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-43.74bpbin -43.74bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -43.74bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-15.13bpbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 713.49bpbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 142.10bpbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 370.72bpbin 70.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 70.72bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak99.33bp127.94bp156.56bp185.17bp 1213.79bpbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=21 · positive 6 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=21 · skew=1.12 · kurt=2.38 · near 15 / mid 5 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0014
Mid price
$0.0014
24h change
-0.36%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0014

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=22RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.96)
μ MEAN0.0014$95% CI: [0.0014$, 0.0014$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.77%
med MEDIAN0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$ · Q₃ 0.0014$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$med 0.0014$Q₃ 0.0014$max 0.0014$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.959right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.572mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.04
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.09
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.041259%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.054
σᵣ STD / h0.759294%σ²ᵣ = 0.577×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.40×
σ ANNUALISED71.07%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.759%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.09negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.27downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.21right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.42leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-361.43%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.134%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.149%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.143%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.03%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.134%VaR₉₉−1.149%ES₉₅−1.143%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.14$
−3.03% drawdown over 7h
0.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.12% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.271 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0014
Bollinger MA
$0.0014
Bollinger lower
$0.0014

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.106within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.177lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.992strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.165fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.992
H = 0.992STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.106k=2-0.177k=3+0.056k=4-0.097k=5+0.0960+1−1+0.44−0.44+ momentum (ρ > +0.44)− reversal (ρ < −0.44)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.21k
Open interest (USD)
$149.60k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.64x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.156× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.578× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.789×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=21 bars · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.50%BEARISH SESSION -0.87%BEST+2.28%22hWORST-1.15%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.07%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.86%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.87%+1.99%-1.08%-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.58% · 21h0.58% · 21h0.58%21h2.28% · 22h2.28% · 22h2.28%22h★ BEST-1.13% · 23h-1.13% · 23h-1.13%23h-0.50% · 00h-0.50% · 00h-0.50%00h0.36% · 01h0.36% · 01h0.36%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h-0.14% · 03h-0.14% · 03h-0.14%03h-1.15% · 04h-1.15% · 04h-1.15%04h▼ WORST-0.29% · 05h-0.29% · 05h-0.29%05h0.72% · 06h0.72% · 06h0.72%06h-0.43% · 07h-0.43% · 07h-0.43%07h0.72% · 08h0.72% · 08h0.72%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.94% · 12h-0.94% · 12h-0.94%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.86%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH29% up · 43% down · 29% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.499%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=22 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.92%)FINAL-0.92%MAX DD-3.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.98%UNDERWATER20/22 (91%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9908 · peak 1.0198 · range [0.9888, 1.0198]1.01980.9888break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0198UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.05% · moderate0%-3.05%▼ TROUGH -3.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.05%bar 9-22 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER91% of session · 20/22 bars
final equity 0.9908 (-0.92%) · max DD -3.05% · time-under-water 20/22 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=17 · +9 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=-1.20 · σ=37.04MIXED EDGELAST -2.28 (-0.03σ vs μ)55.9427.970.00-27.97-55.94μ = -1.20-41.86-41.8641.8641.8654.1954.1925.8825.8817.6317.6322.8922.8911.3511.35-55.94-55.94-55.87-55.87-49.50-49.50-30.27-30.27-36.06-36.06-9.98-9.9824.5324.5343.5643.5619.4319.43-2.28-2.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.276 · range [-55.94, 54.19] · μ -1.202 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=17 · μ=69.5473 · σ=32.7460 · range [24.2123, 121.9218] · R²=0.096▲ RISING +53.84%σ EXTREME 47.08%LAST 55.7919121.921897.494473.067148.639724.2123μ = 69.5473max 121.9218min 24.2123dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.79% · range [24.21%, 121.92%] · μ 69.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=17 · +3 / −14 (18% positive) · μ=-0.212 · σ=0.280MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.001 (+0.76σ vs μ)0.8280.4140.000-0.414-0.828μ = -0.212-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.0500.1700.170-0.381-0.381-0.175-0.175-0.177-0.177-0.309-0.3090.0990.099-0.138-0.138-0.055-0.055-0.038-0.038-0.154-0.154-0.196-0.196-0.828-0.828-0.757-0.757-0.571-0.5710.0010.001v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.001 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
15.3274
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0005
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.6987
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3559
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1630
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4480
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6541
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0209
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6133
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5397
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.866 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=10 bins · noise floor μ=5.77e-5 · top T=4.20h (27.1%) · top-3 cover 76.0%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-47.8e-53.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 21.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 21.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 10.5 · power 1.35e-4 · 23.4% energyperiod 10.5 · power 1.35e-4 · 23.4% energyperiod 7.0 · power 6.00e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 7.0 · power 6.00e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.77e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.77e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.2 · power 1.56e-4 · 27.1% energyperiod 4.2 · power 1.56e-4 · 27.1% energyperiod 3.5 · power 4.65e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.5 · power 4.65e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.54e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.54e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.47e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 2.6 · power 1.47e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 3.16e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 3.16e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.95e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.95e-5 · 3.4% energy50% by T=4.2h#1 dominantT=4.20h#2T=2.63h#3T=10.50hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.20h (freq 0.238) · concentrates 27.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.765e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.94×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -7.20400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -7.20
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -687% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.43σ ann 73% · Sortino -3.62 · n 4999
-1131%-888%-644%-400%-156%87%-686.7%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)72.8%Ann. vol σ-942.7%Sharpe (ann)-362.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:11:30 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
22 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:11:33 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e6fd6ea806cd9547fb7898967345b8fb2979f5d9e42c4784cc6c47afeb2b3e49 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,083.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.39

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$31.40K
bid $5.91K · ask $25.49K
Mid price
0.001373
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
21.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.181
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.542
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RSR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00137510.92bp0.0013751FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00137724.21bp0.0013783FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.001398175.19bp0.00167020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00137210.92bp0.0013721FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00136750.29bp0.0013548FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.001323364.75bp0.00055320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-RSR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 22 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★22$68.37M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RSR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.016 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$32.62M
real volume
Sell weight
$33.71M
real volume
Net delta
$1.08M
sellers net
Imbalance
-1.63%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 22-record window./api/asset/hl-RSR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.001401→0.0013761.784%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.001419→0.0013961.621%3
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.001392→0.0013790.934%1

/api/asset/hl-RSR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
72.84%
σ per bar = 0.000318
Mean return (annualised)
-686.69%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.43
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.99%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2620 bars

/api/asset/hl-RSR/risk · same metrics, JSON