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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TURBO

TURBO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-turbo · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.12%
realized vol (ann.)
70.14%
max drawdown
0.68%
sharpe
-68.73
ulcer index
0.27%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-17547.61
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-8016.98
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
619
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.12%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-15.43%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -1.12%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-turbo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
-1.12%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
TURBO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.214▼ FALLING -1.01%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.6%Short fee 51.4%SHORT FEE51.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001762% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=86,714,592 · μ=3468583.7 · σ=1962537.6 · CV=0.57FADING -33% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1102,158,1564,316,3116,474,4678,632,622μ = 34685848,632,62250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8632622 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$0.0009
$mid $
$0.0009
◉prev-day close
$0.0009
Δ24h Δ %
-1.125%
$24h vol $
$74.15k
◐open interest $
$264.20k
%funding (1h)
-0.001762%
%funding (yr)
-15.43%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · R²=0.214▼ FALLING -1.01%σ LOW 0.77%LAST 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ = 0.0009max 0.0009min 0.0009dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0009 · 24h -1.12% · range $[0.0009, 0.0009]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0009, 0.0009] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BEARISH -1.23%CLOSE 0.0009 vs OPEN 0.0009 (-1.23%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00090.00090.00090.00090.00090.0009μ close = 0.0009O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.67%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.67%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.34%)1.7%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.70%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.33%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.89%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.90%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.90%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.45%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.34%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.90%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.90%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.11%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.79%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.79%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=86,714,592 · μ=3468583.7 · σ=1962537.6 · CV=0.57FADING -33% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1102,158,1564,316,3116,474,4678,632,622μ = 34685843,234,494 · 37.5% peak3,234,494 · 37.5% peak1,913,028 · 22.2% peak1,913,028 · 22.2% peak4,617,280 · 53.5% peak4,617,280 · 53.5% peak6,643,334 · 77.0% peak6,643,334 · 77.0% peak6,440,025 · 74.6% peak6,440,025 · 74.6% peak3,385,663 · 39.2% peak3,385,663 · 39.2% peak5,773,694 · 66.9% peak5,773,694 · 66.9% peak4,085,538 · 47.3% peak4,085,538 · 47.3% peak2,094,371 · 24.3% peak2,094,371 · 24.3% peak4,968,100 · 57.6% peak4,968,100 · 57.6% peak6,115,697 · 70.8% peak6,115,697 · 70.8% peak2,602,035 · 30.1% peak2,602,035 · 30.1% peak1,765,003 · 20.4% peak1,765,003 · 20.4% peak8,632,6228,632,622 · 100.0% peak8,632,622 · 100.0% peak1,273,562 · 14.8% peak1,273,562 · 14.8% peak2,158,561 · 25.0% peak2,158,561 · 25.0% peak1,656,475 · 19.2% peak1,656,475 · 19.2% peak1,937,737 · 22.4% peak1,937,737 · 22.4% peak4,010,631 · 46.5% peak4,010,631 · 46.5% peak2,325,863 · 26.9% peak2,325,863 · 26.9% peak2,078,265 · 24.1% peak2,078,265 · 24.1% peak1,910,320 · 22.1% peak1,910,320 · 22.1% peak1,854,740 · 21.5% peak1,854,740 · 21.5% peak3,064,842 · 35.5% peak3,064,842 · 35.5% peak2,172,712 · 25.2% peak2,172,712 · 25.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 86714592 · peak 8632622 · CV 0.57

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0070 · skew=0.71 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.01 (mesokurtic)54310 5-88.94bpbin -88.94bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -88.94bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-65.59bpbin -65.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -65.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-42.24bpbin -42.24bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -42.24bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-18.89bpbin -18.89bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -18.89bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 54.46bpbin 4.46bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 4.46bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 227.81bpbin 27.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 27.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 351.16bpbin 51.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 51.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 174.51bpbin 74.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 74.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak97.86bp121.20bp 1144.55bpbin 144.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 144.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1167.90bpbin 167.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 167.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.73 · kurt=0.24 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0009
Mid price
$0.0009
24h change
-1.12%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0009

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0009$95% CI: [0.0009$, 0.0009$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.77%
med MEDIAN0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$ · Q₃ 0.0009$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0009$Q₁ 0.0009$med 0.0009$Q₃ 0.0009$max 0.0009$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.386approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.618mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.32
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.80
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.55
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.042397%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.059
σᵣ STD / h0.715329%σ²ᵣ = 0.512×10⁻⁴ · CV = 16.87×
σ ANNUALISED66.95%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.715%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.55negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.66downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.78right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.60mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-371.40%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.91%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.908%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.984%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.958%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.88%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.908%VaR₉₉−0.984%ES₉₅−0.958%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK0.09$
−2.88% drawdown over 9h
0.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.249 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0009
Bollinger MA
$0.0009
Bollinger lower
$0.0009

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.353within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.026lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.916strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.505significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.916
H = 0.916STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.353k=2+0.026k=3-0.050k=4-0.136k=5+0.1800+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.50)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.50)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$74.15k
Open interest (USD)
$264.20k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.28x
1h funding
-0.001762%
Funding (annualised)
-15.43%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-8.286× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.143× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.071×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.80% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.56%MILD BEARISH -1.02%BEST+1.80%13hWORST-1.01%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.02%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.02%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.12%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.12%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.02%+1.45%-1.47%0.11% · 08h0.11% · 08h0.11%08h-0.45% · 09h-0.45% · 09h-0.45%09h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.57% · 11h-0.57% · 11h-0.57%11h0.23% · 12h0.23% · 12h0.23%12h1.80% · 13h1.80% · 13h1.80%13h★ BEST-0.45% · 14h-0.45% · 14h-0.45%14h0.45% · 15h0.45% · 15h0.45%15h-1.01% · 16h-1.01% · 16h-1.01%16h▼ WORST1.34% · 17h1.34% · 17h1.34%17h-0.89% · 18h-0.89% · 18h-0.89%18h-0.79% · 19h-0.79% · 19h-0.79%19h0.67% · 20h0.67% · 20h0.67%20h-0.90% · 21h-0.90% · 21h-0.90%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.45% · 23h0.45% · 23h0.45%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h-0.23% · 01h-0.23% · 01h-0.23%01h-0.91% · 02h-0.91% · 02h-0.91%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h0.11% · 04h0.11% · 04h0.11%04h0.57% · 05h0.57% · 05h0.57%05h0.34% · 06h0.34% · 06h0.34%06h-0.68% · 07h-0.68% · 07h-0.68%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.12%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 1.80% · worst -1.01% · typical |Δ| 0.557%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.07%)FINAL-1.07%MAX DD-2.90%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.43%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9893 · peak 1.0143 · range [0.9848, 1.0143]1.01430.9848break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0143UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.90% · moderate0%-2.90%▼ TROUGH -2.90%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.90%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.01%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -1.01%bar 8-10 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.90%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9893 (-1.07%) · max DD -2.90% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-8.12 · σ=23.25UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -12.07 (-0.17σ vs μ)56.8828.440.00-28.44-56.88μ = -8.1220.5520.559.849.8426.6326.637.057.0534.8634.8616.3616.36-22.57-22.57-3.54-3.54-24.31-24.31-9.35-9.35-31.85-31.85-21.82-21.82-9.30-9.30-56.88-56.88-30.61-30.61-26.22-26.22-21.01-21.01-0.00-0.00-12.07-12.07v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -12.071 · range [-56.88, 34.86] · μ -8.118 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=72.2914 · σ=21.5706 · range [43.3121, 110.4803] · R²=0.633▼ FALLING -30.96%σ EXTREME 29.84%LAST 54.8535110.480393.688276.896260.104243.3121μ = 72.2914max 110.4803min 43.3121dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.85% · range [43.31%, 110.48%] · μ 72.29% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.272 · σ=0.280MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.009 (+1.00σ vs μ)0.6190.3090.000-0.309-0.619μ = -0.2720.0950.095-0.169-0.169-0.282-0.282-0.267-0.267-0.514-0.514-0.589-0.589-0.594-0.594-0.590-0.590-0.583-0.583-0.411-0.411-0.293-0.293-0.619-0.619-0.453-0.453-0.007-0.007-0.142-0.142-0.142-0.1420.1110.1110.2770.2770.0090.009v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.009 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.7763
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2495
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.1136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4027
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3026
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1786
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8739
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0365
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3798
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1676
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.580 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.08e-5 · top T=2.40h (34.9%) · top-3 cover 54.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.83e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.83e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.94e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.99e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.99e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.32e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.32e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.13e-4 · 34.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.13e-4 · 34.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 7.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 34.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.102e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4735 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.06× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.02× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.19%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.19%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.06×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.03×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.52×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.2×2.4×3.6×4.8×6.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.50× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 7.42400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.50× · bootstrap from 4734 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.42
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.09%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.15%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 8.66σ ann 430% · Sortino 4.17 · n 4734 · ⚠ capped (n=4734 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)429.5%Ann. vol σ866.2%Sharpe (ann)416.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4734t-3945t-3156t-2367t-1578t-789t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:31 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:33 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
37ef6d5220d5a080c5103df01599a4abf66a3771d2a83d2cd902f1f916ae66ae · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,642HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.06HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$8.61K
bid $290 · ask $8.32K
Depth within 50bp
$45.16K
bid $19.94K · ask $25.22K
Mid price
0.000880
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.027
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.091
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-turbo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0008805.69bp0.0008801FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0008807.60bp0.0008812FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000890114.57bp0.00091220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00087813.76bp0.0008782FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00087819.04bp0.0008773FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000865168.85bp0.00083820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.762e-5
-0.00176% / hr
Annualised APR
-15.444%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
23.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
23.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE15.444%23.7d236.5d
SHORTPAY-15.444%23.7d236.5d

/api/asset/hl-turbo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$86.71M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-turbo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.078 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$38.48M
real volume
Sell weight
$45.00M
real volume
Net delta
$6.52M
sellers net
Imbalance
-7.81%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-turbo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.88% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.000902→0.0008851.885%5
#22026-06-20 01:00:00Z3.0h0.000889→0.0008761.462%4
#32026-06-19 11:00:00Z0ms0.000890→0.0008811.011%1

/api/asset/hl-turbo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,735 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
429.53%
σ per bar = 0.001875
Mean return (annualised)
3720.51%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
8.66
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.67%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3976 bars

/api/asset/hl-turbo/risk · same metrics, JSON