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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GOAT

GOAT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-goat · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.60%
realized vol (ann.)
66.32%
max drawdown
0.62%
sharpe
50.86
ulcer index
0.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
15228.60
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
5876.77
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.15
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
614
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.60%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 15.9bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-goat/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH132ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
0.60%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
GOAT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0131, 0.0134] · R²=0.077▲ RISING +0.55%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.01320.01340.01330.01320.01310.0131μ = 0.0132max 0.0134min 0.0131dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,586,068 · μ=583442.7 · σ=289486.2 · CV=0.50RISING +34% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140422,190844,3811,266,5711,688,761μ = 5834431,688,76150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1688761 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
132ms
$mark $
$0.0132
$mid $
$0.0132
◉prev-day close
$0.0132
Δ24h Δ %
+0.600%
$24h vol $
$188.24k
◐open interest $
$249.87k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0131, 0.0134] · R²=0.077▲ RISING +0.55%σ LOW 0.63%LAST 0.01320.01340.01330.01320.01310.0131μ = 0.0132max 0.0134min 0.0131dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0132 · 24h 0.60% · range $[0.0131, 0.0134]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0130, 0.0134] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=54%BULLISH +0.21%CLOSE 0.0132 vs OPEN 0.0132 (+0.21%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01320.01340.01330.01320.01310.0130μ close = 0.0132O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.33%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.33%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.56%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.56%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.25%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.01%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.01%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.47%)0.9%O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.37%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.37%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.17%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.17%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.60%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.69%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.69%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.76%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.76%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.43%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.43%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.83%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.83%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.06%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.06%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.33%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.33%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.20%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.20%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.17%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.17%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.74%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.74%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.49%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.49%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.95%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.95%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.65%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.65%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,586,068 · μ=583442.7 · σ=289486.2 · CV=0.50RISING +34% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140422,190844,3811,266,5711,688,761μ = 583443323,356 · 19.1% peak323,356 · 19.1% peak707,790 · 41.9% peak707,790 · 41.9% peak677,653 · 40.1% peak677,653 · 40.1% peak363,819 · 21.5% peak363,819 · 21.5% peak595,374 · 35.3% peak595,374 · 35.3% peak550,654 · 32.6% peak550,654 · 32.6% peak359,320 · 21.3% peak359,320 · 21.3% peak521,084 · 30.9% peak521,084 · 30.9% peak563,643 · 33.4% peak563,643 · 33.4% peak628,486 · 37.2% peak628,486 · 37.2% peak584,029 · 34.6% peak584,029 · 34.6% peak363,489 · 21.5% peak363,489 · 21.5% peak906,516 · 53.7% peak906,516 · 53.7% peak598,113 · 35.4% peak598,113 · 35.4% peak375,532 · 22.2% peak375,532 · 22.2% peak333,762 · 19.8% peak333,762 · 19.8% peak610,746 · 36.2% peak610,746 · 36.2% peak701,095 · 41.5% peak701,095 · 41.5% peak342,995 · 20.3% peak342,995 · 20.3% peak389,975 · 23.1% peak389,975 · 23.1% peak398,633 · 23.6% peak398,633 · 23.6% peak846,909 · 50.1% peak846,909 · 50.1% peak1,688,7611,688,761 · 100.0% peak1,688,761 · 100.0% peak332,697 · 19.7% peak332,697 · 19.7% peak821,637 · 48.7% peak821,637 · 48.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14586068 · peak 1688761 · CV 0.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0054 · skew=-0.02 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.27 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 4-75.20bpbin -75.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -75.20bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 1-59.83bpbin -59.83bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -59.83bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-44.46bpbin -44.46bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -44.46bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-29.10bpbin -29.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -29.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-13.73bpbin -13.73bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -13.73bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 21.64bpbin 1.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 1.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 317.00bpbin 17.00bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 17.00bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 232.37bpbin 32.37bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 32.37bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 247.74bpbin 47.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 47.74bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 263.11bpbin 63.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 63.11bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 278.47bpbin 78.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 78.47bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 193.84bpbin 93.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 93.84bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.03 · kurt=-1.21 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0132
Mid price
$0.0132
24h change
+0.60%
Mark–mid spread
0.76 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0132

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0132$95% CI: [0.0132$, 0.0132$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.63%
med MEDIAN0.0132$Q₁ 0.0131$ · Q₃ 0.0132$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0131$Q₁ 0.0131$med 0.0132$Q₃ 0.0132$max 0.0134$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.120approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.814mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.17
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.78
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.82
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.022724%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.041
σᵣ STD / h0.556684%σ²ᵣ = 0.310×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.50×
σ ANNUALISED52.10%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.557%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.82excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)3.86strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)85.27exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.03approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.20platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.01
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 85.27
EXPECTED EDGE+199.06%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.730%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.807%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.782%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.33%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.730%VaR₉₉−0.807%ES₉₅−0.782%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK1.34$
−2.33% drawdown over 13h
1.31$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.39% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.587 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0134
Bollinger MA
$0.0132
Bollinger lower
$0.0130

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.150within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.096lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.965strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.389fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.965
H = 0.965STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.150k=2-0.096k=3-0.111k=4-0.093k=5+0.2670+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$188.24k
Open interest (USD)
$249.87k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.75x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.333× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.666× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.833×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.02% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +0.55%BEST+1.02%13hWORST-0.83%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.55%+1.50%-0.86%0.49% · 08h0.49% · 08h0.49%08h-0.14% · 09h-0.14% · 09h-0.14%09h-0.03% · 10h-0.03% · 10h-0.03%10h-0.46% · 11h-0.46% · 11h-0.46%11h0.63% · 12h0.63% · 12h0.63%12h1.02% · 13h1.02% · 13h1.02%13h★ BEST-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.14% · 15h0.14% · 15h0.14%15h-0.44% · 16h-0.44% · 16h-0.44%16h0.58% · 17h0.58% · 17h0.58%17h-0.70% · 18h-0.70% · 18h-0.70%18h-0.74% · 19h-0.74% · 19h-0.74%19h0.46% · 20h0.46% · 20h0.46%20h-0.83% · 21h-0.83% · 21h-0.83%21h▼ WORST0.09% · 22h0.09% · 22h0.09%22h0.36% · 23h0.36% · 23h0.36%23h0.19% · 00h0.19% · 00h0.19%00h-0.27% · 01h-0.27% · 01h-0.27%01h-0.70% · 02h-0.70% · 02h-0.70%02h0.10% · 03h0.10% · 03h0.10%03h0.72% · 04h0.72% · 04h0.72%04h0.33% · 05h0.33% · 05h0.33%05h0.86% · 06h0.86% · 06h0.86%06h-0.61% · 07h-0.61% · 07h-0.61%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.14%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.02% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.475%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.51%FINAL+0.51%MAX DD-2.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.50%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0051 · peak 1.0150 · range [0.9912, 1.0150]1.01500.9912break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0150UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.35% · moderate0%-2.35%▼ TROUGH -2.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.35%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.64%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0051 (0.51%) · max DD -2.35% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-2.13 · σ=26.97MIXED EDGELAST 16.70 (+0.70σ vs μ)49.3424.670.00-24.67-49.34μ = -2.1342.3042.3012.8712.8720.5220.529.129.1235.9735.972.072.07-49.34-49.34-18.48-18.48-41.07-41.07-27.45-27.45-35.49-35.49-12.82-12.82-0.00-0.00-37.09-37.09-9.60-9.6012.4012.4011.7111.7127.2927.2916.7016.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 16.703 · range [-49.34, 42.30] · μ -2.126 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.4680 · σ=7.0986 · range [36.0347, 63.8179] · R²=0.149▲ RISING +19.02%σ HIGH 13.28%LAST 61.625263.817956.872149.926342.980536.0347μ = 53.4680max 63.8179min 36.0347dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 61.63% · range [36.03%, 63.82%] · μ 53.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.152 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.113 (+0.13σ vs μ)0.5610.2810.000-0.281-0.561μ = -0.1520.1530.153-0.133-0.133-0.181-0.181-0.183-0.183-0.195-0.195-0.561-0.561-0.346-0.346-0.417-0.417-0.529-0.529-0.517-0.517-0.301-0.301-0.443-0.443-0.358-0.3580.1650.1650.2060.2060.2020.2020.3180.3180.3460.346-0.113-0.113v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.113 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4505
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4842
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8473
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5738
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2906
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2996
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7632
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4453
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.768 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.01e-5 · top T=2.40h (25.2%) · top-3 cover 50.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.1e-56.8e-54.6e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.57e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.57e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.88e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.55e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.97e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.97e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.48e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.48e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.13e-5 · 25.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.13e-5 · 25.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.44e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.44e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 2.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 25.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.617e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4730 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.65× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.63× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.15%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.15%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.65×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.63×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.33×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.66×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.5×3.0×4.6×6.1×7.6×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.66× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 7.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.66× · bootstrap from 4729 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.90
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.10%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 9.35σ ann 355% · Sortino 7.46 · n 4729 · ⚠ capped (n=4729 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)355.0%Ann. vol σ935.2%Sharpe (ann)746.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0130.0130.0140.0150.015t-4729t-3941t-3153t-2365t-1576t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:57:01 UTC
Snapshot age
132ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:57:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
340e5a035c07cd360982eb60ca06bd50a0fa901e2c26e22725261863622b2c3e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.13HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.02K
bid $1.52K · ask $1.50K
Depth within 10bp
$4.41K
bid $2.91K · ask $1.50K
Depth within 50bp
$16.09K
bid $7.48K · ask $8.61K
Mid price
0.013236
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.134
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.134
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-goat/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0132382.27bp0.0132403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01327630.53bp0.01330912FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01336093.75bp0.01346820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0132322.81bp0.0132303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01319729.43bp0.01315013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01311491.56bp0.01298320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-goat/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.59M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-goat/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.161 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$8.28M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.99M
real volume
Net delta
$2.29M
buyers net
Imbalance
16.05%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-goat/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.013335→0.0130971.785%5
#22026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.013181→0.0130530.971%2
#32026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms0.013365→0.0132580.801%1

/api/asset/hl-goat/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,730 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
355.03%
σ per bar = 0.001549
Mean return (annualised)
3320.27%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.35
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.52%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3968 bars

/api/asset/hl-goat/risk · same metrics, JSON