Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

S

S-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-s · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.17%
realized vol (ann.)
138.68%
max drawdown
2.91%
sharpe
-175.27
ulcer index
1.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-15058.74
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.61%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.63
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-9307.74
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.63
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
611
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.17%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-45.87%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 38%
  • 24h change -6.17%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 29.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-s/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.029
24h Δ · live
-6.17%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
S · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0308 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0291, 0.0320] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -6.56%σ NORMAL 2.38%LAST 0.02910.03200.03120.03050.02980.0291μ = 0.0308max 0.0320min 0.0291dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005236% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=17,217,298 · μ=688691.9 · σ=1113193.5 · CV=1.62BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200951,2891,902,5782,853,8663,805,155μ = 6886923,805,15550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3805155 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.0292
$mid $
$0.0291
◉prev-day close
$0.0312
Δ24h Δ %
-6.175%
$24h vol $
$518.48k
◐open interest $
$704.37k
%funding (1h)
-0.005236%
%funding (yr)
-45.87%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0308 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0291, 0.0320] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -6.56%σ NORMAL 2.38%LAST 0.02910.03200.03120.03050.02980.0291μ = 0.0308max 0.0320min 0.0291dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0292 · 24h -6.17% · range $[0.0291, 0.0320]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0286, 0.0321] · σ=0.0007 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=55%BEARISH -7.44%CLOSE 0.0291 vs OPEN 0.0315 (-7.44%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02910.03210.03120.03040.02950.0286μ close = 0.0308O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.93%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.93%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.18%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.18%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.79%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.79%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.26%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.26%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.08%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.08%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.90%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.90%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.94%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+0.94%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.47%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.47%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.20%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.20%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.84%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.84%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+1.58%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (+1.58%)-3.1%O0.032 H0.032 L0.030 C0.031 (-3.14%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.030 C0.031 (-3.14%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (+1.31%)O0.031 H0.032 L0.031 C0.031 (+1.31%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-1.90%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-1.90%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.57%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.57%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.19%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.19%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.18%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.18%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-2.16%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-2.16%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (-1.23%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (-1.23%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (+1.28%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (+1.28%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.66%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.66%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.82%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.82%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-2.67%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-2.67%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=17,217,298 · μ=688691.9 · σ=1113193.5 · CV=1.62BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=200951,2891,902,5782,853,8663,805,155μ = 688692224,749 · 5.9% peak224,749 · 5.9% peak77,418 · 2.0% peak77,418 · 2.0% peak84,344 · 2.2% peak84,344 · 2.2% peak62,311 · 1.6% peak62,311 · 1.6% peak256,963 · 6.8% peak256,963 · 6.8% peak234,968 · 6.2% peak234,968 · 6.2% peak170,514 · 4.5% peak170,514 · 4.5% peak143,558 · 3.8% peak143,558 · 3.8% peak73,190 · 1.9% peak73,190 · 1.9% peak50,165 · 1.3% peak50,165 · 1.3% peak237,589 · 6.2% peak237,589 · 6.2% peak2,899,533 · 76.2% peak2,899,533 · 76.2% peak386,213 · 10.1% peak386,213 · 10.1% peak1,773,957 · 46.6% peak1,773,957 · 46.6% peak84,893 · 2.2% peak84,893 · 2.2% peak87,898 · 2.3% peak87,898 · 2.3% peak57,526 · 1.5% peak57,526 · 1.5% peak436,075 · 11.5% peak436,075 · 11.5% peak548,622 · 14.4% peak548,622 · 14.4% peak3,805,1553,805,155 · 100.0% peak3,805,155 · 100.0% peak552,387 · 14.5% peak552,387 · 14.5% peak743,002 · 19.5% peak743,002 · 19.5% peak486,606 · 12.8% peak486,606 · 12.8% peak64,701 · 1.7% peak64,701 · 1.7% peak3,674,961 · 96.6% peak3,674,961 · 96.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 17217298 · peak 3805155 · CV 1.62

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0026 · σ=0.0123 · skew=-0.56 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.40 (mesokurtic)54310 1-300.35bpbin -300.35bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -300.35bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-260.72bpbin -260.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -260.72bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-221.08bpbin -221.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -221.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-181.44bpbin -181.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -181.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-141.81bpbin -141.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -141.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-102.17bp 5-62.53bpbin -62.53bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -62.53bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3-22.90bpbin -22.90bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -22.90bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 416.74bpbin 16.74bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 16.74bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 156.38bpbin 56.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 56.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 296.01bpbin 96.01bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 96.01bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4135.65bpbin 135.65bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 135.65bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.60 · kurt=-0.24 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0292
Mid price
$0.0291
24h change
-6.17%
Mark–mid spread
39.68 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0312

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0308$95% CI: [0.0305$, 0.0311$]
σ STD DEV0.0007$σ² = 0.005×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.38%
med MEDIAN0.0310$Q₁ 0.0306$ · Q₃ 0.0313$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0028$ · IQR 0.0007$ (1.349σ→0.0010$)
min 0.0291$Q₁ 0.0306$med 0.0310$Q₃ 0.0313$max 0.0320$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.476approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.570mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.37
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.88
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-20.80
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.282822%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.222
σᵣ STD / h1.272914%σ²ᵣ = 1.620×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.50×
σ ANNUALISED119.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.273%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-20.80negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.52downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.64left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.00mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2477.52%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.58%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.582%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.077%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.931%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN8.89%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.582%VaR₉₉−3.077%ES₉₅−2.931%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK3.20$
−8.89% drawdown over 14h
2.91$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +9.76% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.004 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0324
Bollinger MA
$0.0307
Bollinger lower
$0.0291

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.212within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.043lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.987strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.895significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.987
H = 0.987STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.212k=2+0.043k=3-0.193k=4+0.041k=5+0.0790+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$518.48k
Open interest (USD)
$704.37k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.74x
1h funding
-0.005236%
Funding (annualised)
-45.87%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.55% · worst -3.20% · typical |Δ| 0.98%MILD BEARISH -6.79%BEST+1.55%17hWORST-3.20%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.98%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.79%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.69% · Σ -5.56%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.77%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -3.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.79%+2.52%-6.79%0.17% · 08h0.17% · 08h0.17%08h-0.61% · 09h-0.61% · 09h-0.61%09h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h0.97% · 12h0.97% · 12h0.97%12h1.32% · 13h1.32% · 13h1.32%13h0.38% · 14h0.38% · 14h0.38%14h-0.35% · 15h-0.35% · 15h-0.35%15h-0.80% · 16h-0.80% · 16h-0.80%16h1.55% · 17h1.55% · 17h1.55%17h★ BEST-3.20% · 18h-3.20% · 18h-3.20%18h▼ WORST1.41% · 19h1.41% · 19h1.41%19h-1.90% · 20h-1.90% · 20h-1.90%20h-0.62% · 21h-0.62% · 21h-0.62%21h0.33% · 22h0.33% · 22h0.33%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.58% · 00h-0.58% · 00h-0.58%00h-0.10% · 01h-0.10% · 01h-0.10%01h-2.14% · 02h-2.14% · 02h-2.14%02h-1.27% · 03h-1.27% · 03h-1.27%03h1.22% · 04h1.22% · 04h1.22%04h0.79% · 05h0.79% · 05h0.79%05h-0.81% · 06h-0.81% · 06h-0.81%06h-2.66% · 07h-2.66% · 07h-2.66%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.77%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.55% · worst -3.20% · typical |Δ| 0.983%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.75%FINAL-6.75%MAX DD-9.04%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.52%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9325 · peak 1.0252 · range [0.9325, 1.0252]1.02520.9325break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0252UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.04% · significant0%-9.04%▼ TROUGH -9.04%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -9.04%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.15%bar 9-10 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.75%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.04%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9325 (-6.75%) · max DD -9.04% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-12.09 · σ=36.41UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -48.90 (-1.01σ vs μ)57.4628.730.00-28.73-57.46μ = -12.0937.6137.6142.3642.3652.4852.4830.4330.4350.9250.92-9.83-9.83-8.96-8.96-27.65-27.65-29.95-29.95-20.10-20.10-34.93-34.93-15.80-15.80-50.51-50.51-49.81-49.81-57.46-57.46-35.17-35.17-25.93-25.93-28.43-28.43-48.90-48.90v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -48.897 · range [-57.46, 52.48] · μ -12.086 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=116.5302 · σ=41.4545 · range [61.4548, 176.4589] · R²=0.057▲ RISING +115.61%σ EXTREME 35.57%LAST 145.4022176.4589147.7079118.956890.205861.4548μ = 116.5302max 176.4589min 61.4548dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 145.40% · range [61.45%, 176.46%] · μ 116.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-0.103 · σ=0.439CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.242 (+0.79σ vs μ)0.8130.4060.000-0.406-0.813μ = -0.1030.4400.4400.4210.4210.2530.2530.4070.4070.0310.031-0.361-0.361-0.720-0.720-0.813-0.813-0.806-0.806-0.737-0.737-0.500-0.500-0.346-0.3460.1490.149-0.066-0.0660.2320.232-0.099-0.0990.1890.1890.1280.1280.2420.242v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.242 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.6286
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4429
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6477
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7565
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2639
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9238
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7137
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0123
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2735
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.667 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.62e-4 · top T=2.18h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 44.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.5e-43.4e-42.3e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.06e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.27e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.58e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.58e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.54e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.54e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.92e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.75e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.75e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.73e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.73e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.59e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.59e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.54e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.54e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 8.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.945e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4727 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -4.66× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.18%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.18%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-4.66×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.02%0.01%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -20.23400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4726 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -20.23
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -18.92σ ann 406% · Sortino -15.04 · n 4726 · ⚠ capped (n=4726 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2271%-1719%-1167%-616%-64%488%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)406.3%Ann. vol σ-1892.1%Sharpe (ann)-1504.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0280.0290.0310.0320.0340.036t-4726t-3938t-3151t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:25 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:26 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b0e3249cead3407209e082a0b00725f332cffb33f221384691806a9c591a3107 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$4.26K
bid $50 · ask $4.21K
Depth within 5bp
$4.26K
bid $50 · ask $4.21K
Depth within 10bp
$7.65K
bid $2.45K · ask $5.21K
Depth within 50bp
$33.57K
bid $16.75K · ask $16.82K
Mid price
0.029118
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.062
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.406
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-s/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0291200.52bp0.0291201FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02914910.64bp0.0291806FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02921031.35bp0.02934320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0290948.35bp0.0290932FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02907116.36bp0.0290558FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02900538.88bp0.02893420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.236e-5
-0.00524% / hr
Annualised APR
-45.898%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
8.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
8.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE45.898%8.0d79.6d
SHORTPAY-45.898%8.0d79.6d

/api/asset/hl-s/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$17.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-s/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.661 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.88M
real volume
Sell weight
$14.11M
real volume
Net delta
$11.23M
sellers net
Imbalance
-66.08%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
66.1%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-s/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 4.22% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.031958→0.0306094.221%5
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z4.0h0.030781→0.0295454.015%5
#32026-06-20 06:00:00Z1.0h0.030144→0.0291173.407%2

/api/asset/hl-s/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,727 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
406.34%
σ per bar = 0.001773
Mean return (annualised)
-7688.28%
μ per bar = -0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.73%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 4596 bars

/api/asset/hl-s/risk · same metrics, JSON