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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

INJ

INJ-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-inj · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.87%
realized vol (ann.)
79.43%
max drawdown
2.97%
sharpe
-23.79
ulcer index
1.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1082.25
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-673.06
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.87%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.87%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-INJ/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH373ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$5.045
24h Δ · live
-2.87%
24h vol · live
$1.6M
INJ · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.1571 · σ=0.0696 · range [5.0160, 5.2742] · R²=0.629▼ FALLING -2.63%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 5.04655.27425.20965.14515.08065.0160μ = 5.1571max 5.2742min 5.0160dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $5.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=336,926 · μ=13477.0 · σ=11891.8 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11011,66123,32234,98246,643μ = 1347746,64350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 46643 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
373ms
$mark $
$5.0455
$mid $
$5.0455
◉prev-day close
$5.1945
Δ24h Δ %
-2.868%
$24h vol $
$1.64M
◐open interest $
$3.30M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.1571 · σ=0.0696 · range [5.0160, 5.2742] · R²=0.629▼ FALLING -2.63%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 5.04655.27425.20965.14515.08065.0160μ = 5.1571max 5.2742min 5.0160dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $5.0455 · 24h -2.87% · range $[5.0160, 5.2742]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [4.9854, 5.2986] · σ=0.0696 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -4.67%CLOSE 5.0465 vs OPEN 5.2937 (-4.67%)&#9660; CLOSE 5.04655.29865.22035.14205.06374.9854μ close = 5.1571-2.1%O5.294 H5.294 L5.148 C5.183 (-2.10%)O5.294 H5.294 L5.148 C5.183 (-2.10%)O5.184 H5.228 L5.156 C5.168 (-0.31%)O5.184 H5.228 L5.156 C5.168 (-0.31%)O5.168 H5.208 L5.156 C5.184 (+0.31%)O5.168 H5.208 L5.156 C5.184 (+0.31%)O5.189 H5.228 L5.182 C5.190 (+0.02%)O5.189 H5.228 L5.182 C5.190 (+0.02%)O5.187 H5.207 L5.147 C5.207 (+0.39%)O5.187 H5.207 L5.147 C5.207 (+0.39%)O5.203 H5.268 L5.183 C5.245 (+0.81%)O5.203 H5.268 L5.183 C5.245 (+0.81%)O5.247 H5.258 L5.213 C5.213 (-0.65%)O5.247 H5.258 L5.213 C5.213 (-0.65%)O5.214 H5.299 L5.210 C5.274 (+1.16%)O5.214 H5.299 L5.210 C5.274 (+1.16%)O5.269 H5.271 L5.223 C5.237 (-0.62%)O5.269 H5.271 L5.223 C5.237 (-0.62%)O5.235 H5.280 L5.226 C5.257 (+0.41%)O5.235 H5.280 L5.226 C5.257 (+0.41%)O5.256 H5.281 L5.187 C5.221 (-0.67%)O5.256 H5.281 L5.187 C5.221 (-0.67%)O5.220 H5.245 L5.191 C5.206 (-0.27%)O5.220 H5.245 L5.191 C5.206 (-0.27%)O5.207 H5.208 L5.140 C5.147 (-1.15%)O5.207 H5.208 L5.140 C5.147 (-1.15%)O5.146 H5.155 L5.104 C5.151 (+0.11%)O5.146 H5.155 L5.104 C5.151 (+0.11%)O5.152 H5.179 L5.113 C5.119 (-0.63%)O5.152 H5.179 L5.113 C5.119 (-0.63%)O5.123 H5.141 L5.101 C5.131 (+0.17%)O5.123 H5.141 L5.101 C5.131 (+0.17%)O5.131 H5.161 L5.117 C5.136 (+0.10%)O5.131 H5.161 L5.117 C5.136 (+0.10%)O5.134 H5.170 L5.117 C5.151 (+0.33%)O5.134 H5.170 L5.117 C5.151 (+0.33%)O5.150 H5.176 L5.105 C5.105 (-0.89%)O5.150 H5.176 L5.105 C5.105 (-0.89%)O5.109 H5.159 L5.094 C5.129 (+0.40%)O5.109 H5.159 L5.094 C5.129 (+0.40%)O5.130 H5.130 L5.058 C5.081 (-0.96%)O5.130 H5.130 L5.058 C5.081 (-0.96%)O5.084 H5.143 L5.068 C5.105 (+0.41%)O5.084 H5.143 L5.068 C5.105 (+0.41%)O5.104 H5.104 L4.985 C5.016 (-1.72%)O5.104 H5.104 L4.985 C5.016 (-1.72%)O5.020 H5.062 L5.017 C5.027 (+0.13%)O5.020 H5.062 L5.017 C5.027 (+0.13%)O5.030 H5.046 L5.018 C5.046 (+0.33%)O5.030 H5.046 L5.018 C5.046 (+0.33%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=336,926 · μ=13477.0 · σ=11891.8 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11011,66123,32234,98246,643μ = 1347731,694.9 · 68.0% peak31,694.9 · 68.0% peak11,632.7 · 24.9% peak11,632.7 · 24.9% peak12,601.4 · 27.0% peak12,601.4 · 27.0% peak12,211.5 · 26.2% peak12,211.5 · 26.2% peak13,239.5 · 28.4% peak13,239.5 · 28.4% peak8,302.4 · 17.8% peak8,302.4 · 17.8% peak3,557.1 · 7.6% peak3,557.1 · 7.6% peak46,64346,643 · 100.0% peak46,643 · 100.0% peak14,608.9 · 31.3% peak14,608.9 · 31.3% peak11,832.4 · 25.4% peak11,832.4 · 25.4% peak46,076.9 · 98.8% peak46,076.9 · 98.8% peak7,902.4 · 16.9% peak7,902.4 · 16.9% peak5,847.7 · 12.5% peak5,847.7 · 12.5% peak9,346.7 · 20.0% peak9,346.7 · 20.0% peak4,614.8 · 9.9% peak4,614.8 · 9.9% peak1,643.8 · 3.5% peak1,643.8 · 3.5% peak4,573.4 · 9.8% peak4,573.4 · 9.8% peak4,207.8 · 9.0% peak4,207.8 · 9.0% peak11,544.2 · 24.8% peak11,544.2 · 24.8% peak22,924.1 · 49.1% peak22,924.1 · 49.1% peak17,078.4 · 36.6% peak17,078.4 · 36.6% peak5,900.2 · 12.6% peak5,900.2 · 12.6% peak14,035.6 · 30.1% peak14,035.6 · 30.1% peak11,812.5 · 25.3% peak11,812.5 · 25.3% peak3,093.2 · 6.6% peak3,093.2 · 6.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 336926 · peak 46643 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0065 · skew=-0.51 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.49 (mesokurtic)75420 1-163.12bpbin -163.12bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -163.12bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-138.79bp 1-114.45bpbin -114.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -114.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-90.12bpbin -90.12bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -90.12bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 4-65.79bpbin -65.79bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -65.79bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak-41.45bp 2-17.12bpbin -17.12bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -17.12bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 37.21bpbin 7.21bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 7.21bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 731.55bpbin 31.55bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 31.55bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 255.88bpbin 55.88bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 55.88bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 180.21bpbin 80.21bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 80.21bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1104.55bpbin 104.55bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 104.55bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.51 · kurt=-0.24 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$5.0455
Mid price
$5.0455
24h change
-2.87%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$5.1945

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN5.1571$95% CI: [5.1299$, 5.1844$]
σ STD DEV0.0696$σ² = 48.423×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.35%
med MEDIAN5.1512$Q₁ 5.1189$ · Q₃ 5.2073$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2582$ · IQR 0.0884$ (1.349σ→0.0939$)
min 5.0160$Q₁ 5.1189$med 5.1512$Q₃ 5.2073$max 5.2742$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.321approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.757mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.06
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-15.21
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.110883%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.162
σᵣ STD / h0.682477%σ²ᵣ = 0.466×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.15×
σ ANNUALISED63.88%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.682%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-15.21negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.54left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.00mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.76
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-971.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.10%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.103%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.610%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.442%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.90%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.103%VaR₉₉−1.610%ES₉₅−1.442%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK527.42$
−4.90% drawdown over 15h
501.60$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.46× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +5.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.161 · within band
Bollinger upper
$5.3021
Bollinger MA
$5.1499
Bollinger lower
$4.9976

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.467negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.500lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.987strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.246significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.987
H = 0.987STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,2
k=1-0.467k=2 ★+0.500k=3-0.337k=4+0.254k=5-0.3030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.25)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.25)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.64M
Open interest (USD)
$3.30M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.50x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.17% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.55%MILD BEARISH -2.66%BEST+1.17%23hWORST-1.75%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.74%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.06%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.27% · Σ +2.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.66%+1.75%-3.27%-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h0.31% · 18h0.31% · 18h0.31%18h0.12% · 19h0.12% · 19h0.12%19h0.33% · 20h0.33% · 20h0.33%20h0.72% · 21h0.72% · 21h0.72%21h-0.61% · 22h-0.61% · 22h-0.61%22h1.17% · 23h1.17% · 23h1.17%23h★ BEST-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h0.39% · 01h0.39% · 01h0.39%01h-0.70% · 02h-0.70% · 02h-0.70%02h-0.28% · 03h-0.28% · 03h-0.28%03h-1.13% · 04h-1.13% · 04h-1.13%04h0.07% · 05h0.07% · 05h0.07%05h-0.63% · 06h-0.63% · 06h-0.63%06h0.24% · 07h0.24% · 07h0.24%07h0.10% · 08h0.10% · 08h0.10%08h0.28% · 09h0.28% · 09h0.28%09h-0.90% · 10h-0.90% · 10h-0.90%10h0.48% · 11h0.48% · 11h0.48%11h-0.94% · 12h-0.94% · 12h-0.94%12h0.46% · 13h0.46% · 13h0.46%13h-1.75% · 14h-1.75% · 14h-1.75%14h▼ WORST0.21% · 15h0.21% · 15h0.21%15h0.40% · 16h0.40% · 16h0.40%16hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+2.15%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.17% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.550%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.68%)FINAL-2.68%MAX DD-4.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.75%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9732 · peak 1.0175 · range [0.9673, 1.0175]1.01750.9673break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0175UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.94% · moderate0%-4.94%▼ TROUGH -4.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -4.94%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.61%bar 7-7 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.29%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9732 (-2.68%) · max DD -4.94% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-19.00 · σ=33.51UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -19.15 (-0.00σ vs μ)73.1736.590.00-36.59-73.17μ = -19.0019.2219.2253.4953.4921.5221.5227.0227.024.804.80-15.23-15.23-23.24-23.24-65.41-65.41-64.03-64.03-73.17-73.17-48.17-48.17-29.02-29.02-26.07-26.07-11.99-11.99-18.33-18.33-12.33-12.33-39.64-39.64-41.31-41.31-19.15-19.15v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -19.149 · range [-73.17, 53.49] · μ -19.001 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=63.2520 · σ=14.6551 · range [44.4285, 87.5771] · R²=0.093▲ RISING +97.12%σ EXTREME 23.17%LAST 87.577187.577176.790066.002855.215744.4285μ = 63.2520max 87.5771min 44.4285dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 87.58% · range [44.43%, 87.58%] · μ 63.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.557 · σ=0.185MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.548 (+0.04σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.557-0.320-0.320-0.640-0.640-0.738-0.738-0.796-0.796-0.751-0.751-0.662-0.662-0.332-0.332-0.603-0.603-0.526-0.526-0.549-0.549-0.295-0.295-0.183-0.183-0.341-0.341-0.524-0.524-0.557-0.557-0.754-0.754-0.664-0.664-0.792-0.792-0.548-0.548v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.548 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1665
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5581
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
21.4055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0008
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7144
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8362
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6972
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0138
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8551
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3925
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.740 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.14e-5 · top T=2.00h (54.5%) · top-3 cover 77.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.0e-43.0e-42.0e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.40e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.85e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.85e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.09e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.09e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.96e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.96e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.22e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.22e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.02e-4 · 54.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.02e-4 · 54.5% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 54.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.364e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-39.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -28.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.013
annualized -28.91
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -26.28σ ann 67% · Sortino -22.93 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3153%-2506%-1860%-1213%-566%81%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)67.3%Ann. vol σ-2627.6%Sharpe (ann)-2292.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.7944.9125.0315.1495.2685.386t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:20:04 UTC
Snapshot age
373ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:20:04 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
04bd9d5dd50cc9c362bd736846960fe222cc1219c544aeb0695eb62a530a683b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,065.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.36

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$10.90K
bid $2.84K · ask $8.06K
Depth within 10bp
$25.64K
bid $6.90K · ask $18.74K
Depth within 50bp
$74.97K
bid $31.98K · ask $42.99K
Mid price
5.046100
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.146
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.478
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-INJ/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K5.04691.67bp5.04722FILLED
BUY$10.00K5.04813.90bp5.04876FILLED
BUY$100.00K5.051210.07bp5.055120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K5.04512.08bp5.04472FILLED
SELL$10.00K5.04208.03bp5.039612FILLED
SELL$100.00K5.039213.66bp5.035820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-INJ/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$5.0000–$6.0000★25$336.93K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-INJ/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.103 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$168.33K
real volume
Sell weight
$136.90K
real volume
Net delta
$31.43K
buyers net
Imbalance
10.30%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
10.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-INJ/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.94% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h5.2742→5.11892.945%5
#22026-06-14 14:00:00Z2.0h5.1292→5.01602.207%3
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms5.1509→5.08121.353%1

/api/asset/hl-INJ/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
67.35%
σ per bar = 0.000294
Mean return (annualised)
-1769.58%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.28
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.59%
peak 5.18 → trough 4.99 over 2539 bars

/api/asset/hl-INJ/risk · same metrics, JSON