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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MET

MET-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-met · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 16.63%
realized vol (ann.)
223.80%
max drawdown
5.07%
sharpe
-20.99
ulcer index
2.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1989.96
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.80%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-979.02
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
16.63%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +16.63%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-met/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH940ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.147
24h Δ · live
16.63%
24h vol · live
$6.5M
MET · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1418 · σ=0.0075 · range [0.1242, 0.1521] · R²=0.724▲ RISING +18.17%σ HIGH 5.31%LAST 0.14680.15210.14510.13820.13120.1242μ = 0.1418max 0.1521min 0.1242dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.15
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=46,693,570 · μ=1867742.8 · σ=1893892.2 · CV=1.01BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1001,802,6483,605,2965,407,9437,210,591μ = 18677437,210,59150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 7210591 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
940ms
$mark $
$0.147
$mid $
$0.147
◉prev-day close
$0.126
Δ24h Δ %
+16.627%
$24h vol $
$6.51M
◐open interest $
$3.21M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1418 · σ=0.0075 · range [0.1242, 0.1521] · R²=0.724▲ RISING +18.17%σ HIGH 5.31%LAST 0.14680.15210.14510.13820.13120.1242μ = 0.1418max 0.1521min 0.1242dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1469 · 24h 16.63% · range $[0.1242, 0.1521]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1239, 0.1625] · σ=0.0075 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +16.47%CLOSE 0.1468 vs OPEN 0.1260 (+16.47%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.14680.16250.15290.14320.13360.1239μ close = 0.1418O0.126 H0.129 L0.124 C0.124 (-1.44%)O0.126 H0.129 L0.124 C0.124 (-1.44%)O0.125 H0.130 L0.124 C0.130 (+4.05%)O0.125 H0.130 L0.124 C0.130 (+4.05%)O0.129 H0.138 L0.126 C0.138 (+6.43%)O0.129 H0.138 L0.126 C0.138 (+6.43%)O0.138 H0.146 L0.133 C0.135 (-2.24%)O0.138 H0.146 L0.133 C0.135 (-2.24%)O0.135 H0.135 L0.129 C0.133 (-1.21%)O0.135 H0.135 L0.129 C0.133 (-1.21%)O0.133 H0.135 L0.130 C0.131 (-1.57%)O0.133 H0.135 L0.130 C0.131 (-1.57%)O0.131 H0.141 L0.131 C0.140 (+7.22%)O0.131 H0.141 L0.131 C0.140 (+7.22%)O0.140 H0.142 L0.137 C0.138 (-1.91%)O0.140 H0.142 L0.137 C0.138 (-1.91%)O0.138 H0.142 L0.136 C0.140 (+1.40%)O0.138 H0.142 L0.136 C0.140 (+1.40%)O0.140 H0.145 L0.138 C0.141 (+0.50%)O0.140 H0.145 L0.138 C0.141 (+0.50%)O0.141 H0.146 L0.138 C0.142 (+1.13%)O0.141 H0.146 L0.138 C0.142 (+1.13%)O0.142 H0.144 L0.139 C0.139 (-2.28%)O0.142 H0.144 L0.139 C0.139 (-2.28%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.136 C0.136 (-1.88%)O0.139 H0.139 L0.136 C0.136 (-1.88%)11.4%O0.136 H0.163 L0.134 C0.151 (+11.37%)O0.136 H0.163 L0.134 C0.151 (+11.37%)O0.151 H0.153 L0.144 C0.145 (-4.53%)O0.151 H0.153 L0.144 C0.145 (-4.53%)O0.145 H0.152 L0.143 C0.152 (+5.23%)O0.145 H0.152 L0.143 C0.152 (+5.23%)O0.151 H0.155 L0.149 C0.150 (-1.02%)O0.151 H0.155 L0.149 C0.150 (-1.02%)O0.150 H0.155 L0.146 C0.146 (-2.42%)O0.150 H0.155 L0.146 C0.146 (-2.42%)O0.146 H0.148 L0.144 C0.144 (-1.67%)O0.146 H0.148 L0.144 C0.144 (-1.67%)O0.144 H0.147 L0.144 C0.145 (+0.80%)O0.144 H0.147 L0.144 C0.145 (+0.80%)O0.145 H0.151 L0.145 C0.147 (+1.45%)O0.145 H0.151 L0.145 C0.147 (+1.45%)O0.147 H0.150 L0.146 C0.148 (+0.37%)O0.147 H0.150 L0.146 C0.148 (+0.37%)O0.148 H0.154 L0.148 C0.151 (+2.27%)O0.148 H0.154 L0.148 C0.151 (+2.27%)O0.152 H0.153 L0.150 C0.152 (+0.17%)O0.152 H0.153 L0.150 C0.152 (+0.17%)O0.151 H0.151 L0.146 C0.147 (-3.08%)O0.151 H0.151 L0.146 C0.147 (-3.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=46,693,570 · μ=1867742.8 · σ=1893892.2 · CV=1.01BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1001,802,6483,605,2965,407,9437,210,591μ = 1867743738,063 · 10.2% peak738,063 · 10.2% peak1,806,316 · 25.1% peak1,806,316 · 25.1% peak3,287,868 · 45.6% peak3,287,868 · 45.6% peak5,660,412 · 78.5% peak5,660,412 · 78.5% peak1,216,408 · 16.9% peak1,216,408 · 16.9% peak1,212,172 · 16.8% peak1,212,172 · 16.8% peak1,547,932 · 21.5% peak1,547,932 · 21.5% peak3,538,554 · 49.1% peak3,538,554 · 49.1% peak1,445,623 · 20.0% peak1,445,623 · 20.0% peak6,011,610 · 83.4% peak6,011,610 · 83.4% peak2,366,983 · 32.8% peak2,366,983 · 32.8% peak1,065,469 · 14.8% peak1,065,469 · 14.8% peak907,186 · 12.6% peak907,186 · 12.6% peak7,210,5917,210,591 · 100.0% peak7,210,591 · 100.0% peak2,335,437 · 32.4% peak2,335,437 · 32.4% peak1,168,003 · 16.2% peak1,168,003 · 16.2% peak1,020,021 · 14.1% peak1,020,021 · 14.1% peak966,098 · 13.4% peak966,098 · 13.4% peak224,181 · 3.1% peak224,181 · 3.1% peak219,000 · 3.0% peak219,000 · 3.0% peak264,536 · 3.7% peak264,536 · 3.7% peak193,611 · 2.7% peak193,611 · 2.7% peak1,142,935 · 15.9% peak1,142,935 · 15.9% peak451,613 · 6.3% peak451,613 · 6.3% peak692,948 · 9.6% peak692,948 · 9.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 46693570 · peak 7210591 · CV 1.01

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0066 · σ=0.0353 · skew=0.92 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.15 (mesokurtic)65320 2-397.95bpbin -397.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -397.95bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-272.96bpbin -272.96bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -272.96bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-147.97bpbin -147.97bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -147.97bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-22.98bpbin -22.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -22.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6102.01bpbin 102.01bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 102.01bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1227.00bpbin 227.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 227.00bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak351.99bp 2476.98bpbin 476.98bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 476.98bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1601.98bpbin 601.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 601.98bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1726.97bpbin 726.97bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 726.97bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak851.96bp 1976.95bpbin 976.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 976.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.00 · kurt=0.45 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.147
Mid price
$0.147
24h change
+16.63%
Mark–mid spread
4.42 bps
Prev-day close
$0.126

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1418$95% CI: [0.1388$, 0.1447$]
σ STD DEV0.0075$σ² = 0.566×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.31%
med MEDIAN0.1422$Q₁ 0.1378$ · Q₃ 0.1473$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0279$ · IQR 0.0095$ (1.349σ→0.0102$)
min 0.1242$Q₁ 0.1378$med 0.1422$Q₃ 0.1473$max 0.1521$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.459approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.679mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=17.88
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.695723%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.191
σᵣ STD / h3.642354%σ²ᵣ = 13.267×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.24×
σ ANNUALISED340.91%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 3.642%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)17.88excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)26.76strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.07right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.86mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.50
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+6094.54%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.24%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.242%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)4.320%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.987%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.42%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.242%VaR₉₉−4.320%ES₉₅−3.987%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK15.21$
−5.42% drawdown over 3h
14.39$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.73% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.608 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1559
Bollinger MA
$0.1443
Bollinger lower
$0.1327

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.355within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.861strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.761significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.861
H = 0.861STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.355k=2+0.017k=3-0.142k=4+0.013k=5-0.0190+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$6.51M
Open interest (USD)
$3.21M
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.03x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.244× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.622× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.311×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.39% · worst -4.60% · typical |Δ| 2.76%MILD BULLISH +16.70%BEST+10.39%00hWORST-4.60%01hTYPICAL |Δ|2.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+16.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.96% · Σ +7.70%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.81% · Σ +6.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +16.70%+20.28%0.00%4.25% · 12h4.25% · 12h4.25%12h6.13% · 13h6.13% · 13h6.13%13h-2.11% · 14h-2.11% · 14h-2.11%14h-1.41% · 15h-1.41% · 15h-1.41%15h-1.60% · 16h-1.60% · 16h-1.60%16h7.04% · 17h7.04% · 17h7.04%17h-1.91% · 18h-1.91% · 18h-1.91%18h1.51% · 19h1.51% · 19h1.51%19h0.50% · 20h0.50% · 20h0.50%20h1.17% · 21h1.17% · 21h1.17%21h-2.31% · 22h-2.31% · 22h-2.31%22h-1.90% · 23h-1.90% · 23h-1.90%23h10.39% · 00h10.39% · 00h10.39%00h★ BEST-4.60% · 01h-4.60% · 01h-4.60%01h▼ WORST5.13% · 02h5.13% · 02h5.13%02h-1.44% · 03h-1.44% · 03h-1.44%03h-2.52% · 04h-2.52% · 04h-2.52%04h-1.61% · 05h-1.61% · 05h-1.61%05h0.90% · 06h0.90% · 06h0.90%06h1.44% · 07h1.44% · 07h1.44%07h0.26% · 08h0.26% · 08h0.26%08h2.22% · 09h2.22% · 09h2.22%09h0.54% · 10h0.54% · 10h0.54%10h-3.37% · 11h-3.37% · 11h-3.37%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+7.70%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 10.39% · worst -4.60% · typical |Δ| 2.760%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +16.38%FINAL+16.38%MAX DD-5.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+20.81%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1638 · peak 1.2081 · range [1.0000, 1.2081]1.20811.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2081UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.47% · significant0%-5.47%▼ TROUGH -5.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -5.47%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -5.03%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -4.60%bar 15-15 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.1638 (16.38%) · max DD -5.47% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=13.80 · σ=20.70PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 15.92 (+0.10σ vs μ)45.5122.750.00-22.75-45.51μ = 13.8045.5145.5122.1622.166.656.6519.0119.0132.3932.3927.8327.83-26.44-26.4431.6931.699.659.6522.0422.0414.4714.4713.8413.8414.6814.68-19.22-19.2210.5610.56-29.29-29.295.845.8444.9144.9115.9215.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 15.918 · range [-29.29, 45.51] · μ 13.799 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=340.8971 · σ=141.9273 · range [121.5266, 534.8796] · R²=0.130▼ FALLING -53.95%σ EXTREME 41.63%LAST 181.7617534.8796431.5414328.2031224.8649121.5266μ = 340.8971max 534.8796min 121.5266dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 181.76% · range [121.53%, 534.88%] · μ 340.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.260 · σ=0.338MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.002 (+0.78σ vs μ)0.6800.3400.000-0.340-0.680μ = -0.2600.0090.009-0.379-0.379-0.359-0.359-0.497-0.497-0.680-0.680-0.354-0.3540.0210.021-0.143-0.143-0.504-0.504-0.600-0.600-0.635-0.635-0.635-0.635-0.426-0.426-0.452-0.4520.0390.0390.5420.5420.2820.282-0.168-0.1680.0020.002v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.002 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.3024
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.0483
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5444
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7245
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0734
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8430
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8569
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0633
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.435 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.28e-3 · top T=2.40h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 62.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-32.5e-31.7e-38.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.95e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.95e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-3 · 11.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.74e-3 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.07e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.07e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.51e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.92e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.92e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.83e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.83e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.17e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.17e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.39e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.39e-3 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.24e-3 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.24e-3 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 1.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.534e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 7.48× · g(f★) 0.015%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.59× · μ 0.005% · σ 0.46%
μ per barmean
0.005%
σ per barvol
0.46%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
7.48×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.59×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.74×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.87×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.02%0.0×1.5×3.0×4.5×6.0×7.5×μ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.65× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 26.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.65× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.012
annualized 26.91
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.29%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.12%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.92×0.99×1.06×1.13×1.20×1.27×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 27.22σ ann 1000% · Sortino 100.00 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%2400%4800%7200%9600%12000%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)1000.0%Ann. vol σ2721.7%Sharpe (ann)10000.0Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1020.1170.1320.1480.1630.178t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
940ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f3d548b84204a7d87012205e8b1f0e8aac6eabe5456a3a7315ffb50e8f78b438 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.73K
bid $1.30K · ask $430
Depth within 10bp
$4.74K
bid $2.22K · ask $2.52K
Depth within 50bp
$41.35K
bid $20.04K · ask $21.31K
Mid price
0.147015
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.029
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.038
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-met/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1471146.75bp0.1471503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.14724215.47bp0.14732011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.14736023.48bp0.14758020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1469504.42bp0.1469501FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.14680714.18bp0.14671012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.14671420.49bp0.14652020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-met/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$46.69M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-met/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.180 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$27.12M
real volume
Sell weight
$18.84M
real volume
Net delta
$8.28M
buyers net
Imbalance
18.01%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-met/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 5.42% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 03:00:00Z3.0h0.152130→0.1438905.416%4
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.137780→0.1309104.986%3
#32026-06-20 01:00:00Z0ms0.151330→0.1445204.500%1

/api/asset/hl-met/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
1049.90%
σ per bar = 0.004579
Mean return (annualised)
28574.92%
μ per bar = 0.000054
Sharpe (rf=0)
27.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.49%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.11 over 2197 bars

/api/asset/hl-met/risk · same metrics, JSON