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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SAGA

SAGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-saga · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.77%
realized vol (ann.)
63.73%
max drawdown
0.61%
sharpe
-40.86
ulcer index
0.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-7881.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-4889.89
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
615
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.77%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-saga/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
0.77%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SAGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0131 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0129, 0.0134] · R²=0.031▲ RISING +0.31%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.01320.01340.01330.01320.01310.0129μ = 0.0131max 0.0134min 0.0129dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,077,185 · μ=283087.4 · σ=265159.3 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150352,457704,9141,057,3721,409,829μ = 2830871,409,828.850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1409829 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$0.0131
$mid $
$0.0131
◉prev-day close
$0.013
Δ24h Δ %
+0.768%
$24h vol $
$89.40k
◐open interest $
$148.08k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0131 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0129, 0.0134] · R²=0.031▲ RISING +0.31%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.01320.01340.01330.01320.01310.0129μ = 0.0131max 0.0134min 0.0129dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0131 · 24h 0.77% · range $[0.0129, 0.0134]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0129, 0.0135] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=56%BEARISH -0.38%CLOSE 0.0132 vs OPEN 0.0132 (-0.38%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01320.01350.01330.01320.01300.0129μ close = 0.0131O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.69%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.69%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.36%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.36%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.85%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.85%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.14%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.14%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.77%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.77%)1.4%O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.45%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.82%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.82%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.14%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.14%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.85%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.85%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.31%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.31%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.08%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.08%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.31%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.31%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.92%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.92%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.53%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.53%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,077,185 · μ=283087.4 · σ=265159.3 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150352,457704,9141,057,3721,409,829μ = 283087297,529.8 · 21.1% peak297,529.8 · 21.1% peak203,018.2 · 14.4% peak203,018.2 · 14.4% peak54,906.6 · 3.9% peak54,906.6 · 3.9% peak137,614.6 · 9.8% peak137,614.6 · 9.8% peak166,320.8 · 11.8% peak166,320.8 · 11.8% peak385,303.6 · 27.3% peak385,303.6 · 27.3% peak360,246.6 · 25.6% peak360,246.6 · 25.6% peak463,710.2 · 32.9% peak463,710.2 · 32.9% peak199,284.3 · 14.1% peak199,284.3 · 14.1% peak265,058.8 · 18.8% peak265,058.8 · 18.8% peak385,497.4 · 27.3% peak385,497.4 · 27.3% peak90,870.1 · 6.4% peak90,870.1 · 6.4% peak139,769.5 · 9.9% peak139,769.5 · 9.9% peak323,116.1 · 22.9% peak323,116.1 · 22.9% peak253,226.3 · 18.0% peak253,226.3 · 18.0% peak111,997.6 · 7.9% peak111,997.6 · 7.9% peak157,147.9 · 11.1% peak157,147.9 · 11.1% peak374,398.8 · 26.6% peak374,398.8 · 26.6% peak239,266.2 · 17.0% peak239,266.2 · 17.0% peak205,476.5 · 14.6% peak205,476.5 · 14.6% peak28,015.3 · 2.0% peak28,015.3 · 2.0% peak320,373.6 · 22.7% peak320,373.6 · 22.7% peak436,763.7 · 31.0% peak436,763.7 · 31.0% peak1,409,828.81,409,828.8 · 100.0% peak1,409,828.8 · 100.0% peak68,443.5 · 4.9% peak68,443.5 · 4.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7077185 · peak 1409829 · CV 0.94

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0073 · skew=-0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.93 (mesokurtic)54310 3-117.67bpbin -117.67bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -117.67bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-93.57bpbin -93.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -93.57bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-69.46bpbin -69.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -69.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-45.36bpbin -45.36bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -45.36bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-21.26bpbin -21.26bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -21.26bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 22.85bpbin 2.85bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 2.85bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 126.95bpbin 26.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 26.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 551.05bpbin 51.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 51.05bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 375.16bpbin 75.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 75.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 199.26bpbin 99.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 99.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak123.36bp 1147.47bpbin 147.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 147.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.01 · kurt=-0.75 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0131
Mid price
$0.0131
24h change
+0.77%
Mark–mid spread
7.62 bps
Prev-day close
$0.013

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.12)
μ MEAN0.0131$95% CI: [0.0131$, 0.0132$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.92%
med MEDIAN0.0131$Q₁ 0.0130$ · Q₃ 0.0132$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0129$Q₁ 0.0130$med 0.0131$Q₃ 0.0132$max 0.0134$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.266approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.117platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.39
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.57
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.012694%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.017
σᵣ STD / h0.755572%σ²ᵣ = 0.571×10⁻⁴ · CV = 59.52×
σ ANNUALISED70.72%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.756%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.57good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.62good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)36.23exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.01approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.64mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 36.23
EXPECTED EDGE+111.20%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.20%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.204%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.281%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.262%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.07%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.204%VaR₉₉−1.281%ES₉₅−1.262%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK1.34$
−3.07% drawdown over 12h
1.29$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.17% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
52.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.499 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0134
Bollinger MA
$0.0132
Bollinger lower
$0.0129

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.140within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.019lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.005strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.855fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.005
H = 1.005STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.140k=2+0.019k=3-0.036k=4-0.118k=5-0.0290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$89.40k
Open interest (USD)
$148.08k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.60x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.223× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.112× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.556×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.63%MILD BULLISH +0.30%BEST+1.60%13hWORST-1.30%09hTYPICAL |Δ|0.63%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.69%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.21%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.30%+1.89%-1.23%0.61% · 08h0.61% · 08h0.61%08h-1.30% · 09h-1.30% · 09h-1.30%09h▼ WORST0.77% · 10h0.77% · 10h0.77%10h-1.23% · 11h-1.23% · 11h-1.23%11h0.77% · 12h0.77% · 12h0.77%12h1.60% · 13h1.60% · 13h1.60%13h★ BEST0.68% · 14h0.68% · 14h0.68%14h-0.68% · 15h-0.68% · 15h-0.68%15h0.23% · 16h0.23% · 16h0.23%16h0.45% · 17h0.45% · 17h0.45%17h-0.83% · 18h-0.83% · 18h-0.83%18h-0.23% · 19h-0.23% · 19h-0.23%19h-0.61% · 20h-0.61% · 20h-0.61%20h-1.07% · 21h-1.07% · 21h-1.07%21h0.54% · 22h0.54% · 22h0.54%22h-0.08% · 23h-0.08% · 23h-0.08%23h-0.23% · 00h-0.23% · 00h-0.23%00h-0.15% · 01h-0.15% · 01h-0.15%01h-0.46% · 02h-0.46% · 02h-0.46%02h0.46% · 03h0.46% · 03h0.46%03h0.99% · 04h0.99% · 04h0.99%04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h0.61% · 06h0.61% · 06h0.61%06h-0.53% · 07h-0.53% · 07h-0.53%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.21%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 1.60% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.628%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.24%FINAL+0.24%MAX DD-3.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.87%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0024 · peak 1.0187 · range [0.9872, 1.0187]1.01870.9872break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0187UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.09% · moderate0%-3.09%▼ TROUGH -3.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.09%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.76%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0024 (0.24%) · max DD -3.09% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-4.04 · σ=38.28MIXED EDGELAST 27.26 (+0.82σ vs μ)63.7931.900.00-31.90-63.79μ = -4.0415.9515.9516.7716.7728.1928.1920.6520.6563.7963.7925.0425.04-9.61-9.61-49.77-49.77-53.44-53.44-40.71-40.71-61.02-61.02-48.55-48.55-46.24-46.24-43.28-43.283.003.0015.4715.4717.8117.8141.8141.8127.2627.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 27.263 · range [-61.02, 63.79] · μ -4.044 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=65.5793 · σ=22.8848 · range [37.3699, 111.4739] · R²=0.676▼ FALLING -48.37%σ EXTREME 34.90%LAST 57.3192111.473992.947974.421955.895937.3699μ = 65.5793max 111.4739min 37.3699dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 57.32% · range [37.37%, 111.47%] · μ 65.58% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.107 · σ=0.204MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.254 (-0.72σ vs μ)0.3980.1990.000-0.199-0.398μ = -0.107-0.324-0.324-0.144-0.144-0.128-0.1280.0310.0310.2230.223-0.006-0.006-0.398-0.398-0.206-0.2060.0960.096-0.381-0.381-0.179-0.179-0.158-0.158-0.143-0.143-0.386-0.386-0.150-0.1500.2730.2730.1790.1790.0130.013-0.254-0.254v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.254 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4068
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.0435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9572
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0635
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2694
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8379
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1597
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4271
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4211
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.872 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.06e-5 · top T=2.00h (19.3%) · top-3 cover 44.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.0e-53.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.21e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.20e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.20e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.71e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.70e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.70e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.13e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.13e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.86e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.84e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.84e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.36e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.36e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 19.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 19.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.268e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4731 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.94× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.93× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.26%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.26%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.94×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.93×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.47×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.24×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.7×1.3×2.0×2.7×3.3×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.23× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.31400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.23× · bootstrap from 4730 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.31
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.06%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.09%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 5.57σ ann 601% · Sortino 3.04 · n 4730 · ⚠ capped (n=4730 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)601.0%Ann. vol σ557.3%Sharpe (ann)303.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.015t-4730t-3942t-3153t-2365t-1577t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:07 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:08 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ca12aa7b2509a711098cf78d20addb81619088ffe30bead8c36d5bab22f9b511 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,676HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.12HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$2.83K
bid $1.65K · ask $1.18K
Depth within 50bp
$23.48K
bid $11.12K · ask $12.35K
Mid price
0.013110
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
15.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.115
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.036
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-saga/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0131207.63bp0.0131201FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01314224.43bp0.0131706FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01322083.60bp0.01337020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0131007.63bp0.0131001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01307824.51bp0.0130605FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012958116.28bp0.01277020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-saga/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.08M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-saga/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.330 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.51M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.27M
real volume
Net delta
$2.24M
buyers net
Imbalance
32.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-saga/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.69% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z5.0h0.013360→0.0130002.695%6
#22026-06-19 09:00:00Z2.0h0.013190→0.0129601.744%3
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z0ms0.013060→0.0129500.842%1

/api/asset/hl-saga/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,731 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
600.99%
σ per bar = 0.002623
Mean return (annualised)
3349.37%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.57
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
12.40%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3952 bars

/api/asset/hl-saga/risk · same metrics, JSON