Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NOT

NOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-not · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.28%
realized vol (ann.)
100.70%
max drawdown
0.74%
sharpe
-21.30
ulcer index
0.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.56%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3557.02
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2895.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.90
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
608
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.28%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-19.06%
signalLONGconfidence 46%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +2.28%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 24.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-NOT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
2.28%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
NOT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0004, 0.0004] · R²=0.383▲ RISING +2.03%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.00040.00040.00040.00040.00040.0004μ = 0.0004max 0.0004min 0.0004dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.9%Short fee 51.1%SHORT FEE51.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002176% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=71,023,387 · μ=2840935.5 · σ=3784825.5 · CV=1.33BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=902,723,9845,447,9678,171,95110,895,934μ = 284093510,895,93450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 10895934 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.3s
$mark $
$0.0004
$mid $
$0.0004
◉prev-day close
$0.0004
Δ24h Δ %
+2.284%
$24h vol $
$24.46k
◐open interest $
$226.30k
%funding (1h)
-0.002176%
%funding (yr)
-19.06%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0004, 0.0004] · R²=0.383▲ RISING +2.03%σ NORMAL 1.18%LAST 0.00040.00040.00040.00040.00040.0004μ = 0.0004max 0.0004min 0.0004dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0004 · 24h 2.28% · range $[0.0004, 0.0004]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0004, 0.0004] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=69%BULLISH +1.26%CLOSE 0.0004 vs OPEN 0.0004 (+1.26%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00040.00040.00040.00040.00040.0004μ close = 0.0004O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.76%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.76%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.27%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.27%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.50%)1.5%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.73%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.73%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.49%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.99%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.99%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.74%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.74%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=71,023,387 · μ=2840935.5 · σ=3784825.5 · CV=1.33BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=902,723,9845,447,9678,171,95110,895,934μ = 284093510,445,784 · 95.9% peak10,445,784 · 95.9% peak362,809 · 3.3% peak362,809 · 3.3% peak72,189 · 0.7% peak72,189 · 0.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak2,531,646 · 23.2% peak2,531,646 · 23.2% peak10,895,93410,895,934 · 100.0% peak10,895,934 · 100.0% peak6,658,173 · 61.1% peak6,658,173 · 61.1% peak397,426 · 3.6% peak397,426 · 3.6% peak5,882,714 · 54.0% peak5,882,714 · 54.0% peak10,622,726 · 97.5% peak10,622,726 · 97.5% peak9,323,456 · 85.6% peak9,323,456 · 85.6% peak35,159 · 0.3% peak35,159 · 0.3% peak37,223 · 0.3% peak37,223 · 0.3% peak230,449 · 2.1% peak230,449 · 2.1% peak1,794,361 · 16.5% peak1,794,361 · 16.5% peak1,889,244 · 17.3% peak1,889,244 · 17.3% peak3,329,973 · 30.6% peak3,329,973 · 30.6% peak366,128 · 3.4% peak366,128 · 3.4% peak73,983 · 0.7% peak73,983 · 0.7% peak131,921 · 1.2% peak131,921 · 1.2% peak3,017,798 · 27.7% peak3,017,798 · 27.7% peak2,213,294 · 20.3% peak2,213,294 · 20.3% peak340,741 · 3.1% peak340,741 · 3.1% peak38,076 · 0.3% peak38,076 · 0.3% peak332,180 · 3.0% peak332,180 · 3.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 71023387 · peak 10895934 · CV 1.33

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0008 · σ=0.0082 · skew=0.43 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.05 (mesokurtic)54310 2-132.33bpbin -132.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -132.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-101.43bpbin -101.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -101.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-70.53bpbin -70.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -70.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-39.62bpbin -39.62bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -39.62bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-8.72bpbin -8.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -8.72bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 422.18bpbin 22.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 22.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 253.09bpbin 53.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 53.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 183.99bpbin 83.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 83.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2114.89bpbin 114.89bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 114.89bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1145.80bpbin 145.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 145.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak176.70bp 1207.61bpbin 207.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 207.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.46 · kurt=0.20 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0004
Mid price
$0.0004
24h change
+2.28%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0004

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.54)
μ MEAN0.0004$95% CI: [0.0004$, 0.0004$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.18%
med MEDIAN0.0004$Q₁ 0.0004$ · Q₃ 0.0004$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0004$Q₁ 0.0004$med 0.0004$Q₃ 0.0004$max 0.0004$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.540left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.781mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.18
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.57
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.07
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.083755%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.097
σᵣ STD / h0.864174%σ²ᵣ = 0.747×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.32×
σ ANNUALISED80.88%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.864%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.07excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.36strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.49approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.55mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+733.69%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.21%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.206%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.424%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.362%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.19%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.206%VaR₉₉−1.424%ES₉₅−1.362%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK0.04$
−2.19% drawdown over 14h
0.04$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.24% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.240 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0004
Bollinger MA
$0.0004
Bollinger lower
$0.0004

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.351within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.056lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.844strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.782significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.844
H = 0.844STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.351k=2+0.056k=3+0.084k=4-0.231k=5+0.2040+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$24.46k
Open interest (USD)
$226.30k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.11x
1h funding
-0.002176%
Funding (annualised)
-19.06%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.23% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.64%MILD BULLISH +2.01%BEST+2.23%15hWORST-1.48%19hTYPICAL |Δ|0.64%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.01%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.44% · Σ +3.49%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.49%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.01%+4.22%0.00%0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.51% · 09h0.51% · 09h0.51%09h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.76% · 11h-0.76% · 11h-0.76%11h1.51% · 12h1.51% · 12h1.51%12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h-1.25% · 14h-1.25% · 14h-1.25%14h2.23% · 15h2.23% · 15h2.23%15h★ BEST-0.49% · 16h-0.49% · 16h-0.49%16h1.22% · 17h1.22% · 17h1.22%17h-0.49% · 18h-0.49% · 18h-0.49%18h-1.48% · 19h-1.48% · 19h-1.48%19h▼ WORST0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h-0.25% · 21h-0.25% · 21h-0.25%21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h0.25% · 23h0.25% · 23h0.25%23h0.74% · 00h0.74% · 00h0.74%00h-0.98% · 01h-0.98% · 01h-0.98%01h0.00% · 02h0.00% · 02h·02h0.25% · 03h0.25% · 03h0.25%03h0.00% · 04h0.00% · 04h·04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h-0.49% · 06h-0.49% · 06h-0.49%06h-0.50% · 07h-0.50% · 07h-0.50%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.49%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 38% down · 17% flat
11 up bars · 9 down · best 2.23% · worst -1.48% · typical |Δ| 0.641%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.94%FINAL+1.94%MAX DD-2.21%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.25%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0194 · peak 1.0425 · range [1.0000, 1.0425]1.04251.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0425UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.21% · moderate0%-2.21%▼ TROUGH -2.21%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.21%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.25%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.76%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.21%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0194 (1.94%) · max DD -2.21% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=6.41 · σ=25.85MIXED EDGELAST -38.29 (-1.73σ vs μ)50.3425.170.00-25.17-50.34μ = 6.4149.4849.4815.0015.0031.5531.5525.0025.0050.3450.3426.3626.36-2.65-2.6514.5314.53-21.42-21.42-4.16-4.16-26.47-26.47-0.00-0.0012.5412.546.316.3119.3719.376.766.76-0.00-0.00-42.51-42.51-38.29-38.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.285 · range [-42.51, 50.34] · μ 6.408 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=84.0257 · σ=34.2889 · range [28.3530, 136.7754] · R²=0.647▼ FALLING -61.66%σ EXTREME 40.81%LAST 28.3530136.7754109.669882.564255.458628.3530μ = 84.0257max 136.7754min 28.3530dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.35% · range [28.35%, 136.78%] · μ 84.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.272 · σ=0.285MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.434 (+2.48σ vs μ)0.8170.4090.000-0.409-0.817μ = -0.272-0.069-0.069-0.219-0.219-0.449-0.449-0.634-0.634-0.672-0.672-0.817-0.817-0.398-0.398-0.193-0.193-0.260-0.260-0.119-0.1190.0190.019-0.078-0.078-0.376-0.376-0.303-0.303-0.244-0.244-0.336-0.336-0.461-0.4610.0080.0080.4340.434v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.434 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2735
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5290
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2459
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4841
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1253
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1500
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0253
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3836
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.579 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.17e-5 · top T=2.40h (23.5%) · top-3 cover 51.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-41.0e-45.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.14e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.90e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.90e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.48e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.48e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.57e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.74e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.74e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.22e-4 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.22e-4 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-4 · 23.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-4 · 23.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.83e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.83e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.607e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4723 bars · effective 5249102 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.64× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.65× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.29%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.29%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.64×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.65×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.82×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.41×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.0×2.1×3.1×4.1×5.1×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.41× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.41× · bootstrap from 4722 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.81
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.12%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 11.06σ ann 670% · Sortino 3.34 · n 4722 · ⚠ capped (n=4722 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%265%531%796%1062%1327%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)670.2%Ann. vol σ1106.2%Sharpe (ann)333.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0010.001t-4722t-3935t-3148t-2361t-1574t-787t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:01 UTC
Snapshot age
5.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4c0b5dacfcc10b65289bc9eb2ff530609268e0d8ffe43a4e85d301edba75e15b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,672HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.12HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$24.28K
bid $11.71K · ask $12.57K
Mid price
0.000403
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
49.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.010
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.036
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NOT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00040424.81bp0.0004041FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00040427.02bp0.0004052FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0004621463.68bp0.00076320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00040224.81bp0.0004021FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00040231.09bp0.0004012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000388373.87bp0.00036220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.176e-5
-0.00218% / hr
Annualised APR
-19.072%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
19.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
19.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE19.072%19.2d191.5d
SHORTPAY-19.072%19.2d191.5d

/api/asset/hl-NOT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$71.02M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NOT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.472 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$44.58M
real volume
Sell weight
$15.99M
real volume
Net delta
$28.59M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.19%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-NOT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 19:00:00Z2.0h0.000411→0.0004031.946%3
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z0ms0.000404→0.0003991.238%1
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.000406→0.0004020.985%1

/api/asset/hl-NOT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,723 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
670.19%
σ per bar = 0.002925
Mean return (annualised)
7413.59%
μ per bar = 0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
11.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.02%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 4012 bars

/api/asset/hl-NOT/risk · same metrics, JSON