Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FOGO

FOGO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fogo · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.05%
realized vol (ann.)
69.29%
max drawdown
1.91%
sharpe
-3.02
ulcer index
0.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.76%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-228.99
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-120.23
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.05%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.05%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-FOGO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH420ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
-3.05%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
FOGO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0129] · R²=0.872▼ FALLING -2.76%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.01250.01290.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0129min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,643,854 · μ=145754.2 · σ=151414.6 · CV=1.04BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 145754569,08450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 569084 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
420ms
$mark $
$0.0126
$mid $
$0.0126
◉prev-day close
$0.0129
Δ24h Δ %
-3.051%
$24h vol $
$44.71k
◐open interest $
$360.50k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0127 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0125, 0.0129] · R²=0.872▼ FALLING -2.76%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.01250.01290.01280.01270.01260.0125μ = 0.0127max 0.0129min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0126 · 24h -3.05% · range $[0.0125, 0.0129]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0124, 0.0130] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%STRONG BEARISH -3.05%CLOSE 0.0125 vs OPEN 0.0129 (-3.05%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01250.01300.01280.01270.01250.0124μ close = 0.0127O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.29%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.66%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.16%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.71%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.36%)-1.1%O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.72%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.51%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.19%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.26%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.11%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.73%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.73%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.27%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.27%)O0.012 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (+0.33%)O0.012 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (+0.33%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,643,854 · μ=145754.2 · σ=151414.6 · CV=1.04BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130142,271284,542426,813569,084μ = 145754203,933 · 35.8% peak203,933 · 35.8% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak121,685 · 21.4% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak45,170 · 7.9% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak266,555 · 46.8% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak69,782 · 12.3% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak161,597 · 28.4% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak61,810 · 10.9% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak390,439 · 68.6% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak122,194 · 21.5% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak114,868 · 20.2% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak88,613 · 15.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak43,085 · 7.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak145,464 · 25.6% peak569,084569,084 · 100.0% peak569,084 · 100.0% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak19,598 · 3.4% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak40,327 · 7.1% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak36,194 · 6.4% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak94,432 · 16.6% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak185,983 · 32.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak83,559 · 14.7% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak104,809 · 18.4% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak60,415 · 10.6% peak557,832 · 98.0% peak557,832 · 98.0% peak44,682 · 7.9% peak44,682 · 7.9% peak11,744 · 2.1% peak11,744 · 2.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3643854 · peak 569084 · CV 1.04

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0043 · skew=0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.76 (mesokurtic)54310 1-84.00bpbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -84.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-70.20bpbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -70.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-56.41bpbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-42.61bpbin -42.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -42.61bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-28.82bpbin -28.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -28.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-15.02bpbin -15.02bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -15.02bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-1.23bpbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -1.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 312.57bpbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 12.57bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 126.36bpbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 26.36bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 140.16bpbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 40.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 153.95bpbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 53.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 267.75bpbin 67.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 67.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.16 · kurt=-0.69 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0126
Mid price
$0.0126
24h change
-3.05%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0129

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.61)
μ MEAN0.0127$95% CI: [0.0126$, 0.0127$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.13%
med MEDIAN0.0127$Q₁ 0.0126$ · Q₃ 0.0128$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0125$Q₁ 0.0126$med 0.0127$Q₃ 0.0128$max 0.0129$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.086approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.610platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-24.84
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.116649%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.265
σᵣ STD / h0.439492%σ²ᵣ = 0.193×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.77×
σ ANNUALISED41.13%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.439%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-24.84negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.36downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.17approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.56mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1021.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.70%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.696%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.860%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.804%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.48%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.696%VaR₉₉−0.860%ES₉₅−0.804%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK1.29$
−3.48% drawdown over 20h
1.25$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.60% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.291 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0129
Bollinger MA
$0.0126
Bollinger lower
$0.0124

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.104within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.139lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.926strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-12.514significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.926
H = 0.926STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.104k=2-0.139k=3-0.078k=4-0.404k=5+0.1250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.51)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.51)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$44.71k
Open interest (USD)
$360.50k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.36%BEARISH SESSION -2.80%BEST+0.75%19hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.31%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.63%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.86%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.80%+0.11%-3.43%-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h0.75% · 19h0.75% · 19h0.75%19h★ BEST-0.39% · 20h-0.39% · 20h-0.39%20h0.03% · 21h0.03% · 21h0.03%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.70% · 23h-0.70% · 23h-0.70%23h0.50% · 00h0.50% · 00h0.50%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.12% · 02h-0.12% · 02h-0.12%02h0.40% · 03h0.40% · 03h0.40%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST-0.69% · 05h-0.69% · 05h-0.69%05h-0.46% · 06h-0.46% · 06h-0.46%06h-0.16% · 07h-0.16% · 07h-0.16%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.10% · 09h0.10% · 09h0.10%09h-0.12% · 10h-0.12% · 10h-0.12%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11h-0.11% · 12h-0.11% · 12h-0.11%12h0.19% · 13h0.19% · 13h0.19%13h-0.68% · 14h-0.68% · 14h-0.68%14h-0.24% · 15h-0.24% · 15h-0.24%15h0.63% · 16h0.63% · 16h0.63%16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.63%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.75% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.364%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.78%)FINAL-2.78%MAX DD-3.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.10%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9722 · peak 1.0010 · range [0.9661, 1.0010]1.00100.9661break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0010UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.50% · moderate0%-3.50%▼ TROUGH -3.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.50%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.64%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9722 (-2.78%) · max DD -3.50% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-29.15 · σ=23.26UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -7.95 (+0.91σ vs μ)64.8132.400.00-32.40-64.81μ = -29.15-25.84-25.84-38.67-38.67-9.34-9.34-33.17-33.17-24.67-24.67-10.63-10.63-18.83-18.83-18.60-18.60-51.59-51.59-64.81-64.81-47.25-47.25-64.69-64.69-48.90-48.90-26.58-26.58-6.37-6.3728.8928.89-32.67-32.67-52.26-52.26-7.95-7.95v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -7.948 · range [-64.81, 28.89] · μ -29.153 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.4855 · σ=12.6214 · range [14.4866, 54.9871] · R²=0.481▼ FALLING -8.67%σ EXTREME 31.96%LAST 40.972454.987144.862034.736924.611714.4866μ = 39.4855max 54.9871min 14.4866dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 40.97% · range [14.49%, 54.99%] · μ 39.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.061 · σ=0.272MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.178 (-0.43σ vs μ)0.5580.2790.000-0.279-0.558μ = -0.061-0.536-0.536-0.260-0.260-0.224-0.224-0.074-0.074-0.025-0.0250.0150.015-0.370-0.3700.1160.1160.0640.064-0.031-0.031-0.027-0.0270.5580.5580.4680.4680.1630.163-0.176-0.176-0.004-0.004-0.378-0.378-0.261-0.261-0.178-0.178v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.178 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8094
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6160
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2499
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2400
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6545
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.747 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.92e-5 · top T=2.67h (30.6%) · top-3 cover 60.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.1e-55.3e-53.5e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.55e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.55e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 19.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.59e-5 · 19.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.05e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.05e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.06e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.06e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.05e-5 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.05e-5 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.44e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.44e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.63e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.63e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.72e-5 · 7.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 30.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.307e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.36× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.37× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.36×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.37×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.18×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.59×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.4×2.8×4.1×5.5×6.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.59× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 7.42400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.59× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.42
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 92% · APY 107% · Sharpe 1.48σ ann 62% · Sortino 0.83 · n 4999
0%35%71%106%142%177%92.2%APR (simple)107.0%APY (compound)62.4%Ann. vol σ147.7%Sharpe (ann)82.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0120.0120.0130.0130.013t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:20:24 UTC
Snapshot age
420ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:20:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
bd7fb8ec6a2e8f9d9eb993e3c693a89da2df3957e75b7c615c3c729a30b93c1b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,070.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.38

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.76K
bid $1.30K · ask $455
Depth within 50bp
$12.59K
bid $6.23K · ask $6.36K
Mid price
0.012552
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
15.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.010
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.655
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FOGO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01256711.97bp0.0125725FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01260441.41bp0.01264211FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.012768172.31bp0.01290520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0125428.07bp0.0125412FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01250438.32bp0.0124618FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012343166.81bp0.01220920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-FOGO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.64M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FOGO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.470 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$911.08K
real volume
Sell weight
$2.53M
real volume
Net delta
$1.62M
sellers net
Imbalance
-47.03%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-FOGO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.19% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.012820→0.0125392.192%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.012909→0.0127041.588%3
#32026-06-14 14:00:00Z1.0h0.012575→0.0124600.915%2

/api/asset/hl-FOGO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
62.43%
σ per bar = 0.000272
Mean return (annualised)
92.23%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.16%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2438 bars

/api/asset/hl-FOGO/risk · same metrics, JSON