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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

POL

POL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pol · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.50%
realized vol (ann.)
84.84%
max drawdown
1.46%
sharpe
-116.07
ulcer index
1.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.95%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-9836.07
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.41%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.78
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-6966.92
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.78
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
611
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.50%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +6.50%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pol/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.083
24h Δ · live
6.50%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
POL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0798 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0772, 0.0830] · R²=0.910▲ RISING +6.53%σ NORMAL 2.22%LAST 0.08280.08300.08160.08010.07870.0772μ = 0.0798max 0.0830min 0.0772dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,828,363 · μ=393134.5 · σ=262314.6 · CV=0.67RISING +36% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140220,431440,861661,292881,722μ = 393135881,72250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 881722 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.1s
$mark $
$0.0828
$mid $
$0.0828
◉prev-day close
$0.0777
Δ24h Δ %
+6.495%
$24h vol $
$720.46k
◐open interest $
$2.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0798 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.0772, 0.0830] · R²=0.910▲ RISING +6.53%σ NORMAL 2.22%LAST 0.08280.08300.08160.08010.07870.0772μ = 0.0798max 0.0830min 0.0772dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0828 · 24h 6.50% · range $[0.0772, 0.0830]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0770, 0.0840] · σ=0.0018 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +6.23%CLOSE 0.0828 vs OPEN 0.0779 (+6.23%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.08280.08400.08220.08050.07870.0770μ close = 0.0798O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.28%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.28%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.22%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.078 C0.078 (+0.22%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.077 C0.077 (-0.86%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.077 C0.077 (-0.86%)O0.077 H0.078 L0.077 C0.078 (+0.46%)O0.077 H0.078 L0.077 C0.078 (+0.46%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.077 C0.077 (-0.17%)O0.078 H0.078 L0.077 C0.077 (-0.17%)O0.077 H0.078 L0.077 C0.078 (+0.25%)O0.077 H0.078 L0.077 C0.078 (+0.25%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+1.20%)O0.078 H0.079 L0.078 C0.079 (+1.20%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.38%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.078 C0.078 (-0.38%)2.5%O0.078 H0.080 L0.078 C0.080 (+2.50%)O0.078 H0.080 L0.078 C0.080 (+2.50%)O0.080 H0.081 L0.079 C0.079 (-1.17%)O0.080 H0.081 L0.079 C0.079 (-1.17%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.11%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.11%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.02%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.02%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.23%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (-0.23%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.47%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.47%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.07%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.07%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.080 (+1.08%)O0.079 H0.080 L0.079 C0.080 (+1.08%)O0.080 H0.081 L0.080 C0.081 (+0.96%)O0.080 H0.081 L0.080 C0.081 (+0.96%)O0.081 H0.083 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.73%)O0.081 H0.083 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.73%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.60%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.60%)O0.081 H0.081 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.081 H0.081 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.20%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.48%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.48%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.74%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.74%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.40%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.081 C0.082 (-0.40%)O0.082 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (+1.25%)O0.082 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (+1.25%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.27%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.27%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,828,363 · μ=393134.5 · σ=262314.6 · CV=0.67RISING +36% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140220,431440,861661,292881,722μ = 393135827,384 · 93.8% peak827,384 · 93.8% peak880,726 · 99.9% peak880,726 · 99.9% peak309,098 · 35.1% peak309,098 · 35.1% peak330,884 · 37.5% peak330,884 · 37.5% peak142,713 · 16.2% peak142,713 · 16.2% peak142,743 · 16.2% peak142,743 · 16.2% peak89,733 · 10.2% peak89,733 · 10.2% peak372,799 · 42.3% peak372,799 · 42.3% peak167,064 · 18.9% peak167,064 · 18.9% peak561,996 · 63.7% peak561,996 · 63.7% peak271,212 · 30.8% peak271,212 · 30.8% peak61,678 · 7.0% peak61,678 · 7.0% peak213,985 · 24.3% peak213,985 · 24.3% peak761,791 · 86.4% peak761,791 · 86.4% peak722,775 · 82.0% peak722,775 · 82.0% peak127,587 · 14.5% peak127,587 · 14.5% peak203,132 · 23.0% peak203,132 · 23.0% peak881,722881,722 · 100.0% peak881,722 · 100.0% peak621,516 · 70.5% peak621,516 · 70.5% peak241,666 · 27.4% peak241,666 · 27.4% peak248,662 · 28.2% peak248,662 · 28.2% peak344,703 · 39.1% peak344,703 · 39.1% peak449,987 · 51.0% peak449,987 · 51.0% peak608,300 · 69.0% peak608,300 · 69.0% peak244,507 · 27.7% peak244,507 · 27.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9828363 · peak 881722 · CV 0.67

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0078 · skew=0.60 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.29 (mesokurtic)65320 1-116.01bpbin -116.01bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -116.01bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-84.35bpbin -84.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -84.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-52.69bpbin -52.69bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -52.69bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-21.03bpbin -21.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -21.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 310.63bpbin 10.63bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 10.63bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 442.29bpbin 42.29bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 42.29bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 273.95bpbin 73.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 73.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2105.61bpbin 105.61bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 105.61bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2137.27bpbin 137.27bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 137.27bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak168.93bp200.59bp 1232.25bpbin 232.25bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 232.25bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.62 · kurt=0.93 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0828
Mid price
$0.0828
24h change
+6.50%
Mark–mid spread
0.72 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0777

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.31)
μ MEAN0.0798$95% CI: [0.0791$, 0.0805$]
σ STD DEV0.0018$σ² = 0.031×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.22%
med MEDIAN0.0794$Q₁ 0.0784$ · Q₃ 0.0812$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0058$ · IQR 0.0028$ (1.349σ→0.0024$)
min 0.0772$Q₁ 0.0784$med 0.0794$Q₃ 0.0812$max 0.0830$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.190approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.307platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.27
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=30.73
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.263612%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.328
σᵣ STD / h0.802829%σ²ᵣ = 0.645×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.05×
σ ANNUALISED75.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.803%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)30.73excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)43.70strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.66right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.45leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.42
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2309.24%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.83%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.827%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.215%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.094%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.57%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.827%VaR₉₉−1.215%ES₉₅−1.094%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK8.03$
−1.57% drawdown over 4h
7.91$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.47× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.59% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
73.0 · overbought
Bollinger %B
0.897 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0834
Bollinger MA
$0.0804
Bollinger lower
$0.0773

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.390within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.193lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.912strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+15.231significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.912
H = 0.912STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.390k=2+0.193k=3-0.123k=4-0.294k=5+0.1180+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.23)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.23)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$720.46k
Open interest (USD)
$2.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.33x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.48% · worst -1.32% · typical |Δ| 0.61%MILD BULLISH +6.33%BEST+2.48%15hWORST-1.32%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.61%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.33%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.26% · Σ +2.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.41% · Σ +3.31%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.91%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.33%+6.61%-0.64%0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h-0.87% · 09h-0.87% · 09h-0.87%09h0.53% · 10h0.53% · 10h0.53%10h-0.24% · 11h-0.24% · 11h-0.24%11h0.27% · 12h0.27% · 12h0.27%12h1.28% · 13h1.28% · 13h1.28%13h-0.38% · 14h-0.38% · 14h-0.38%14h2.48% · 15h2.48% · 15h2.48%15h★ BEST-1.32% · 16h-1.32% · 16h-1.32%16h▼ WORST-0.06% · 17h-0.06% · 17h-0.06%17h0.02% · 18h0.02% · 18h0.02%18h-0.22% · 19h-0.22% · 19h-0.22%19h0.43% · 20h0.43% · 20h0.43%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h1.04% · 22h1.04% · 22h1.04%22h0.97% · 23h0.97% · 23h0.97%23h0.74% · 00h0.74% · 00h0.74%00h-0.58% · 01h-0.58% · 01h-0.58%01h-0.12% · 02h-0.12% · 02h-0.12%02h0.52% · 03h0.52% · 03h0.52%03h0.61% · 04h0.61% · 04h0.61%04h-0.07% · 05h-0.07% · 05h-0.07%05h1.30% · 06h1.30% · 06h1.30%06h-0.28% · 07h-0.28% · 07h-0.28%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.31%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.48% · worst -1.32% · typical |Δ| 0.609%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +6.44% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+6.44%MAX DD-1.58%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.75%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0644 · peak 1.0675 · range [0.9936, 1.0675]1.06750.9936break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0675UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.58% · moderate0%-1.58%▼ TROUGH -1.58%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -1.58%bar 10-16 · 7 bars · recovered#2 -0.87%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.70%bar 19-21 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.58%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0644 (6.44%) · max DD -1.58% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +18 / −1 (95% positive) · μ=38.00 · σ=27.35PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 50.66 (+0.46σ vs μ)91.8245.910.00-45.91-91.82μ = 38.0025.9625.9612.2212.2257.4257.4224.3124.3126.5726.5723.5623.566.466.4616.5916.59-28.87-28.8742.5642.5667.8267.8291.8291.8266.3066.3049.2249.2261.6861.6856.5756.5732.6532.6538.4738.4750.6650.66v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 50.656 · range [-28.87, 91.82] · μ 37.998 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=76.3859 · σ=30.7498 · range [43.1742, 126.0358] · R²=0.356▼ FALLING -16.96%σ EXTREME 40.26%LAST 56.2172126.0358105.320484.605063.889643.1742μ = 76.3859max 126.0358min 43.1742dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 56.22% · range [43.17%, 126.04%] · μ 76.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.184 · σ=0.323MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.626 (-1.37σ vs μ)0.6410.3200.000-0.320-0.641μ = -0.184-0.185-0.185-0.339-0.339-0.402-0.402-0.641-0.641-0.583-0.583-0.552-0.552-0.527-0.527-0.381-0.381-0.001-0.001-0.127-0.1270.2450.2450.1580.158-0.030-0.0300.2460.2460.3320.3320.1680.168-0.193-0.193-0.066-0.066-0.626-0.626v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.626 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.8751
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1441
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.7909
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1165
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4439
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8991
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2536
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2100
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.619 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.18e-5 · top T=2.40h (28.6%) · top-3 cover 72.4%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.44e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.89e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.89e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.95e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.95e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.75e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.12e-4 · 28.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.12e-4 · 28.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.81e-4 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.81e-4 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.40e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.40e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 28.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.415e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4727 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.03× · g(f★) 0.005%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.58× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.20%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.20%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.03×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.02×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.51×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.15× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 18.16400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.15× · bootstrap from 4726 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.008
annualized 18.16
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.23%
VaR 95%5%
0.06%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.25%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.89×0.95×1.01×1.08×1.14×1.20×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 21.23σ ann 463% · Sortino 25.77 · n 4726 · ⚠ capped (n=4726 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%619%1237%1856%2474%3093%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)463.2%Ann. vol σ2122.9%Sharpe (ann)2577.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0690.0730.0780.0820.0870.091t-4726t-3938t-3151t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:25 UTC
Snapshot age
3.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:28 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d13918788b1d25f49cdf477ee92cb1eca70d19721dac196f8e0d9b55d799b46a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$10.54K
bid $5.88K · ask $4.66K
Depth within 10bp
$16.09K
bid $9.20K · ask $6.89K
Depth within 50bp
$44.89K
bid $21.88K · ask $23.01K
Mid price
0.082770
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.023
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.400
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pol/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0827882.17bp0.0828024FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0828287.01bp0.08290313FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.08291116.98bp0.08313220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0827601.27bp0.0827592FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0827235.80bp0.08264310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.08262417.71bp0.08245520PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-pol/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.83M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-pol/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.238 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.57M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.43M
real volume
Net delta
$2.14M
buyers net
Imbalance
23.80%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-pol/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.37% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 16:00:00Z2.0h0.080318→0.0792161.372%3
#22026-06-19 09:00:00Z0ms0.077885→0.0772100.867%1
#32026-06-20 01:00:00Z1.0h0.081656→0.0810820.703%2

/api/asset/hl-pol/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,727 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
463.18%
σ per bar = 0.002022
Mean return (annualised)
9832.76%
μ per bar = 0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.91%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.07 over 21 bars

/api/asset/hl-pol/risk · same metrics, JSON