Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

REZ

REZ-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rez · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.35%
realized vol (ann.)
68.67%
max drawdown
0.34%
sharpe
199.27
ulcer index
0.09%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
150299.45
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.51
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
60231.95
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.51
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
611
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.35%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-59.18%
signalLONGconfidence 48%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +4.35%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 33.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-rez/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
4.35%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
REZ · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0031, 0.0032] · R²=0.769▲ RISING +4.53%σ NORMAL 1.26%LAST 0.00320.00320.00320.00320.00310.0031μ = 0.0032max 0.0032min 0.0031dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.006756% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=25,216,863 · μ=1008674.5 · σ=481441.6 · CV=0.48STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130575,1461,150,2931,725,4392,300,585μ = 10086752,300,58550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2300585 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0032
$mid $
$0.0032
◉prev-day close
$0.0031
Δ24h Δ %
+4.355%
$24h vol $
$76.68k
◐open interest $
$598.12k
%funding (1h)
-0.006756%
%funding (yr)
-59.18%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0032 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0031, 0.0032] · R²=0.769▲ RISING +4.53%σ NORMAL 1.26%LAST 0.00320.00320.00320.00320.00310.0031μ = 0.0032max 0.0032min 0.0031dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0032 · 24h 4.35% · range $[0.0031, 0.0032]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0031, 0.0032] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=55%BULLISH +3.95%CLOSE 0.0032 vs OPEN 0.0031 (+3.95%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00320.00320.00320.00320.00310.0031μ close = 0.0032O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.32%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.32%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.90%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.90%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.94%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.94%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.52%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.52%)1.5%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.46%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.13%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.28%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.28%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.69%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.69%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.73%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.73%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.35%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.35%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.45%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.45%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.83%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.83%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.60%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.60%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+1.08%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.09%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.09%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.09%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.09%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.22%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.38%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.72%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.72%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=25,216,863 · μ=1008674.5 · σ=481441.6 · CV=0.48STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130575,1461,150,2931,725,4392,300,585μ = 1008675939,903 · 40.9% peak939,903 · 40.9% peak577,161 · 25.1% peak577,161 · 25.1% peak1,184,546 · 51.5% peak1,184,546 · 51.5% peak505,725 · 22.0% peak505,725 · 22.0% peak494,224 · 21.5% peak494,224 · 21.5% peak1,583,965 · 68.9% peak1,583,965 · 68.9% peak868,908 · 37.8% peak868,908 · 37.8% peak545,557 · 23.7% peak545,557 · 23.7% peak739,920 · 32.2% peak739,920 · 32.2% peak1,636,615 · 71.1% peak1,636,615 · 71.1% peak836,284 · 36.4% peak836,284 · 36.4% peak1,289,417 · 56.0% peak1,289,417 · 56.0% peak1,442,320 · 62.7% peak1,442,320 · 62.7% peak468,048 · 20.3% peak468,048 · 20.3% peak986,819 · 42.9% peak986,819 · 42.9% peak773,440 · 33.6% peak773,440 · 33.6% peak578,951 · 25.2% peak578,951 · 25.2% peak1,976,979 · 85.9% peak1,976,979 · 85.9% peak2,300,5852,300,585 · 100.0% peak2,300,585 · 100.0% peak1,272,525 · 55.3% peak1,272,525 · 55.3% peak761,321 · 33.1% peak761,321 · 33.1% peak727,746 · 31.6% peak727,746 · 31.6% peak1,164,805 · 50.6% peak1,164,805 · 50.6% peak874,651 · 38.0% peak874,651 · 38.0% peak686,448 · 29.8% peak686,448 · 29.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 25216863 · peak 2300585 · CV 0.48

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0019 · σ=0.0064 · skew=-0.16 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.02 (platykurtic (thin tails))54310 4-82.49bpbin -82.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -82.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak-63.02bp 2-43.56bpbin -43.56bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -43.56bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-24.09bpbin -24.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -24.09bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-4.62bpbin -4.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -4.62bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak14.85bp 534.32bpbin 34.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 34.32bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 253.78bpbin 53.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 53.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 473.25bpbin 73.25bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 73.25bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak92.72bp 2112.19bpbin 112.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 112.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1131.66bpbin 131.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 131.66bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.23 · kurt=-0.91 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0032
Mid price
$0.0032
24h change
+4.35%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0031

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0032$95% CI: [0.0031$, 0.0032$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.26%
med MEDIAN0.0032$Q₁ 0.0031$ · Q₃ 0.0032$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0031$Q₁ 0.0031$med 0.0032$Q₃ 0.0032$max 0.0032$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.134approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.892mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.96
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=25.66
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.184454%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.274
σᵣ STD / h0.672716%σ²ᵣ = 0.453×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.65×
σ ANNUALISED62.96%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.673%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)25.66excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)27.22strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.24approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.84mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1615.82%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.91%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.907%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.920%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.918%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.88%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.907%VaR₉₉−0.920%ES₉₅−0.918%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK0.32$
−1.88% drawdown over 4h
0.31$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.92% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
67.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
1.025 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0032
Bollinger MA
$0.0032
Bollinger lower
$0.0031

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.350within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.087lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.939strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.750significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.939
H = 0.939STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.350k=2+0.087k=3-0.007k=4-0.205k=5+0.0700+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$76.68k
Open interest (USD)
$598.12k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
-0.006756%
Funding (annualised)
-59.18%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.41% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.60%MILD BULLISH +4.43%BEST+1.41%12hWORST-0.92%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.60%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.43%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +1.97%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.26% · Σ +2.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.41%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.43%+4.43%-0.26%0.55% · 08h0.55% · 08h0.55%08h-0.81% · 09h-0.81% · 09h-0.81%09h1.03% · 10h1.03% · 10h1.03%10h-0.87% · 11h-0.87% · 11h-0.87%11h1.41% · 12h1.41% · 12h1.41%12h★ BEST0.41% · 13h0.41% · 13h0.41%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.32% · 15h0.32% · 15h0.32%15h0.35% · 16h0.35% · 16h0.35%16h0.69% · 17h0.69% · 17h0.69%17h-0.91% · 18h-0.91% · 18h-0.91%18h-0.48% · 19h-0.48% · 19h-0.48%19h0.41% · 20h0.41% · 20h0.41%20h-0.92% · 21h-0.92% · 21h-0.92%21h▼ WORST0.51% · 22h0.51% · 22h0.51%22h0.76% · 23h0.76% · 23h0.76%23h-0.32% · 00h-0.32% · 00h-0.32%00h1.10% · 01h1.10% · 01h1.10%01h0.41% · 02h0.41% · 02h0.41%02h-0.03% · 03h-0.03% · 03h-0.03%03h-0.41% · 04h-0.41% · 04h-0.41%04h-0.19% · 05h-0.19% · 05h-0.19%05h0.69% · 06h0.69% · 06h0.69%06h0.71% · 07h0.71% · 07h0.71%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.05%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 1.41% · worst -0.92% · typical |Δ| 0.595%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +4.47% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+4.47%MAX DD-1.89%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+4.47%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0447 · peak 1.0447 · range [0.9974, 1.0447]1.04470.9974break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0447UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.89% · moderate0%-1.89%▼ TROUGH -1.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.89%bar 12-18 · 7 bars · recovered#2 -0.87%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.81%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.89%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0447 (4.47%) · max DD -1.89% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=25.77 · σ=30.03PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 39.04 (+0.44σ vs μ)102.2651.130.00-51.13-102.26μ = 25.7728.6428.6419.6419.6444.9444.9434.3934.39102.26102.2623.7823.78-0.84-0.849.619.61-18.73-18.73-14.69-14.69-12.99-12.99-0.75-0.7532.3732.3732.2532.2573.4573.4538.9438.9415.4915.4942.7442.7439.0439.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 39.041 · range [-18.73, 102.26] · μ 25.766 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.9436 · σ=12.7464 · range [44.2160, 88.2459] · R²=0.344▼ FALLING -49.89%σ EXTREME 20.25%LAST 44.216088.245977.238466.231055.223544.2160μ = 62.9436max 88.2459min 44.2160dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 44.22% · range [44.22%, 88.25%] · μ 62.94% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.251 · σ=0.311MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.347 (+1.92σ vs μ)0.7030.3510.000-0.351-0.703μ = -0.251-0.703-0.703-0.636-0.636-0.642-0.642-0.438-0.4380.0690.069-0.313-0.3130.0880.088-0.013-0.013-0.232-0.232-0.540-0.540-0.100-0.100-0.410-0.410-0.406-0.406-0.295-0.295-0.541-0.541-0.270-0.2700.0400.0400.2330.2330.3470.347v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.347 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9379
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0200
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4141
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1632
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6894
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6394
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7883
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3824
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1668
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.579 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.50e-5 · top T=2.40h (19.2%) · top-3 cover 45.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.8e-55.2e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.18e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.94e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.03e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.68e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.68e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.86e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.86e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.86e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.86e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.61e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.61e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.66e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.66e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.04e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.04e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.67e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.67e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.80e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.80e-5 · 7.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 19.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.394e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4727 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.28× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.29× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.22%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.22%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.28×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.29×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.64×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.32×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.8×1.7×2.5×3.4×4.2×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.32× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 10.42400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.32× · bootstrap from 4726 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 10.42
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.07%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.09%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 6.43σ ann 499% · Sortino 4.17 · n 4726 · ⚠ capped (n=4726 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)498.8%Ann. vol σ642.5%Sharpe (ann)417.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0040.004t-4726t-3938t-3151t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:25 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7d6020164abb94203658f2f72dd53d981d3c39a0ce4b63c1e64bd6c1e471bcbc · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$697
bid $679 · ask $18
Depth within 10bp
$2.20K
bid $1.86K · ask $342
Depth within 50bp
$22.04K
bid $13.50K · ask $8.53K
Mid price
0.003235
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.223
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.001
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rez/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00323911.20bp0.0032393FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00324531.79bp0.00325314FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00325251.40bp0.00327820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0032344.08bp0.0032332FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00322821.77bp0.0032258FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00321754.42bp0.00318620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-6.756e-5
-0.00676% / hr
Annualised APR
-59.224%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
6.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
6.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE59.224%6.2d61.7d
SHORTPAY-59.224%6.2d61.7d

/api/asset/hl-rez/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$25.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rez/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.174 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.25M
real volume
Sell weight
$10.03M
real volume
Net delta
$4.22M
buyers net
Imbalance
17.39%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-rez/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.88% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h0.003190→0.0031301.881%4
#22026-06-19 11:00:00Z0ms0.003117→0.0030900.866%1
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z0ms0.003110→0.0030850.804%1

/api/asset/hl-rez/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,727 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
498.79%
σ per bar = 0.002177
Mean return (annualised)
3204.99%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.43
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.78%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3946 bars

/api/asset/hl-rez/risk · same metrics, JSON