Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ALGO

ALGO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-algo · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.71%
realized vol (ann.)
65.39%
max drawdown
0.61%
sharpe
-33.56
ulcer index
0.27%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.21%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-8063.37
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-4040.71
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
613
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.71%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
0.40%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +1.71%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ALGO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH730ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.094
24h Δ · live
1.71%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
ALGO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0942 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0914, 0.0974] · R²=0.170▲ RISING +1.69%σ NORMAL 1.51%LAST 0.09410.09740.09590.09440.09290.0914μ = 0.0942max 0.0974min 0.0914dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.09
Funding direction · live
Long fee 23.8%Short fee 76.2%SHORT FEE76.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.791 / 1.00 bits (79%) · moderate uncertainty
Long fee
23.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
76.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000045% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,297,497 · μ=291899.9 · σ=391730.1 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110434,150868,2991,302,4491,736,598μ = 2919001,736,59850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1736598 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
730ms
$mark $
$0.0941
$mid $
$0.0941
◉prev-day close
$0.0926
Δ24h Δ %
+1.712%
$24h vol $
$669.26k
◐open interest $
$1.83M
%funding (1h)
0.000045%
%funding (yr)
+0.40%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0942 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0914, 0.0974] · R²=0.170▲ RISING +1.69%σ NORMAL 1.51%LAST 0.09410.09740.09590.09440.09290.0914μ = 0.0942max 0.0974min 0.0914dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0941 · 24h 1.71% · range $[0.0914, 0.0974]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0901, 0.0975] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +0.92%CLOSE 0.0941 vs OPEN 0.0933 (+0.92%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.09410.09750.09570.09380.09200.0901μ close = 0.0942O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (-0.76%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (-0.76%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.17%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.17%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.92%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.92%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.24%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.24%)O0.091 H0.093 L0.090 C0.092 (+0.51%)O0.091 H0.093 L0.090 C0.092 (+0.51%)O0.092 H0.094 L0.092 C0.093 (+1.58%)O0.092 H0.094 L0.092 C0.093 (+1.58%)O0.093 H0.095 L0.093 C0.095 (+1.60%)O0.093 H0.095 L0.093 C0.095 (+1.60%)O0.095 H0.096 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)O0.095 H0.096 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)3.7%O0.094 H0.097 L0.094 C0.097 (+3.65%)O0.094 H0.097 L0.094 C0.097 (+3.65%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.096 C0.096 (-1.22%)O0.097 H0.098 L0.096 C0.096 (-1.22%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.096 (-0.10%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.096 (-0.10%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (-0.78%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (-0.78%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (-0.33%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (-0.33%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.01%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.01%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)O0.094 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.52%)O0.094 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.52%)O0.095 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (+0.72%)O0.095 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (+0.72%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (-0.69%)O0.096 H0.096 L0.095 C0.095 (-0.69%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.03%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.03%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.093 C0.094 (-1.41%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.093 C0.094 (-1.41%)O0.094 H0.094 L0.093 C0.094 (+0.32%)O0.094 H0.094 L0.093 C0.094 (+0.32%)O0.094 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.39%)O0.094 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.39%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.13%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.095 (+0.13%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)O0.095 H0.095 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.64%)O0.094 H0.094 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.01%)O0.094 H0.094 L0.094 C0.094 (-0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,297,497 · μ=291899.9 · σ=391730.1 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110434,150868,2991,302,4491,736,598μ = 291900156,544 · 9.0% peak156,544 · 9.0% peak162,707 · 9.4% peak162,707 · 9.4% peak84,247 · 4.9% peak84,247 · 4.9% peak519,424 · 29.9% peak519,424 · 29.9% peak360,785 · 20.8% peak360,785 · 20.8% peak1,233,162 · 71.0% peak1,233,162 · 71.0% peak236,829 · 13.6% peak236,829 · 13.6% peak142,909 · 8.2% peak142,909 · 8.2% peak568,922 · 32.8% peak568,922 · 32.8% peak102,336 · 5.9% peak102,336 · 5.9% peak165,356 · 9.5% peak165,356 · 9.5% peak99,685 · 5.7% peak99,685 · 5.7% peak152,845 · 8.8% peak152,845 · 8.8% peak109,155 · 6.3% peak109,155 · 6.3% peak45,399 · 2.6% peak45,399 · 2.6% peak326,451 · 18.8% peak326,451 · 18.8% peak110,101 · 6.3% peak110,101 · 6.3% peak159,098 · 9.2% peak159,098 · 9.2% peak60,464 · 3.5% peak60,464 · 3.5% peak1,736,5981,736,598 · 100.0% peak1,736,598 · 100.0% peak380,744 · 21.9% peak380,744 · 21.9% peak130,611 · 7.5% peak130,611 · 7.5% peak76,933 · 4.4% peak76,933 · 4.4% peak120,443 · 6.9% peak120,443 · 6.9% peak55,749 · 3.2% peak55,749 · 3.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7297497 · peak 1736598 · CV 1.34

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0104 · skew=1.31 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.89 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 2-122.79bpbin -122.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -122.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-80.98bpbin -80.98bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -80.98bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-39.18bpbin -39.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -39.18bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 42.62bpbin 2.62bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 2.62bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 444.43bpbin 44.43bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 44.43bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 286.23bpbin 86.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 86.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak128.03bp 2169.84bpbin 169.84bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 169.84bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak211.64bp253.44bp295.25bp 1337.05bpbin 337.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 337.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.39 · kurt=2.55 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0941
Mid price
$0.0941
24h change
+1.71%
Mark–mid spread
2.66 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0926

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0942$95% CI: [0.0937$, 0.0948$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.020×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.51%
med MEDIAN0.0945$Q₁ 0.0936$ · Q₃ 0.0949$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0060$ · IQR 0.0013$ (1.349σ→0.0019$)
min 0.0914$Q₁ 0.0936$med 0.0945$Q₃ 0.0949$max 0.0974$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.192approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.257mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.48
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.97
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.069850%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.064
σᵣ STD / h1.094289%σ²ᵣ = 1.197×10⁻⁴ · CV = 15.67×
σ ANNUALISED102.42%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.094%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.97excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.43strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.48right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.48leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.41
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+611.88%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.30%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.301%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.423%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.408%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.95%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.301%VaR₉₉−1.423%ES₉₅−1.408%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK9.74$
−3.95% drawdown over 11h
9.36$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.331 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0967
Bollinger MA
$0.0948
Bollinger lower
$0.0929

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.228within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.162lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.909strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.167significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.909
H = 0.909STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.228k=2+0.162k=3-0.085k=4-0.127k=5-0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.17)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.17)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$669.26k
Open interest (USD)
$1.83M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.37x
1h funding
0.000045%
Funding (annualised)
+0.40%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.833× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.917× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.458×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.58% · worst -1.44% · typical |Δ| 0.77%MILD BULLISH +1.68%BEST+3.58%15hWORST-1.44%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.42%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.64% · Σ +5.12%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.02%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.68%+5.12%-1.26%-0.19% · 08h-0.19% · 08h-0.19%08h-0.80% · 09h-0.80% · 09h-0.80%09h-0.26% · 10h-0.26% · 10h-0.26%10h0.51% · 11h0.51% · 11h0.51%11h1.63% · 12h1.63% · 12h1.63%12h1.53% · 13h1.53% · 13h1.53%13h-0.86% · 14h-0.86% · 14h-0.86%14h3.58% · 15h3.58% · 15h3.58%15h★ BEST-1.44% · 16h-1.44% · 16h-1.44%16h▼ WORST-0.13% · 17h-0.13% · 17h-0.13%17h-0.81% · 18h-0.81% · 18h-0.81%18h-0.41% · 19h-0.41% · 19h-0.41%19h0.07% · 20h0.07% · 20h0.07%20h-0.75% · 21h-0.75% · 21h-0.75%21h0.52% · 22h0.52% · 22h0.52%22h0.92% · 23h0.92% · 23h0.92%23h-0.59% · 00h-0.59% · 00h-0.59%00h-0.04% · 01h-0.04% · 01h-0.04%01h-1.38% · 02h-1.38% · 02h-1.38%02h0.32% · 03h0.32% · 03h0.32%03h0.70% · 04h0.70% · 04h0.70%04h0.31% · 05h0.31% · 05h0.31%05h-0.78% · 06h-0.78% · 06h-0.78%06h0.05% · 07h0.05% · 07h0.05%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.12%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 3.58% · worst -1.44% · typical |Δ| 0.773%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.55%FINAL+1.55%MAX DD-3.98%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.15%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0155 · peak 1.0515 · range [0.9875, 1.0515]1.05150.9875break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0515UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.98% · moderate0%-3.98%▼ TROUGH -3.98%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.98%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.25%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.86%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.98%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0155 (1.55%) · max DD -3.98% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.72 · σ=35.26MIXED EDGELAST -15.64 (-0.42σ vs μ)99.2049.600.00-49.60-99.20μ = -0.7237.3737.3724.2024.2059.9459.9442.0242.0235.8735.8715.3615.36-0.53-0.537.717.71-99.20-99.20-46.10-46.10-10.12-10.12-5.64-5.643.083.08-24.22-24.22-4.79-4.79-1.38-1.38-14.18-14.18-17.43-17.43-15.64-15.64v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.638 · range [-99.20, 59.94] · μ -0.719 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=102.4809 · σ=47.8939 · range [47.4763, 177.7837] · R²=0.363▼ FALLING -21.52%σ EXTREME 46.73%LAST 73.5932177.7837145.2069112.630080.053247.4763μ = 102.4809max 177.7837min 47.4763dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 73.59% · range [47.48%, 177.78%] · μ 102.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.203 · σ=0.301MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.074 (+0.43σ vs μ)0.7000.3500.000-0.350-0.700μ = -0.2030.5880.5880.1620.162-0.405-0.405-0.700-0.700-0.538-0.538-0.539-0.539-0.463-0.463-0.268-0.268-0.362-0.362-0.443-0.4430.1180.118-0.233-0.233-0.240-0.240-0.068-0.068-0.140-0.140-0.192-0.1920.0060.006-0.071-0.071-0.074-0.074v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.074 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
20.8687
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.8763
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7216
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2991
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1837
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4944
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.850 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.27e-4 · top T=2.00h (19.7%) · top-3 cover 51.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.0e-42.3e-41.5e-47.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.24e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.24e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.77e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.77e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.04e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.99e-4 · 19.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.99e-4 · 19.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.55e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.55e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-4 · 19.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 19.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.528e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4729 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.16× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.16× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.17%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.17%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.16×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.16×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.08×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.54×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.3×2.6×3.8×5.1×6.4×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.54× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 13.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.54× · bootstrap from 4728 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 13.26
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.09%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 8.55σ ann 397% · Sortino 7.98 · n 4728 · ⚠ capped (n=4728 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)396.8%Ann. vol σ855.1%Sharpe (ann)798.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0830.0880.0930.0980.1030.108t-4728t-3940t-3152t-2364t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Snapshot age
730ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b8b0bee5fdc4ba7724595768043127343a8efcfd2b06a6d6031332ee273d2162 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$9.23K
bid $7.46K · ask $1.77K
Depth within 10bp
$16.23K
bid $10.67K · ask $5.57K
Depth within 50bp
$83.93K
bid $43.53K · ask $40.40K
Mid price
0.094120
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.039
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.512
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ALGO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0941412.23bp0.0941411FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.09421810.41bp0.09427811FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.09432221.44bp0.09444920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0940893.25bp0.0940872FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0940734.99bp0.0940305FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.09391122.18bp0.09377420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+4.525e-7
0.00005% / hr
Annualised APR
0.397%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
2.52y
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
2.52y
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-0.397%2.52y25.23y
SHORTRECEIVE0.397%2.52y25.23y

/api/asset/hl-ALGO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.30M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ALGO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.005 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.55M
real volume
Net delta
$37.93K
buyers net
Imbalance
0.53%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ALGO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 16:00:00Z5.0h0.097434→0.0941283.393%6
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.095489→0.0935861.993%4
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z2.0h0.092575→0.0914181.250%3

/api/asset/hl-ALGO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,729 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
396.75%
σ per bar = 0.001732
Mean return (annualised)
3392.71%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
8.55
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.52%
peak 0.10 → trough 0.09 over 1648 bars

/api/asset/hl-ALGO/risk · same metrics, JSON