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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PEOPLE

PEOPLE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-people · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.63%
realized vol (ann.)
44.19%
max drawdown
1.00%
sharpe
9.65
ulcer index
0.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
909.57
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
482.87
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.63%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-people/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
0.63%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
PEOPLE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0055, 0.0056] · R²=0.177▲ RISING +1.17%σ LOW 0.57%LAST 0.00550.00560.00560.00550.00550.0055μ = 0.0055max 0.0056min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=20,029,480 · μ=801179.2 · σ=604417.5 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130715,8181,431,6362,147,4532,863,271μ = 8011792,863,27150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2863271 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.9s
$mark $
$0.0056
$mid $
$0.0056
◉prev-day close
$0.0055
Δ24h Δ %
+0.635%
$24h vol $
$110.08k
◐open interest $
$84.85k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0055, 0.0056] · R²=0.177▲ RISING +1.17%σ LOW 0.57%LAST 0.00550.00560.00560.00550.00550.0055μ = 0.0055max 0.0056min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0056 · 24h 0.63% · range $[0.0055, 0.0056]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0054, 0.0056] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +0.80%CLOSE 0.0055 vs OPEN 0.0055 (+0.80%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00550.00560.00560.00550.00550.0054μ close = 0.0055O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.49%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.49%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.41%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.41%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.34%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.34%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.36%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.56%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.56%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.38%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (-0.38%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.83%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.83%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.76%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.76%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.15%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.15%)1.1%O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.12%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+1.12%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.90%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.90%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.90%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.005 C0.005 (-0.90%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.11%)O0.005 H0.005 L0.005 C0.005 (+0.11%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.005 H0.006 L0.005 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.56%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.56%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.67%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.67%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.27%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.27%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.29%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.29%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=20,029,480 · μ=801179.2 · σ=604417.5 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130715,8181,431,6362,147,4532,863,271μ = 801179551,358 · 19.3% peak551,358 · 19.3% peak849,916 · 29.7% peak849,916 · 29.7% peak525,866 · 18.4% peak525,866 · 18.4% peak390,258 · 13.6% peak390,258 · 13.6% peak553,938 · 19.3% peak553,938 · 19.3% peak2,863,2712,863,271 · 100.0% peak2,863,271 · 100.0% peak1,492,387 · 52.1% peak1,492,387 · 52.1% peak779,860 · 27.2% peak779,860 · 27.2% peak523,851 · 18.3% peak523,851 · 18.3% peak527,428 · 18.4% peak527,428 · 18.4% peak437,282 · 15.3% peak437,282 · 15.3% peak448,851 · 15.7% peak448,851 · 15.7% peak370,987 · 13.0% peak370,987 · 13.0% peak1,190,972 · 41.6% peak1,190,972 · 41.6% peak1,296,649 · 45.3% peak1,296,649 · 45.3% peak335,163 · 11.7% peak335,163 · 11.7% peak570,850 · 19.9% peak570,850 · 19.9% peak750,776 · 26.2% peak750,776 · 26.2% peak513,421 · 17.9% peak513,421 · 17.9% peak574,476 · 20.1% peak574,476 · 20.1% peak292,320 · 10.2% peak292,320 · 10.2% peak965,753 · 33.7% peak965,753 · 33.7% peak825,153 · 28.8% peak825,153 · 28.8% peak2,111,801 · 73.8% peak2,111,801 · 73.8% peak286,893 · 10.0% peak286,893 · 10.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 20029480 · peak 2863271 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.05 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.14 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 4-78.80bpbin -78.80bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -78.80bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-62.20bpbin -62.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -62.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-45.60bpbin -45.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -45.60bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-28.99bpbin -28.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.99bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-12.39bpbin -12.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -12.39bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 24.21bpbin 4.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 4.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 220.81bpbin 20.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 20.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 137.41bpbin 37.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 37.41bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 454.01bpbin 54.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 54.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 170.61bpbin 70.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 70.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 187.21bpbin 87.21bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 87.21bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2103.82bpbin 103.82bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 103.82bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.09 · kurt=-1.06 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0056
Mid price
$0.0056
24h change
+0.63%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0055

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.21)
μ MEAN0.0055$95% CI: [0.0055$, 0.0055$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.57%
med MEDIAN0.0055$Q₁ 0.0055$ · Q₃ 0.0056$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0055$Q₁ 0.0055$med 0.0055$Q₃ 0.0056$max 0.0056$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.098approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.209platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.29
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.25
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.048362%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.078
σᵣ STD / h0.623997%σ²ᵣ = 0.389×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.90×
σ ANNUALISED58.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.624%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.25excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.11strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.09approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.02platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.12
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+423.65%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.86%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.863%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.869%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.867%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.75%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.863%VaR₉₉−0.869%ES₉₅−0.867%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK0.56$
−1.75% drawdown over 3h
0.55$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.00× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.79% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.572 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0056
Bollinger MA
$0.0055
Bollinger lower
$0.0055

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.064within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.377lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.748strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.220significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.748
H = 0.748STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.064k=2-0.377k=3-0.030k=4-0.084k=5-0.0160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.22)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.22)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$110.08k
Open interest (USD)
$84.85k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.30x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.12% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.52%MILD BULLISH +1.16%BEST+1.12%20hWORST-0.87%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.52%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.16%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.71%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.16%+1.88%0.00%0.60% · 12h0.60% · 12h0.60%12h0.87% · 13h0.87% · 13h0.87%13h-0.59% · 14h-0.59% · 14h-0.59%14h-0.31% · 15h-0.31% · 15h-0.31%15h-0.29% · 16h-0.29% · 16h-0.29%16h0.62% · 17h0.62% · 17h0.62%17h-0.38% · 18h-0.38% · 18h-0.38%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h1.12% · 20h1.12% · 20h1.12%20h★ BEST-0.81% · 21h-0.81% · 21h-0.81%21h0.13% · 22h0.13% · 22h0.13%22h1.12% · 23h1.12% · 23h1.12%23h-0.04% · 00h-0.04% · 00h-0.04%00h-0.86% · 01h-0.86% · 01h-0.86%01h-0.87% · 02h-0.87% · 02h-0.87%02h▼ WORST0.02% · 03h0.02% · 03h0.02%03h0.47% · 04h0.47% · 04h0.47%04h0.61% · 05h0.61% · 05h0.61%05h0.68% · 06h0.68% · 06h0.68%06h-0.86% · 07h-0.86% · 07h-0.86%07h0.36% · 08h0.36% · 08h0.36%08h0.25% · 09h0.25% · 09h0.25%09h-0.27% · 10h-0.27% · 10h-0.27%10h-0.20% · 11h-0.20% · 11h-0.20%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.30%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.12% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.522%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.12%FINAL+1.12%MAX DD-1.76%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.86%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0112 · peak 1.0186 · range [1.0000, 1.0186]1.01861.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0186UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.76% · moderate0%-1.76%▼ TROUGH -1.76%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.76%bar 14-19 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -1.19%bar 4-12 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -0.86%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.76%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0112 (1.12%) · max DD -1.76% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=5.34 · σ=20.82MIXED EDGELAST -1.02 (-0.31σ vs μ)43.1521.570.00-21.57-43.15μ = 5.3422.5622.56-2.35-2.35-43.15-43.1513.9713.971.181.1810.4910.4918.9218.9226.8126.8111.5911.59-26.42-26.42-10.75-10.75-3.30-3.30-16.26-16.261.171.171.181.1834.7434.7441.6241.6220.4620.46-1.02-1.02v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -1.022 · range [-43.15, 41.62] · μ 5.339 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.9715 · σ=10.3404 · range [39.1526, 82.1861] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -10.51%σ EXTREME 16.42%LAST 51.531082.186171.427760.669349.910939.1526μ = 62.9715max 82.1861min 39.1526dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.53% · range [39.15%, 82.19%] · μ 62.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.130 · σ=0.353CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.546 (-1.18σ vs μ)0.5780.2890.000-0.289-0.578μ = -0.1300.0660.066-0.368-0.368-0.197-0.197-0.235-0.235-0.578-0.578-0.561-0.561-0.338-0.338-0.520-0.520-0.243-0.2430.2580.2580.2960.2960.2310.2310.4510.4510.5650.5650.0380.038-0.253-0.253-0.225-0.225-0.302-0.302-0.546-0.546v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.546 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0824
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5821
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.3964
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4953
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.4004
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0114
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3320
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1263
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2115
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.620 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.74e-5 · top T=3.43h (22.6%) · top-3 cover 48.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.6e-55.1e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.33e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.33e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.87e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.87e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.35e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.35e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.22e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.22e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.72e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 22.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 22.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.06e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.06e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.79e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.79e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.94e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.487e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.58× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -14.93400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -14.93
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -12.44σ ann 130% · Sortino -7.75 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1493%-1163%-834%-504%-174%156%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)129.9%Ann. vol σ-1244.3%Sharpe (ann)-775.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0050.0050.0050.0060.0060.006t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:33 UTC
Snapshot age
4.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d1e2f3ee22d1b83bc8b9ec1b71846e991333388904d385a62b2627c474dcd8fb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.72HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.75K
bid $2.41K · ask $3.34K
Depth within 10bp
$11.70K
bid $5.03K · ask $6.67K
Depth within 50bp
$28.00K
bid $13.57K · ask $14.44K
Mid price
0.005550
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.213
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.115
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0055512.70bp0.0055511FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00555510.28bp0.0055667FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00558259.17bp0.00562920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0055483.27bp0.0055472FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00554312.52bp0.0055339FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.005458164.84bp0.00535420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-people/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$20.03M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-people/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.136 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.42M
real volume
Sell weight
$11.06M
real volume
Net delta
$2.65M
sellers net
Imbalance
-13.59%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-people/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.75% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 01:00:00Z2.0h0.005585→0.0054871.755%3
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.005563→0.0054971.186%3
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z1.0h0.005586→0.0055380.859%2

/api/asset/hl-people/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
129.94%
σ per bar = 0.000567
Mean return (annualised)
-1616.75%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.60%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 467 bars

/api/asset/hl-people/risk · same metrics, JSON