Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

REZ

REZ-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rez · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.16%
realized vol (ann.)
85.92%
max drawdown
2.96%
sharpe
-59.88
ulcer index
1.82%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2827.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1849.80
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.16%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +1.16%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-REZ/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH525ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
1.16%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
REZ · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0032, 0.0035] · R²=0.234▲ RISING +0.72%σ NORMAL 2.33%LAST 0.00320.00350.00340.00330.00320.0032μ = 0.0032max 0.0035min 0.0032dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=102,748,464 · μ=4109938.6 · σ=6104336.9 · CV=1.49BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1905,918,94611,837,89317,756,83923,675,785μ = 410993923,675,78550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 23675785 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
525ms
$mark $
$0.0032
$mid $
$0.0032
◉prev-day close
$0.0032
Δ24h Δ %
+1.156%
$24h vol $
$341.63k
◐open interest $
$662.82k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0032, 0.0035] · R²=0.234▲ RISING +0.72%σ NORMAL 2.33%LAST 0.00320.00350.00340.00330.00320.0032μ = 0.0032max 0.0035min 0.0032dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0032 · 24h 1.16% · range $[0.0032, 0.0035]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0031, 0.0035] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +0.75%CLOSE 0.0032 vs OPEN 0.0032 (+0.75%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00320.00350.00340.00330.00320.0031μ close = 0.0032O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.40%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.16%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.00%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.23%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.23%)4.7%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+4.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+4.75%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.80%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.80%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+2.13%)O0.003 H0.004 L0.003 C0.003 (-2.51%)O0.003 H0.004 L0.003 C0.003 (-2.51%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.99%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.99%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.06%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.83%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-1.83%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.19%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.19%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.12%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.12%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=102,748,464 · μ=4109938.6 · σ=6104336.9 · CV=1.49BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1905,918,94611,837,89317,756,83923,675,785μ = 4109939797,469 · 3.4% peak797,469 · 3.4% peak693,663 · 2.9% peak693,663 · 2.9% peak8,339,151 · 35.2% peak8,339,151 · 35.2% peak701,521 · 3.0% peak701,521 · 3.0% peak1,171,078 · 4.9% peak1,171,078 · 4.9% peak765,412 · 3.2% peak765,412 · 3.2% peak1,584,224 · 6.7% peak1,584,224 · 6.7% peak691,361 · 2.9% peak691,361 · 2.9% peak2,227,029 · 9.4% peak2,227,029 · 9.4% peak637,196 · 2.7% peak637,196 · 2.7% peak526,073 · 2.2% peak526,073 · 2.2% peak803,990 · 3.4% peak803,990 · 3.4% peak728,682 · 3.1% peak728,682 · 3.1% peak593,015 · 2.5% peak593,015 · 2.5% peak6,250,053 · 26.4% peak6,250,053 · 26.4% peak3,369,267 · 14.2% peak3,369,267 · 14.2% peak5,354,701 · 22.6% peak5,354,701 · 22.6% peak15,160,203 · 64.0% peak15,160,203 · 64.0% peak18,136,734 · 76.6% peak18,136,734 · 76.6% peak23,675,78523,675,785 · 100.0% peak23,675,785 · 100.0% peak1,910,952 · 8.1% peak1,910,952 · 8.1% peak2,133,019 · 9.0% peak2,133,019 · 9.0% peak5,070,378 · 21.4% peak5,070,378 · 21.4% peak703,104 · 3.0% peak703,104 · 3.0% peak724,404 · 3.1% peak724,404 · 3.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 102748464 · peak 23675785 · CV 1.49

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0147 · skew=0.78 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.19 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 4-210.83bpbin -210.83bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -210.83bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak-152.70bp 2-94.56bpbin -94.56bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -94.56bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 4-36.43bpbin -36.43bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -36.43bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 921.70bpbin 21.70bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 21.70bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 179.83bpbin 79.83bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 79.83bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1137.96bpbin 137.96bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 137.96bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1196.09bpbin 196.09bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 196.09bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1254.22bpbin 254.22bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 254.22bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak312.35bp370.48bp 1428.61bpbin 428.61bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 428.61bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.94 · kurt=1.59 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0032
Mid price
$0.0032
24h change
+1.16%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0032

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.24)
μ MEAN0.0032$95% CI: [0.0032$, 0.0033$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.33%
med MEDIAN0.0032$Q₁ 0.0032$ · Q₃ 0.0033$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0032$Q₁ 0.0032$med 0.0032$Q₃ 0.0033$max 0.0035$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.236right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.519mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.06
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.88
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.78
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.029730%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.019
σᵣ STD / h1.565589%σ²ᵣ = 2.451×10⁻⁴ · CV = 52.66×
σ ANNUALISED146.53%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.566%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.78good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.10strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)39.78exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.00right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.28leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.18
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 39.78
EXPECTED EDGE+260.43%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.23%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.226%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.366%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.327%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.55%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.226%VaR₉₉−2.366%ES₉₅−2.327%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK0.35$
−6.55% drawdown over 4h
0.32$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.01% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.453 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0034
Bollinger MA
$0.0033
Bollinger lower
$0.0031

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.050within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.018lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.788strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.652significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.788
H = 0.788STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.050k=2-0.018k=3+0.184k=4-0.118k=5-0.3900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.65)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.63very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.65)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$341.63k
Open interest (USD)
$662.82k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.52x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
1.213× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.606× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.303×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.58% · worst -2.40% · typical |Δ| 0.99%MILD BULLISH +0.71%BEST+4.58%07hWORST-2.40%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.99%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.65% · Σ +5.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.45% · Σ -3.61%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.84%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.71%+7.21%-1.66%-0.19% · 17h-0.19% · 17h-0.19%17h0.53% · 18h0.53% · 18h0.53%18h-0.06% · 19h-0.06% · 19h-0.06%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.90% · 22h-0.90% · 22h-0.90%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h0.22% · 00h0.22% · 00h0.22%00h0.06% · 01h0.06% · 01h0.06%01h-0.09% · 02h-0.09% · 02h-0.09%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.98% · 04h-0.98% · 04h-0.98%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h1.29% · 06h1.29% · 06h1.29%06h4.58% · 07h4.58% · 07h4.58%07h★ BEST-1.99% · 08h-1.99% · 08h-1.99%08h2.82% · 09h2.82% · 09h2.82%09h2.08% · 10h2.08% · 10h2.08%10h-2.26% · 11h-2.26% · 11h-2.26%11h-2.40% · 12h-2.40% · 12h-2.40%12h▼ WORST-0.06% · 13h-0.06% · 13h-0.06%13h-2.06% · 14h-2.06% · 14h-2.06%14h0.25% · 15h0.25% · 15h0.25%15h0.03% · 16h0.03% · 16h0.03%16hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.17%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 4.58% · worst -2.40% · typical |Δ| 0.992%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.44%FINAL+0.44%MAX DD-6.62%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.25%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0044 · peak 1.0725 · range [0.9834, 1.0725]1.07250.9834break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0725UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.62% · significant0%-6.62%▼ TROUGH -6.62%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -6.62%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.00%bar 4-15 · 12 bars · recovered#3 -1.99%bar 17-17 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.62%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0044 (0.44%) · max DD -6.62% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-7.97 · σ=35.19MIXED EDGELAST -79.52 (-2.03σ vs μ)79.5239.760.00-39.76-79.52μ = -7.97-21.07-21.07-21.11-21.11-35.22-35.22-30.22-30.22-21.21-21.21-35.77-35.77-36.08-36.08-24.90-24.908.108.1038.5338.5320.4820.4837.1337.1361.0061.0037.4737.4714.4614.46-12.23-12.23-12.63-12.63-38.57-38.57-79.52-79.52v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -79.523 · range [-79.52, 61.00] · μ -7.966 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=131.7752 · σ=90.7900 · range [36.9416, 285.9636] · R²=0.581▲ RISING +150.26%σ EXTREME 68.90%LAST 119.1983285.9636223.7081161.452699.197136.9416μ = 131.7752max 285.9636min 36.9416dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 119.20% · range [36.94%, 285.96%] · μ 131.78% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.189 · σ=0.245MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.075 (+0.46σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.189-0.365-0.365-0.284-0.284-0.476-0.476-0.352-0.352-0.246-0.2460.1470.147-0.033-0.033-0.228-0.2280.0310.0310.2520.252-0.227-0.227-0.455-0.455-0.580-0.580-0.460-0.460-0.185-0.1850.0420.0420.2220.222-0.314-0.314-0.075-0.075v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.075 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.1902
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5018
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2595
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7005
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4378
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3648
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0923
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0248
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9802
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.008 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.52e-4 · top T=3.00h (16.7%) · top-3 cover 45.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.1e-43.8e-42.5e-41.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.98e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.98e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.52e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.52e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.11e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.11e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.83e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.40e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.40e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.73e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.73e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.07e-4 · 16.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.07e-4 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.18e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.18e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.27e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.27e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.37e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.37e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-4 · 13.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 16.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.027e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-13.62×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.55400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.55
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.83σ ann 168% · Sortino -17.32 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2740%-2152%-1563%-975%-387%201%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)167.6%Ann. vol σ-2283.2%Sharpe (ann)-1731.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0040.004t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:19:49 UTC
Snapshot age
525ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:19:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
96487d88f6fda834f9026224a4a8412178aebd0691c8a676e4069342988f06cb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,064.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.34

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$623
bid $424 · ask $199
Depth within 10bp
$4.85K
bid $3.21K · ask $1.64K
Depth within 50bp
$21.24K
bid $10.73K · ask $10.51K
Mid price
0.003238
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.074
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.180
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-REZ/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0032405.56bp0.0032402FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00324625.22bp0.00325411FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00326893.88bp0.00333020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0032364.87bp0.0032362FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00323219.34bp0.00322511FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00322153.39bp0.00319020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-REZ/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$102.75M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-REZ/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.116 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$56.91M
real volume
Sell weight
$45.05M
real volume
Net delta
$11.86M
buyers net
Imbalance
11.63%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-REZ/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 6.55% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z5.0h0.003452→0.0032266.547%6
#22026-06-14 08:00:00Z0ms0.003353→0.0032871.968%1
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.003221→0.0031841.149%3

/api/asset/hl-REZ/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
167.63%
σ per bar = 0.000731
Mean return (annualised)
-3827.40%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.83
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.36%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2121 bars

/api/asset/hl-REZ/risk · same metrics, JSON