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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TRB

TRB-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-trb · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.35%
realized vol (ann.)
35.70%
max drawdown
1.24%
sharpe
-57.51
ulcer index
0.57%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3576.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1933.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.35%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-trb/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$13.775
24h Δ · live
0.35%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
TRB · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=13.8542 · σ=0.0647 · range [13.7070, 13.9800] · R²=0.004▲ RISING +0.47%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 13.771013.980013.911813.843513.775213.7070μ = 13.8542max 13.9800min 13.7070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $13.77
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,481 · μ=219.2 · σ=135.5 · CV=0.62RISING +50% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150171341512682μ = 219682.1450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 682 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.6s
$mark $
$13.775
$mid $
$13.776
◉prev-day close
$13.727
Δ24h Δ %
+0.350%
$24h vol $
$73.45k
◐open interest $
$423.11k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=13.8542 · σ=0.0647 · range [13.7070, 13.9800] · R²=0.004▲ RISING +0.47%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 13.771013.980013.911813.843513.775213.7070μ = 13.8542max 13.9800min 13.7070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $13.7750 · 24h 0.35% · range $[13.7070, 13.9800]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [13.6390, 14.0450] · σ=0.0647 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +0.65%CLOSE 13.7710 vs OPEN 13.6820 (+0.65%)&#9650; CLOSE 13.771014.045013.943513.842013.740513.6390μ close = 13.8542O13.682 H13.730 L13.661 C13.707 (+0.18%)O13.682 H13.730 L13.661 C13.707 (+0.18%)O13.706 H13.781 L13.639 C13.778 (+0.53%)O13.706 H13.781 L13.639 C13.778 (+0.53%)O13.809 H13.984 L13.779 C13.928 (+0.86%)O13.809 H13.984 L13.779 C13.928 (+0.86%)O13.928 H13.974 L13.857 C13.857 (-0.51%)O13.928 H13.974 L13.857 C13.857 (-0.51%)O13.847 H13.912 L13.819 C13.901 (+0.39%)O13.847 H13.912 L13.819 C13.901 (+0.39%)O13.929 H13.982 L13.897 C13.905 (-0.17%)O13.929 H13.982 L13.897 C13.905 (-0.17%)O13.904 H13.980 L13.850 C13.944 (+0.29%)O13.904 H13.980 L13.850 C13.944 (+0.29%)O13.942 H13.942 L13.845 C13.847 (-0.68%)O13.942 H13.942 L13.845 C13.847 (-0.68%)O13.871 H13.874 L13.756 C13.803 (-0.49%)O13.871 H13.874 L13.756 C13.803 (-0.49%)O13.808 H13.876 L13.801 C13.858 (+0.36%)O13.808 H13.876 L13.801 C13.858 (+0.36%)O13.867 H13.887 L13.754 C13.792 (-0.54%)O13.867 H13.887 L13.754 C13.792 (-0.54%)O13.795 H13.874 L13.782 C13.839 (+0.32%)O13.795 H13.874 L13.782 C13.839 (+0.32%)O13.857 H13.921 L13.819 C13.906 (+0.35%)O13.857 H13.921 L13.819 C13.906 (+0.35%)O13.945 H13.960 L13.845 C13.845 (-0.72%)O13.945 H13.960 L13.845 C13.845 (-0.72%)O13.865 H13.909 L13.831 C13.863 (-0.01%)O13.865 H13.909 L13.831 C13.863 (-0.01%)O13.862 H13.880 L13.758 C13.831 (-0.22%)O13.862 H13.880 L13.758 C13.831 (-0.22%)O13.804 H13.842 L13.798 C13.798 (-0.04%)O13.804 H13.842 L13.798 C13.798 (-0.04%)O13.828 H13.878 L13.821 C13.865 (+0.27%)O13.828 H13.878 L13.821 C13.865 (+0.27%)O13.908 H14.045 L13.879 C13.980 (+0.52%)O13.908 H14.045 L13.879 C13.980 (+0.52%)O13.954 H13.978 L13.929 C13.976 (+0.16%)O13.954 H13.978 L13.929 C13.976 (+0.16%)-0.9%O13.990 H13.990 L13.862 C13.862 (-0.91%)O13.990 H13.990 L13.862 C13.862 (-0.91%)O13.874 H13.898 L13.832 C13.858 (-0.12%)O13.874 H13.898 L13.832 C13.858 (-0.12%)O13.870 H13.900 L13.847 C13.847 (-0.17%)O13.870 H13.900 L13.847 C13.847 (-0.17%)O13.857 H13.885 L13.770 C13.795 (-0.45%)O13.857 H13.885 L13.770 C13.795 (-0.45%)O13.786 H13.800 L13.735 C13.771 (-0.11%)O13.786 H13.800 L13.735 C13.771 (-0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,481 · μ=219.2 · σ=135.5 · CV=0.62RISING +50% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150171341512682μ = 219199.86 · 29.3% peak199.86 · 29.3% peak103.32 · 15.1% peak103.32 · 15.1% peak168.18 · 24.7% peak168.18 · 24.7% peak390.21 · 57.2% peak390.21 · 57.2% peak168.99 · 24.8% peak168.99 · 24.8% peak121.45 · 17.8% peak121.45 · 17.8% peak289.06 · 42.4% peak289.06 · 42.4% peak54.89 · 8.0% peak54.89 · 8.0% peak162.65 · 23.8% peak162.65 · 23.8% peak232.25 · 34.0% peak232.25 · 34.0% peak160.14 · 23.5% peak160.14 · 23.5% peak141.82 · 20.8% peak141.82 · 20.8% peak217.24 · 31.8% peak217.24 · 31.8% peak280.22 · 41.1% peak280.22 · 41.1% peak317.89 · 46.6% peak317.89 · 46.6% peak682.14682.14 · 100.0% peak682.14 · 100.0% peak245.01 · 35.9% peak245.01 · 35.9% peak81.93 · 12.0% peak81.93 · 12.0% peak353.44 · 51.8% peak353.44 · 51.8% peak172.99 · 25.4% peak172.99 · 25.4% peak110.25 · 16.2% peak110.25 · 16.2% peak112.11 · 16.4% peak112.11 · 16.4% peak324.8 · 47.6% peak324.8 · 47.6% peak327.53 · 48.0% peak327.53 · 48.0% peak62.63 · 9.2% peak62.63 · 9.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5481 · peak 682 · CV 0.62

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0047 · skew=0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.73 (mesokurtic)43210 2-73.98bpbin -73.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -73.98bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-58.13bpbin -58.13bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -58.13bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-42.28bpbin -42.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -42.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-26.43bpbin -26.43bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -26.43bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-10.58bpbin -10.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -10.58bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 25.26bpbin 5.26bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 5.26bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 121.11bpbin 21.11bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 21.11bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 336.96bpbin 36.96bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 36.96bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 352.81bpbin 52.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 52.81bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak68.66bp 184.51bpbin 84.51bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 84.51bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1100.36bpbin 100.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 100.36bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.29 · kurt=-0.51 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$13.775
Mid price
$13.776
24h change
+0.35%
Mark–mid spread
0.73 bps
Prev-day close
$13.727

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN13.8542$95% CI: [13.8289$, 13.8796$]
σ STD DEV0.0647$σ² = 41.844×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN13.8570$Q₁ 13.8030$ · Q₃ 13.9010$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2730$ · IQR 0.0980$ (1.349σ→0.0873$)
min 13.7070$Q₁ 13.8030$med 13.8570$Q₃ 13.9010$max 13.9800$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.045approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.305mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.22
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.79
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.019410%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.040
σᵣ STD / h0.479273%σ²ᵣ = 0.230×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.69×
σ ANNUALISED44.86%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.479%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.79excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)4.38strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.31approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.34mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.16
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+170.03%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.67%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.670%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.791%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.759%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.49%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.670%VaR₉₉−0.791%ES₉₅−0.759%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK1398.00$
−1.49% drawdown over 6h
1377.10$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
48.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.122 · within band
Bollinger upper
$13.9760
Bollinger MA
$13.8592
Bollinger lower
$13.7425

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.051within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.207lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.883strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.291fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.883
H = 0.883STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.051k=2-0.207k=3+0.070k=4-0.037k=5-0.1230+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.29)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.29)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$73.45k
Open interest (USD)
$423.11k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.450× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.225× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.112×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.08% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.39%MILD BULLISH +0.47%BEST+1.08%13hWORST-0.82%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.39%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.47%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 6down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.32%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.47%+1.97%0.00%0.52% · 12h0.52% · 12h0.52%12h1.08% · 13h1.08% · 13h1.08%13h★ BEST-0.51% · 14h-0.51% · 14h-0.51%14h0.32% · 15h0.32% · 15h0.32%15h0.03% · 16h0.03% · 16h0.03%16h0.28% · 17h0.28% · 17h0.28%17h-0.70% · 18h-0.70% · 18h-0.70%18h-0.32% · 19h-0.32% · 19h-0.32%19h0.40% · 20h0.40% · 20h0.40%20h-0.48% · 21h-0.48% · 21h-0.48%21h0.34% · 22h0.34% · 22h0.34%22h0.48% · 23h0.48% · 23h0.48%23h-0.44% · 00h-0.44% · 00h-0.44%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.23% · 02h-0.23% · 02h-0.23%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h0.48% · 04h0.48% · 04h0.48%04h0.83% · 05h0.83% · 05h0.83%05h-0.03% · 06h-0.03% · 06h-0.03%06h-0.82% · 07h-0.82% · 07h-0.82%07h▼ WORST-0.03% · 08h-0.03% · 08h-0.03%08h-0.08% · 09h-0.08% · 09h-0.08%09h-0.38% · 10h-0.38% · 10h-0.38%10h-0.17% · 11h-0.17% · 11h-0.17%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.75%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.08% · worst -0.82% · typical |Δ| 0.388%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.44%FINAL+0.44%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.97%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0044 · peak 1.0197 · range [1.0000, 1.0197]1.01971.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0197UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.50%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.09%bar 8-18 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -0.51%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0044 (0.44%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-1.55 · σ=26.79MIXED EDGELAST -76.44 (-2.79σ vs μ)76.4438.220.00-38.22-76.44μ = -1.5550.7150.7112.1412.14-33.26-33.260.260.26-28.16-28.16-15.60-15.60-8.31-8.31-0.50-0.5015.8315.83-7.45-7.451.851.857.407.4016.9716.9734.6834.68-0.19-0.195.315.319.859.85-14.61-14.61-76.44-76.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -76.435 · range [-76.44, 50.71] · μ -1.554 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.2047 · σ=7.8661 · range [28.7717, 60.0636] · R²=0.007▼ FALLING -41.71%σ EXTREME 17.79%LAST 28.771760.063652.240744.417736.594728.7717μ = 44.2047max 60.0636min 28.7717dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.77% · range [28.77%, 60.06%] · μ 44.20% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.180 · σ=0.279MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.520 (-1.22σ vs μ)0.5200.2600.000-0.260-0.520μ = -0.180-0.347-0.347-0.442-0.442-0.170-0.170-0.088-0.088-0.361-0.361-0.482-0.482-0.074-0.074-0.510-0.510-0.499-0.499-0.338-0.338-0.119-0.119-0.430-0.4300.1950.1950.1440.1440.2010.2010.1780.1780.2700.270-0.022-0.022-0.520-0.520v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.520 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4948
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7808
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9666
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8548
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.5269
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0075
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0782
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1398
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2544
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.653 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.24e-5 · top T=4.00h (19.2%) · top-3 cover 54.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.2e-53.9e-52.6e-51.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.86e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.86e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.44e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.44e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.16e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.16e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.16e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.16e-5 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.03e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.03e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.81e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.81e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.33e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.33e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 3.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 19.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.692e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -5.82× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-5.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.46400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.46
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -8.71σ ann 150% · Sortino -6.99 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-924%-648%-372%-96%180%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)149.7%Ann. vol σ-871.4%Sharpe (ann)-699.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
12.92013.26813.61513.96314.31014.658t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:39:44 UTC
Snapshot age
4.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:39:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0384a6a3a9a364283744caf8451671b075655b4a9bdd8e3162144fb907b8b847 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,674HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.83HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.57K
bid $1.38K · ask $1.19K
Depth within 10bp
$7.17K
bid $3.45K · ask $3.72K
Depth within 50bp
$39.79K
bid $29.85K · ask $9.94K
Mid price
13.775500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.312
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.152
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trb/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K13.78063.74bp13.78203FILLED
BUY$10.00K13.801418.78bp13.848011FILLED
BUY$100.00K13.838345.61bp13.948020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K13.77103.27bp13.77101FILLED
SELL$10.00K13.755514.55bp13.74607FILLED
SELL$100.00K13.740725.30bp13.684020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-trb/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$13.0000–$14.0000★25$5.48K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trb/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.169 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.20K
real volume
Sell weight
$3.09K
real volume
Net delta
$890
sellers net
Imbalance
-16.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-trb/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.01% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z2.0h13.9440→13.80301.011%3
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z2.0h13.9800→13.84700.951%3
#32026-06-20 11:00:00Z0ms13.8580→13.77100.628%1

/api/asset/hl-trb/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
149.74%
σ per bar = 0.000653
Mean return (annualised)
-1304.73%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.71
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.49%
peak 14.09 → trough 13.45 over 467 bars

/api/asset/hl-trb/risk · same metrics, JSON