Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

POLYX

POLYX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-polyx · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.87%
realized vol (ann.)
43.32%
max drawdown
0.59%
sharpe
0.52
ulcer index
0.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
89.11
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
47.21
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
611
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.87%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-1.80%
signalLONGconfidence 45%suggested side: BUY
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 37.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-polyx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.038
24h Δ · live
0.87%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
POLYX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0382 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0379, 0.0386] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +0.70%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.03840.03860.03840.03830.03810.0379μ = 0.0382max 0.0386min 0.0379dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 40.2%Short fee 59.8%SHORT FEE59.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.972 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
40.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
59.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000206% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,664,811 · μ=66592.4 · σ=59528.6 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11077,590155,179232,769310,358μ = 66592310,35850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 310358 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.0s
$mark $
$0.0384
$mid $
$0.0384
◉prev-day close
$0.0381
Δ24h Δ %
+0.874%
$24h vol $
$62.35k
◐open interest $
$94.81k
%funding (1h)
-0.000206%
%funding (yr)
-1.80%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0382 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0379, 0.0386] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +0.70%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.03840.03860.03840.03830.03810.0379μ = 0.0382max 0.0386min 0.0379dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0384 · 24h 0.87% · range $[0.0379, 0.0386]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0379, 0.0387] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=59%BULLISH +0.66%CLOSE 0.0384 vs OPEN 0.0381 (+0.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03840.03870.03850.03830.03810.0379μ close = 0.0382O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.04%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.03%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.03%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.42%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.42%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.70%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.70%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.85%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.85%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.98%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.98%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.01%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.90%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.90%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.23%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.23%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.50%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.50%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.36%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.36%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)-1.0%O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.02%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.02%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.37%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.37%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.27%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.27%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.55%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.55%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.00%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.00%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.32%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.32%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.24%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.24%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.41%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.39%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.39%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.48%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.48%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.40%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.40%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,664,811 · μ=66592.4 · σ=59528.6 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11077,590155,179232,769310,358μ = 6659280,733 · 26.0% peak80,733 · 26.0% peak36,454 · 11.7% peak36,454 · 11.7% peak114,209 · 36.8% peak114,209 · 36.8% peak53,888 · 17.4% peak53,888 · 17.4% peak58,521 · 18.9% peak58,521 · 18.9% peak310,358310,358 · 100.0% peak310,358 · 100.0% peak2,119 · 0.7% peak2,119 · 0.7% peak78,649 · 25.3% peak78,649 · 25.3% peak32,004 · 10.3% peak32,004 · 10.3% peak51,176 · 16.5% peak51,176 · 16.5% peak72,209 · 23.3% peak72,209 · 23.3% peak65,979 · 21.3% peak65,979 · 21.3% peak39,432 · 12.7% peak39,432 · 12.7% peak71,952 · 23.2% peak71,952 · 23.2% peak114,826 · 37.0% peak114,826 · 37.0% peak47,239 · 15.2% peak47,239 · 15.2% peak45,601 · 14.7% peak45,601 · 14.7% peak30,247 · 9.7% peak30,247 · 9.7% peak131,024 · 42.2% peak131,024 · 42.2% peak46,731 · 15.1% peak46,731 · 15.1% peak34,063 · 11.0% peak34,063 · 11.0% peak34,135 · 11.0% peak34,135 · 11.0% peak44,651 · 14.4% peak44,651 · 14.4% peak4,283 · 1.4% peak4,283 · 1.4% peak64,328 · 20.7% peak64,328 · 20.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1664811 · peak 310358 · CV 0.89

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0049 · skew=-0.31 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.66 (mesokurtic)43210 2-95.49bpbin -95.49bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -95.49bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-78.82bp 1-62.14bpbin -62.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -62.14bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-45.47bpbin -45.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -45.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-28.79bpbin -28.79bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -28.79bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-12.12bpbin -12.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -12.12bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 24.55bpbin 4.55bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 4.55bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 421.23bpbin 21.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 21.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 437.90bpbin 37.90bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 37.90bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 154.57bpbin 54.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 54.57bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 271.25bpbin 71.25bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 71.25bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 187.92bpbin 87.92bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 87.92bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.31 · kurt=-0.64 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0384
Mid price
$0.0384
24h change
+0.87%
Mark–mid spread
0.78 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0381

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0382$95% CI: [0.0382$, 0.0383$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.41%
med MEDIAN0.0382$Q₁ 0.0381$ · Q₃ 0.0383$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0379$Q₁ 0.0381$med 0.0382$Q₃ 0.0383$max 0.0386$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.157approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.343mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.14
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=5.24
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.029202%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.056
σᵣ STD / h0.521552%σ²ᵣ = 0.272×10⁻⁴ · CV = 17.86×
σ ANNUALISED48.81%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.522%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)5.24excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)5.10strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.33approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.50mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+255.81%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.90%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.899%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.019%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.995%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.26%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.899%VaR₉₉−1.019%ES₉₅−0.995%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK3.84$
−1.26% drawdown over 6h
3.79$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.28% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.705 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0386
Bollinger MA
$0.0382
Bollinger lower
$0.0379

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.55 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.551negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.206lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.799strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.043fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.799
H = 0.799STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.551k=2+0.206k=3+0.001k=4-0.348k=5+0.3650+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.55 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$62.35k
Open interest (USD)
$94.81k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.66x
1h funding
-0.000206%
Funding (annualised)
-1.80%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.96% · worst -1.04% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BULLISH +0.70%BEST+0.96%12hWORST-1.04%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.24%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.80%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.34%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.70%+1.29%-0.47%0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h-0.31% · 09h-0.31% · 09h-0.31%09h0.69% · 10h0.69% · 10h0.69%10h-1.04% · 11h-1.04% · 11h-1.04%11h▼ WORST0.96% · 12h0.96% · 12h0.96%12h★ BEST-0.17% · 13h-0.17% · 13h-0.17%13h0.16% · 14h0.16% · 14h0.16%14h0.27% · 15h0.27% · 15h0.27%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.43% · 17h0.43% · 17h0.43%17h-0.35% · 18h-0.35% · 18h-0.35%18h-0.34% · 19h-0.34% · 19h-0.34%19h0.44% · 20h0.44% · 20h0.44%20h-0.95% · 21h-0.95% · 21h-0.95%21h0.66% · 22h0.66% · 22h0.66%22h0.27% · 23h0.27% · 23h0.27%23h-0.38% · 00h-0.38% · 00h-0.38%00h-0.03% · 01h-0.03% · 01h-0.03%01h-0.25% · 02h-0.25% · 02h-0.25%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h0.37% · 04h0.37% · 04h0.37%04h0.57% · 05h0.57% · 05h0.57%05h0.45% · 06h0.45% · 06h0.45%06h-0.59% · 07h-0.59% · 07h-0.59%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.80%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.96% · worst -1.04% · typical |Δ| 0.439%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.67%FINAL+0.67%MAX DD-1.27%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.27%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0067 · peak 1.0127 · range [0.9951, 1.0127]1.01270.9951break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0127UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.27% · moderate0%-1.27%▼ TROUGH -1.27%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.27%bar 10-22 · 13 bars · recovered#2 -1.04%bar 5-8 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.59%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.27%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0067 (0.67%) · max DD -1.27% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=4.63 · σ=21.23MIXED EDGELAST 22.66 (+0.85σ vs μ)60.3430.170.00-30.17-60.34μ = 4.637.937.936.376.3719.4619.46-7.05-7.0535.9935.99-6.40-6.40-13.02-13.02-1.50-1.50-36.03-36.03-2.81-2.81-7.13-7.13-7.92-7.920.000.00-19.36-19.3615.3415.344.454.4516.6416.6460.3460.3422.6622.66v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.663 · range [-36.03, 60.34] · μ 4.630 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=48.6252 · σ=13.4266 · range [27.4595, 67.9604] · R²=0.416▼ FALLING -37.79%σ EXTREME 27.61%LAST 42.276967.960457.835247.709937.584727.4595μ = 48.6252max 67.9604min 27.4595dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 42.28% · range [27.46%, 67.96%] · μ 48.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.381 · σ=0.396MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.042 (+1.07σ vs μ)0.8290.4150.000-0.415-0.829μ = -0.381-0.829-0.829-0.819-0.819-0.754-0.754-0.516-0.516-0.386-0.386-0.702-0.702-0.466-0.466-0.573-0.573-0.546-0.546-0.639-0.639-0.497-0.497-0.595-0.595-0.547-0.547-0.315-0.3150.1260.126-0.145-0.1450.3460.3460.5800.5800.0420.042v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.042 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6913
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
17.5841
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0037
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.7177
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0043
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1297
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0533
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.412 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.92e-5 · top T=2.40h (31.4%) · top-3 cover 70.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.2e-55.5e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.41e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.41e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.85e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.85e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.56e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.26e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.46e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.46e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.07e-5 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.07e-5 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 31.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 31.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.51e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.51e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.54e-5 · 21.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.54e-5 · 21.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 31.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.505e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4727 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.30× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.31× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.16%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.16%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.30×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.31×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.65×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.32×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.9×1.7×2.6×3.4×4.3×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.33× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.17400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.33× · bootstrap from 4726 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.17
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.05%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.08%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 4.81σ ann 367% · Sortino 3.67 · n 4726 · ⚠ capped (n=4726 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)367.3%Ann. vol σ480.7%Sharpe (ann)367.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0350.0370.0390.0410.0430.045t-4726t-3938t-3151t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
6.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ed54fdbeec105be64d3cce073d4136a0eb56e3674f0f7dc6fb0b436025229e08 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.12K
bid $1.33K · ask $791
Depth within 10bp
$5.19K
bid $2.72K · ask $2.46K
Depth within 50bp
$22.83K
bid $11.19K · ask $11.64K
Mid price
0.038434
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.142
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.300
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-polyx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0384504.16bp0.0384604FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03851019.86bp0.03862511FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03870770.94bp0.03907020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0384203.64bp0.0384201FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03836916.91bp0.0383047FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03810286.47bp0.03777820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.060e-6
-0.00021% / hr
Annualised APR
-1.806%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
202.3d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
202.3d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE1.806%202.3d5.54y
SHORTPAY-1.806%202.3d5.54y

/api/asset/hl-polyx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.66M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-polyx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.093 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$865.49K
real volume
Sell weight
$718.59K
real volume
Net delta
$146.89K
buyers net
Imbalance
9.27%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-polyx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 11:00:00Z0ms0.038339→0.0379431.033%1
#22026-06-19 21:00:00Z0ms0.038290→0.0379270.948%1
#32026-06-19 19:00:00Z0ms0.038386→0.0381220.688%1

/api/asset/hl-polyx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,727 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
367.31%
σ per bar = 0.001603
Mean return (annualised)
1765.64%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.81
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
12.16%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 3952 bars

/api/asset/hl-polyx/risk · same metrics, JSON