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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NXPC

NXPC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-nxpc · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.20%
realized vol (ann.)
70.46%
max drawdown
0.86%
sharpe
-16.68
ulcer index
0.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3248.35
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1424.82
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.20%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.20%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-nxpc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.313
24h Δ · live
-1.20%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
NXPC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3140 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.3109, 0.3181] · R²=0.201▼ FALLING -1.15%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.31330.31810.31630.31450.31270.3109μ = 0.3140max 0.3181min 0.3109dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.31
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=341,381 · μ=13655.2 · σ=13333.8 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13016,24132,48248,72264,963μ = 1365564,96350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 64963 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.3133
$mid $
$0.3134
◉prev-day close
$0.3171
Δ24h Δ %
-1.198%
$24h vol $
$104.82k
◐open interest $
$643.13k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3140 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.3109, 0.3181] · R²=0.201▼ FALLING -1.15%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 0.31330.31810.31630.31450.31270.3109μ = 0.3140max 0.3181min 0.3109dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3133 · 24h -1.20% · range $[0.3109, 0.3181]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.3100, 0.3202] · σ=0.0022 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BEARISH -1.89%CLOSE 0.3133 vs OPEN 0.3194 (-1.89%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.31330.32020.31760.31510.31260.3100μ close = 0.3140O0.319 H0.320 L0.317 C0.317 (-0.75%)O0.319 H0.320 L0.317 C0.317 (-0.75%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (+0.33%)O0.317 H0.320 L0.316 C0.318 (+0.33%)O0.318 H0.319 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.60%)O0.318 H0.319 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.60%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.316 (-0.26%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.316 (-0.26%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.69%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.69%)O0.314 H0.314 L0.312 C0.314 (+0.22%)O0.314 H0.314 L0.312 C0.314 (+0.22%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.316 (+0.21%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.316 (+0.21%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.48%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.48%)O0.314 H0.317 L0.314 C0.317 (+0.85%)O0.314 H0.317 L0.314 C0.317 (+0.85%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.51%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.51%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.19%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.19%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.312 C0.312 (-0.73%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.312 C0.312 (-0.73%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.311 C0.312 (-0.13%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.311 C0.312 (-0.13%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.310 C0.312 (+0.20%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.310 C0.312 (+0.20%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.37%)O0.312 H0.312 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.37%)O0.311 H0.312 L0.311 C0.311 (+0.03%)O0.311 H0.312 L0.311 C0.311 (+0.03%)O0.311 H0.312 L0.311 C0.312 (+0.15%)O0.311 H0.312 L0.311 C0.312 (+0.15%)O0.312 H0.313 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.28%)O0.312 H0.313 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.28%)O0.311 H0.313 L0.310 C0.312 (+0.17%)O0.311 H0.313 L0.310 C0.312 (+0.17%)O0.312 H0.313 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.21%)O0.312 H0.313 L0.311 C0.311 (-0.21%)1.9%O0.311 H0.317 L0.311 C0.317 (+1.86%)O0.311 H0.317 L0.311 C0.317 (+1.86%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.22%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.314 C0.315 (-0.22%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.51%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.314 C0.314 (-0.51%)O0.315 H0.319 L0.314 C0.316 (+0.30%)O0.315 H0.319 L0.314 C0.316 (+0.30%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.313 C0.313 (-0.64%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.313 C0.313 (-0.64%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=341,381 · μ=13655.2 · σ=13333.8 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13016,24132,48248,72264,963μ = 136558,055 · 12.4% peak8,055 · 12.4% peak40,572 · 62.5% peak40,572 · 62.5% peak5,493 · 8.5% peak5,493 · 8.5% peak11,000 · 16.9% peak11,000 · 16.9% peak30,384 · 46.8% peak30,384 · 46.8% peak16,091 · 24.8% peak16,091 · 24.8% peak9,802 · 15.1% peak9,802 · 15.1% peak11,324 · 17.4% peak11,324 · 17.4% peak13,641 · 21.0% peak13,641 · 21.0% peak7,263 · 11.2% peak7,263 · 11.2% peak8,021 · 12.3% peak8,021 · 12.3% peak6,071 · 9.3% peak6,071 · 9.3% peak7,184 · 11.1% peak7,184 · 11.1% peak13,694 · 21.1% peak13,694 · 21.1% peak5,355 · 8.2% peak5,355 · 8.2% peak5,919 · 9.1% peak5,919 · 9.1% peak6,841 · 10.5% peak6,841 · 10.5% peak10,492 · 16.2% peak10,492 · 16.2% peak7,358 · 11.3% peak7,358 · 11.3% peak5,693 · 8.8% peak5,693 · 8.8% peak9,706 · 14.9% peak9,706 · 14.9% peak8,988 · 13.8% peak8,988 · 13.8% peak12,944 · 19.9% peak12,944 · 19.9% peak64,96364,963 · 100.0% peak64,963 · 100.0% peak14,527 · 22.4% peak14,527 · 22.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 341381 · peak 64963 · CV 0.98

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0055 · skew=1.33 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.00 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 5-62.99bpbin -62.99bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -62.99bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-41.53bpbin -41.53bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -41.53bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-20.07bpbin -20.07bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -20.07bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 11.39bpbin 1.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 1.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 422.85bpbin 22.85bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 22.85bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 344.31bpbin 44.31bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 44.31bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak65.77bp 187.23bpbin 87.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 87.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak108.69bp130.15bp151.61bp 1173.07bpbin 173.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 173.07bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.48 · kurt=2.79 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3133
Mid price
$0.3134
24h change
-1.20%
Mark–mid spread
3.19 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3171

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.32)
μ MEAN0.3140$95% CI: [0.3131$, 0.3148$]
σ STD DEV0.0022$σ² = 0.048×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.70%
med MEDIAN0.3140$Q₁ 0.3119$ · Q₃ 0.3156$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0073$ · IQR 0.0037$ (1.349σ→0.0029$)
min 0.3109$Q₁ 0.3119$med 0.3140$Q₃ 0.3156$max 0.3181$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.069approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.322platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.33
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-7.82
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.048124%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.084
σᵣ STD / h0.576310%σ²ᵣ = 0.332×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.98×
σ ANNUALISED53.94%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.576%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-7.82negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.73downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.59right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.78leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.25
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-421.57%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.67%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.674%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.726%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.714%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.29%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.674%VaR₉₉−0.726%ES₉₅−0.714%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK31.81$
−2.29% drawdown over 13h
31.09$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.34% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.488 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3174
Bollinger MA
$0.3134
Bollinger lower
$0.3095

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.335within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.046lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.194strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.404significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.194
H = 1.194STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.335k=2+0.046k=3+0.084k=4-0.216k=5+0.1310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.40)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.40)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$104.82k
Open interest (USD)
$643.13k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.84% · worst -0.74% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BEARISH -1.15%BEST+1.84%03hWORST-0.74%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.56%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.58%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.15%+0.37%-1.95%0.37% · 08h0.37% · 08h0.37%08h-0.55% · 09h-0.55% · 09h-0.55%09h-0.26% · 10h-0.26% · 10h-0.26%10h-0.58% · 11h-0.58% · 11h-0.58%11h0.21% · 12h0.21% · 12h0.21%12h0.37% · 13h0.37% · 13h0.37%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.81% · 15h0.81% · 15h0.81%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.12% · 17h-0.12% · 17h-0.12%17h-0.74% · 18h-0.74% · 18h-0.74%18h▼ WORST-0.11% · 19h-0.11% · 19h-0.11%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h-0.47% · 21h-0.47% · 21h-0.47%21h0.07% · 22h0.07% · 22h0.07%22h0.16% · 23h0.16% · 23h0.16%23h-0.18% · 00h-0.18% · 00h-0.18%00h0.22% · 01h0.22% · 01h0.22%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h1.84% · 03h1.84% · 03h1.84%03h★ BEST-0.44% · 04h-0.44% · 04h-0.44%04h-0.46% · 05h-0.46% · 05h-0.46%05h0.49% · 06h0.49% · 06h0.49%06h-0.69% · 07h-0.69% · 07h-0.69%07hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.56%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.84% · worst -0.74% · typical |Δ| 0.439%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.19%)FINAL-1.19%MAX DD-2.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.37%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9881 · peak 1.0037 · range [0.9805, 1.0037]1.00370.9805break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0037UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.30% · moderate0%-2.30%▼ TROUGH -2.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.30%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9881 (-1.19%) · max DD -2.30% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-12.98 · σ=31.07MIXED EDGELAST 8.63 (+0.70σ vs μ)85.1942.590.00-42.59-85.19μ = -12.98-15.58-15.58-49.37-49.371.441.44-5.76-5.767.287.28-18.22-18.22-33.48-33.48-15.07-15.07-85.19-85.19-55.40-55.40-39.15-39.15-23.69-23.69-2.81-2.81-24.46-24.4638.7138.7126.2226.2213.6513.6525.6725.678.638.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.628 · range [-85.19, 38.71] · μ -12.977 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.8362 · σ=20.8901 · range [22.9442, 88.7944] · R²=0.208▲ RISING +112.53%σ EXTREME 41.09%LAST 88.794488.794472.331955.869339.406822.9442μ = 50.8362max 88.7944min 22.9442dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 88.79% · range [22.94%, 88.79%] · μ 50.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.366 · σ=0.171MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.374 (-0.05σ vs μ)0.6450.3230.000-0.323-0.645μ = -0.366-0.041-0.041-0.045-0.045-0.321-0.321-0.608-0.608-0.645-0.645-0.512-0.512-0.496-0.496-0.237-0.237-0.353-0.353-0.401-0.401-0.165-0.165-0.507-0.507-0.468-0.468-0.346-0.346-0.198-0.198-0.512-0.512-0.332-0.332-0.395-0.395-0.374-0.374v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.374 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
24.3151
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3441
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3755
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3938
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3792
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2813
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.610 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.25e-5 · top T=2.40h (40.7%) · top-3 cover 58.0%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.4cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-47.9e-54.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.52e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.52e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.29e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.72e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.72e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.24e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.24e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.63e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.63e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.59e-4 · 40.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.59e-4 · 40.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.24e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.24e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 4.1% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=12.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 40.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.900e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.003% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.003% · σ 0.17%
μ per barmean
-0.003%
σ per barvol
0.17%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-10.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.04%-0.00%0.03%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -43.59400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.019
annualized -43.59
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -40.15σ ann 401% · Sortino -26.44 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4818%-3758%-2699%-1639%-579%481%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)400.6%Ann. vol σ-4015.2%Sharpe (ann)-2644.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2990.3190.3400.3610.3820.403t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
22a4baa1f48023c08774bc2a85eed4513ff2a177b8105d1878eef7a1185e7e32 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.13HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.35K
bid $893 · ask $456
Depth within 10bp
$4.53K
bid $2.35K · ask $2.18K
Depth within 50bp
$56.27K
bid $33.71K · ask $22.56K
Mid price
0.313185
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.169
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.404
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nxpc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3133304.62bp0.3133903FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.31379719.55bp0.31443011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.31440238.87bp0.31586020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3130863.15bp0.3130004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.31270915.21bp0.3124308FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.31211134.29bp0.31009020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$341.38K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-nxpc/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.132 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$188.59K
real volume
Sell weight
$144.74K
real volume
Net delta
$43.85K
buyers net
Imbalance
13.15%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-nxpc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.48% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 16:00:00Z4.0h0.316550→0.3118501.485%5
#22026-06-19 09:00:00Z3.0h0.318140→0.3137301.386%4
#32026-06-20 05:00:00Z0ms0.316820→0.3139700.900%1

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
400.63%
σ per bar = 0.001748
Mean return (annualised)
-16086.00%
μ per bar = -0.000031
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.15
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.20%
peak 0.38 → trough 0.31 over 4042 bars

/api/asset/hl-nxpc/risk · same metrics, JSON