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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WCT

WCT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wct · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.26%
realized vol (ann.)
78.39%
max drawdown
1.32%
sharpe
-6.84
ulcer index
0.73%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-737.38
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-437.10
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.26%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +4.26%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-wct/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.049
24h Δ · live
4.26%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
WCT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0498 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0465, 0.0529] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +5.23%σ NORMAL 3.59%LAST 0.04900.05290.05130.04970.04810.0465μ = 0.0498max 0.0529min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,586,741 · μ=343469.6 · σ=291640.8 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120275,378550,755826,1331,101,510μ = 3434701,101,51050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1101510 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
$mark $
$0.049
$mid $
$0.049
◉prev-day close
$0.047
Δ24h Δ %
+4.259%
$24h vol $
$428.48k
◐open interest $
$165.33k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0498 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0465, 0.0529] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +5.23%σ NORMAL 3.59%LAST 0.04900.05290.05130.04970.04810.0465μ = 0.0498max 0.0529min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0490 · 24h 4.26% · range $[0.0465, 0.0529]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0460, 0.0553] · σ=0.0018 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=38%BULLISH +4.06%CLOSE 0.0490 vs OPEN 0.0471 (+4.06%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.04900.05530.05300.05070.04830.0460μ close = 0.0498O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.11%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.11%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.74%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.74%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.23%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.23%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+1.43%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+1.43%)O0.048 H0.051 L0.048 C0.049 (+2.08%)O0.048 H0.051 L0.048 C0.049 (+2.08%)4.0%O0.049 H0.055 L0.049 C0.051 (+4.04%)O0.049 H0.055 L0.049 C0.051 (+4.04%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.86%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.86%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.052 C0.053 (+1.90%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.052 C0.053 (+1.90%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.61%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.61%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.18%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.18%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.051 C0.052 (-0.52%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.051 C0.052 (-0.52%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.051 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.051 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.03%)O0.052 H0.054 L0.051 C0.052 (+0.03%)O0.051 H0.052 L0.049 C0.050 (-3.67%)O0.051 H0.052 L0.049 C0.050 (-3.67%)O0.050 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.87%)O0.050 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.87%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.28%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.28%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (+0.04%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (+0.04%)O0.049 H0.050 L0.048 C0.048 (-1.20%)O0.049 H0.050 L0.048 C0.048 (-1.20%)O0.048 H0.049 L0.048 C0.049 (+0.75%)O0.048 H0.049 L0.048 C0.049 (+0.75%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.12%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.12%)O0.049 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (+0.91%)O0.049 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (+0.91%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.75%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (-0.75%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (+1.27%)O0.049 H0.049 L0.049 C0.049 (+1.27%)O0.050 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (-1.12%)O0.050 H0.050 L0.049 C0.049 (-1.12%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,586,741 · μ=343469.6 · σ=291640.8 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120275,378550,755826,1331,101,510μ = 343470182,686 · 16.6% peak182,686 · 16.6% peak203,668 · 18.5% peak203,668 · 18.5% peak47,090 · 4.3% peak47,090 · 4.3% peak53,875 · 4.9% peak53,875 · 4.9% peak709,864 · 64.4% peak709,864 · 64.4% peak1,101,5101,101,510 · 100.0% peak1,101,510 · 100.0% peak647,072 · 58.7% peak647,072 · 58.7% peak364,395 · 33.1% peak364,395 · 33.1% peak144,905 · 13.2% peak144,905 · 13.2% peak213,503 · 19.4% peak213,503 · 19.4% peak548,206 · 49.8% peak548,206 · 49.8% peak209,305 · 19.0% peak209,305 · 19.0% peak187,578 · 17.0% peak187,578 · 17.0% peak941,082 · 85.4% peak941,082 · 85.4% peak691,517 · 62.8% peak691,517 · 62.8% peak275,619 · 25.0% peak275,619 · 25.0% peak253,546 · 23.0% peak253,546 · 23.0% peak254,353 · 23.1% peak254,353 · 23.1% peak388,330 · 35.3% peak388,330 · 35.3% peak629,856 · 57.2% peak629,856 · 57.2% peak116,825 · 10.6% peak116,825 · 10.6% peak216,269 · 19.6% peak216,269 · 19.6% peak125,554 · 11.4% peak125,554 · 11.4% peak32,953 · 3.0% peak32,953 · 3.0% peak47,180 · 4.3% peak47,180 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8586741 · peak 1101510 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0154 · skew=-0.14 (symmetric) · kurt=0.41 (mesokurtic)65320 1-364.05bpbin -364.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -364.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-297.38bp 1-230.72bpbin -230.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -230.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-164.05bpbin -164.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -164.05bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-97.38bpbin -97.38bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -97.38bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 5-30.72bpbin -30.72bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -30.72bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 235.95bpbin 35.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 35.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6102.62bpbin 102.62bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 102.62bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2169.28bpbin 169.28bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 169.28bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1235.95bpbin 235.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 235.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak302.62bp 1369.29bpbin 369.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 369.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=1.27 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.049
Mid price
$0.049
24h change
+4.26%
Mark–mid spread
0.20 bps
Prev-day close
$0.047

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.19)
μ MEAN0.0498$95% CI: [0.0491$, 0.0505$]
σ STD DEV0.0018$σ² = 0.032×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.59%
med MEDIAN0.0492$Q₁ 0.0488$ · Q₃ 0.0516$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0063$ · IQR 0.0028$ (1.349σ→0.0024$)
min 0.0465$Q₁ 0.0488$med 0.0492$Q₃ 0.0516$max 0.0529$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.067approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.193platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.35
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.53
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=12.56
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.212307%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.134
σᵣ STD / h1.581634%σ²ᵣ = 2.502×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.45×
σ ANNUALISED148.03%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.582%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)12.56excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)13.97strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.88leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1859.81%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.88%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.885%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.516%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.980%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN8.39%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.885%VaR₉₉−3.516%ES₉₅−2.980%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK5.29$
−8.39% drawdown over 11h
4.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.58× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.87× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +9.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.279 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0533
Bollinger MA
$0.0503
Bollinger lower
$0.0473

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.301within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.399lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.968strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.134fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.968
H = 0.968STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.301k=2+0.399k=3+0.095k=4+0.216k=5-0.1680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$428.48k
Open interest (USD)
$165.33k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.59x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.487× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.243× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.122×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.03% · worst -3.97% · typical |Δ| 1.16%MILD BULLISH +5.10%BEST+4.03%16hWORST-3.97%01hTYPICAL |Δ|1.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.70% · Σ -5.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.81% · Σ +6.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.53% · Σ +4.23%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.10%+12.72%0.00%0.68% · 12h0.68% · 12h0.68%12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h1.96% · 14h1.96% · 14h1.96%14h2.40% · 15h2.40% · 15h2.40%15h4.03% · 16h4.03% · 16h4.03%16h★ BEST1.18% · 17h1.18% · 17h1.18%17h1.48% · 18h1.48% · 18h1.48%18h-1.99% · 19h-1.99% · 19h-1.99%19h0.72% · 20h0.72% · 20h0.72%20h-0.42% · 21h-0.42% · 21h-0.42%21h-0.75% · 22h-0.75% · 22h-0.75%22h-0.02% · 23h-0.02% · 23h-0.02%23h-0.06% · 00h-0.06% · 00h-0.06%00h-3.97% · 01h-3.97% · 01h-3.97%01h▼ WORST-0.76% · 02h-0.76% · 02h-0.76%02h-0.27% · 03h-0.27% · 03h-0.27%03h0.08% · 04h0.08% · 04h0.08%04h-1.32% · 05h-1.32% · 05h-1.32%05h0.82% · 06h0.82% · 06h0.82%06h-0.13% · 07h-0.13% · 07h-0.13%07h0.84% · 08h0.84% · 08h0.84%08h-0.65% · 09h-0.65% · 09h-0.65%09h1.26% · 10h1.26% · 10h1.26%10h-1.00% · 11h-1.00% · 11h-1.00%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+6.48%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 7BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 4.03% · worst -3.97% · typical |Δ| 1.157%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.92%FINAL+4.92%MAX DD-8.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+13.39%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0492 · peak 1.1339 · range [1.0000, 1.1339]1.13391.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1339UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.49% · significant0%-8.49%▼ TROUGH -8.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -8.49%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0492 (4.92%) · max DD -8.49% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=4.74 · σ=67.04MIXED EDGELAST 19.34 (+0.22σ vs μ)168.4784.240.00-84.24-168.47μ = 4.74142.28142.28168.47168.4771.2571.2561.2661.2638.7338.732.672.67-12.67-12.67-43.10-43.10-42.49-42.49-62.51-62.51-60.43-60.43-49.91-49.91-64.67-64.67-50.67-50.67-33.91-33.910.320.32-6.71-6.7112.8412.8419.3419.34v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 19.338 · range [-64.67, 168.47] · μ 4.742 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=125.4547 · σ=38.8490 · range [68.1526, 188.4316] · R²=0.268▼ FALLING -25.51%σ EXTREME 30.97%LAST 85.8870188.4316158.3619128.292198.222468.1526μ = 125.4547max 188.4316min 68.1526dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 85.89% · range [68.15%, 188.43%] · μ 125.45% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.252 · σ=0.274MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.748 (-1.81σ vs μ)0.7480.3740.000-0.374-0.748μ = -0.2520.0850.085-0.067-0.0670.0980.0980.2000.200-0.002-0.002-0.297-0.297-0.659-0.659-0.428-0.428-0.090-0.090-0.198-0.198-0.190-0.190-0.122-0.122-0.255-0.255-0.061-0.061-0.510-0.510-0.441-0.441-0.548-0.548-0.558-0.558-0.748-0.748v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.748 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.6950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1576
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.6330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0854
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8889
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3481
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1822
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3879
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.6465
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.805 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.81e-4 · top T=24.00h (31.7%) · top-3 cover 69.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-38.0e-45.4e-42.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.07e-3 · 31.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.07e-3 · 31.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.61e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.61e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.02e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.02e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.30e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.30e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.55e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.55e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.17e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.17e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.46e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.46e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.65e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.65e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-3 · 29.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-3 · 29.7% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 31.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.378e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.37× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.69× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.13%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.13%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.37×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.69×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.18×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.59×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.17× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 12.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.17× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 12.08
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.15%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.13%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.5%
0.91×0.96×1.01×1.06×1.10×1.15×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 13.76σ ann 293% · Sortino 24.06 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%577%1155%1732%2310%2887%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)293.2%Ann. vol σ1375.5%Sharpe (ann)2406.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0430.0450.0460.0480.0500.052t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
97448337c266794ea6d5032beb86fb249a672c6e76fcd0158a495221b2b542ad · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.51K
bid $2.63K · ask $1.89K
Depth within 10bp
$9.08K
bid $5.50K · ask $3.58K
Depth within 50bp
$21.66K
bid $11.79K · ask $9.87K
Mid price
0.049016
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.003
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.216
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wct/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0490323.34bp0.0490402FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04910017.08bp0.04931811FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.049586116.22bp0.05014820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0490042.48bp0.0489982FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04896310.81bp0.04886511FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04856392.32bp0.04792220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-wct/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$8.59M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wct/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.065 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.47M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.93M
real volume
Net delta
$544.76K
buyers net
Imbalance
6.48%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-wct/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 8.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 19:00:00Z10.0h0.052854→0.0484228.385%11
#22026-06-20 11:00:00Z0ms0.049470→0.0489760.999%1
#32026-06-20 09:00:00Z0ms0.049168→0.0488490.649%1

/api/asset/hl-wct/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
293.15%
σ per bar = 0.001279
Mean return (annualised)
4032.34%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
13.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.15%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 1583 bars

/api/asset/hl-wct/risk · same metrics, JSON