Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

CHIP

CHIP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-chip · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 5.38%
realized vol (ann.)
235.56%
max drawdown
6.33%
sharpe
52.87
ulcer index
2.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.95%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4759.34
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2119.05
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
5.38%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-10.30%
signalLONGconfidence 42%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +5.38%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-CHIP/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.036
24h Δ · live
5.38%
24h vol · live
$2.2M
CHIP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0345 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.0328, 0.0368] · R²=0.495▲ RISING +6.82%σ NORMAL 3.52%LAST 0.03620.03680.03580.03480.03380.0328μ = 0.0345max 0.0368min 0.0328dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.0%Short fee 52.0%SHORT FEE52.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001176% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=64,697,766 · μ=2587910.6 · σ=1970314.1 · CV=0.76RISING +147% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1702,153,0074,306,0146,459,0208,612,027μ = 25879118,612,02750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8612027 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.0362
$mid $
$0.0362
◉prev-day close
$0.0344
Δ24h Δ %
+5.379%
$24h vol $
$2.22M
◐open interest $
$3.29M
%funding (1h)
-0.001176%
%funding (yr)
-10.30%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0345 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.0328, 0.0368] · R²=0.495▲ RISING +6.82%σ NORMAL 3.52%LAST 0.03620.03680.03580.03480.03380.0328μ = 0.0345max 0.0368min 0.0328dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0362 · 24h 5.38% · range $[0.0328, 0.0368]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0327, 0.0369] · σ=0.0012 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +6.06%CLOSE 0.0362 vs OPEN 0.0342 (+6.06%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03620.03690.03590.03480.03380.0327μ close = 0.0345O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.71%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+0.43%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.50%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+1.56%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.26%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-1.99%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-0.52%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+1.53%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (-1.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (-2.20%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.25%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.033 (+1.13%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.033 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)O0.033 H0.034 L0.033 C0.034 (+2.33%)6.4%O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+6.43%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (-2.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.91%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.71%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.71%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-1.39%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-1.39%)O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+3.92%)O0.034 H0.036 L0.034 C0.036 (+3.92%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.02%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.037 (+2.21%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.035 C0.037 (+2.21%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.50%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.50%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=64,697,766 · μ=2587910.6 · σ=1970314.1 · CV=0.76RISING +147% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1702,153,0074,306,0146,459,0208,612,027μ = 25879113,164,972 · 36.8% peak3,164,972 · 36.8% peak969,786 · 11.3% peak969,786 · 11.3% peak1,043,012 · 12.1% peak1,043,012 · 12.1% peak657,957 · 7.6% peak657,957 · 7.6% peak1,131,189 · 13.1% peak1,131,189 · 13.1% peak1,508,252 · 17.5% peak1,508,252 · 17.5% peak1,021,385 · 11.9% peak1,021,385 · 11.9% peak1,784,544 · 20.7% peak1,784,544 · 20.7% peak2,696,091 · 31.3% peak2,696,091 · 31.3% peak1,834,886 · 21.3% peak1,834,886 · 21.3% peak1,830,667 · 21.3% peak1,830,667 · 21.3% peak1,011,087 · 11.7% peak1,011,087 · 11.7% peak1,457,936 · 16.9% peak1,457,936 · 16.9% peak1,692,817 · 19.7% peak1,692,817 · 19.7% peak3,027,628 · 35.2% peak3,027,628 · 35.2% peak5,985,579 · 69.5% peak5,985,579 · 69.5% peak3,870,068 · 44.9% peak3,870,068 · 44.9% peak5,827,045 · 67.7% peak5,827,045 · 67.7% peak5,017,059 · 58.3% peak5,017,059 · 58.3% peak1,508,751 · 17.5% peak1,508,751 · 17.5% peak2,711,052 · 31.5% peak2,711,052 · 31.5% peak3,266,740 · 37.9% peak3,266,740 · 37.9% peak8,612,0278,612,027 · 100.0% peak8,612,027 · 100.0% peak2,552,706 · 29.6% peak2,552,706 · 29.6% peak514,530 · 6.0% peak514,530 · 6.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 64697766 · peak 8612027 · CV 0.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0031 · σ=0.0189 · skew=1.05 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.33 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 2-224.41bpbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -224.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-149.58bpbin -149.58bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -149.58bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-74.75bpbin -74.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -74.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 40.09bpbin 0.09bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 0.09bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 474.92bpbin 74.92bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 74.92bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4149.75bpbin 149.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 149.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1224.58bpbin 224.58bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 224.58bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak299.41bp 1374.24bpbin 374.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 374.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak449.08bp523.91bp 1598.74bpbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 598.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.12 · kurt=1.55 · near 22 / mid 1 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0362
Mid price
$0.0362
24h change
+5.38%
Mark–mid spread
0.55 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0344

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.23)
μ MEAN0.0345$95% CI: [0.0340$, 0.0350$]
σ STD DEV0.0012$σ² = 0.015×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.52%
med MEDIAN0.0342$Q₁ 0.0336$ · Q₃ 0.0355$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0040$ · IQR 0.0019$ (1.349σ→0.0016$)
min 0.0328$Q₁ 0.0336$med 0.0342$Q₃ 0.0355$max 0.0368$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.442approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.226platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.28
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=12.64
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.274702%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.135
σᵣ STD / h2.033661%σ²ᵣ = 4.136×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.40×
σ ANNUALISED190.34%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.034%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)12.64excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)17.69strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.19right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.23leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.40
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2406.39%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.12%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.124%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.518%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.400%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.39%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.124%VaR₉₉−2.518%ES₉₅−2.400%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK3.65$
−5.39% drawdown over 4h
3.45$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.70% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.799 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0373
Bollinger MA
$0.0347
Bollinger lower
$0.0321

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.189within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.234lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.854strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.748significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.854
H = 0.854STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.189k=2-0.234k=3-0.185k=4-0.170k=5-0.3310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.90very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$2.22M
Open interest (USD)
$3.29M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.68x
1h funding
-0.001176%
Funding (annualised)
-10.30%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
6.642× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.321× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.661×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.53%MILD BULLISH +6.59%BEST+6.36%07hWORST-2.62%09hTYPICAL |Δ|1.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.59%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.79%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.27%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.59%+8.19%-3.25%-1.40% · 17h-1.40% · 17h-1.40%17h0.43% · 18h0.43% · 18h0.43%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h1.49% · 20h1.49% · 20h1.49%20h0.27% · 21h0.27% · 21h0.27%21h-1.79% · 22h-1.79% · 22h-1.79%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h1.45% · 00h1.45% · 00h1.45%00h-1.66% · 01h-1.66% · 01h-1.66%01h-2.18% · 02h-2.18% · 02h-2.18%02h-0.18% · 03h-0.18% · 03h-0.18%03h1.19% · 04h1.19% · 04h1.19%04h-0.32% · 05h-0.32% · 05h-0.32%05h2.42% · 06h2.42% · 06h2.42%06h6.36% · 07h6.36% · 07h6.36%07h★ BEST0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-2.62% · 09h-2.62% · 09h-2.62%09h▼ WORST-0.89% · 10h-0.89% · 10h-0.89%10h-0.73% · 11h-0.73% · 11h-0.73%11h-1.31% · 12h-1.31% · 12h-1.31%12h3.73% · 13h3.73% · 13h3.73%13h0.88% · 14h0.88% · 14h0.88%14h1.83% · 15h1.83% · 15h1.83%15h-1.59% · 16h-1.59% · 16h-1.59%16hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+7.07%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 6.36% · worst -2.62% · typical |Δ| 1.525%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +6.31%FINAL+6.31%MAX DD-5.44%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.03%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0631 · peak 1.0803 · range [0.9671, 1.0803]1.08030.9671break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0803UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.44% · significant0%-5.44%▼ TROUGH -5.44%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -5.44%bar 18-23 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -4.66%bar 7-15 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -1.59%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.44%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0631 (6.31%) · max DD -5.44% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=6.45 · σ=29.84MIXED EDGELAST 21.18 (+0.49σ vs μ)65.1232.560.00-32.56-65.12μ = 6.45-4.13-4.1310.0810.0821.8621.86-6.21-6.21-46.88-46.88-53.89-53.89-18.44-18.44-18.22-18.22-6.71-6.7138.3738.3765.1265.1241.1841.1829.0629.0626.7126.718.398.39-6.46-6.46-6.54-6.5428.1228.1221.1821.18v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 21.180 · range [-53.89, 65.12] · μ 6.452 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=191.4524 · σ=69.4106 · range [103.9486, 297.9446] · R²=0.449▲ RISING +63.27%σ EXTREME 36.25%LAST 194.0778297.9446249.4456200.9466152.4476103.9486μ = 191.4524max 297.9446min 103.9486dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 194.08% · range [103.95%, 297.94%] · μ 191.45% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=0.051 · σ=0.168MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST -0.212 (-1.56σ vs μ)0.3470.1740.000-0.174-0.347μ = 0.0510.0900.0900.2750.2750.1350.135-0.232-0.232-0.132-0.132-0.111-0.1110.0070.0070.0120.0120.1650.1650.2090.2090.0020.0020.0770.0770.2540.2540.3470.3470.1610.161-0.170-0.1700.1000.100-0.012-0.012-0.212-0.212v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.212 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.6713
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.0565
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1519
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1036
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7135
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5870
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0238
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.5330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.162 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.00e-4 · top T=8.00h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 63.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-38.6e-45.7e-42.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.68e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.68e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.51e-4 · 17.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.51e-4 · 17.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.85e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.85e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.80e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.80e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.05e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.05e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.89e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.89e-5 · 1.9% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.801e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.63× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.63× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.10%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.10%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.63×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.63×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.32×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.16×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.5×1.0×1.5×2.1×2.6×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.16× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -3.05400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.16× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -3.05
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 305% · APY 87% · Sharpe 1.38σ ann 220% · Sortino 1.32 · n 4999
0%73%147%220%293%366%305.3%APR (simple)86.7%APY (compound)220.5%Ann. vol σ138.5%Sharpe (ann)132.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.003% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0340.0350.0360.0370.038t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:18:04 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:18:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8d511d58d4b6c00e8b4563fcccbed1779dc71169dcc5c84a060fcb88ba0cdd9f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,073HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$822
bid $606 · ask $216
Depth within 10bp
$16.50K
bid $3.74K · ask $12.76K
Depth within 50bp
$69.94K
bid $36.22K · ask $33.72K
Mid price
0.036211
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.037
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.513
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-CHIP/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0362305.17bp0.0362312FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0362377.26bp0.0362468FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03626214.05bp0.03630020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0361925.18bp0.0361844FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03617210.89bp0.03615210FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03613720.51bp0.03609920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.176e-5
-0.00118% / hr
Annualised APR
-10.308%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
35.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
35.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE10.308%35.4d354.3d
SHORTPAY-10.308%35.4d354.3d

/api/asset/hl-CHIP/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$64.70M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-CHIP/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.164 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$35.81M
real volume
Sell weight
$25.72M
real volume
Net delta
$10.09M
buyers net
Imbalance
16.39%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-CHIP/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 09:00:00Z3.0h0.036490→0.0345225.393%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z6.0h0.034423→0.0328404.599%7
#32026-06-14 16:00:00Z0ms0.036819→0.0362371.581%1

/api/asset/hl-CHIP/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
220.47%
σ per bar = 0.000962
Mean return (annualised)
305.34%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.88%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2776 bars

/api/asset/hl-CHIP/risk · same metrics, JSON