Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NEAR

NEAR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-near · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.13%
realized vol (ann.)
55.01%
max drawdown
1.74%
sharpe
-13.45
ulcer index
0.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1066.43
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-452.15
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.13%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +1.13%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-NEAR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.129
24h Δ · live
1.13%
24h vol · live
$23.0M
NEAR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1511 · σ=0.0191 · range [2.0995, 2.1872] · R²=0.048▲ RISING +1.39%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 2.12862.18722.16532.14332.12142.0995μ = 2.1511max 2.1872min 2.0995dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.13
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,041,376 · μ=441655.0 · σ=382136.9 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80353,127706,2541,059,3811,412,508μ = 4416551,412,508.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1412508 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$2.1286
$mid $
$2.1285
◉prev-day close
$2.1048
Δ24h Δ %
+1.131%
$24h vol $
$22.96M
◐open interest $
$81.11M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1511 · σ=0.0191 · range [2.0995, 2.1872] · R²=0.048▲ RISING +1.39%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 2.12862.18722.16532.14332.12142.0995μ = 2.1511max 2.1872min 2.0995dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.1286 · 24h 1.13% · range $[2.0995, 2.1872]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [2.0841, 2.1936] · σ=0.0191 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=55%BULLISH +0.88%CLOSE 2.1286 vs OPEN 2.1101 (+0.88%)&#9650; CLOSE 2.12862.19362.16622.13882.11152.0841μ close = 2.1511O2.110 H2.120 L2.098 C2.099 (-0.50%)O2.110 H2.120 L2.098 C2.099 (-0.50%)1.6%O2.100 H2.138 L2.084 C2.133 (+1.60%)O2.100 H2.138 L2.084 C2.133 (+1.60%)O2.132 H2.179 L2.124 C2.162 (+1.41%)O2.132 H2.179 L2.124 C2.162 (+1.41%)O2.163 H2.178 L2.142 C2.152 (-0.49%)O2.163 H2.178 L2.142 C2.152 (-0.49%)O2.151 H2.169 L2.146 C2.164 (+0.61%)O2.151 H2.169 L2.146 C2.164 (+0.61%)O2.164 H2.183 L2.132 C2.142 (-1.04%)O2.164 H2.183 L2.132 C2.142 (-1.04%)O2.142 H2.165 L2.137 C2.159 (+0.77%)O2.142 H2.165 L2.137 C2.159 (+0.77%)O2.158 H2.162 L2.137 C2.145 (-0.61%)O2.158 H2.162 L2.137 C2.145 (-0.61%)O2.144 H2.147 L2.118 C2.122 (-1.03%)O2.144 H2.147 L2.118 C2.122 (-1.03%)O2.123 H2.152 L2.123 C2.150 (+1.24%)O2.123 H2.152 L2.123 C2.150 (+1.24%)O2.150 H2.159 L2.125 C2.132 (-0.86%)O2.150 H2.159 L2.125 C2.132 (-0.86%)O2.132 H2.160 L2.130 C2.159 (+1.26%)O2.132 H2.160 L2.130 C2.159 (+1.26%)O2.159 H2.193 L2.154 C2.187 (+1.32%)O2.159 H2.193 L2.154 C2.187 (+1.32%)O2.186 H2.192 L2.156 C2.157 (-1.35%)O2.186 H2.192 L2.156 C2.157 (-1.35%)O2.156 H2.178 L2.151 C2.168 (+0.54%)O2.156 H2.178 L2.151 C2.168 (+0.54%)O2.169 H2.176 L2.153 C2.167 (-0.11%)O2.169 H2.176 L2.153 C2.167 (-0.11%)O2.168 H2.173 L2.157 C2.160 (-0.34%)O2.168 H2.173 L2.157 C2.160 (-0.34%)O2.160 H2.178 L2.156 C2.174 (+0.65%)O2.160 H2.178 L2.156 C2.174 (+0.65%)O2.175 H2.194 L2.167 C2.177 (+0.11%)O2.175 H2.194 L2.167 C2.177 (+0.11%)O2.177 H2.181 L2.156 C2.160 (-0.78%)O2.177 H2.181 L2.156 C2.160 (-0.78%)O2.159 H2.162 L2.139 C2.139 (-0.94%)O2.159 H2.162 L2.139 C2.139 (-0.94%)O2.141 H2.148 L2.134 C2.144 (+0.15%)O2.141 H2.148 L2.134 C2.144 (+0.15%)O2.144 H2.155 L2.138 C2.153 (+0.41%)O2.144 H2.155 L2.138 C2.153 (+0.41%)O2.153 H2.160 L2.136 C2.143 (-0.50%)O2.153 H2.160 L2.136 C2.143 (-0.50%)O2.143 H2.145 L2.122 C2.129 (-0.69%)O2.143 H2.145 L2.122 C2.129 (-0.69%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,041,376 · μ=441655.0 · σ=382136.9 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=80353,127706,2541,059,3811,412,508μ = 441655420,396.2 · 29.8% peak420,396.2 · 29.8% peak1,412,508.11,412,508.1 · 100.0% peak1,412,508.1 · 100.0% peak842,810.7 · 59.7% peak842,810.7 · 59.7% peak1,242,582.4 · 88.0% peak1,242,582.4 · 88.0% peak316,911.1 · 22.4% peak316,911.1 · 22.4% peak764,380 · 54.1% peak764,380 · 54.1% peak279,003 · 19.8% peak279,003 · 19.8% peak289,895.9 · 20.5% peak289,895.9 · 20.5% peak652,012 · 46.2% peak652,012 · 46.2% peak287,137.1 · 20.3% peak287,137.1 · 20.3% peak663,969.3 · 47.0% peak663,969.3 · 47.0% peak217,796.1 · 15.4% peak217,796.1 · 15.4% peak224,317.7 · 15.9% peak224,317.7 · 15.9% peak465,217.8 · 32.9% peak465,217.8 · 32.9% peak109,774 · 7.8% peak109,774 · 7.8% peak108,952.5 · 7.7% peak108,952.5 · 7.7% peak117,680.2 · 8.3% peak117,680.2 · 8.3% peak65,076.4 · 4.6% peak65,076.4 · 4.6% peak176,865.7 · 12.5% peak176,865.7 · 12.5% peak148,450.9 · 10.5% peak148,450.9 · 10.5% peak107,783.1 · 7.6% peak107,783.1 · 7.6% peak109,878.4 · 7.8% peak109,878.4 · 7.8% peak187,452.7 · 13.3% peak187,452.7 · 13.3% peak825,389.5 · 58.4% peak825,389.5 · 58.4% peak1,005,134.9 · 71.2% peak1,005,134.9 · 71.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11041376 · peak 1412508 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0087 · skew=0.17 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.30 (platykurtic (thin tails))32210 1-127.48bpbin -127.48bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -127.48bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 3-102.51bpbin -102.51bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -102.51bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 3-77.53bpbin -77.53bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -77.53bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 3-52.56bpbin -52.56bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin -52.56bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 1-27.59bpbin -27.59bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -27.59bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 1-2.61bpbin -2.61bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -2.61bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 222.36bpbin 22.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 22.36bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 347.33bpbin 47.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 47.33bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 272.30bpbin 72.30bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 72.30bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak97.28bp 3122.25bpbin 122.25bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 122.25bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 2147.22bpbin 147.22bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 147.22bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.17 · kurt=-1.25 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.1286
Mid price
$2.1285
24h change
+1.13%
Mark–mid spread
0.47 bps
Prev-day close
$2.1048

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.56)
μ MEAN2.1511$95% CI: [2.1436$, 2.1586$]
σ STD DEV0.0191$σ² = 3.657×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.89%
med MEDIAN2.1531$Q₁ 2.1417$ · Q₃ 2.1624$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0877$ · IQR 0.0207$ (1.349σ→0.0258$)
min 2.0995$Q₁ 2.1417$med 2.1531$Q₃ 2.1624$max 2.1872$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.557left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.285mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.25
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.59
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.89
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.057355%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.063
σᵣ STD / h0.911130%σ²ᵣ = 0.830×10⁻⁴ · CV = 15.89×
σ ANNUALISED85.28%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.911%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.89excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)6.61strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.18approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.25platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.12
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+502.43%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.074%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.326%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.239%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.68%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.074%VaR₉₉−1.326%ES₉₅−1.239%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK218.72$
−2.68% drawdown over 12h
212.86$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.75% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
49.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.134 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.1870
Bollinger MA
$2.1533
Bollinger lower
$2.1196

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.208within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.075lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.022strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.079fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.022
H = 1.022STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.208k=2-0.075k=3+0.204k=4-0.371k=5+0.2880+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$22.96M
Open interest (USD)
$81.11M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.28x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
6.909× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.454× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.727×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.79%MILD BULLISH +1.38%BEST+1.60%12hWORST-1.40%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.79%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.38%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.56%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.38%+4.09%0.00%1.60% · 12h1.60% · 12h1.60%12h★ BEST1.35% · 13h1.35% · 13h1.35%13h-0.48% · 14h-0.48% · 14h-0.48%14h0.57% · 15h0.57% · 15h0.57%15h-1.05% · 16h-1.05% · 16h-1.05%16h0.79% · 17h0.79% · 17h0.79%17h-0.63% · 18h-0.63% · 18h-0.63%18h-1.08% · 19h-1.08% · 19h-1.08%19h1.30% · 20h1.30% · 20h1.30%20h-0.85% · 21h-0.85% · 21h-0.85%21h1.26% · 22h1.26% · 22h1.26%22h1.31% · 23h1.31% · 23h1.31%23h-1.40% · 00h-1.40% · 00h-1.40%00h▼ WORST0.52% · 01h0.52% · 01h0.52%01h-0.06% · 02h-0.06% · 02h-0.06%02h-0.29% · 03h-0.29% · 03h-0.29%03h0.64% · 04h0.64% · 04h0.64%04h0.13% · 05h0.13% · 05h0.13%05h-0.78% · 06h-0.78% · 06h-0.78%06h-0.99% · 07h-0.99% · 07h-0.99%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.43% · 09h0.43% · 09h0.43%09h-0.49% · 10h-0.49% · 10h-0.49%10h-0.65% · 11h-0.65% · 11h-0.65%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.56%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.60% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.787%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.29%FINAL+1.29%MAX DD-2.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.10%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0129 · peak 1.0410 · range [1.0000, 1.0410]1.04101.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0410UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.70% · moderate0%-2.70%▼ TROUGH -2.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.70%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.97%bar 6-12 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -0.48%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0129 (1.29%) · max DD -2.70% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-4.15 · σ=26.51MIXED EDGELAST -61.21 (-2.15σ vs μ)61.2130.600.00-30.60-61.21μ = -4.1541.6941.699.109.10-36.36-36.36-1.55-1.55-23.08-23.0811.2711.2717.3917.396.416.4127.8927.8911.0211.0220.2220.2211.9711.97-9.81-9.814.664.66-35.12-35.12-26.29-26.29-7.90-7.90-39.12-39.12-61.21-61.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -61.208 · range [-61.21, 41.69] · μ -4.148 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=83.9736 · σ=23.1403 · range [49.3075, 123.9739] · R²=0.469▼ FALLING -44.72%σ EXTREME 27.56%LAST 53.7395123.9739105.307386.640767.974149.3075μ = 83.9736max 123.9739min 49.3075dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 53.74% · range [49.31%, 123.97%] · μ 83.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.258 · σ=0.298MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.182 (+1.48σ vs μ)0.6380.3190.000-0.319-0.638μ = -0.258-0.111-0.111-0.638-0.638-0.530-0.530-0.507-0.507-0.587-0.587-0.533-0.533-0.204-0.204-0.459-0.459-0.462-0.462-0.364-0.364-0.197-0.197-0.603-0.603-0.290-0.290-0.166-0.1660.2590.2590.0650.0650.2420.242-0.002-0.0020.1820.182v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.182 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7017
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4270
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.5926
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0867
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.9945
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0019
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2206
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3208
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0951
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.492 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.98e-5 · top T=2.67h (32.1%) · top-3 cover 59.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.1e-42.3e-41.5e-47.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.88e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.88e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.10e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.10e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.71e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.71e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.69e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.69e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.07e-4 · 32.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.07e-4 · 32.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.44e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.44e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 0.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 32.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.572e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-15.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.00400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -17.00
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.28σ ann 142% · Sortino -14.93 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2553%-2009%-1464%-919%-375%170%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)141.6%Ann. vol σ-2127.8%Sharpe (ann)-1493.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.0382.1102.1812.2522.3232.394t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:33:50 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:33:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b5d3e3dfe4f4a9e96f78b145f5dbc26016274f2e487b3b10680fe32e6d17c954 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,672HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$3.50K
bid $3.43K · ask $69
Depth within 5bp
$75.07K
bid $70.96K · ask $4.11K
Depth within 10bp
$160.57K
bid $103.78K · ask $56.79K
Depth within 50bp
$199.97K
bid $119.56K · ask $80.41K
Mid price
2.128550
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.196
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.843
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NEAR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.12933.50bp2.12944FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.12975.33bp2.130010FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.13058.94bp2.131120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.12840.69bp2.12842FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.12831.27bp2.12824FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.12764.41bp2.126815FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$11.04M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NEAR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.204 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.23M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.39M
real volume
Net delta
$2.16M
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.36%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-NEAR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h2.1644→2.12211.954%2
#22026-06-20 06:00:00Z2.0h2.1771→2.13891.755%3
#32026-06-20 00:00:00Z2.0h2.1872→2.15681.390%3

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
141.65%
σ per bar = 0.000618
Mean return (annualised)
-3013.96%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.28
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.78%
peak 2.30 → trough 2.12 over 3568 bars

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/risk · same metrics, JSON