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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZETA

ZETA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zeta · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.61%
realized vol (ann.)
53.70%
max drawdown
0.44%
sharpe
46.63
ulcer index
0.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
11916.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.40%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.11
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
6319.50
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.11
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
632
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.61%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +1.61%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zeta/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.037
24h Δ · live
1.61%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
ZETA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0365 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0361, 0.0368] · R²=0.062▲ RISING +1.44%σ LOW 0.56%LAST 0.03660.03680.03660.03650.03630.0361μ = 0.0365max 0.0368min 0.0361dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=812,999 · μ=32520.0 · σ=17054.9 · CV=0.52STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10020,08340,16760,25080,334μ = 3252080,333.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 80334 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.7s
$mark $
$0.0366
$mid $
$0.0366
◉prev-day close
$0.036
Δ24h Δ %
+1.609%
$24h vol $
$28.59k
◐open interest $
$322.56k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0365 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0361, 0.0368] · R²=0.062▲ RISING +1.44%σ LOW 0.56%LAST 0.03660.03680.03660.03650.03630.0361μ = 0.0365max 0.0368min 0.0361dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0366 · 24h 1.61% · range $[0.0361, 0.0368]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0360, 0.0370] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=57%BULLISH +0.60%CLOSE 0.0366 vs OPEN 0.0364 (+0.60%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03660.03700.03670.03650.03620.0360μ close = 0.0365O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.82%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.82%)1.4%O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+1.41%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+1.41%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.73%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.73%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.52%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.52%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.00%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.00%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.11%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.11%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.11%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.11%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.79%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.79%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.19%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.19%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.14%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.14%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.36%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.36%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.84%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.84%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.22%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.22%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.22%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.22%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.41%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.41%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.83%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.83%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.57%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.57%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.05%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.05%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.39%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.39%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.19%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.19%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.61%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.61%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.57%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.57%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.30%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.30%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=812,999 · μ=32520.0 · σ=17054.9 · CV=0.52STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10020,08340,16760,25080,334μ = 3252035,364.5 · 44.0% peak35,364.5 · 44.0% peak80,333.680,333.6 · 100.0% peak80,333.6 · 100.0% peak26,582.1 · 33.1% peak26,582.1 · 33.1% peak48,024.1 · 59.8% peak48,024.1 · 59.8% peak32,291.4 · 40.2% peak32,291.4 · 40.2% peak64,856.9 · 80.7% peak64,856.9 · 80.7% peak52,584.1 · 65.5% peak52,584.1 · 65.5% peak20,288.6 · 25.3% peak20,288.6 · 25.3% peak21,572.6 · 26.9% peak21,572.6 · 26.9% peak27,869 · 34.7% peak27,869 · 34.7% peak15,227.6 · 19.0% peak15,227.6 · 19.0% peak20,286.5 · 25.3% peak20,286.5 · 25.3% peak19,447 · 24.2% peak19,447 · 24.2% peak29,010 · 36.1% peak29,010 · 36.1% peak10,707.9 · 13.3% peak10,707.9 · 13.3% peak18,954 · 23.6% peak18,954 · 23.6% peak49,095.1 · 61.1% peak49,095.1 · 61.1% peak48,868.7 · 60.8% peak48,868.7 · 60.8% peak38,513.1 · 47.9% peak38,513.1 · 47.9% peak17,168.4 · 21.4% peak17,168.4 · 21.4% peak18,098.6 · 22.5% peak18,098.6 · 22.5% peak28,424.4 · 35.4% peak28,424.4 · 35.4% peak44,335 · 55.2% peak44,335 · 55.2% peak21,301.6 · 26.5% peak21,301.6 · 26.5% peak23,794.6 · 29.6% peak23,794.6 · 29.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 812999 · peak 80334 · CV 0.52

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.35 (mesokurtic)54310 2-79.74bpbin -79.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -79.74bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-58.72bpbin -58.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -58.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-37.69bpbin -37.69bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -37.69bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-16.67bpbin -16.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -16.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 34.35bpbin 4.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 4.35bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 225.38bpbin 25.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 25.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 246.40bpbin 46.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 46.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 567.42bpbin 67.42bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 67.42bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak88.44bp109.47bp130.49bp 1151.51bpbin 151.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 151.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.56 · kurt=0.07 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0366
Mid price
$0.0366
24h change
+1.61%
Mark–mid spread
2.73 bps
Prev-day close
$0.036

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.22)
μ MEAN0.0365$95% CI: [0.0364$, 0.0366$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.56%
med MEDIAN0.0365$Q₁ 0.0363$ · Q₃ 0.0366$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0361$Q₁ 0.0363$med 0.0365$Q₃ 0.0366$max 0.0368$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.161approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.217platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.31
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.33
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.059558%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.100
σᵣ STD / h0.597336%σ²ᵣ = 0.357×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.03×
σ ANNUALISED55.91%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.597%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.33excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)11.44strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.60right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.38mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+521.72%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.743%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.871%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.833%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.85%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.743%VaR₉₉−0.871%ES₉₅−0.833%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK3.68$
−1.85% drawdown over 14h
3.61$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.88% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.731 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0368
Bollinger MA
$0.0365
Bollinger lower
$0.0361

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.238within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.012lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.899strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.233fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.899
H = 0.899STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.238k=2-0.012k=3+0.067k=4-0.258k=5+0.0430+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.23)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.23)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$28.59k
Open interest (USD)
$322.56k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.62% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +1.43%BEST+1.62%08hWORST-0.90%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.43%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.14%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.43%+1.87%-0.00%1.62% · 08h1.62% · 08h1.62%08h★ BEST-0.63% · 09h-0.63% · 09h-0.63%09h0.74% · 10h0.74% · 10h0.74%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11h-0.38% · 12h-0.38% · 12h-0.38%12h0.60% · 13h0.60% · 13h0.60%13h-0.76% · 14h-0.76% · 14h-0.76%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.36% · 16h0.36% · 16h0.36%16h0.27% · 17h0.27% · 17h0.27%17h-0.90% · 18h-0.90% · 18h-0.90%18h▼ WORST-0.22% · 19h-0.22% · 19h-0.22%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.39% · 21h-0.39% · 21h-0.39%21h0.39% · 22h0.39% · 22h0.39%22h0.74% · 23h0.74% · 23h0.74%23h-0.52% · 00h-0.52% · 00h-0.52%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h-0.50% · 03h-0.50% · 03h-0.50%03h0.39% · 04h0.39% · 04h0.39%04h0.66% · 05h0.66% · 05h0.66%05h0.66% · 06h0.66% · 06h0.66%06h-0.27% · 07h-0.27% · 07h-0.27%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.05%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 1.62% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.480%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.40%FINAL+1.40%MAX DD-1.86%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.86%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0140 · peak 1.0186 · range [0.9996, 1.0186]1.01860.9996break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0186UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.86% · moderate0%-1.86%▼ TROUGH -1.86%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.86%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.63%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.46%bar 5-6 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.86%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0140 (1.40%) · max DD -1.86% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-4.63 · σ=18.66UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 17.85 (+1.20σ vs μ)39.2319.620.00-19.62-39.23μ = -4.6334.7934.79-12.83-12.831.491.49-10.38-10.380.840.84-12.42-12.42-39.23-39.23-19.00-19.00-29.51-29.51-28.07-28.07-10.26-10.26-0.00-0.009.119.11-1.73-1.73-5.03-5.03-5.01-5.01-7.83-7.8329.2529.2517.8517.85v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 17.855 · range [-39.23, 34.79] · μ -4.630 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.9619 · σ=8.3122 · range [42.1987, 78.2662] · R²=0.278▼ FALLING -37.08%σ EXTREME 16.64%LAST 49.246578.266269.249360.232451.215642.1987μ = 49.9619max 78.2662min 42.1987dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 49.25% · range [42.20%, 78.27%] · μ 49.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.175 · σ=0.294MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.253 (+1.46σ vs μ)0.5590.2790.000-0.279-0.559μ = -0.175-0.494-0.494-0.559-0.559-0.407-0.407-0.554-0.554-0.440-0.440-0.316-0.316-0.035-0.035-0.023-0.023-0.089-0.089-0.386-0.3860.1880.188-0.213-0.213-0.261-0.261-0.235-0.2350.0120.012-0.375-0.3750.1350.1350.4740.4740.2530.253v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.253 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4566
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5787
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.3371
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0145
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2274
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3089
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3876
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1653
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.578 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.44e-5 · top T=3.00h (23.2%) · top-3 cover 61.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.6e-57.2e-54.8e-52.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.58e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.58e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.40e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.80e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.80e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.55e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-5 · 23.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-5 · 23.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.19e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.19e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.96e-5 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.96e-5 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.83e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.83e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.65e-6 · 1.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.127e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4748 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.37× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.30× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.19%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.19%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.37×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.30×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.18×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.59×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.4×2.7×4.1×5.4×6.8×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.58× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.58× · bootstrap from 4747 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.26
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.11%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 9.89σ ann 429% · Sortino 6.86 · n 4747 · ⚠ capped (n=4747 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)429.4%Ann. vol σ989.4%Sharpe (ann)685.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0350.0370.0390.0410.043t-4747t-3956t-3165t-2374t-1582t-791t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:01 UTC
Snapshot age
4.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7b9f0754a6c4d9efcd585f726d2fb185f29a1ae916f7bd0a68416b62d5ca8711 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,644HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.01HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.18K
bid $1.40K · ask $779
Depth within 50bp
$11.59K
bid $6.25K · ask $5.34K
Mid price
0.036610
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
16.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.075
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.095
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zeta/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03664710.01bp0.0366702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03678648.11bp0.03697010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.037265178.98bp0.03808020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0365808.19bp0.0365801FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03647137.85bp0.03626010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.035831212.74bp0.03480020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-zeta/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$813.00K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zeta/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.092 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$424.66K
real volume
Sell weight
$352.97K
real volume
Net delta
$71.69K
buyers net
Imbalance
9.22%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zeta/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.50% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.036730→0.0361801.497%4
#22026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.036590→0.0361201.285%2
#32026-06-19 14:00:00Z1.0h0.036800→0.0365000.815%2

/api/asset/hl-zeta/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,748 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
429.38%
σ per bar = 0.001874
Mean return (annualised)
4248.28%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
12.23%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 3981 bars

/api/asset/hl-zeta/risk · same metrics, JSON