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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKY

SKY-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sky · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.02%
realized vol (ann.)
29.76%
max drawdown
0.78%
sharpe
-45.97
ulcer index
0.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2980.18
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.72%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1899.40
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sky/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.058
24h Δ · live
0.02%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SKY · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0580 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0574, 0.0586] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +0.19%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.05810.05860.05830.05800.05770.0574μ = 0.0580max 0.0586min 0.0574dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,390,652 · μ=95626.1 · σ=100963.4 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140102,384204,768307,152409,536μ = 95626409,53650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 409536 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.0s
$mark $
$0.0581
$mid $
$0.0581
◉prev-day close
$0.0581
Δ24h Δ %
+0.024%
$24h vol $
$131.56k
◐open interest $
$1.67M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0580 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0574, 0.0586] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +0.19%σ LOW 0.44%LAST 0.05810.05860.05830.05800.05770.0574μ = 0.0580max 0.0586min 0.0574dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0581 · 24h 0.02% · range $[0.0574, 0.0586]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0573, 0.0587] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=49%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.0581 vs OPEN 0.0582 (-0.12%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05810.05870.05840.05800.05770.0573μ close = 0.0580O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.32%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.32%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.057 C0.058 (-0.21%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.057 C0.058 (-0.21%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.29%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.29%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.59%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.59%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.50%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.50%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.10%)O0.058 H0.059 L0.058 C0.059 (+1.10%)-1.2%O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.24%)O0.059 H0.059 L0.058 C0.058 (-1.24%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.34%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.34%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.057 C0.057 (-0.52%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.057 C0.057 (-0.52%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.057 C0.058 (+0.73%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.057 C0.058 (+0.73%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.04%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.04%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.20%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.20%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.52%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.52%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.13%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.13%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.51%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.51%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.03%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.03%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.40%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.40%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.28%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.28%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.20%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (+0.20%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.13%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.13%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.08%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.08%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.17%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.01%)O0.058 H0.058 L0.058 C0.058 (-0.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,390,652 · μ=95626.1 · σ=100963.4 · CV=1.06BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140102,384204,768307,152409,536μ = 95626194,328 · 47.5% peak194,328 · 47.5% peak230,393 · 56.3% peak230,393 · 56.3% peak58,411 · 14.3% peak58,411 · 14.3% peak85,223 · 20.8% peak85,223 · 20.8% peak145,178 · 35.4% peak145,178 · 35.4% peak176,698 · 43.1% peak176,698 · 43.1% peak35,629 · 8.7% peak35,629 · 8.7% peak36,345 · 8.9% peak36,345 · 8.9% peak74,235 · 18.1% peak74,235 · 18.1% peak37,409 · 9.1% peak37,409 · 9.1% peak26,489 · 6.5% peak26,489 · 6.5% peak20,647 · 5.0% peak20,647 · 5.0% peak40,214 · 9.8% peak40,214 · 9.8% peak87,828 · 21.4% peak87,828 · 21.4% peak26,648 · 6.5% peak26,648 · 6.5% peak42,407 · 10.4% peak42,407 · 10.4% peak44,853 · 11.0% peak44,853 · 11.0% peak90,521 · 22.1% peak90,521 · 22.1% peak62,573 · 15.3% peak62,573 · 15.3% peak21,421 · 5.2% peak21,421 · 5.2% peak25,847 · 6.3% peak25,847 · 6.3% peak409,536409,536 · 100.0% peak409,536 · 100.0% peak81,216 · 19.8% peak81,216 · 19.8% peak327,604 · 80.0% peak327,604 · 80.0% peak8,999 · 2.2% peak8,999 · 2.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2390652 · peak 409536 · CV 1.06

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0045 · skew=-0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=0.44 (mesokurtic)54310 1-114.98bpbin -114.98bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -114.98bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-95.28bp-75.59bp 2-55.89bpbin -55.89bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -55.89bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-36.19bpbin -36.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -36.19bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-16.50bpbin -16.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -16.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 33.20bpbin 3.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 3.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 522.90bpbin 22.90bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 22.90bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 242.59bpbin 42.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 42.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 262.29bpbin 62.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 62.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak81.99bp 1101.68bpbin 101.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 101.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.14 · kurt=0.90 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0581
Mid price
$0.0581
24h change
+0.02%
Mark–mid spread
0.52 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0581

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0580$95% CI: [0.0579$, 0.0581$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.44%
med MEDIAN0.0581$Q₁ 0.0579$ · Q₃ 0.0582$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0574$Q₁ 0.0579$med 0.0581$Q₃ 0.0582$max 0.0586$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.360approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.499mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.87
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.58
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.008114%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.017
σᵣ STD / h0.481370%σ²ᵣ = 0.232×10⁻⁴ · CV = 59.33×
σ ANNUALISED45.05%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.481%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.58good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.76good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)33.46exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.15approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.42leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.12
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 33.46
EXPECTED EDGE+71.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.53%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.531%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.084%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.891%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.12%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.531%VaR₉₉−1.084%ES₉₅−0.891%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK5.86$
−2.12% drawdown over 3h
5.74$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.68× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.17% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.521 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0586
Bollinger MA
$0.0581
Bollinger lower
$0.0575

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.236within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.182lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.826strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.349significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.826
H = 0.826STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.236k=2-0.182k=3-0.045k=4-0.141k=5+0.0670+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$131.56k
Open interest (USD)
$1.67M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.08x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.501× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.751× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.875×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.12% · worst -1.25% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MILD BULLISH +0.19%BEST+1.12%16hWORST-1.25%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.19%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.57%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.19%+1.08%-1.06%-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.27% · 13h0.27% · 13h0.27%13h-0.53% · 14h-0.53% · 14h-0.53%14h0.43% · 15h0.43% · 15h0.43%15h1.12% · 16h1.12% · 16h1.12%16h★ BEST-1.25% · 17h-1.25% · 17h-1.25%17h▼ WORST-0.39% · 18h-0.39% · 18h-0.39%18h-0.51% · 19h-0.51% · 19h-0.51%19h0.71% · 20h0.71% · 20h0.71%20h0.13% · 21h0.13% · 21h0.13%21h0.22% · 22h0.22% · 22h0.22%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h-0.12% · 01h-0.12% · 01h-0.12%01h0.33% · 02h0.33% · 02h0.33%02h-0.20% · 03h-0.20% · 03h-0.20%03h-0.04% · 04h-0.04% · 04h-0.04%04h0.46% · 05h0.46% · 05h0.46%05h-0.28% · 06h-0.28% · 06h-0.28%06h0.23% · 07h0.23% · 07h0.23%07h-0.15% · 08h-0.15% · 08h-0.15%08h-0.03% · 09h-0.03% · 09h-0.03%09h-0.18% · 10h-0.18% · 10h-0.18%10h-0.02% · 11h-0.02% · 11h-0.02%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.57%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.12% · worst -1.25% · typical |Δ| 0.361%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.17%FINAL+0.17%MAX DD-2.13%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.08%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0017 · peak 1.0108 · range [0.9892, 1.0108]1.01080.9892break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0108UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.13% · moderate0%-2.13%▼ TROUGH -2.13%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.13%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.53%bar 4-5 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.13%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0017 (0.17%) · max DD -2.13% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=6.02 · σ=20.80PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.01 (-2.12σ vs μ)45.3322.660.00-22.66-45.33μ = 6.02-3.15-3.15-6.68-6.68-21.38-21.381.781.78-3.43-3.43-24.81-24.8122.5622.5624.5524.5545.3345.3337.5237.5219.5219.527.817.814.204.207.537.5325.7025.701.131.1311.1911.193.053.05-38.01-38.01v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.009 · range [-38.01, 45.33] · μ 6.021 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=45.3075 · σ=23.1008 · range [16.4967, 82.5867] · R²=0.844▼ FALLING -78.55%σ EXTREME 50.99%LAST 16.496782.586766.064249.541733.019216.4967μ = 45.3075max 82.5867min 16.4967dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 16.50% · range [16.50%, 82.59%] · μ 45.31% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.326 · σ=0.244MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.637 (-1.27σ vs μ)0.6990.3490.000-0.349-0.699μ = -0.326-0.388-0.388-0.237-0.237-0.149-0.149-0.149-0.149-0.274-0.2740.1720.1720.0020.002-0.455-0.455-0.056-0.056-0.180-0.180-0.278-0.278-0.405-0.405-0.151-0.151-0.574-0.574-0.602-0.602-0.590-0.590-0.699-0.699-0.544-0.544-0.637-0.637v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.637 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.1122
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3478
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6603
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9795
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0385
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3829
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0845
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2783
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2012
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.611 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.22e-5 · top T=2.67h (17.5%) · top-3 cover 48.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.7e-53.5e-52.3e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.39e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.39e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.31e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.31e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.66e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.66e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.28e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.28e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.41e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.41e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.66e-5 · 17.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.66e-5 · 17.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.30e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.30e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.87e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.87e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.16e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.16e-7 · 0.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 17.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.667e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.87× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.38× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.87×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.38×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.43×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.22×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 4.24400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 4.24
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.07%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.07%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.03×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 931% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 6.39σ ann 146% · Sortino 6.32 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%931.1%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)145.7%Ann. vol σ639.0%Sharpe (ann)632.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0540.0550.0570.0580.0600.061t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
4.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fa6515ce6da38a3b465d640192535e21ca7c1a7bdb065fa16675c5ec7ccd8737 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.40K
bid $3.32K · ask $2.08K
Depth within 10bp
$9.49K
bid $5.32K · ask $4.17K
Depth within 50bp
$22.85K
bid $11.09K · ask $11.75K
Mid price
0.058079
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.040
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.112
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sky/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0580973.20bp0.0581053FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05816915.62bp0.05828915FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05822725.58bp0.05837320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0580652.29bp0.0580573FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05800412.83bp0.05788914FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05795122.02bp0.05775420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sky/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.39M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sky/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.421 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$635.87K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.56M
real volume
Net delta
$924.58K
sellers net
Imbalance
-42.10%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
42.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sky/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 2.12% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 17:00:00Z2.0h0.058605→0.0573602.124%3
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z0ms0.058018→0.0577090.533%1

/api/asset/hl-sky/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
145.72%
σ per bar = 0.000636
Mean return (annualised)
931.07%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.59%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 1144 bars

/api/asset/hl-sky/risk · same metrics, JSON