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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RESOLV

RESOLV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-resolv · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.23%
realized vol (ann.)
59.56%
max drawdown
1.35%
sharpe
-172.40
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-15531.63
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.31%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.68
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-7841.74
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.68
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
623
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.23%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-45.44%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -3.23%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 36.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-resolv/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.014
24h Δ · live
-3.23%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
RESOLV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0147 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0143, 0.0151] · R²=0.649▼ FALLING -2.84%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.01430.01510.01490.01470.01450.0143μ = 0.0147max 0.0151min 0.0143dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.5%Short fee 50.5%SHORT FEE50.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005187% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,548,911 · μ=581956.4 · σ=290405.8 · CV=0.50RISING +48% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140298,638597,276895,9141,194,552μ = 5819561,194,55250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1194552 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$0.0143
$mid $
$0.0143
◉prev-day close
$0.0148
Δ24h Δ %
-3.234%
$24h vol $
$209.25k
◐open interest $
$297.07k
%funding (1h)
-0.005187%
%funding (yr)
-45.44%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0147 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0143, 0.0151] · R²=0.649▼ FALLING -2.84%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.01430.01510.01490.01470.01450.0143μ = 0.0147max 0.0151min 0.0143dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0143 · 24h -3.23% · range $[0.0143, 0.0151]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0143, 0.0153] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -3.44%CLOSE 0.0143 vs OPEN 0.0148 (-3.44%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01430.01530.01510.01480.01450.0143μ close = 0.0147O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.62%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.62%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.49%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.49%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.36%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.36%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.20%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.20%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.81%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.81%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+1.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+1.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.75%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.75%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.32%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.32%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.31%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.31%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.18%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-1.18%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.19%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.63%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.63%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.78%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.78%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.54%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.54%)-1.9%O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (-1.94%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (-1.94%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.20%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.20%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.08%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (+0.08%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.44%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.44%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.01%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.015 C0.015 (-0.01%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.30%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.30%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.41%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.41%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.03%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (+0.03%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.23%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.23%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.31%)O0.014 H0.015 L0.014 C0.015 (+0.31%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.66%)O0.015 H0.015 L0.014 C0.014 (-1.66%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,548,911 · μ=581956.4 · σ=290405.8 · CV=0.50RISING +48% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140298,638597,276895,9141,194,552μ = 581956328,369 · 27.5% peak328,369 · 27.5% peak768,435 · 64.3% peak768,435 · 64.3% peak409,256 · 34.3% peak409,256 · 34.3% peak95,913 · 8.0% peak95,913 · 8.0% peak284,915 · 23.9% peak284,915 · 23.9% peak348,778 · 29.2% peak348,778 · 29.2% peak280,839 · 23.5% peak280,839 · 23.5% peak238,925 · 20.0% peak238,925 · 20.0% peak119,009 · 10.0% peak119,009 · 10.0% peak828,315 · 69.3% peak828,315 · 69.3% peak1,194,5521,194,552 · 100.0% peak1,194,552 · 100.0% peak969,297 · 81.1% peak969,297 · 81.1% peak620,978 · 52.0% peak620,978 · 52.0% peak864,847 · 72.4% peak864,847 · 72.4% peak473,495 · 39.6% peak473,495 · 39.6% peak870,854 · 72.9% peak870,854 · 72.9% peak499,431 · 41.8% peak499,431 · 41.8% peak932,475 · 78.1% peak932,475 · 78.1% peak760,961 · 63.7% peak760,961 · 63.7% peak483,815 · 40.5% peak483,815 · 40.5% peak640,226 · 53.6% peak640,226 · 53.6% peak483,063 · 40.4% peak483,063 · 40.4% peak958,849 · 80.3% peak958,849 · 80.3% peak576,671 · 48.3% peak576,671 · 48.3% peak516,643 · 43.2% peak516,643 · 43.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14548911 · peak 1194552 · CV 0.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0080 · skew=-0.64 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.35 (mesokurtic)54310 2-181.75bpbin -181.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -181.75bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-154.11bp 2-126.47bpbin -126.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -126.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-98.84bp 3-71.20bpbin -71.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -71.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-43.56bpbin -43.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -43.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-15.92bpbin -15.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -15.92bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 511.72bpbin 11.72bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 11.72bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 539.36bpbin 39.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 39.36bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 267.00bpbin 67.00bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 67.00bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 194.64bpbin 94.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 94.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1122.27bpbin 122.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 122.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.52 · kurt=-0.31 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0143
Mid price
$0.0143
24h change
-3.23%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0148

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.20)
μ MEAN0.0147$95% CI: [0.0146$, 0.0148$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.58%
med MEDIAN0.0147$Q₁ 0.0145$ · Q₃ 0.0149$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0143$Q₁ 0.0145$med 0.0147$Q₃ 0.0149$max 0.0151$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.009approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.201platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.67
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-13.44
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.119906%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.144
σᵣ STD / h0.835190%σ²ᵣ = 0.698×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.97×
σ ANNUALISED78.17%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.835%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-13.44negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.40downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.56left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.08mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.77
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1050.38%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.62%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.619%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.892%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.818%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.65%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.619%VaR₉₉−1.892%ES₉₅−1.818%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK1.51$
−5.65% drawdown over 18h
1.43$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.99% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.085 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0152
Bollinger MA
$0.0147
Bollinger lower
$0.0142

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.274within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.063lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.981strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.527significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.981
H = 0.981STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.274k=2+0.063k=3+0.080k=4-0.233k=5 ★+0.5480+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.53)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.53)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$209.25k
Open interest (USD)
$297.07k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.70x
1h funding
-0.005187%
Funding (annualised)
-45.44%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.36% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.65%MILD BEARISH -2.88%BEST+1.36%12hWORST-1.96%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.65%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.88%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.51%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.39% · Σ -3.09%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.88%+2.94%-2.88%1.04% · 08h1.04% · 08h1.04%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h0.17% · 10h0.17% · 10h0.17%10h-0.75% · 11h-0.75% · 11h-0.75%11h1.36% · 12h1.36% · 12h1.36%12h★ BEST0.80% · 13h0.80% · 13h0.80%13h-0.56% · 14h-0.56% · 14h-0.56%14h0.12% · 15h0.12% · 15h0.12%15h-1.28% · 16h-1.28% · 16h-1.28%16h0.31% · 17h0.31% · 17h0.31%17h-0.65% · 18h-0.65% · 18h-0.65%18h-0.72% · 19h-0.72% · 19h-0.72%19h0.63% · 20h0.63% · 20h0.63%20h-1.96% · 21h-1.96% · 21h-1.96%21h▼ WORST0.34% · 22h0.34% · 22h0.34%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.28% · 00h-0.28% · 00h-0.28%00h0.07% · 01h0.07% · 01h0.07%01h-1.21% · 02h-1.21% · 02h-1.21%02h0.44% · 03h0.44% · 03h0.44%03h0.11% · 04h0.11% · 04h0.11%04h-0.13% · 05h-0.13% · 05h-0.13%05h0.39% · 06h0.39% · 06h0.39%06h-1.68% · 07h-1.68% · 07h-1.68%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.51%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.36% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.647%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.92%)FINAL-2.92%MAX DD-5.71%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.96%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9708 · peak 1.0296 · range [0.9708, 1.0296]1.02960.9708break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0296UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.71% · significant0%-5.71%▼ TROUGH -5.71%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.71%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.75%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.71%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9708 (-2.92%) · max DD -5.71% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-17.71 · σ=31.78UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -36.62 (-0.60σ vs μ)73.9736.990.00-36.99-73.97μ = -17.7161.0861.0826.2526.2522.4322.43-4.61-4.6112.5712.57-25.76-25.76-73.97-73.97-33.88-33.88-59.15-59.15-32.86-32.86-34.57-34.57-28.95-28.95-16.27-16.27-47.68-47.68-10.68-10.68-17.28-17.28-27.81-27.81-8.67-8.67-36.62-36.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -36.618 · range [-73.97, 61.08] · μ -17.707 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=75.3840 · σ=14.3979 · range [53.0649, 93.4910] · R²=0.063▲ RISING +18.21%σ EXTREME 19.10%LAST 83.152093.491083.384573.278063.171553.0649μ = 75.3840max 93.4910min 53.0649dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 83.15% · range [53.06%, 93.49%] · μ 75.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.395 · σ=0.205MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.266 (+0.63σ vs μ)0.7340.3670.000-0.367-0.734μ = -0.395-0.158-0.158-0.266-0.266-0.240-0.240-0.102-0.1020.0300.030-0.559-0.559-0.734-0.734-0.535-0.535-0.526-0.526-0.667-0.667-0.555-0.555-0.592-0.592-0.510-0.510-0.192-0.192-0.375-0.375-0.441-0.441-0.453-0.453-0.370-0.370-0.266-0.266v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.266 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2477
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5359
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
13.8929
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8759
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.2928
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7406
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0099
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4077
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.572 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.84e-5 · top T=2.40h (39.2%) · top-3 cover 65.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.2e-42.4e-41.6e-48.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.84e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.84e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.87e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.87e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.31e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.31e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.53e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.53e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.41e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.22e-4 · 39.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.22e-4 · 39.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.05e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.05e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.82e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.82e-5 · 4.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 39.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.213e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4739 bars · effective 5249102 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.004% per barparametric μ/σ² -7.82× · μ -0.004% · σ 0.23%
μ per barmean
-0.004%
σ per barvol
0.23%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-7.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.05%-0.01%0.02%0.06%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -36.74400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4738 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -36.74
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -40.42σ ann 517% · Sortino -28.38 · n 4738 · ⚠ capped (n=4738 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4850%-3756%-2662%-1568%-474%620%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)516.7%Ann. vol σ-4041.7%Sharpe (ann)-2837.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0140.0150.0160.0170.0180.020t-4738t-3948t-3159t-2369t-1579t-790t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:58:07 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:58:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5bf4d01f1738e6dd1a4dc3ae347a8a9ade388acdc2e6087955e77c685c9bd749 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,653HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$11.16K
bid $7.12K · ask $4.04K
Mid price
0.014309
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
27.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.184
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.388
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-resolv/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01434022.19bp0.0143483FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01438754.85bp0.01442514FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01442782.48bp0.01450220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01428417.43bp0.0142823FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01424146.98bp0.01415911FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.014133122.66bp0.01396420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.187e-5
-0.00519% / hr
Annualised APR
-45.471%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
8.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
8.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE45.471%8.0d80.3d
SHORTPAY-45.471%8.0d80.3d

/api/asset/hl-resolv/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.55M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-resolv/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.113 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.91M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.31M
real volume
Net delta
$1.61M
buyers net
Imbalance
11.29%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-resolv/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 4.01% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 16:00:00Z7.0h0.015139→0.0145324.010%8
#22026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.014525→0.0142831.666%1
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h0.014615→0.0144081.416%3

/api/asset/hl-resolv/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,739 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
516.71%
σ per bar = 0.002255
Mean return (annualised)
-20883.58%
μ per bar = -0.000040
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.08%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 4581 bars

/api/asset/hl-resolv/risk · same metrics, JSON