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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

GMT

GMT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-gmt · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.89%
realized vol (ann.)
108.72%
max drawdown
2.99%
sharpe
62.90
ulcer index
1.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.25%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
4272.21
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2408.24
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.89%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-22.85%
signalLONGconfidence 44%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +9.89%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-gmt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH671ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
9.89%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
GMT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0077, 0.0085] · R²=0.879▲ RISING +10.26%σ NORMAL 2.82%LAST 0.00850.00850.00830.00810.00790.0077μ = 0.0081max 0.0085min 0.0077dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.1%Short fee 50.9%SHORT FEE50.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002609% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=13,545,153 · μ=541806.1 · σ=248267.4 · CV=0.46RISING +69% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150269,465538,930808,3951,077,860μ = 5418061,077,86050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1077860 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
671ms
$mark $
$0.0085
$mid $
$0.0085
◉prev-day close
$0.0077
Δ24h Δ %
+9.889%
$24h vol $
$106.63k
◐open interest $
$267.88k
%funding (1h)
-0.002609%
%funding (yr)
-22.85%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0077, 0.0085] · R²=0.879▲ RISING +10.26%σ NORMAL 2.82%LAST 0.00850.00850.00830.00810.00790.0077μ = 0.0081max 0.0085min 0.0077dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0085 · 24h 9.89% · range $[0.0077, 0.0085]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0076, 0.0086] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +9.98%CLOSE 0.0085 vs OPEN 0.0077 (+9.98%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00850.00860.00830.00810.00790.0076μ close = 0.0081O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.65%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.65%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.54%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.30%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.30%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.08%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.08%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.76%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.76%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.26%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.28%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.28%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.02%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.02%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.18%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.24%)2.8%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+2.76%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+2.76%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.75%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.75%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.53%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.53%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.78%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.78%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.33%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.69%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.69%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.77%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.77%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.75%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.75%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.17%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.17%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.63%)O0.008 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.63%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=13,545,153 · μ=541806.1 · σ=248267.4 · CV=0.46RISING +69% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=150269,465538,930808,3951,077,860μ = 541806437,621 · 40.6% peak437,621 · 40.6% peak472,229 · 43.8% peak472,229 · 43.8% peak408,116 · 37.9% peak408,116 · 37.9% peak432,056 · 40.1% peak432,056 · 40.1% peak452,681 · 42.0% peak452,681 · 42.0% peak814,787 · 75.6% peak814,787 · 75.6% peak507,777 · 47.1% peak507,777 · 47.1% peak249,505 · 23.1% peak249,505 · 23.1% peak370,062 · 34.3% peak370,062 · 34.3% peak281,321 · 26.1% peak281,321 · 26.1% peak285,377 · 26.5% peak285,377 · 26.5% peak315,574 · 29.3% peak315,574 · 29.3% peak281,562 · 26.1% peak281,562 · 26.1% peak1,077,8601,077,860 · 100.0% peak1,077,860 · 100.0% peak469,204 · 43.5% peak469,204 · 43.5% peak808,242 · 75.0% peak808,242 · 75.0% peak610,642 · 56.7% peak610,642 · 56.7% peak916,142 · 85.0% peak916,142 · 85.0% peak681,910 · 63.3% peak681,910 · 63.3% peak366,038 · 34.0% peak366,038 · 34.0% peak624,858 · 58.0% peak624,858 · 58.0% peak381,225 · 35.4% peak381,225 · 35.4% peak832,155 · 77.2% peak832,155 · 77.2% peak1,075,168 · 99.8% peak1,075,168 · 99.8% peak393,041 · 36.5% peak393,041 · 36.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 13545153 · peak 1077860 · CV 0.46

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0038 · σ=0.0102 · skew=0.44 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.72 (mesokurtic)54310 1-132.64bpbin -132.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -132.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-96.31bpbin -96.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -96.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-59.99bpbin -59.99bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -59.99bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-23.66bpbin -23.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -23.66bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 212.67bpbin 12.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 12.67bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 148.99bpbin 48.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 48.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 485.32bpbin 85.32bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 85.32bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1121.65bpbin 121.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 121.65bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2157.97bpbin 157.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 157.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2194.30bpbin 194.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 194.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak230.63bp 1266.95bpbin 266.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 266.95bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.43 · kurt=-0.36 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0085
Mid price
$0.0085
24h change
+9.89%
Mark–mid spread
9.42 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0077

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.05)
μ MEAN0.0081$95% CI: [0.0080$, 0.0081$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.82%
med MEDIAN0.0080$Q₁ 0.0079$ · Q₃ 0.0082$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0077$Q₁ 0.0079$med 0.0080$Q₃ 0.0082$max 0.0085$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.477approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.050platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.41
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=36.61
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.407003%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.391
σᵣ STD / h1.040651%σ²ᵣ = 1.083×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.56×
σ ANNUALISED97.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.041%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)36.61excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)60.30strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.46approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.15mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.65
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3565.35%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.85%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.851%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.367%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.202%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.08%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.851%VaR₉₉−1.367%ES₉₅−1.202%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK0.82$
−2.08% drawdown over 2h
0.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.41× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.61× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.13% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
74.8 · overbought
Bollinger %B
0.940 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0085
Bollinger MA
$0.0081
Bollinger lower
$0.0077

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.371within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.059lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.869strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+12.940significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.869
H = 0.869STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.371k=2-0.059k=3-0.018k=4+0.058k=5+0.1490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.94)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.94)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$106.63k
Open interest (USD)
$267.88k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.40x
1h funding
-0.002609%
Funding (annualised)
-22.85%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.85% · worst -1.51% · typical |Δ| 0.86%MILD BULLISH +9.77%BEST+2.85%01hWORST-1.51%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.86%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+9.77%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.44% · Σ +3.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.64% · Σ +5.11%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +9.77%+9.86%0.00%0.81% · 12h0.81% · 12h0.81%12h1.64% · 13h1.64% · 13h1.64%13h-0.36% · 14h-0.36% · 14h-0.36%14h0.14% · 15h0.14% · 15h0.14%15h0.86% · 16h0.86% · 16h0.86%16h-0.20% · 17h-0.20% · 17h-0.20%17h-0.47% · 18h-0.47% · 18h-0.47%18h-0.16% · 19h-0.16% · 19h-0.16%19h1.02% · 20h1.02% · 20h1.02%20h-0.90% · 21h-0.90% · 21h-0.90%21h-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h1.10% · 23h1.10% · 23h1.10%23h0.29% · 00h0.29% · 00h0.29%00h2.85% · 01h2.85% · 01h2.85%01h★ BEST-1.51% · 02h-1.51% · 02h-1.51%02h▼ WORST-0.59% · 03h-0.59% · 03h-0.59%03h1.80% · 04h1.80% · 04h1.80%04h0.52% · 05h0.52% · 05h0.52%05h0.70% · 06h0.70% · 06h0.70%06h-0.56% · 07h-0.56% · 07h-0.56%07h1.65% · 08h1.65% · 08h1.65%08h-0.47% · 09h-0.47% · 09h-0.47%09h1.79% · 10h1.79% · 10h1.79%10h-0.09% · 11h-0.09% · 11h-0.09%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.11%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 2.85% · worst -1.51% · typical |Δ| 0.858%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +10.10%FINAL+10.10%MAX DD-2.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.21%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1010 · peak 1.1021 · range [1.0000, 1.1021]1.10211.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1021UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.09% · moderate0%-2.09%▼ TROUGH -2.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 7 total#1 -2.09%bar 16-18 · 3 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 11-12 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.83%bar 7-9 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.1010 (10.10%) · max DD -2.09% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=28.89 · σ=22.96PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 45.29 (+0.71σ vs μ)59.5629.780.00-29.78-59.56μ = 28.8959.5659.5630.5130.51-6.15-6.1530.4230.423.133.13-19.77-19.779.469.4625.4725.4751.7751.7717.4417.4421.0421.0438.5038.5033.1833.1837.3837.384.834.8353.2753.2756.7956.7956.7856.7845.2945.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 45.285 · range [-19.77, 59.56] · μ 28.889 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=98.4425 · σ=34.4030 · range [45.2052, 149.1733] · R²=0.293▲ RISING +37.55%σ EXTREME 34.95%LAST 97.5471149.1733123.181397.189371.197245.2052μ = 98.4425max 149.1733min 45.2052dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 97.55% · range [45.21%, 149.17%] · μ 98.44% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.329 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.838 (-2.14σ vs μ)0.8380.4190.000-0.419-0.838μ = -0.329-0.238-0.238-0.230-0.2300.0670.067-0.051-0.051-0.381-0.381-0.446-0.446-0.313-0.313-0.365-0.365-0.070-0.070-0.371-0.371-0.300-0.300-0.350-0.350-0.357-0.357-0.298-0.2980.0860.086-0.538-0.538-0.507-0.507-0.742-0.742-0.838-0.838v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.838 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6736
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4581
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5926
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8645
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8876
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0044
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8083
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.450 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.06e-4 · top T=2.40h (28.9%) · top-3 cover 65.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.7e-42.7e-41.8e-49.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.45e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.45e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.44e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.69e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.69e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.24e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.24e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.50e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.50e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.43e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.77e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.77e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.66e-4 · 28.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.66e-4 · 28.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 3.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 28.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.267e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.006%/barparametric μ/σ² 10.63× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.11%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.11%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
10.63×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.66× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 25.16400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.66× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 25.16
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.28%
VaR 95%5%
0.17%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.29%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.88×0.96×1.03×1.10×1.17×1.25×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 25.58σ ann 241% · Sortino 35.44 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%851%1701%2552%3403%4253%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)240.8%Ann. vol σ2558.0%Sharpe (ann)3544.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0070.0080.0080.0080.0090.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:38:44 UTC
Snapshot age
671ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:38:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
45cef2b4e531ccc78975595585d07491964f5279b4c4ba9cdece07559c98a582 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,667HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.8HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.39K
bid $675 · ask $718
Depth within 10bp
$4.58K
bid $1.57K · ask $3.01K
Depth within 50bp
$48.69K
bid $17.57K · ask $31.12K
Mid price
0.008500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.118
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.226
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0085033.60bp0.0085042FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00851417.11bp0.00852411FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00852732.21bp0.00857320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0084964.44bp0.0084944FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00848022.49bp0.00846910FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00846639.97bp0.00842620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.609e-5
-0.00261% / hr
Annualised APR
-22.867%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
16.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
16.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE22.867%16.0d159.7d
SHORTPAY-22.867%16.0d159.7d

/api/asset/hl-gmt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$13.55M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-gmt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.172 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.68M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.43M
real volume
Net delta
$2.25M
buyers net
Imbalance
17.16%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
17.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-gmt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.08% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 02:00:00Z1.0h0.008218→0.0080472.081%2
#22026-06-19 21:00:00Z1.0h0.007956→0.0078770.993%2
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h0.007941→0.0078750.831%2

/api/asset/hl-gmt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
240.75%
σ per bar = 0.001050
Mean return (annualised)
6158.52%
μ per bar = 0.000012
Sharpe (rf=0)
25.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.47%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1032 bars

/api/asset/hl-gmt/risk · same metrics, JSON