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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZEN

ZEN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zen · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 7.94%
realized vol (ann.)
66.91%
max drawdown
1.22%
sharpe
1.78
ulcer index
0.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.50%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
205.71
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.16%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
102.88
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1618
store
spread
—
24h Δ
7.94%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +7.94%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zen/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4.630
24h Δ · live
7.94%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
ZEN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=4.4574 · σ=0.1290 · range [4.2806, 4.6445] · R²=0.884▲ RISING +8.19%σ NORMAL 2.89%LAST 4.63294.64454.55354.46264.37164.2806μ = 4.4574max 4.6445min 4.2806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4.63
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=125,297 · μ=5011.9 · σ=10901.1 · CV=2.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16013,03526,06939,10452,138μ = 501252,138.3150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 52138 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.6s
$mark $
$4.6295
$mid $
$4.6289
◉prev-day close
$4.289
Δ24h Δ %
+7.939%
$24h vol $
$565.62k
◐open interest $
$323.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=4.4574 · σ=0.1290 · range [4.2806, 4.6445] · R²=0.884▲ RISING +8.19%σ NORMAL 2.89%LAST 4.63294.64454.55354.46264.37164.2806μ = 4.4574max 4.6445min 4.2806dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4.6295 · 24h 7.94% · range $[4.2806, 4.6445]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [4.2683, 4.7125] · σ=0.1290 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +7.81%CLOSE 4.6329 vs OPEN 4.2974 (+7.81%)&#9650; CLOSE 4.63294.71254.60144.49044.37944.2683μ close = 4.4574O4.297 H4.304 L4.278 C4.282 (-0.36%)O4.297 H4.304 L4.278 C4.282 (-0.36%)O4.287 H4.300 L4.277 C4.292 (+0.14%)O4.287 H4.300 L4.277 C4.292 (+0.14%)O4.289 H4.298 L4.278 C4.281 (-0.19%)O4.289 H4.298 L4.278 C4.281 (-0.19%)O4.290 H4.322 L4.268 C4.322 (+0.73%)O4.290 H4.322 L4.268 C4.322 (+0.73%)O4.325 H4.383 L4.307 C4.374 (+1.13%)O4.325 H4.383 L4.307 C4.374 (+1.13%)O4.367 H4.383 L4.360 C4.367 (-0.02%)O4.367 H4.383 L4.360 C4.367 (-0.02%)O4.367 H4.374 L4.352 C4.370 (+0.05%)O4.367 H4.374 L4.352 C4.370 (+0.05%)O4.372 H4.394 L4.351 C4.362 (-0.24%)O4.372 H4.394 L4.351 C4.362 (-0.24%)O4.358 H4.401 L4.343 C4.391 (+0.77%)O4.358 H4.401 L4.343 C4.391 (+0.77%)O4.389 H4.390 L4.365 C4.375 (-0.31%)O4.389 H4.390 L4.365 C4.375 (-0.31%)O4.371 H4.377 L4.350 C4.370 (-0.02%)O4.371 H4.377 L4.350 C4.370 (-0.02%)O4.363 H4.385 L4.351 C4.385 (+0.51%)O4.363 H4.385 L4.351 C4.385 (+0.51%)O4.380 H4.380 L4.353 C4.356 (-0.55%)O4.380 H4.380 L4.353 C4.356 (-0.55%)O4.352 H4.411 L4.350 C4.411 (+1.35%)O4.352 H4.411 L4.350 C4.411 (+1.35%)O4.415 H4.536 L4.396 C4.536 (+2.75%)O4.415 H4.536 L4.396 C4.536 (+2.75%)O4.545 H4.601 L4.485 C4.500 (-0.99%)O4.545 H4.601 L4.485 C4.500 (-0.99%)3.2%O4.497 H4.713 L4.494 C4.641 (+3.20%)O4.497 H4.713 L4.494 C4.641 (+3.20%)O4.643 H4.643 L4.534 C4.539 (-2.22%)O4.643 H4.643 L4.534 C4.539 (-2.22%)O4.537 H4.560 L4.532 C4.557 (+0.45%)O4.537 H4.560 L4.532 C4.557 (+0.45%)O4.560 H4.582 L4.536 C4.563 (+0.05%)O4.560 H4.582 L4.536 C4.563 (+0.05%)O4.563 H4.637 L4.563 C4.637 (+1.63%)O4.563 H4.637 L4.563 C4.637 (+1.63%)O4.631 H4.646 L4.617 C4.644 (+0.29%)O4.631 H4.646 L4.617 C4.644 (+0.29%)O4.627 H4.652 L4.612 C4.614 (-0.28%)O4.627 H4.652 L4.612 C4.614 (-0.28%)O4.615 H4.661 L4.598 C4.634 (+0.41%)O4.615 H4.661 L4.598 C4.634 (+0.41%)O4.642 H4.644 L4.628 C4.633 (-0.19%)O4.642 H4.644 L4.628 C4.633 (-0.19%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=125,297 · μ=5011.9 · σ=10901.1 · CV=2.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=16013,03526,06939,10452,138μ = 50121,381.7 · 2.7% peak1,381.7 · 2.7% peak897.41 · 1.7% peak897.41 · 1.7% peak489.46 · 0.9% peak489.46 · 0.9% peak2,132.15 · 4.1% peak2,132.15 · 4.1% peak2,093.6 · 4.0% peak2,093.6 · 4.0% peak476.53 · 0.9% peak476.53 · 0.9% peak299.94 · 0.6% peak299.94 · 0.6% peak462.87 · 0.9% peak462.87 · 0.9% peak1,856.09 · 3.6% peak1,856.09 · 3.6% peak449.64 · 0.9% peak449.64 · 0.9% peak621.89 · 1.2% peak621.89 · 1.2% peak458.55 · 0.9% peak458.55 · 0.9% peak159.69 · 0.3% peak159.69 · 0.3% peak1,045.66 · 2.0% peak1,045.66 · 2.0% peak20,836.48 · 40.0% peak20,836.48 · 40.0% peak52,138.3152,138.31 · 100.0% peak52,138.31 · 100.0% peak9,705.3 · 18.6% peak9,705.3 · 18.6% peak12,437.52 · 23.9% peak12,437.52 · 23.9% peak1,848.73 · 3.5% peak1,848.73 · 3.5% peak1,027.72 · 2.0% peak1,027.72 · 2.0% peak1,658.15 · 3.2% peak1,658.15 · 3.2% peak5,094.86 · 9.8% peak5,094.86 · 9.8% peak638.19 · 1.2% peak638.19 · 1.2% peak4,565.36 · 8.8% peak4,565.36 · 8.8% peak2,521.31 · 4.8% peak2,521.31 · 4.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 125297 · peak 52138 · CV 2.18

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0105 · skew=0.70 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.02 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-198.51bpbin -198.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -198.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-154.56bp-110.60bp 3-66.64bpbin -66.64bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -66.64bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-22.68bpbin -22.68bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -22.68bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 621.28bpbin 21.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 21.28bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 265.23bpbin 65.23bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 65.23bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3109.19bpbin 109.19bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 109.19bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1153.15bpbin 153.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 153.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak197.11bp241.07bp 2285.02bpbin 285.02bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 285.02bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.60 · kurt=1.09 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4.6295
Mid price
$4.6289
24h change
+7.94%
Mark–mid spread
1.30 bps
Prev-day close
$4.289

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN4.4574$95% CI: [4.4068$, 4.5080$]
σ STD DEV0.1290$σ² = 0.017 · CV = 2.89%
med MEDIAN4.3915$Q₁ 4.3665$ · Q₃ 4.5627$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.3639$ · IQR 0.1962$ (1.349σ→0.1741$)
min 4.2806$Q₁ 4.3665$med 4.3915$Q₃ 4.5627$max 4.6445$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.236approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.591platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.51
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.82
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=27.35
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.328178%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.292
σᵣ STD / h1.123025%σ²ᵣ = 1.261×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.42×
σ ANNUALISED105.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.123%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)27.35excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)37.55strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.64right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.66leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.37
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2874.84%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.78%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.779%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.881%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.501%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.18%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.779%VaR₉₉−1.881%ES₉₅−1.501%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK464.05$
−2.18% drawdown over 1h
453.93$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.93× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.42× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.23% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
69.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.798 · within band
Bollinger upper
$4.7272
Bollinger MA
$4.4942
Bollinger lower
$4.2612

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.420negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.194lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.104strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+13.258significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.104
H = 1.104STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.420k=2+0.194k=3-0.203k=4-0.095k=5+0.0860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$565.62k
Open interest (USD)
$323.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.75x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.07% · worst -2.20% · typical |Δ| 0.79%MILD BULLISH +7.88%BEST+3.07%01hWORST-2.20%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.79%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.88%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.69%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.30% · Σ +2.44%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.47% · Σ +3.74%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.88%+8.13%-0.03%0.24% · 10h0.24% · 10h0.24%10h-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h0.96% · 12h0.96% · 12h0.96%12h1.21% · 13h1.21% · 13h1.21%13h-0.18% · 14h-0.18% · 14h-0.18%14h0.07% · 15h0.07% · 15h0.07%15h-0.18% · 16h-0.18% · 16h-0.18%16h0.68% · 17h0.68% · 17h0.68%17h-0.38% · 18h-0.38% · 18h-0.38%18h-0.11% · 19h-0.11% · 19h-0.11%19h0.34% · 20h0.34% · 20h0.34%20h-0.68% · 21h-0.68% · 21h-0.68%21h1.27% · 22h1.27% · 22h1.27%22h2.80% · 23h2.80% · 23h2.80%23h-0.80% · 00h-0.80% · 00h-0.80%00h3.07% · 01h3.07% · 01h3.07%01h★ BEST-2.20% · 02h-2.20% · 02h-2.20%02h▼ WORST0.39% · 03h0.39% · 03h0.39%03h0.12% · 04h0.12% · 04h0.12%04h1.62% · 05h1.62% · 05h1.62%05h0.15% · 06h0.15% · 06h0.15%06h-0.67% · 07h-0.67% · 07h-0.67%07h0.45% · 08h0.45% · 08h0.45%08h-0.03% · 09h-0.03% · 09h-0.03%09hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.74%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 3.07% · worst -2.20% · typical |Δ| 0.786%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.03%FINAL+8.03%MAX DD-2.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.30%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0803 · peak 1.0830 · range [0.9997, 1.0830]1.08300.9997break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0830UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.20% · moderate0%-2.20%▼ TROUGH -2.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.20%bar 18-21 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -0.82%bar 10-13 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.80%bar 16-16 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0803 (8.03%) · max DD -2.20% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=28.67 · σ=20.17PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 34.00 (+0.26σ vs μ)66.2833.140.00-33.14-66.28μ = 28.6751.7851.7838.7538.7566.2866.2831.0231.02-3.95-3.9517.1117.11-10.19-10.1924.3924.3938.9938.9932.2832.2855.8555.8525.2525.2534.3634.3625.7325.7318.7118.7128.0028.00-7.11-7.1143.5343.5334.0034.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 34.000 · range [-10.19, 66.28] · μ 28.672 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=105.3470 · σ=58.6231 · range [34.6821, 199.9545] · R²=0.314▲ RISING +24.19%σ EXTREME 55.65%LAST 70.8380199.9545158.6364117.318376.000234.6821μ = 105.3470max 199.9545min 34.6821dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.84% · range [34.68%, 199.95%] · μ 105.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.310 · σ=0.265MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.163 (+0.55σ vs μ)0.6190.3100.000-0.310-0.619μ = -0.310-0.048-0.0480.0170.0170.1220.122-0.392-0.392-0.527-0.527-0.531-0.531-0.481-0.481-0.472-0.4720.2050.205-0.192-0.192-0.413-0.413-0.558-0.558-0.545-0.545-0.611-0.611-0.619-0.619-0.477-0.477-0.032-0.032-0.162-0.162-0.163-0.163v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.163 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.3700
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1125
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1787
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9612
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.2928
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8719
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2667
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2053
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.615 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.33e-4 · top T=2.40h (21.9%) · top-3 cover 54.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-42.6e-41.7e-48.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.41e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.29e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.29e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.98e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.98e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 8.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 8.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.96e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.96e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.25e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.25e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.90e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.90e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.30e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.30e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.49e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.49e-4 · 21.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.39e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.39e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.87e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.87e-4 · 18.0% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 21.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.594e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.60× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.45× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.14%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.14%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.60×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.45×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.30×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.15×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.86× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 13.00400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.86× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 13.00
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.12%
VaR 95%5%
0.04%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.08%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.93×0.97×1.01×1.05×1.09×1.13×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 11.12σ ann 323% · Sortino 20.37 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%489%978%1467%1956%2445%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)322.5%Ann. vol σ1111.6%Sharpe (ann)2037.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.0494.2384.4274.6164.8054.994t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:40:44 UTC
Snapshot age
5.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:40:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
62a61c88f1cb6ba16720049c48aa40db4fdcffb548729bb24dd78b2003cc41d8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,620HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.86K
bid $2.05K · ask $1.82K
Depth within 10bp
$12.81K
bid $6.53K · ask $6.27K
Depth within 50bp
$72.54K
bid $33.49K · ask $39.05K
Mid price
4.629600
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.074
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.066
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zen/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4.63113.14bp4.63172FILLED
BUY$10.00K4.63378.81bp4.63686FILLED
BUY$100.00K4.641525.72bp4.650720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K4.62842.68bp4.62752FILLED
SELL$10.00K4.62519.72bp4.62236FILLED
SELL$100.00K4.618424.29bp4.609020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-zen/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$4.0000–$5.0000★25$125.30K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zen/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.136 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$53.52K
real volume
Sell weight
$70.40K
real volume
Net delta
$16.88K
sellers net
Imbalance
-13.62%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zen/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h4.6405→4.53932.181%3
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z0ms4.5362→4.50020.794%1
#32026-06-19 21:00:00Z0ms4.3850→4.35550.673%1

/api/asset/hl-zen/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
322.51%
σ per bar = 0.001407
Mean return (annualised)
3584.95%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
11.12
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.15%
peak 4.49 → trough 4.22 over 1031 bars

/api/asset/hl-zen/risk · same metrics, JSON