Hyperliquid · cross-venue tool — comparing every venue, not just Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid ↗

HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NEO

NEO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-neo · fresh · feed 24s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.65%
realized vol (ann.)
47.31%
max drawdown
0.51%
sharpe
19.71
ulcer index
0.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4572.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2232.55
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.65%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +1.65%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-neo/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING23.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.207
24h Δ · live
1.65%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
NEO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1928 · σ=0.0142 · range [2.1676, 2.2200] · R²=0.559▲ RISING +1.73%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 2.20662.22002.20692.19382.18072.1676μ = 2.1928max 2.2200min 2.1676dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.21
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=38,892 · μ=1555.7 · σ=669.9 · CV=0.43STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1107461,4922,2382,983μ = 15562,983.4750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2983 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23.8s
$mark $
$2.2066
$mid $
$2.2071
◉prev-day close
$2.1707
Δ24h Δ %
+1.654%
$24h vol $
$78.82k
◐open interest $
$319.47k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1928 · σ=0.0142 · range [2.1676, 2.2200] · R²=0.559▲ RISING +1.73%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 2.20662.22002.20692.19382.18072.1676μ = 2.1928max 2.2200min 2.1676dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.2066 · 24h 1.65% · range $[2.1676, 2.2200]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [2.1609, 2.2242] · σ=0.0142 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +1.08%CLOSE 2.2066 vs OPEN 2.1831 (+1.08%)&#9650; CLOSE 2.20662.22422.20842.19252.17672.1609μ close = 2.1928O2.183 H2.183 L2.165 C2.169 (-0.64%)O2.183 H2.183 L2.165 C2.169 (-0.64%)O2.171 H2.179 L2.171 C2.173 (+0.09%)O2.171 H2.179 L2.171 C2.173 (+0.09%)O2.174 H2.174 L2.162 C2.168 (-0.30%)O2.174 H2.174 L2.162 C2.168 (-0.30%)O2.168 H2.171 L2.161 C2.170 (+0.06%)O2.168 H2.171 L2.161 C2.170 (+0.06%)O2.171 H2.183 L2.166 C2.173 (+0.11%)O2.171 H2.183 L2.166 C2.173 (+0.11%)O2.176 H2.186 L2.164 C2.186 (+0.46%)O2.176 H2.186 L2.164 C2.186 (+0.46%)0.9%O2.186 H2.216 L2.180 C2.205 (+0.86%)O2.186 H2.216 L2.180 C2.205 (+0.86%)O2.203 H2.206 L2.192 C2.192 (-0.47%)O2.203 H2.206 L2.192 C2.192 (-0.47%)O2.192 H2.200 L2.190 C2.194 (+0.07%)O2.192 H2.200 L2.190 C2.194 (+0.07%)O2.195 H2.208 L2.195 C2.199 (+0.17%)O2.195 H2.208 L2.195 C2.199 (+0.17%)O2.197 H2.212 L2.197 C2.206 (+0.38%)O2.197 H2.212 L2.197 C2.206 (+0.38%)O2.205 H2.208 L2.184 C2.193 (-0.52%)O2.205 H2.208 L2.184 C2.193 (-0.52%)O2.193 H2.197 L2.183 C2.186 (-0.35%)O2.193 H2.197 L2.183 C2.186 (-0.35%)O2.186 H2.197 L2.183 C2.197 (+0.50%)O2.186 H2.197 L2.183 C2.197 (+0.50%)O2.199 H2.201 L2.184 C2.186 (-0.58%)O2.199 H2.201 L2.184 C2.186 (-0.58%)O2.186 H2.198 L2.183 C2.194 (+0.38%)O2.186 H2.198 L2.183 C2.194 (+0.38%)O2.195 H2.213 L2.193 C2.211 (+0.76%)O2.195 H2.213 L2.193 C2.211 (+0.76%)O2.212 H2.216 L2.200 C2.201 (-0.51%)O2.212 H2.216 L2.200 C2.201 (-0.51%)O2.199 H2.203 L2.195 C2.200 (+0.02%)O2.199 H2.203 L2.195 C2.200 (+0.02%)O2.200 H2.201 L2.185 C2.186 (-0.61%)O2.200 H2.201 L2.185 C2.186 (-0.61%)O2.186 H2.198 L2.186 C2.193 (+0.31%)O2.186 H2.198 L2.186 C2.193 (+0.31%)O2.194 H2.206 L2.191 C2.205 (+0.52%)O2.194 H2.206 L2.191 C2.205 (+0.52%)O2.205 H2.224 L2.202 C2.207 (+0.06%)O2.205 H2.224 L2.202 C2.207 (+0.06%)O2.207 H2.221 L2.202 C2.220 (+0.58%)O2.207 H2.221 L2.202 C2.220 (+0.58%)O2.222 H2.222 L2.205 C2.207 (-0.68%)O2.222 H2.222 L2.205 C2.207 (-0.68%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=38,892 · μ=1555.7 · σ=669.9 · CV=0.43STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1107461,4922,2382,983μ = 15562,958.3 · 99.2% peak2,958.3 · 99.2% peak1,168.81 · 39.2% peak1,168.81 · 39.2% peak1,956.21 · 65.6% peak1,956.21 · 65.6% peak1,587.13 · 53.2% peak1,587.13 · 53.2% peak1,502.07 · 50.3% peak1,502.07 · 50.3% peak1,411.53 · 47.3% peak1,411.53 · 47.3% peak2,948.23 · 98.8% peak2,948.23 · 98.8% peak1,648.62 · 55.3% peak1,648.62 · 55.3% peak992.34 · 33.3% peak992.34 · 33.3% peak1,746.68 · 58.5% peak1,746.68 · 58.5% peak2,983.472,983.47 · 100.0% peak2,983.47 · 100.0% peak1,151.7 · 38.6% peak1,151.7 · 38.6% peak1,062.5 · 35.6% peak1,062.5 · 35.6% peak1,284.16 · 43.0% peak1,284.16 · 43.0% peak1,040.67 · 34.9% peak1,040.67 · 34.9% peak1,235.96 · 41.4% peak1,235.96 · 41.4% peak848.6 · 28.4% peak848.6 · 28.4% peak2,283.92 · 76.6% peak2,283.92 · 76.6% peak1,112.29 · 37.3% peak1,112.29 · 37.3% peak718.63 · 24.1% peak718.63 · 24.1% peak1,978.83 · 66.3% peak1,978.83 · 66.3% peak1,896.35 · 63.6% peak1,896.35 · 63.6% peak1,702.51 · 57.1% peak1,702.51 · 57.1% peak844.18 · 28.3% peak844.18 · 28.3% peak828.05 · 27.8% peak828.05 · 27.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 38892 · peak 2983 · CV 0.43

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0008 · σ=0.0044 · skew=-0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.16 (platykurtic (thin tails))54310 5-55.33bpbin -55.33bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -55.33bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1-42.87bpbin -42.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -42.87bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-30.42bpbin -30.42bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -30.42bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-17.96bpbin -17.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -17.96bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-5.51bpbin -5.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -5.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 36.95bpbin 6.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 6.95bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 319.40bpbin 19.40bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 19.40bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 331.86bpbin 31.86bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 31.86bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak44.31bp 456.77bpbin 56.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 56.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak69.23bp 281.68bpbin 81.68bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 81.68bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.09 · kurt=-1.16 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.2066
Mid price
$2.2071
24h change
+1.65%
Mark–mid spread
2.27 bps
Prev-day close
$2.1707

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN2.1928$95% CI: [2.1873$, 2.1984$]
σ STD DEV0.0142$σ² = 2.012×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN2.1940$Q₁ 2.1858$ · Q₃ 2.2050$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0524$ · IQR 0.0192$ (1.349σ→0.0191$)
min 2.1676$Q₁ 2.1858$med 2.1940$Q₃ 2.2050$max 2.2200$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.283approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.869mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.69
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=14.30
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.071419%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.153
σᵣ STD / h0.467506%σ²ᵣ = 0.219×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.55×
σ ANNUALISED43.76%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.468%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)14.30excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)13.99strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.10approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.15platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.98
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+625.63%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.60%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.601%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.613%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.611%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.14%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.601%VaR₉₉−0.613%ES₉₅−0.611%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK221.14$
−1.14% drawdown over 3h
218.63$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
58.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.718 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.2172
Bollinger MA
$2.1984
Bollinger lower
$2.1797

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.197within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.172lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.003strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.402significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.003
H = 1.003STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.197k=2-0.172k=3-0.040k=4-0.215k=5+0.2090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.40)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.40)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$78.82k
Open interest (USD)
$319.47k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.88% · worst -0.62% · typical |Δ| 0.40%BULLISH SESSION +1.71%BEST+0.88%13hWORST-0.62%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.79%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.71%+2.32%-0.07%0.16% · 08h0.16% · 08h0.16%08h-0.23% · 09h-0.23% · 09h-0.23%09h0.09% · 10h0.09% · 10h0.09%10h0.18% · 11h0.18% · 11h0.18%11h0.57% · 12h0.57% · 12h0.57%12h0.88% · 13h0.88% · 13h0.88%13h★ BEST-0.58% · 14h-0.58% · 14h-0.58%14h0.07% · 15h0.07% · 15h0.07%15h0.24% · 16h0.24% · 16h0.24%16h0.29% · 17h0.29% · 17h0.29%17h-0.56% · 18h-0.56% · 18h-0.56%18h-0.35% · 19h-0.35% · 19h-0.35%19h0.53% · 20h0.53% · 20h0.53%20h-0.51% · 21h-0.51% · 21h-0.51%21h0.37% · 22h0.37% · 22h0.37%22h0.78% · 23h0.78% · 23h0.78%23h-0.48% · 00h-0.48% · 00h-0.48%00h-0.05% · 01h-0.05% · 01h-0.05%01h-0.62% · 02h-0.62% · 02h-0.62%02h▼ WORST0.31% · 03h0.31% · 03h0.31%03h0.55% · 04h0.55% · 04h0.55%04h0.08% · 05h0.08% · 05h0.08%05h0.60% · 06h0.60% · 06h0.60%06h-0.61% · 07h-0.61% · 07h-0.61%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.14%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 0.88% · worst -0.62% · typical |Δ| 0.402%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.70%FINAL+1.70%MAX DD-1.14%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.32%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0170 · peak 1.0232 · range [0.9993, 1.0232]1.02320.9993break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0232UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.14% · moderate0%-1.14%▼ TROUGH -1.14%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -1.14%bar 18-23 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -0.91%bar 12-16 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.61%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.14%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0170 (1.70%) · max DD -1.14% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=13.65 · σ=24.15PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 8.83 (-0.20σ vs μ)65.5432.770.00-32.77-65.54μ = 13.6565.5465.5426.8426.8438.0038.0042.9542.9546.6246.629.479.47-34.94-34.948.248.24-12.03-12.03-7.13-7.137.017.019.659.6518.8318.83-13.86-13.869.209.2013.5713.57-7.43-7.4329.9129.918.838.83v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.825 · range [-34.94, 65.54] · μ 13.646 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=46.8462 · σ=5.5597 · range [36.6703, 54.6765] · R²=0.096▲ RISING +39.24%σ HIGH 11.87%LAST 51.059554.676550.175045.673441.171936.6703μ = 46.8462max 54.6765min 36.6703dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.06% · range [36.67%, 54.68%] · μ 46.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.156 · σ=0.224MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.254 (-0.44σ vs μ)0.5410.2700.000-0.270-0.541μ = -0.1560.4180.418-0.137-0.137-0.148-0.148-0.159-0.159-0.140-0.140-0.408-0.4080.0750.075-0.062-0.062-0.329-0.329-0.541-0.541-0.093-0.093-0.493-0.493-0.377-0.377-0.108-0.108-0.137-0.137-0.176-0.1760.0810.0810.0310.031-0.254-0.254v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.254 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3501
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5091
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8253
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4384
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1700
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2250
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6334
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1831
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2368
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.640 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.09e-5 · top T=2.40h (31.4%) · top-3 cover 61.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.9e-55.9e-54.0e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.77e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.77e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.39e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.39e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.09e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.09e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.13e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.13e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.21e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.21e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.90e-5 · 31.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.90e-5 · 31.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.78e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.78e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.33e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.33e-9 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 31.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.513e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.35× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.31× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.13%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.13%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.35×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.31×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.17×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.59×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.4×2.7×4.1×5.4×6.8×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.58× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 7.46400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.58× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.46
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.12%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.09σ ann 307% · Sortino 5.51 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)306.6%Ann. vol σ709.2%Sharpe (ann)551.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.9892.0782.1662.2552.3432.431t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Snapshot age
23.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d6c2981461887e54552e2d263d3c8ed77437b3149553eb939831331f95ce48b5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.47K
bid $2.16K · ask $1.31K
Depth within 10bp
$6.83K
bid $4.09K · ask $2.74K
Depth within 50bp
$32.05K
bid $14.08K · ask $17.97K
Mid price
2.207000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.054
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.396
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-neo/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.20762.67bp2.20793FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.210616.46bp2.212510FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.220259.90bp2.243420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K2.20652.05bp2.20652FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.204212.63bp2.19938FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.187289.74bp2.155920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-neo/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$38.89K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-neo/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.343 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$24.13K
real volume
Sell weight
$11.80K
real volume
Net delta
$12.33K
buyers net
Imbalance
34.31%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
34.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-neo/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.14% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 01:00:00Z1.0h2.2114→2.18631.135%2
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h2.2056→2.18560.907%2
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms2.2200→2.20660.604%1

/api/asset/hl-neo/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
306.63%
σ per bar = 0.001338
Mean return (annualised)
2174.57%
μ per bar = 0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.70%
peak 2.33 → trough 2.15 over 3975 bars

/api/asset/hl-neo/risk · same metrics, JSON