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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MERL

MERL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-merl · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.47%
realized vol (ann.)
69.21%
max drawdown
0.79%
sharpe
56.68
ulcer index
0.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.31%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
10521.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.69%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
5683.55
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.12
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.47%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-merl/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.020
24h Δ · live
-0.47%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MERL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0202 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0196, 0.0207] · R²=0.328▼ FALLING -0.14%σ NORMAL 1.60%LAST 0.02030.02070.02040.02020.01990.0196μ = 0.0202max 0.0207min 0.0196dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,051,064 · μ=162042.6 · σ=123674.2 · CV=0.76RISING +75% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160136,032272,065408,097544,129μ = 162043544,12950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 544129 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.8s
$mark $
$0.0203
$mid $
$0.0203
◉prev-day close
$0.0204
Δ24h Δ %
-0.465%
$24h vol $
$79.83k
◐open interest $
$341.80k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0202 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0196, 0.0207] · R²=0.328▼ FALLING -0.14%σ NORMAL 1.60%LAST 0.02030.02070.02040.02020.01990.0196μ = 0.0202max 0.0207min 0.0196dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0203 · 24h -0.47% · range $[0.0196, 0.0207]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0195, 0.0208] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=56%BEARISH -0.27%CLOSE 0.0203 vs OPEN 0.0204 (-0.27%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02030.02080.02050.02020.01980.0195μ close = 0.0202O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.13%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.13%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.40%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.40%)1.4%O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+1.40%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+1.40%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.40%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (-0.40%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.56%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.021 C0.021 (+0.56%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.08%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.08%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.73%)O0.020 H0.021 L0.020 C0.021 (+0.73%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.15%)O0.021 H0.021 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.15%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.01%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.01%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.47%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.47%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.12%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.12%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.77%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.77%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.35%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.35%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.38%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.38%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.40%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.40%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.03%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-1.03%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.40%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.40%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.16%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.16%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+1.39%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+1.39%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.11%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.11%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.06%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.06%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.81%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.81%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.69%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+0.69%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+1.16%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (+1.16%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.16%)O0.020 H0.020 L0.020 C0.020 (-0.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,051,064 · μ=162042.6 · σ=123674.2 · CV=0.76RISING +75% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160136,032272,065408,097544,129μ = 162043101,141 · 18.6% peak101,141 · 18.6% peak205,225 · 37.7% peak205,225 · 37.7% peak132,676 · 24.4% peak132,676 · 24.4% peak108,325 · 19.9% peak108,325 · 19.9% peak62,795 · 11.5% peak62,795 · 11.5% peak77,588 · 14.3% peak77,588 · 14.3% peak178,474 · 32.8% peak178,474 · 32.8% peak55,186 · 10.1% peak55,186 · 10.1% peak39,624 · 7.3% peak39,624 · 7.3% peak64,932 · 11.9% peak64,932 · 11.9% peak48,070 · 8.8% peak48,070 · 8.8% peak400,248 · 73.6% peak400,248 · 73.6% peak96,423 · 17.7% peak96,423 · 17.7% peak107,127 · 19.7% peak107,127 · 19.7% peak184,235 · 33.9% peak184,235 · 33.9% peak198,543 · 36.5% peak198,543 · 36.5% peak174,365 · 32.0% peak174,365 · 32.0% peak185,633 · 34.1% peak185,633 · 34.1% peak340,910 · 62.7% peak340,910 · 62.7% peak65,713 · 12.1% peak65,713 · 12.1% peak544,129544,129 · 100.0% peak544,129 · 100.0% peak115,894 · 21.3% peak115,894 · 21.3% peak330,609 · 60.8% peak330,609 · 60.8% peak156,313 · 28.7% peak156,313 · 28.7% peak76,886 · 14.1% peak76,886 · 14.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4051064 · peak 544129 · CV 0.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0090 · skew=0.14 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.88 (mesokurtic)54310 5-121.38bpbin -121.38bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -121.38bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-93.35bpbin -93.35bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -93.35bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-65.32bpbin -65.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -65.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-37.30bpbin -37.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -37.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-9.27bpbin -9.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -9.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 318.76bpbin 18.76bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 18.76bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 446.79bpbin 46.79bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 46.79bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 374.81bpbin 74.81bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 74.81bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1102.84bpbin 102.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 102.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak130.87bp 1158.90bpbin 158.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 158.90bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1186.92bpbin 186.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 186.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.16 · kurt=-0.74 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0203
Mid price
$0.0203
24h change
-0.47%
Mark–mid spread
1.48 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0204

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0202$95% CI: [0.0201$, 0.0203$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.60%
med MEDIAN0.0202$Q₁ 0.0200$ · Q₃ 0.0204$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0011$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0196$Q₁ 0.0200$med 0.0202$Q₃ 0.0204$max 0.0207$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.153approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.921mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.55
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-0.59
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.005934%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.006
σᵣ STD / h0.941660%σ²ᵣ = 0.887×10⁻⁴ · CV = 158.69×
σ ANNUALISED88.13%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.942%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-0.59negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-0.55downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-9.39drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.17approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.62mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.93
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -9.39
EXPECTED EDGE-51.98%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.32%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.315%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.346%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.337%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.54%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.315%VaR₉₉−1.346%ES₉₅−1.337%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK2.07$
−5.54% drawdown over 13h
1.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.86% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.720 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0207
Bollinger MA
$0.0201
Bollinger lower
$0.0195

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.135within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.110lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.924strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.351significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.924
H = 0.924STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.135k=2+0.110k=3-0.081k=4-0.094k=5+0.2420+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.35)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.98very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.35)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$79.83k
Open interest (USD)
$341.80k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.23x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-0.669× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.335× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.167×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.01% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.77%MILD BEARISH -0.14%BEST+2.01%05hWORST-1.35%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.49%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.47% · Σ +3.76%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.30% · Σ -2.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.14%+1.74%-3.96%0.17% · 12h0.17% · 12h0.17%12h1.57% · 13h1.57% · 13h1.57%13h-0.66% · 14h-0.66% · 14h-0.66%14h0.46% · 15h0.46% · 15h0.46%15h-1.05% · 16h-1.05% · 16h-1.05%16h0.77% · 17h0.77% · 17h0.77%17h-1.08% · 18h-1.08% · 18h-1.08%18h-1.22% · 19h-1.22% · 19h-1.22%19h0.59% · 20h0.59% · 20h0.59%20h-1.28% · 21h-1.28% · 21h-1.28%21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h0.36% · 23h0.36% · 23h0.36%23h-1.32% · 00h-1.32% · 00h-1.32%00h-0.41% · 01h-0.41% · 01h-0.41%01h-1.35% · 02h-1.35% · 02h-1.35%02h▼ WORST0.23% · 03h0.23% · 03h0.23%03h0.13% · 04h0.13% · 04h0.13%04h2.01% · 05h2.01% · 05h2.01%05h★ BEST0.04% · 06h0.04% · 06h0.04%06h-0.82% · 07h-0.82% · 07h-0.82%07h0.66% · 08h0.66% · 08h0.66%08h0.67% · 09h0.67% · 09h0.67%09h1.06% · 10h1.06% · 10h1.06%10h-0.16% · 11h-0.16% · 11h-0.16%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.76%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.01% · worst -1.35% · typical |Δ| 0.773%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.24%)FINAL-0.24%MAX DD-5.59%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.74%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9976 · peak 1.0174 · range [0.9605, 1.0174]1.01740.9605break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0174UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.59% · significant0%-5.59%▼ TROUGH -5.59%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.59%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.59%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9976 (-0.24%) · max DD -5.59% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-10.90 · σ=36.74MIXED EDGELAST 33.01 (+1.20σ vs μ)63.5531.780.00-31.78-63.55μ = -10.9020.6020.600.210.21-50.07-50.07-24.99-24.99-53.45-53.45-26.89-26.89-36.16-36.16-38.51-38.51-27.82-27.82-63.55-63.55-37.07-37.07-47.49-47.49-8.89-8.899.239.233.283.2837.6037.6044.6544.6559.2659.2633.0133.01v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 33.010 · range [-63.55, 59.26] · μ -10.898 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=88.9919 · σ=12.2433 · range [63.9259, 116.6564] · R²=0.009▼ FALLING -28.57%σ HIGH 13.76%LAST 63.9259116.6564103.473890.291277.108663.9259μ = 88.9919max 116.6564min 63.9259dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 63.93% · range [63.93%, 116.66%] · μ 88.99% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.280 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.012 (+1.13σ vs μ)0.5820.2910.000-0.291-0.582μ = -0.280-0.543-0.543-0.582-0.582-0.470-0.470-0.499-0.499-0.573-0.573-0.515-0.515-0.295-0.295-0.537-0.537-0.433-0.433-0.188-0.188-0.153-0.153-0.314-0.3140.1130.1130.0790.079-0.013-0.013-0.196-0.196-0.191-0.191-0.008-0.008-0.012-0.012v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.012 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4987
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7793
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6672
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4338
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5649
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4810
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0459
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3231
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7466
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.902 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.85e-5 · top T=2.40h (33.4%) · top-3 cover 58.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.6e-42.7e-41.8e-48.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.42e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.42e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.64e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.64e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.18e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.18e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.53e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.53e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.87e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.75e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.75e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.55e-4 · 33.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.55e-4 · 33.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.48e-5 · 8.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=24.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 33.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.062e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-21.08×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -28.02400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -28.02
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -29.45σ ann 140% · Sortino -17.09 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3534%-2794%-2054%-1313%-573%168%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)139.7%Ann. vol σ-2945.3%Sharpe (ann)-1709.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0190.0200.0200.0210.0220.022t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:39:14 UTC
Snapshot age
5.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:39:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
521035a3b55a7ebb73449b2949ed912a038fa3b9d1ad4771e409bc092693169b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,671HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.82HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.18K
bid $645 · ask $539
Depth within 10bp
$4.21K
bid $2.27K · ask $1.94K
Depth within 50bp
$36.57K
bid $19.21K · ask $17.36K
Mid price
0.020324
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.016
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.005
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-merl/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0203355.37bp0.0203403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02035615.53bp0.0203789FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02039936.71bp0.02047320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0203154.50bp0.0203103FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02029514.54bp0.02027610FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02026230.61bp0.02019820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-merl/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.05M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-merl/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.271 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.51M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.44M
real volume
Net delta
$1.07M
buyers net
Imbalance
27.10%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
27.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-merl/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.22% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.020695→0.0200283.223%5
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z4.0h0.020200→0.0195873.035%5
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.020735→0.0204781.239%1

/api/asset/hl-merl/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
139.70%
σ per bar = 0.000609
Mean return (annualised)
-4114.63%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.63%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 2059 bars

/api/asset/hl-merl/risk · same metrics, JSON