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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

LINEA

LINEA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-linea · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.98%
realized vol (ann.)
54.92%
max drawdown
0.61%
sharpe
-25.34
ulcer index
0.26%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.21%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5321.83
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.51%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2703.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
613
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.98%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-linea/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH146ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.002
24h Δ · live
0.98%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
LINEA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0024 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0024, 0.0025] · R²=0.411▲ RISING +0.98%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 0.00250.00250.00250.00240.00240.0024μ = 0.0024max 0.0025min 0.0024dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=33,543,780 · μ=1341751.2 · σ=700180.4 · CV=0.52STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140821,1511,642,3022,463,4533,284,604μ = 13417513,284,60450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3284604 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
146ms
$mark $
$0.0025
$mid $
$0.0025
◉prev-day close
$0.0024
Δ24h Δ %
+0.983%
$24h vol $
$79.23k
◐open interest $
$1.51M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0024 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0024, 0.0025] · R²=0.411▲ RISING +0.98%σ LOW 0.61%LAST 0.00250.00250.00250.00240.00240.0024μ = 0.0024max 0.0025min 0.0024dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0025 · 24h 0.98% · range $[0.0024, 0.0025]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0024, 0.0025] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +0.49%CLOSE 0.0025 vs OPEN 0.0025 (+0.49%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00250.00250.00250.00240.00240.0024μ close = 0.0024O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.12%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.12%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-1.02%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-1.02%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.37%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.37%)1.6%O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.62%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+1.62%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.29%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.70%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.70%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.49%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.20%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.12%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.12%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.45%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.08%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.65%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.65%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.41%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.41%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.36%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.36%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.52%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (-0.52%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=33,543,780 · μ=1341751.2 · σ=700180.4 · CV=0.52STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140821,1511,642,3022,463,4533,284,604μ = 13417511,163,463 · 35.4% peak1,163,463 · 35.4% peak1,013,028 · 30.8% peak1,013,028 · 30.8% peak2,436,407 · 74.2% peak2,436,407 · 74.2% peak686,954 · 20.9% peak686,954 · 20.9% peak1,393,214 · 42.4% peak1,393,214 · 42.4% peak1,774,652 · 54.0% peak1,774,652 · 54.0% peak1,261,758 · 38.4% peak1,261,758 · 38.4% peak1,414,592 · 43.1% peak1,414,592 · 43.1% peak1,424,113 · 43.4% peak1,424,113 · 43.4% peak765,183 · 23.3% peak765,183 · 23.3% peak974,634 · 29.7% peak974,634 · 29.7% peak782,368 · 23.8% peak782,368 · 23.8% peak972,725 · 29.6% peak972,725 · 29.6% peak1,041,511 · 31.7% peak1,041,511 · 31.7% peak735,976 · 22.4% peak735,976 · 22.4% peak904,070 · 27.5% peak904,070 · 27.5% peak1,220,044 · 37.1% peak1,220,044 · 37.1% peak2,672,455 · 81.4% peak2,672,455 · 81.4% peak2,585,758 · 78.7% peak2,585,758 · 78.7% peak3,284,6043,284,604 · 100.0% peak3,284,604 · 100.0% peak891,776 · 27.2% peak891,776 · 27.2% peak644,306 · 19.6% peak644,306 · 19.6% peak1,610,463 · 49.0% peak1,610,463 · 49.0% peak800,451 · 24.4% peak800,451 · 24.4% peak1,089,275 · 33.2% peak1,089,275 · 33.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 33543780 · peak 3284604 · CV 0.52

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0053 · skew=1.12 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.98 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-90.93bpbin -90.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -90.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-66.91bp 6-42.89bpbin -42.89bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -42.89bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 5-18.87bpbin -18.87bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -18.87bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 35.15bpbin 5.15bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 5.15bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 429.17bpbin 29.17bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 29.17bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 353.19bpbin 53.19bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 53.19bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 177.21bpbin 77.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 77.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak101.23bp125.25bp149.27bp 1173.29bpbin 173.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 173.29bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.14 · kurt=2.72 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0025
Mid price
$0.0025
24h change
+0.98%
Mark–mid spread
4.06 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0024

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.57)
μ MEAN0.0024$95% CI: [0.0024$, 0.0025$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.61%
med MEDIAN0.0024$Q₁ 0.0024$ · Q₃ 0.0025$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0024$Q₁ 0.0024$med 0.0024$Q₃ 0.0025$max 0.0025$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.568left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.099leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.55
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.77
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.040767%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.072
σᵣ STD / h0.563708%σ²ᵣ = 0.318×10⁻⁴ · CV = 13.83×
σ ANNUALISED52.76%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.564%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.77excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.01strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.22right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.68leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.33
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+357.12%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.53%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.530%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.915%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.780%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.55%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.530%VaR₉₉−0.915%ES₉₅−0.780%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK0.24$
−1.55% drawdown over 4h
0.24$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.47× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.73× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.761 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0025
Bollinger MA
$0.0024
Bollinger lower
$0.0024

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.171within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.181lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.844strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.007significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.844
H = 0.844STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.171k=2-0.181k=3-0.206k=4-0.004k=5-0.0280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.01)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.01)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$79.23k
Open interest (USD)
$1.51M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.85% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.41%MILD BULLISH +0.98%BEST+1.85%13hWORST-1.03%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.98%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.37%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.41%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.98%+1.50%-1.44%0.12% · 08h0.12% · 08h0.12%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h-0.12% · 10h-0.12% · 10h-0.12%10h-1.03% · 11h-1.03% · 11h-1.03%11h▼ WORST-0.41% · 12h-0.41% · 12h-0.41%12h1.85% · 13h1.85% · 13h1.85%13h★ BEST-0.37% · 14h-0.37% · 14h-0.37%14h0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-0.33% · 16h-0.33% · 16h-0.33%16h0.53% · 17h0.53% · 17h0.53%17h-0.53% · 18h-0.53% · 18h-0.53%18h-0.29% · 19h-0.29% · 19h-0.29%19h0.41% · 20h0.41% · 20h0.41%20h-0.12% · 21h-0.12% · 21h-0.12%21h0.29% · 22h0.29% · 22h0.29%22h0.45% · 23h0.45% · 23h0.45%23h-0.08% · 00h-0.08% · 00h-0.08%00h-0.20% · 01h-0.20% · 01h-0.20%01h-0.37% · 02h-0.37% · 02h-0.37%02h-0.04% · 03h-0.04% · 03h-0.04%03h0.65% · 04h0.65% · 04h0.65%04h0.45% · 05h0.45% · 05h0.45%05h0.32% · 06h0.32% · 06h0.32%06h-0.53% · 07h-0.53% · 07h-0.53%07hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.85% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.409%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.95%FINAL+0.95%MAX DD-1.56%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.48%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0095 · peak 1.0148 · range [0.9856, 1.0148]1.01480.9856break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0148UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.56% · moderate0%-1.56%▼ TROUGH -1.56%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -1.56%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -0.82%bar 12-16 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.69%bar 18-22 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.56%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0095 (0.95%) · max DD -1.56% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=10.71 · σ=16.14PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 16.20 (+0.34σ vs μ)39.4819.740.00-19.74-39.48μ = 10.716.606.60-1.30-1.303.863.860.640.6428.6228.6225.9725.97-23.77-23.774.234.23-11.90-11.9010.5410.547.827.8232.7532.7539.4839.48-2.06-2.062.092.0916.0516.0515.9915.9931.6331.6316.2016.20v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 16.203 · range [-23.77, 39.48] · μ 10.707 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.8325 · σ=25.8061 · range [27.2389, 93.7313] · R²=0.667▼ FALLING -51.37%σ EXTREME 48.85%LAST 43.973593.731377.108260.485143.862027.2389μ = 52.8325max 93.7313min 27.2389dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.97% · range [27.24%, 93.73%] · μ 52.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.116 · σ=0.364CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.122 (+0.65σ vs μ)0.6090.3040.000-0.304-0.609μ = -0.116-0.024-0.024-0.185-0.185-0.208-0.208-0.251-0.251-0.609-0.609-0.368-0.368-0.587-0.587-0.503-0.503-0.509-0.509-0.345-0.3450.0810.081-0.484-0.484-0.135-0.1350.3140.3140.4270.4270.1090.1090.4650.4650.4850.4850.1220.122v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.122 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.5288
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0111
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2449
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1956
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2337
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2979
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0142
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.691 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.10e-5 · top T=8.00h (16.7%) · top-3 cover 49.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.2e-54.7e-53.1e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.57e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.57e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.11e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.11e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.23e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.23e-5 · 16.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.45e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.45e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.85e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.85e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.98e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.98e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.77e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.77e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.23e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.23e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.08e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.08e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.92e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.92e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.37e-5 · 3.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 16.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.723e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4729 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.14× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.14× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.19%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.19%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.14×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.07×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.04×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.3×0.5×0.8×1.1×1.3×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.14400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4728 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.14
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 271% · APY -100% · Sharpe 0.62σ ann 440% · Sortino 0.43 · n 4728
-120%10%139%269%398%528%270.6%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)439.8%Ann. vol σ61.5%Sharpe (ann)42.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0020.0020.0020.0030.0030.003t-4728t-3940t-3152t-2364t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
Snapshot age
146ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b850d7bf94d656e9190a4a0e57e87e64849e0ada620e12f1f9386142f848e113 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.73K
bid $1.49K · ask $247
Depth within 10bp
$4.77K
bid $2.83K · ask $1.94K
Depth within 50bp
$31.41K
bid $14.42K · ask $16.99K
Mid price
0.002466
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.144
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.137
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-linea/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0024687.11bp0.0024682FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00247015.93bp0.0024737FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00247850.34bp0.00250520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0024654.06bp0.0024651FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00246217.28bp0.0024588FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00245545.82bp0.00243220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-linea/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$33.54M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-linea/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.177 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$13.33M
real volume
Sell weight
$19.05M
real volume
Net delta
$5.72M
sellers net
Imbalance
-17.66%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-linea/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.55% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 11:00:00Z1.0h0.002444→0.0024061.555%2
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h0.002455→0.0024350.815%2
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.002460→0.0024430.691%2

/api/asset/hl-linea/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,729 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
439.80%
σ per bar = 0.001919
Mean return (annualised)
270.61%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.19%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3990 bars

/api/asset/hl-linea/risk · same metrics, JSON