Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GMT

GMT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gmt · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.69%
realized vol (ann.)
70.23%
max drawdown
2.50%
sharpe
-46.31
ulcer index
1.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2333.99
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1471.09
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.69%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.69%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-GMT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-4.69%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GMT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0082 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0080, 0.0084] · R²=0.889▼ FALLING -3.97%σ NORMAL 1.38%LAST 0.00800.00840.00830.00820.00810.0080μ = 0.0082max 0.0084min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,966,148 · μ=398645.9 · σ=187833.7 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130228,930457,860686,790915,720μ = 398646915,72050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 915720 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.008
$mid $
$0.008
◉prev-day close
$0.0084
Δ24h Δ %
-4.686%
$24h vol $
$81.63k
◐open interest $
$221.50k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0082 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0080, 0.0084] · R²=0.889▼ FALLING -3.97%σ NORMAL 1.38%LAST 0.00800.00840.00830.00820.00810.0080μ = 0.0082max 0.0084min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.89μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0080 · 24h -4.69% · range $[0.0080, 0.0084]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.0079, 0.0085] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%STRONG BEARISH -4.91%CLOSE 0.0080 vs OPEN 0.0085 (-4.91%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00800.00850.00830.00820.00810.0079μ close = 0.0082O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.98%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.98%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.29%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.93%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.68%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.01%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.01%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.83%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.83%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.59%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.06%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.06%)-1.1%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.14%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.14%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.13%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.03%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.03%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.40%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.16%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.02%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.02%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.04%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.09%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,966,148 · μ=398645.9 · σ=187833.7 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130228,930457,860686,790915,720μ = 398646915,720915,720 · 100.0% peak915,720 · 100.0% peak417,543 · 45.6% peak417,543 · 45.6% peak237,821 · 26.0% peak237,821 · 26.0% peak211,255 · 23.1% peak211,255 · 23.1% peak190,360 · 20.8% peak190,360 · 20.8% peak459,804 · 50.2% peak459,804 · 50.2% peak300,064 · 32.8% peak300,064 · 32.8% peak200,446 · 21.9% peak200,446 · 21.9% peak579,256 · 63.3% peak579,256 · 63.3% peak435,143 · 47.5% peak435,143 · 47.5% peak234,250 · 25.6% peak234,250 · 25.6% peak546,328 · 59.7% peak546,328 · 59.7% peak657,334 · 71.8% peak657,334 · 71.8% peak325,889 · 35.6% peak325,889 · 35.6% peak268,884 · 29.4% peak268,884 · 29.4% peak470,351 · 51.4% peak470,351 · 51.4% peak432,382 · 47.2% peak432,382 · 47.2% peak326,283 · 35.6% peak326,283 · 35.6% peak338,530 · 37.0% peak338,530 · 37.0% peak527,689 · 57.6% peak527,689 · 57.6% peak409,086 · 44.7% peak409,086 · 44.7% peak529,959 · 57.9% peak529,959 · 57.9% peak653,460 · 71.4% peak653,460 · 71.4% peak225,096 · 24.6% peak225,096 · 24.6% peak73,215 · 8.0% peak73,215 · 8.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9966148 · peak 915720 · CV 0.47

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0017 · σ=0.0053 · skew=0.11 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.57 (mesokurtic)54310 3-101.35bpbin -101.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -101.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-84.14bpbin -84.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -84.14bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-66.93bpbin -66.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -66.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-49.72bpbin -49.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -49.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-32.51bpbin -32.51bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -32.51bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-15.30bpbin -15.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -15.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 51.91bpbin 1.91bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 1.91bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 419.12bpbin 19.12bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 19.12bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak36.33bp 153.54bpbin 53.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 53.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak70.75bp 287.96bpbin 87.96bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 87.96bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.16 · kurt=-0.26 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.008
Mid price
$0.008
24h change
-4.69%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0084

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.27)
μ MEAN0.0082$95% CI: [0.0082$, 0.0083$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.38%
med MEDIAN0.0082$Q₁ 0.0081$ · Q₃ 0.0083$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0080$Q₁ 0.0081$med 0.0082$Q₃ 0.0083$max 0.0084$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.199approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.271platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.83
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-28.58
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.168681%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.305
σᵣ STD / h0.552444%σ²ᵣ = 0.305×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.28×
σ ANNUALISED51.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.552%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-28.58negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.21downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.18approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.03mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1477.65%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.066%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.093%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.086%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.37%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.066%VaR₉₉−1.093%ES₉₅−1.086%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK0.84$
−4.37% drawdown over 21h
0.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.57% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.5 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.139 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0084
Bollinger MA
$0.0082
Bollinger lower
$0.0080

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.290within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.006lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.753strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-13.602significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.753
H = 0.753STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.290k=2-0.006k=3-0.303k=4+0.300k=5-0.2800+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.80very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$81.63k
Open interest (USD)
$221.50k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.37x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -4.05%BEST+0.97%08hWORST-1.10%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.05%+0.16%-4.31%0.16% · 17h0.16% · 17h0.16%17h-0.54% · 18h-0.54% · 18h-0.54%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h-0.47% · 20h-0.47% · 20h-0.47%20h0.95% · 21h0.95% · 21h0.95%21h-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h-0.76% · 00h-0.76% · 00h-0.76%00h0.47% · 01h0.47% · 01h0.47%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.04% · 03h0.04% · 03h0.04%03h-1.07% · 04h-1.07% · 04h-1.07%04h-0.21% · 05h-0.21% · 05h-0.21%05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.97% · 08h0.97% · 08h0.97%08h★ BEST0.11% · 09h0.11% · 09h0.11%09h-1.10% · 10h-1.10% · 10h-1.10%10h▼ WORST-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h0.16% · 12h0.16% · 12h0.16%12h-0.41% · 13h-0.41% · 13h-0.41%13h-1.03% · 14h-1.03% · 14h-1.03%14h0.16% · 15h0.16% · 15h0.16%15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.42%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 0.97% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.430%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.00%)FINAL-4.00%MAX DD-4.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.16%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9600 · peak 1.0016 · range [0.9574, 1.0016]1.00160.9574break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0016UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.40% · moderate0%-4.40%▼ TROUGH -4.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.40%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9600 (-4.00%) · max DD -4.40% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-30.48 · σ=24.53UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -43.04 (-0.51σ vs μ)72.9236.460.00-36.46-72.92μ = -30.48-13.75-13.75-17.75-17.75-22.19-22.19-9.98-9.98-12.52-12.52-46.81-46.81-51.01-51.01-58.76-58.76-39.47-39.47-69.95-69.95-9.03-9.03-7.25-7.25-7.81-7.81-9.23-9.23-5.42-5.42-12.28-12.28-72.92-72.92-70.04-70.04-43.04-43.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.035 · range [-72.92, -5.42] · μ -30.485 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.8629 · σ=7.3395 · range [40.3681, 64.8259] · R²=0.012▼ FALLING -22.06%σ HIGH 13.14%LAST 43.624164.825958.711552.597046.482540.3681μ = 55.8629max 64.8259min 40.3681dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.62% · range [40.37%, 64.83%] · μ 55.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.327 · σ=0.308MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.115 (+0.69σ vs μ)0.7930.3960.000-0.396-0.793μ = -0.327-0.645-0.645-0.630-0.630-0.566-0.566-0.637-0.637-0.562-0.562-0.793-0.793-0.634-0.634-0.634-0.634-0.402-0.402-0.368-0.368-0.000-0.0000.1240.124-0.027-0.0270.0800.0800.0590.0590.0280.028-0.254-0.254-0.242-0.242-0.115-0.115v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.115 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1245
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9396
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.4071
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0638
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7618
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8252
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.9339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0531
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8761
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1977
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2310
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.636 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.53e-5 · top T=2.00h (34.2%) · top-3 cover 59.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.83e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.83e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.82e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.82e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.01e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.01e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.54e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.54e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.61e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.61e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.83e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.83e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.01e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.01e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 34.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 34.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 34.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.233e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-33.37×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.79400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -19.79
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -20.94σ ann 63% · Sortino -13.51 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2513%-1995%-1477%-960%-442%75%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)62.8%Ann. vol σ-2093.9%Sharpe (ann)-1350.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:18:13 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:18:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e9fca22e8ccaca7ac8107dc8033ad66c410fb40438039d6d19af80c324b35513 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,069.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.28

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.34K
bid $1.88K · ask $459
Depth within 50bp
$47.39K
bid $12.70K · ask $34.69K
Mid price
0.008036
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.369
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.204
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-GMT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0080439.66bp0.0080464FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00805018.24bp0.0080526FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00807548.74bp0.00812520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0080306.44bp0.0080302FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00801525.03bp0.00800511FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00800142.34bp0.00796620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-GMT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.97M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-GMT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.174 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.74M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.31M
real volume
Net delta
$1.58M
sellers net
Imbalance
-17.43%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-GMT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.61% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z6.0h0.008230→0.0080152.612%7
#22026-06-14 02:00:00Z4.0h0.008325→0.0081502.102%5
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.008377→0.0082621.373%3

/api/asset/hl-GMT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
62.76%
σ per bar = 0.000274
Mean return (annualised)
-1314.01%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.78%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3086 bars

/api/asset/hl-GMT/risk · same metrics, JSON