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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEME

MEME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-meme · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.43%
realized vol (ann.)
121.38%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
-102.98
ulcer index
1.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.95%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-12047.85
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.44%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.60
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-8687.44
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.60
upside/downside
roll spread
2.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
610
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.43%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change +2.43%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-meme/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
2.43%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MEME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0006] · R²=0.449▲ RISING +2.61%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0006min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=133,226,576 · μ=5329063.0 · σ=4994892.7 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1705,306,63910,613,27715,919,91621,226,554μ = 532906321,226,55450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 21226554 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
$mark $
$0.0005
$mid $
$0.0005
◉prev-day close
$0.0005
Δ24h Δ %
+2.430%
$24h vol $
$68.86k
◐open interest $
$379.96k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0006] · R²=0.449▲ RISING +2.61%σ NORMAL 1.44%LAST 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0006min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0005 · 24h 2.43% · range $[0.0005, 0.0006]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0005, 0.0006] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=68%BULLISH +1.66%CLOSE 0.0006 vs OPEN 0.0005 (+1.66%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00060.00060.00060.00060.00050.0005μ close = 0.0005O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.12%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.30%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+1.30%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.73%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.73%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.37%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.09%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.09%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.55%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.56%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.92%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.23%)3.1%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.09%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+3.09%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-2.65%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-2.65%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.18%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.25%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.54%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=133,226,576 · μ=5329063.0 · σ=4994892.7 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1705,306,63910,613,27715,919,91621,226,554μ = 53290637,916,331 · 37.3% peak7,916,331 · 37.3% peak13,453,437 · 63.4% peak13,453,437 · 63.4% peak4,857,513 · 22.9% peak4,857,513 · 22.9% peak2,717,152 · 12.8% peak2,717,152 · 12.8% peak696,030 · 3.3% peak696,030 · 3.3% peak6,591,884 · 31.1% peak6,591,884 · 31.1% peak4,815,125 · 22.7% peak4,815,125 · 22.7% peak2,677,528 · 12.6% peak2,677,528 · 12.6% peak9,581,100 · 45.1% peak9,581,100 · 45.1% peak4,280,866 · 20.2% peak4,280,866 · 20.2% peak1,175,269 · 5.5% peak1,175,269 · 5.5% peak1,547,602 · 7.3% peak1,547,602 · 7.3% peak796,953 · 3.8% peak796,953 · 3.8% peak1,046,327 · 4.9% peak1,046,327 · 4.9% peak725,616 · 3.4% peak725,616 · 3.4% peak3,426,833 · 16.1% peak3,426,833 · 16.1% peak8,352,088 · 39.3% peak8,352,088 · 39.3% peak21,226,55421,226,554 · 100.0% peak21,226,554 · 100.0% peak14,308,333 · 67.4% peak14,308,333 · 67.4% peak4,196,940 · 19.8% peak4,196,940 · 19.8% peak2,761,507 · 13.0% peak2,761,507 · 13.0% peak2,165,749 · 10.2% peak2,165,749 · 10.2% peak7,471,579 · 35.2% peak7,471,579 · 35.2% peak3,655,999 · 17.2% peak3,655,999 · 17.2% peak2,782,261 · 13.1% peak2,782,261 · 13.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 133226576 · peak 21226554 · CV 0.94

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0113 · skew=0.28 (symmetric) · kurt=0.74 (mesokurtic)75420 1-261.17bpbin -261.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -261.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-212.03bp-162.90bp 3-113.77bpbin -113.77bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -113.77bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 4-64.63bpbin -64.63bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -64.63bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 4-15.50bpbin -15.50bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -15.50bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 733.63bpbin 33.63bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 33.63bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 182.77bpbin 82.77bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 82.77bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2131.90bpbin 131.90bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 131.90bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak181.03bp 1230.17bpbin 230.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 230.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1279.30bpbin 279.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 279.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.22 · kurt=1.07 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0005
Mid price
$0.0005
24h change
+2.43%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0005

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.64)
μ MEAN0.0005$95% CI: [0.0005$, 0.0005$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.44%
med MEDIAN0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$ · Q₃ 0.0006$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$med 0.0005$Q₃ 0.0006$max 0.0006$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.641right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.052mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.96
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.20
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.35
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.107434%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.089
σᵣ STD / h1.204767%σ²ᵣ = 1.451×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.21×
σ ANNUALISED112.76%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.205%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.35excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.60strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.24approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.63leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.15
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+941.12%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.09%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.093%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.452%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.976%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.17%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.093%VaR₉₉−2.452%ES₉₅−1.976%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.06$
−3.17% drawdown over 7h
0.06$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.81× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.541 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0006
Bollinger MA
$0.0005
Bollinger lower
$0.0005

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.152within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.293lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.833strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.333significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.833
H = 0.833STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.152k=2-0.293k=3-0.027k=4+0.053k=5+0.1210+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.33)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.33)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$68.86k
Open interest (USD)
$379.96k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.18x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.402× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.701× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.850×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.04% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.90%MILD BULLISH +2.58%BEST+3.04%00hWORST-2.86%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.90%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.58%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.18%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.28% · Σ +2.21%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.58%+5.80%-0.19%0.37% · 08h0.37% · 08h0.37%08h-0.56% · 09h-0.56% · 09h-0.56%09h1.30% · 10h1.30% · 10h1.30%10h-0.37% · 11h-0.37% · 11h-0.37%11h1.29% · 12h1.29% · 12h1.29%12h0.73% · 13h0.73% · 13h0.73%13h-1.09% · 14h-1.09% · 14h-1.09%14h0.55% · 15h0.55% · 15h0.55%15h-0.92% · 16h-0.92% · 16h-0.92%16h0.55% · 17h0.55% · 17h0.55%17h-0.55% · 18h-0.55% · 18h-0.55%18h-0.55% · 19h-0.55% · 19h-0.55%19h0.55% · 20h0.55% · 20h0.55%20h-0.74% · 21h-0.74% · 21h-0.74%21h-0.19% · 22h-0.19% · 22h-0.19%22h2.39% · 23h2.39% · 23h2.39%23h3.04% · 00h3.04% · 00h3.04%00h★ BEST-2.86% · 01h-2.86% · 01h-2.86%01h▼ WORST-0.18% · 02h-0.18% · 02h-0.18%02h0.54% · 03h0.54% · 03h0.54%03h0.54% · 04h0.54% · 04h0.54%04h0.18% · 05h0.18% · 05h0.18%05h-1.08% · 06h-1.08% · 06h-1.08%06h-0.36% · 07h-0.36% · 07h-0.36%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.21%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 3.04% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.895%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.44%FINAL+2.44%MAX DD-3.22%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.85%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0244 · peak 1.0585 · range [0.9981, 1.0585]1.05850.9981break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0585UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.22% · moderate0%-3.22%▼ TROUGH -3.22%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -3.22%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.38%bar 8-17 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.56%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.22%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0244 (2.44%) · max DD -3.22% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=5.22 · σ=27.76MIXED EDGELAST -9.11 (-0.52σ vs μ)53.8426.920.00-26.92-53.84μ = 5.2253.8453.8419.6819.6839.2439.242.982.9817.9117.91-13.91-13.91-43.82-43.82-8.38-8.38-39.39-39.39-25.05-25.0511.9711.9743.9743.9715.9215.9210.5610.5620.3220.3225.9825.9810.4410.44-33.94-33.94-9.11-9.11v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -9.113 · range [-43.82, 53.84] · μ 5.221 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=114.6558 · σ=54.4398 · range [53.9212, 202.2867] · R²=0.289▼ FALLING -22.31%σ EXTREME 47.48%LAST 58.1510202.2867165.1954128.104091.012653.9212μ = 114.6558max 202.2867min 53.9212dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.15% · range [53.92%, 202.29%] · μ 114.66% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.291 · σ=0.323MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.258 (+1.70σ vs μ)0.8370.4190.000-0.419-0.837μ = -0.291-0.603-0.603-0.424-0.424-0.395-0.395-0.319-0.319-0.295-0.295-0.837-0.837-0.716-0.716-0.601-0.601-0.603-0.603-0.482-0.482-0.085-0.0850.3260.326-0.169-0.169-0.079-0.079-0.124-0.124-0.063-0.063-0.422-0.4220.1050.1050.2580.258v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.258 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.8691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2382
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.6566
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6022
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1412
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2454
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2130
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.621 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.41e-4 · top T=4.00h (16.8%) · top-3 cover 42.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.9e-42.1e-41.4e-47.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.11e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.75e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.75e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.14e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.14e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.85e-4 · 16.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.85e-4 · 16.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.00e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.00e-4 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.41e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.41e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.06e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.06e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.15e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.15e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.36e-5 · 3.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 16.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.696e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4726 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.92× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.28%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.28%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.92×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.7×1.3×2.0×2.6×3.3×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe -6.14400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4725 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -6.14
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -5.89σ ann 642% · Sortino -2.08 · n 4725 · ⚠ capped (n=4725 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-806%-412%-17%377%771%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)642.5%Ann. vol σ-589.5%Sharpe (ann)-207.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4725t-3938t-3150t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e8eb188aee631b21709533f6d78cc03e924f87b53f81c34befe04b7aa353fa45 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$12.05K
bid $3.52K · ask $8.53K
Depth within 50bp
$34.23K
bid $16.03K · ask $18.20K
Mid price
0.000548
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
18.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.017
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.011
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0005499.12bp0.0005491FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00054911.79bp0.0005502FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000560208.47bp0.00059720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0005489.12bp0.0005481FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00054720.94bp0.0005472FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000539172.74bp0.00051720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-meme/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$133.23M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-meme/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.299 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$81.36M
real volume
Sell weight
$43.95M
real volume
Net delta
$37.41M
buyers net
Imbalance
29.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-meme/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.99% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 01:00:00Z2.0h0.000568→0.0005512.993%3
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.000548→0.0005381.825%5
#32026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.000551→0.0005431.452%3

/api/asset/hl-meme/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,726 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
642.47%
σ per bar = 0.002804
Mean return (annualised)
-3787.09%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.59%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 4351 bars

/api/asset/hl-meme/risk · same metrics, JSON