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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GMX

GMX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gmx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 10.35%
realized vol (ann.)
73.11%
max drawdown
1.95%
sharpe
-36.88
ulcer index
1.12%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.04%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2403.03
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1472.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
10.35%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 31%
  • 24h change +10.35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gmx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$6.189
24h Δ · live
10.35%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
GMX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.8951 · σ=0.2373 · range [5.6008, 6.2306] · R²=0.904▲ RISING +10.33%σ NORMAL 4.03%LAST 6.17916.23066.07325.91575.75825.6008μ = 5.8951max 6.2306min 5.6008dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.90μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $6.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=49,955 · μ=1998.2 · σ=1677.6 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1601,4672,9334,4005,866μ = 19985,866.2950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 5866 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.1s
$mark $
$6.1892
$mid $
$6.191
◉prev-day close
$5.6088
Δ24h Δ %
+10.348%
$24h vol $
$298.36k
◐open interest $
$341.94k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.8951 · σ=0.2373 · range [5.6008, 6.2306] · R²=0.904▲ RISING +10.33%σ NORMAL 4.03%LAST 6.17916.23066.07325.91575.75825.6008μ = 5.8951max 6.2306min 5.6008dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.90μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $6.1892 · 24h 10.35% · range $[5.6008, 6.2306]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 17 · down 8 (68% up) · range [5.5576, 6.3003] · σ=0.2373 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=41%STRONG BULLISH +10.41%CLOSE 6.1791 vs OPEN 5.5967 (+10.41%)&#9650; CLOSE 6.17916.30036.11465.92905.74335.5576μ close = 5.8951O5.597 H5.619 L5.588 C5.601 (+0.07%)O5.597 H5.619 L5.588 C5.601 (+0.07%)O5.600 H5.609 L5.558 C5.606 (+0.10%)O5.600 H5.609 L5.558 C5.606 (+0.10%)O5.617 H5.675 L5.597 C5.673 (+1.01%)O5.617 H5.675 L5.597 C5.673 (+1.01%)O5.674 H5.689 L5.654 C5.665 (-0.16%)O5.674 H5.689 L5.654 C5.665 (-0.16%)O5.666 H5.682 L5.653 C5.674 (+0.14%)O5.666 H5.682 L5.653 C5.674 (+0.14%)O5.671 H5.704 L5.664 C5.667 (-0.07%)O5.671 H5.704 L5.664 C5.667 (-0.07%)O5.664 H5.700 L5.649 C5.689 (+0.43%)O5.664 H5.700 L5.649 C5.689 (+0.43%)O5.684 H5.690 L5.633 C5.650 (-0.61%)O5.684 H5.690 L5.633 C5.650 (-0.61%)O5.651 H5.665 L5.640 C5.652 (+0.03%)O5.651 H5.665 L5.640 C5.652 (+0.03%)O5.659 H5.686 L5.642 C5.682 (+0.42%)O5.659 H5.686 L5.642 C5.682 (+0.42%)O5.683 H5.692 L5.669 C5.670 (-0.23%)O5.683 H5.692 L5.669 C5.670 (-0.23%)O5.680 H5.815 L5.679 C5.766 (+1.51%)O5.680 H5.815 L5.679 C5.766 (+1.51%)2.6%O5.761 H5.916 L5.746 C5.908 (+2.56%)O5.761 H5.916 L5.746 C5.908 (+2.56%)O5.919 H6.112 L5.897 C6.050 (+2.21%)O5.919 H6.112 L5.897 C6.050 (+2.21%)O6.061 H6.099 L5.962 C5.983 (-1.28%)O6.061 H6.099 L5.962 C5.983 (-1.28%)O5.985 H6.063 L5.962 C6.025 (+0.67%)O5.985 H6.063 L5.962 C6.025 (+0.67%)O6.021 H6.065 L6.000 C6.016 (-0.07%)O6.021 H6.065 L6.000 C6.016 (-0.07%)O6.013 H6.116 L6.003 C6.116 (+1.70%)O6.013 H6.116 L6.003 C6.116 (+1.70%)O6.118 H6.192 L6.109 C6.148 (+0.50%)O6.118 H6.192 L6.109 C6.148 (+0.50%)O6.146 H6.215 L6.126 C6.136 (-0.15%)O6.146 H6.215 L6.126 C6.136 (-0.15%)O6.138 H6.159 L6.091 C6.148 (+0.16%)O6.138 H6.159 L6.091 C6.148 (+0.16%)O6.150 H6.300 L6.150 C6.221 (+1.15%)O6.150 H6.300 L6.150 C6.221 (+1.15%)O6.220 H6.267 L6.214 C6.221 (+0.02%)O6.220 H6.267 L6.214 C6.221 (+0.02%)O6.223 H6.262 L6.209 C6.231 (+0.13%)O6.223 H6.262 L6.209 C6.231 (+0.13%)O6.229 H6.229 L6.179 C6.179 (-0.80%)O6.229 H6.229 L6.179 C6.179 (-0.80%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=49,955 · μ=1998.2 · σ=1677.6 · CV=0.84BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1601,4672,9334,4005,866μ = 1998565.32 · 9.6% peak565.32 · 9.6% peak1,094.04 · 18.6% peak1,094.04 · 18.6% peak1,134.65 · 19.3% peak1,134.65 · 19.3% peak545.43 · 9.3% peak545.43 · 9.3% peak309.19 · 5.3% peak309.19 · 5.3% peak735.64 · 12.5% peak735.64 · 12.5% peak1,276.68 · 21.8% peak1,276.68 · 21.8% peak1,029.07 · 17.5% peak1,029.07 · 17.5% peak457.07 · 7.8% peak457.07 · 7.8% peak583.71 · 10.0% peak583.71 · 10.0% peak480.38 · 8.2% peak480.38 · 8.2% peak2,472.25 · 42.1% peak2,472.25 · 42.1% peak1,345.38 · 22.9% peak1,345.38 · 22.9% peak3,789.9 · 64.6% peak3,789.9 · 64.6% peak5,866.295,866.29 · 100.0% peak5,866.29 · 100.0% peak3,607.11 · 61.5% peak3,607.11 · 61.5% peak971.85 · 16.6% peak971.85 · 16.6% peak2,907.72 · 49.6% peak2,907.72 · 49.6% peak2,613.35 · 44.5% peak2,613.35 · 44.5% peak1,406.29 · 24.0% peak1,406.29 · 24.0% peak1,564.78 · 26.7% peak1,564.78 · 26.7% peak5,195.87 · 88.6% peak5,195.87 · 88.6% peak5,689.07 · 97.0% peak5,689.07 · 97.0% peak2,906.16 · 49.5% peak2,906.16 · 49.5% peak1,408.28 · 24.0% peak1,408.28 · 24.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 49955 · peak 5866 · CV 0.84

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0042 · σ=0.0088 · skew=0.63 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.25 (mesokurtic)65320 2-95.90bpbin -95.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -95.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-66.30bpbin -66.30bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -66.30bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-36.70bpbin -36.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -36.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-7.10bpbin -7.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -7.10bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 422.50bpbin 22.50bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 22.50bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 352.09bpbin 52.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 52.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 181.69bpbin 81.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 81.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2111.29bpbin 111.29bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 111.29bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak140.89bp 2170.49bpbin 170.49bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 170.49bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak200.09bp 2229.69bpbin 229.69bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 229.69bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 16 · negative 8
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.72 · kurt=-0.09 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$6.1892
Mid price
$6.191
24h change
+10.35%
Mark–mid spread
2.91 bps
Prev-day close
$5.6088

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.80)
μ MEAN5.8951$95% CI: [5.8020$, 5.9881$]
σ STD DEV0.2373$σ² = 0.056 · CV = 4.03%
med MEDIAN5.9083$Q₁ 5.6699$ · Q₃ 6.1363$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.6298$ · IQR 0.4664$ (1.349σ→0.3201$)
min 5.6008$Q₁ 5.6699$med 5.9083$Q₃ 6.1363$max 6.2306$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.117approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.796platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=41.42
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.409430%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.443
σᵣ STD / h0.925132%σ²ᵣ = 0.856×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.26×
σ ANNUALISED86.59%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.925%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)41.42excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)68.19strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.77right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.19mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.65
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3586.61%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.81%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.808%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.043%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.969%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.10%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.808%VaR₉₉−1.043%ES₉₅−0.969%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK604.96$
−1.10% drawdown over 1h
598.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.29× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.11% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
76.8 · overbought
Bollinger %B
0.747 · within band
Bollinger upper
$6.4053
Bollinger MA
$5.9579
Bollinger lower
$5.5104

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.079within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.035strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+14.704significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.035
H = 1.035STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.079k=2+0.004k=3-0.272k=4+0.132k=5-0.0510+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=14.70)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=14.70)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$298.36k
Open interest (USD)
$341.94k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.87x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.44% · worst -1.11% · typical |Δ| 0.70%BULLISH SESSION +9.83%BEST+2.44%23hWORST-1.11%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.70%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+9.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +3.97%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.23% · Σ +1.81%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.51% · Σ +4.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +9.83%+10.66%0.00%0.08% · 12h0.08% · 12h0.08%12h1.20% · 13h1.20% · 13h1.20%13h-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h0.16% · 15h0.16% · 15h0.16%15h-0.12% · 16h-0.12% · 16h-0.12%16h0.38% · 17h0.38% · 17h0.38%17h-0.68% · 18h-0.68% · 18h-0.68%18h0.04% · 19h0.04% · 19h0.04%19h0.53% · 20h0.53% · 20h0.53%20h-0.22% · 21h-0.22% · 21h-0.22%21h1.67% · 22h1.67% · 22h1.67%22h2.44% · 23h2.44% · 23h2.44%23h★ BEST2.36% · 00h2.36% · 00h2.36%00h-1.11% · 01h-1.11% · 01h-1.11%01h▼ WORST0.70% · 02h0.70% · 02h0.70%02h-0.15% · 03h-0.15% · 03h-0.15%03h1.64% · 04h1.64% · 04h1.64%04h0.53% · 05h0.53% · 05h0.53%05h-0.20% · 06h-0.20% · 06h-0.20%06h0.18% · 07h0.18% · 07h0.18%07h1.18% · 08h1.18% · 08h1.18%08h0.01% · 09h0.01% · 09h0.01%09h0.15% · 10h0.15% · 10h0.15%10h-0.83% · 11h-0.83% · 11h-0.83%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+4.05%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 1BREADTH67% up · 33% down
16 up bars · 8 down · best 2.44% · worst -1.11% · typical |Δ| 0.697%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +10.20% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+10.20%MAX DD-1.11%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+11.12%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1020 · peak 1.1112 · range [1.0000, 1.1112]1.11121.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1112UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.11% · moderate0%-1.11%▼ TROUGH -1.11%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -1.11%bar 15-17 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -0.83%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.68%bar 8-11 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.11%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.1020 (10.20%) · max DD -1.11% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=43.92 · σ=28.59PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 11.92 (-1.12σ vs μ)90.7145.360.00-45.36-90.71μ = 43.9248.5648.5619.4019.40-15.96-15.9611.1811.18-2.58-2.5833.2733.2749.2849.2890.7190.7161.0961.0963.2963.2964.6064.6064.3764.3750.2150.2123.6423.6462.0562.0567.0867.0872.9972.9959.3859.3811.9211.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 11.918 · range [-15.96, 90.71] · μ 43.920 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=82.5430 · σ=36.4970 · range [33.7536, 135.8503] · R²=0.031▲ RISING +30.76%σ EXTREME 44.22%LAST 61.2169135.8503110.326184.801959.277833.7536μ = 82.5430max 135.8503min 33.7536dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 61.22% · range [33.75%, 135.85%] · μ 82.54% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.176 · σ=0.265MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.030 (+0.55σ vs μ)0.6070.3040.000-0.304-0.607μ = -0.176-0.411-0.411-0.285-0.285-0.607-0.607-0.340-0.340-0.443-0.443-0.227-0.2270.2670.2670.4440.444-0.006-0.006-0.009-0.0090.1020.102-0.069-0.069-0.526-0.526-0.239-0.239-0.277-0.277-0.263-0.263-0.118-0.118-0.311-0.311-0.030-0.030v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.030 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.4274
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2971
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0034
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7021
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6009
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8626
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0466
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0407
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8737
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4345
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6640
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.132 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.56e-5 · top T=4.80h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 48.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.28e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.28e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.69e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.69e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.42e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.42e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.75e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.75e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.62e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.62e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.87e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.87e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.88e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.88e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 8.3% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=8.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.027e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.007%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.01× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.16%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.16%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.01×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×μ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.50× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 22.41400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.50× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.010
annualized 22.41
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.24%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.14%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.97×1.04×1.10×1.16×1.23×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 21.77σ ann 362% · Sortino 46.67 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1120%2240%3360%4481%5601%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)362.3%Ann. vol σ2176.7%Sharpe (ann)4667.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
5.3055.5815.8576.1336.4096.685t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:39:32 UTC
Snapshot age
5.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:39:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b251bc8892fa581040d1190fe31acc4068c25cee4fa28e7d272e3dcb16bf2541 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,674HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.47K
bid $896 · ask $1.58K
Depth within 10bp
$7.36K
bid $2.24K · ask $5.12K
Depth within 50bp
$26.72K
bid $12.97K · ask $13.75K
Mid price
6.193050
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.127
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.327
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K6.19533.67bp6.19554FILLED
BUY$10.00K6.201413.44bp6.209316FILLED
BUY$100.00K6.205019.26bp6.217720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K6.19054.09bp6.18783FILLED
SELL$10.00K6.180320.54bp6.171412FILLED
SELL$100.00K6.171335.13bp6.148820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-gmx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$6.0000–$7.0000★11$32.06K
$5.0000–$6.000014$17.90K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.496 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
16 / 8
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$36.95K
real volume
Sell weight
$12.44K
real volume
Net delta
$24.50K
buyers net
Imbalance
49.61%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
49.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gmx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.10% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 01:00:00Z0ms6.0496→5.98301.101%1
#22026-06-20 11:00:00Z0ms6.2306→6.17910.827%1
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h5.6887→5.64990.682%2

/api/asset/hl-gmx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
362.27%
σ per bar = 0.001580
Mean return (annualised)
7885.54%
μ per bar = 0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.77
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.24%
peak 5.77 → trough 5.52 over 1096 bars

/api/asset/hl-gmx/risk · same metrics, JSON