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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

USUAL

USUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-usual · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.43%
realized vol (ann.)
92.96%
max drawdown
0.89%
sharpe
18.34
ulcer index
0.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
3397.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2072.05
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
610
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.43%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-54.68%
signalLONGconfidence 47%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +4.43%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 29.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-usual/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
4.43%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
USUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0099 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0097, 0.0101] · R²=0.727▲ RISING +4.43%σ NORMAL 1.25%LAST 0.01010.01010.01000.00990.00980.0097μ = 0.0099max 0.0101min 0.0097dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.006242% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,551,647 · μ=262065.9 · σ=241334.2 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160233,031466,062699,093932,124μ = 262066932,123.750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 932124 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$0.0101
$mid $
$0.0101
◉prev-day close
$0.0097
Δ24h Δ %
+4.433%
$24h vol $
$63.87k
◐open interest $
$154.12k
%funding (1h)
-0.006242%
%funding (yr)
-54.68%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0099 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0097, 0.0101] · R²=0.727▲ RISING +4.43%σ NORMAL 1.25%LAST 0.01010.01010.01000.00990.00980.0097μ = 0.0099max 0.0101min 0.0097dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0101 · 24h 4.43% · range $[0.0097, 0.0101]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0097, 0.0102] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%BULLISH +4.21%CLOSE 0.0101 vs OPEN 0.0097 (+4.21%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01010.01020.01000.00990.00980.0097μ close = 0.0099O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.41%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.21%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.31%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.72%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.72%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.12%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.12%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.30%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.30%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.20%)-1.5%O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.80%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.80%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.70%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.70%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.40%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.80%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.80%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,551,647 · μ=262065.9 · σ=241334.2 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160233,031466,062699,093932,124μ = 262066157,623 · 16.9% peak157,623 · 16.9% peak33,273.3 · 3.6% peak33,273.3 · 3.6% peak95,819.2 · 10.3% peak95,819.2 · 10.3% peak39,963.6 · 4.3% peak39,963.6 · 4.3% peak237,095.7 · 25.4% peak237,095.7 · 25.4% peak393,789.7 · 42.2% peak393,789.7 · 42.2% peak228,341.9 · 24.5% peak228,341.9 · 24.5% peak132,192.3 · 14.2% peak132,192.3 · 14.2% peak86,804.8 · 9.3% peak86,804.8 · 9.3% peak501,578.4 · 53.8% peak501,578.4 · 53.8% peak135,382.4 · 14.5% peak135,382.4 · 14.5% peak28,104.1 · 3.0% peak28,104.1 · 3.0% peak79,058.3 · 8.5% peak79,058.3 · 8.5% peak323,364.5 · 34.7% peak323,364.5 · 34.7% peak54,596.9 · 5.9% peak54,596.9 · 5.9% peak932,123.7932,123.7 · 100.0% peak932,123.7 · 100.0% peak136,232.5 · 14.6% peak136,232.5 · 14.6% peak651,809.5 · 69.9% peak651,809.5 · 69.9% peak357,204.4 · 38.3% peak357,204.4 · 38.3% peak49,413.3 · 5.3% peak49,413.3 · 5.3% peak7,027.6 · 0.8% peak7,027.6 · 0.8% peak429,793.4 · 46.1% peak429,793.4 · 46.1% peak507,646.6 · 54.5% peak507,646.6 · 54.5% peak295,265.6 · 31.7% peak295,265.6 · 31.7% peak658,142.2 · 70.6% peak658,142.2 · 70.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6551647 · peak 932124 · CV 0.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0016 · σ=0.0067 · skew=-0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.01 (mesokurtic)54310 1-145.96bpbin -145.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -145.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-118.50bp 1-91.05bpbin -91.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -91.05bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-63.60bpbin -63.60bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -63.60bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-36.15bpbin -36.15bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -36.15bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-8.69bpbin -8.69bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -8.69bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 418.76bpbin 18.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 18.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 246.21bpbin 46.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 46.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 373.66bpbin 73.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 73.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3101.12bpbin 101.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 101.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak128.57bp 1156.02bpbin 156.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 156.02bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.24 · kurt=0.58 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0101
Mid price
$0.0101
24h change
+4.43%
Mark–mid spread
9.87 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0097

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0099$95% CI: [0.0099$, 0.0100$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.25%
med MEDIAN0.0099$Q₁ 0.0099$ · Q₃ 0.0100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0097$Q₁ 0.0099$med 0.0099$Q₃ 0.0100$max 0.0101$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.426approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.743mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=24.31
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.180549%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.260
σᵣ STD / h0.695043%σ²ᵣ = 0.483×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.85×
σ ANNUALISED65.05%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.695%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)24.31excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)27.16strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.25approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.02leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.12
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1581.61%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.757%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.414%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.199%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.58%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.757%VaR₉₉−1.414%ES₉₅−1.199%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK1.01$
−1.58% drawdown over 1h
0.99$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.58× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.87× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.61% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
68.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.993 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0101
Bollinger MA
$0.0100
Bollinger lower
$0.0098

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.383within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.066lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.803strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.818significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.803
H = 0.803STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.383k=2+0.066k=3-0.244k=4+0.320k=5-0.2280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$63.87k
Open interest (USD)
$154.12k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.41x
1h funding
-0.006242%
Funding (annualised)
-54.68%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.70% · worst -1.60% · typical |Δ| 0.55%MILD BULLISH +4.33%BEST+1.70%17hWORST-1.60%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.33%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.29%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.24% · Σ +1.94%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.33%+4.33%-0.21%0.51% · 08h0.51% · 08h0.51%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-0.31% · 10h-0.31% · 10h-0.31%10h1.13% · 11h1.13% · 11h1.13%11h0.31% · 12h0.31% · 12h0.31%12h1.01% · 13h1.01% · 13h1.01%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.20% · 15h0.20% · 15h0.20%15h0.30% · 16h0.30% · 16h0.30%16h1.70% · 17h1.70% · 17h1.70%17h★ BEST-1.60% · 18h-1.60% · 18h-1.60%18h▼ WORST0.60% · 19h0.60% · 19h0.60%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h0.60% · 23h0.60% · 23h0.60%23h-0.20% · 00h-0.20% · 00h-0.20%00h0.30% · 01h0.30% · 01h0.30%01h-0.80% · 02h-0.80% · 02h-0.80%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h0.70% · 04h0.70% · 04h0.70%04h0.90% · 05h0.90% · 05h0.90%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.49% · 07h0.49% · 07h0.49%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.94%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 42% down · 4% flat
13 up bars · 10 down · best 1.70% · worst -1.60% · typical |Δ| 0.549%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +4.37% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+4.37%MAX DD-1.60%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+4.37%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0437 · peak 1.0437 · range [0.9979, 1.0437]1.04370.9979break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0437UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.60% · moderate0%-1.60%▼ TROUGH -1.60%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.60%bar 12-24 · 13 bars · recovered#2 -0.72%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 8-10 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.60%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0437 (4.37%) · max DD -1.60% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=20.07 · σ=23.52PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 29.71 (+0.41σ vs μ)63.9331.970.00-31.97-63.93μ = 20.0754.1454.1426.1226.1242.9442.9463.9363.9362.0762.0715.0715.079.929.9216.1316.1311.6611.662.892.89-17.32-17.3219.1819.189.039.03-16.03-16.03-12.80-12.8016.7616.7622.4622.4625.4025.4029.7129.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 29.705 · range [-17.32, 63.93] · μ 20.067 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=68.1863 · σ=23.6642 · range [32.2971, 107.8310] · R²=0.139▼ FALLING -3.15%σ EXTREME 34.71%LAST 58.5123107.831088.947570.064051.180632.2971μ = 68.1863max 107.8310min 32.2971dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.51% · range [32.30%, 107.83%] · μ 68.19% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.325 · σ=0.242MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.079 (+1.67σ vs μ)0.6190.3100.000-0.310-0.619μ = -0.325-0.089-0.089-0.209-0.209-0.448-0.448-0.268-0.268-0.171-0.171-0.467-0.467-0.538-0.538-0.589-0.589-0.570-0.570-0.619-0.619-0.360-0.360-0.404-0.404-0.541-0.541-0.457-0.457-0.512-0.512-0.230-0.2300.1430.1430.0750.0750.0790.079v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.079 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2961
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.7665
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0556
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1715
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2414
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7627
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0088
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3973
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1623
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.575 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.89e-5 · top T=2.00h (42.7%) · top-3 cover 73.4%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.3e-41.5e-47.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.31e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.37e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.37e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.47e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.47e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.26e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.26e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.20e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.20e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.53e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.53e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.22e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.22e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 42.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 42.7% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.065e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4726 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.33× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.23× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.23%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.23%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.33×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.23×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.16×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.58×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.3×2.6×3.9×5.3×6.6×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.56× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 13.62400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.56× · bootstrap from 4725 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 13.62
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.13%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.18%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.04×1.08×1.12×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 11.65σ ann 523% · Sortino 5.69 · n 4725 · ⚠ capped (n=4725 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%279%559%838%1118%1397%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)522.7%Ann. vol σ1164.5%Sharpe (ann)569.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0090.0100.0100.0110.011t-4725t-3938t-3150t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a39bdfca26593aeb1f2e6f427fdf1abb8e038c5d29626323b262f7c99a88df43 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$4.37K
bid $2.07K · ask $2.30K
Depth within 50bp
$27.32K
bid $13.37K · ask $13.95K
Mid price
0.010140
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
19.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.030
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.019
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-usual/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0101509.86bp0.0101501FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01016121.16bp0.0101804FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.010415270.95bp0.01792020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0101309.86bp0.0101301FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01011821.87bp0.0101004FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009890246.44bp0.00302020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-6.242e-5
-0.00624% / hr
Annualised APR
-54.714%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
6.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
6.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE54.714%6.7d66.8d
SHORTPAY-54.714%6.7d66.8d

/api/asset/hl-usual/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.55M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-usual/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.184 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.78M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.61M
real volume
Net delta
$1.17M
buyers net
Imbalance
18.37%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-usual/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.58% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z2.0h0.010100→0.0099401.584%3
#22026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.010020→0.0099400.798%2
#32026-06-19 10:00:00Z0ms0.009760→0.0096900.717%1

/api/asset/hl-usual/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,726 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
522.67%
σ per bar = 0.002281
Mean return (annualised)
6086.69%
μ per bar = 0.000012
Sharpe (rf=0)
11.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.40%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4071 bars

/api/asset/hl-usual/risk · same metrics, JSON