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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DYDX

DYDX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dydx · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.49%
realized vol (ann.)
74.77%
max drawdown
2.91%
sharpe
-79.06
ulcer index
1.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3554.76
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.77%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2134.80
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.49%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.49%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-DYDX/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH775ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.117
24h Δ · live
-3.49%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
DYDX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1203 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.1170, 0.1232] · R²=0.715▼ FALLING -3.68%σ NORMAL 1.29%LAST 0.11740.12320.12170.12010.11850.1170μ = 0.1203max 0.1232min 0.1170dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.12
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,102,715 · μ=84108.6 · σ=126099.0 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 84109640,029.750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 640030 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
775ms
$mark $
$0.1174
$mid $
$0.1174
◉prev-day close
$0.1216
Δ24h Δ %
-3.494%
$24h vol $
$250.03k
◐open interest $
$3.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1203 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.1170, 0.1232] · R²=0.715▼ FALLING -3.68%σ NORMAL 1.29%LAST 0.11740.12320.12170.12010.11850.1170μ = 0.1203max 0.1232min 0.1170dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1174 · 24h -3.49% · range $[0.1170, 0.1232]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1166, 0.1243] · σ=0.0016 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -4.02%CLOSE 0.1174 vs OPEN 0.1224 (-4.02%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.11740.12430.12240.12050.11860.1166μ close = 0.1203O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.122 (-0.35%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.122 (-0.35%)O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)-1.9%O0.119 H0.119 L0.117 C0.117 (-1.90%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.117 C0.117 (-1.90%)O0.117 H0.118 L0.117 C0.117 (+0.48%)O0.117 H0.118 L0.117 C0.117 (+0.48%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,102,715 · μ=84108.6 · σ=126099.0 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 8410938,289.4 · 6.0% peak38,289.4 · 6.0% peak24,494.2 · 3.8% peak24,494.2 · 3.8% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak640,029.7640,029.7 · 100.0% peak640,029.7 · 100.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak67,690.8 · 10.6% peak67,690.8 · 10.6% peak23,509 · 3.7% peak23,509 · 3.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2102715 · peak 640030 · CV 1.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0082 · skew=-0.02 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.58 (mesokurtic)43210 1-171.33bpbin -171.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -171.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-141.32bpbin -141.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -141.32bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-111.31bpbin -111.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -111.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-81.30bpbin -81.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -81.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-51.29bpbin -51.29bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -51.29bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-21.28bpbin -21.28bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -21.28bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 48.73bpbin 8.73bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.73bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 338.74bpbin 38.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 38.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 268.75bpbin 68.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 68.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 298.76bpbin 98.76bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 98.76bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak128.77bp 1158.78bpbin 158.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 158.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.02 · kurt=-0.27 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1174
Mid price
$0.1174
24h change
-3.49%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1216

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1203$95% CI: [0.1197$, 0.1209$]
σ STD DEV0.0016$σ² = 0.024×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.29%
med MEDIAN0.1203$Q₁ 0.1194$ · Q₃ 0.1212$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0062$ · IQR 0.0018$ (1.349σ→0.0021$)
min 0.1170$Q₁ 0.1194$med 0.1203$Q₃ 0.1212$max 0.1232$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.088approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.416mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.18
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.02
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-17.09
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.156331%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.183
σᵣ STD / h0.856081%σ²ᵣ = 0.733×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.48×
σ ANNUALISED80.12%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.856%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-17.09negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-14.96downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.03approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.88
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1369.46%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.51%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.508%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.791%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.706%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.06%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.508%VaR₉₉−1.791%ES₉₅−1.706%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 20h duration
PEAK12.32$
−5.06% drawdown over 20h
11.70$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.33% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.054 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1225
Bollinger MA
$0.1198
Bollinger lower
$0.1172

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.280within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.040lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.745strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.598significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.745
H = 0.745STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.280k=2-0.040k=3-0.176k=4-0.129k=5+0.0990+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.77very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$250.03k
Open interest (USD)
$3.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.08x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.74% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.68%MILD BEARISH -3.75%BEST+1.74%21hWORST-1.86%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.68%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.54%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.75%+1.04%-4.15%-0.41% · 14h-0.41% · 14h-0.41%14h0.91% · 15h0.91% · 15h0.91%15h0.55% · 16h0.55% · 16h0.55%16h-1.23% · 17h-1.23% · 17h-1.23%17h-0.87% · 18h-0.87% · 18h-0.87%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h1.74% · 21h1.74% · 21h1.74%21h★ BEST-1.55% · 22h-1.55% · 22h-1.55%22h-0.41% · 23h-0.41% · 23h-0.41%23h-0.30% · 00h-0.30% · 00h-0.30%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h-0.58% · 02h-0.58% · 02h-0.58%02h0.33% · 03h0.33% · 03h0.33%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.77% · 05h0.77% · 05h0.77%05h-0.34% · 06h-0.34% · 06h-0.34%06h0.30% · 07h0.30% · 07h0.30%07h0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-0.81% · 10h-0.81% · 10h-0.81%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-1.86% · 12h-1.86% · 12h-1.86%12h▼ WORST0.40% · 13h0.40% · 13h0.40%13hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.74% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.681%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.77%)FINAL-3.77%MAX DD-5.14%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9623 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9585, 1.0104]1.01040.9585break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.14% · significant0%-5.14%▼ TROUGH -5.14%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.14%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.41%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.14%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9623 (-3.77%) · max DD -5.14% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-15.88 · σ=19.95UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -26.00 (-0.51σ vs μ)62.6031.300.00-31.30-62.60μ = -15.88-18.52-18.52-7.81-7.816.136.13-21.74-21.74-11.87-11.87-4.13-4.13-4.98-4.98-15.63-15.63-60.21-60.21-62.60-62.60-22.51-22.51-23.25-23.25-16.54-16.5413.1613.16-1.10-1.109.309.30-5.39-5.39-27.94-27.94-26.00-26.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.004 · range [-62.60, 13.16] · μ -15.875 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.3591 · σ=18.0765 · range [51.7746, 112.6934] · R²=0.156▲ RISING +19.00%σ EXTREME 22.22%LAST 91.9890112.693497.463782.234067.004351.7746μ = 81.3591max 112.6934min 51.7746dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 91.99% · range [51.77%, 112.69%] · μ 81.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.280 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.426 (-0.49σ vs μ)0.7850.3930.000-0.393-0.785μ = -0.2800.0940.0940.2160.2160.1330.133-0.162-0.162-0.289-0.289-0.292-0.292-0.301-0.301-0.411-0.411-0.077-0.077-0.556-0.556-0.738-0.738-0.785-0.785-0.737-0.737-0.446-0.446-0.420-0.420-0.067-0.0670.0060.006-0.064-0.064-0.426-0.426v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.426 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0046
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9977
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5615
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3091
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0069
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2945
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1955
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.606 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.45e-5 · top T=2.00h (33.7%) · top-3 cover 74.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-42.6e-41.7e-48.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.90e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.90e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.18e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.18e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.48e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.48e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.03e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.03e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.51e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.51e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-4 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.62e-4 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.78e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.78e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.36e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.36e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.42e-4 · 33.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.42e-4 · 33.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 33.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.014e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.70×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.69400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.69
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -688% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.34σ ann 74% · Sortino -6.86 · n 4999
-1121%-879%-637%-396%-154%88%-687.7%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)73.6%Ann. vol σ-934.5%Sharpe (ann)-686.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1120.1150.1180.1200.1230.126t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:59:50 UTC
Snapshot age
775ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:59:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fd4ac6b67a5a62cabdf291cc4473bdbd40387bd86752f601614ed1ea7e4806de · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,279.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.05

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$454
bid $259 · ask $195
Depth within 10bp
$11.67K
bid $1.09K · ask $10.58K
Depth within 50bp
$79.01K
bid $21.20K · ask $57.81K
Mid price
0.117385
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.405
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.732
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-DYDX/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1174697.16bp0.1174905FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1174888.77bp0.1174905FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.11764422.09bp0.11809020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1173086.58bp0.1173002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.11710723.66bp0.11694012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.11696635.73bp0.11658020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.10M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-DYDX/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.215 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$809.88K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.25M
real volume
Net delta
$444.66K
sellers net
Imbalance
-21.54%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
21.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-DYDX/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.89% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z3.0h0.120450→0.1169702.889%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.123050→0.1196302.779%5
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z3.0h0.123210→0.1206502.078%4

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
73.59%
σ per bar = 0.000321
Mean return (annualised)
-687.70%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.56%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.12 over 2882 bars

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/risk · same metrics, JSON