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HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENS

ENS-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ens · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.80%
realized vol (ann.)
73.98%
max drawdown
0.74%
sharpe
96.97
ulcer index
0.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
18562.75
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.66%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.18
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
10787.99
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.18
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
610
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.80%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -6.80%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ens/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4.793
24h Δ · live
-6.80%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
ENS · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=5.0850 · σ=0.2066 · range [4.6566, 5.2621] · R²=0.336▼ FALLING -6.75%σ NORMAL 4.06%LAST 4.79295.26215.11074.95944.80804.6566μ = 5.0850max 5.2621min 4.6566dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4.79
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=219,702 · μ=8788.1 · σ=24145.8 · CV=2.75BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=21028,92857,85586,783115,711μ = 8788115,710.6950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 115711 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$4.7929
$mid $
$4.7935
◉prev-day close
$5.1424
Δ24h Δ %
-6.796%
$24h vol $
$1.04M
◐open interest $
$1.53M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=5.0850 · σ=0.2066 · range [4.6566, 5.2621] · R²=0.336▼ FALLING -6.75%σ NORMAL 4.06%LAST 4.79295.26215.11074.95944.80804.6566μ = 5.0850max 5.2621min 4.6566dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4.7929 · 24h -6.80% · range $[4.6566, 5.2621]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [4.4865, 5.2934] · σ=0.2066 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -7.96%CLOSE 4.7929 vs OPEN 5.2073 (-7.96%)&#9660; CLOSE 4.79295.29345.09174.89004.68824.4865μ close = 5.0850O5.207 H5.211 L5.122 C5.140 (-1.29%)O5.207 H5.211 L5.122 C5.140 (-1.29%)O5.142 H5.155 L5.128 C5.146 (+0.08%)O5.142 H5.155 L5.128 C5.146 (+0.08%)O5.147 H5.147 L5.094 C5.094 (-1.04%)O5.147 H5.147 L5.094 C5.094 (-1.04%)O5.093 H5.103 L5.065 C5.085 (-0.16%)O5.093 H5.103 L5.065 C5.085 (-0.16%)O5.085 H5.123 L5.084 C5.103 (+0.36%)O5.085 H5.123 L5.084 C5.103 (+0.36%)O5.113 H5.168 L5.097 C5.157 (+0.86%)O5.113 H5.168 L5.097 C5.157 (+0.86%)O5.167 H5.249 L5.159 C5.240 (+1.41%)O5.167 H5.249 L5.159 C5.240 (+1.41%)O5.230 H5.253 L5.208 C5.235 (+0.09%)O5.230 H5.253 L5.208 C5.235 (+0.09%)O5.226 H5.241 L5.204 C5.230 (+0.07%)O5.226 H5.241 L5.204 C5.230 (+0.07%)O5.236 H5.249 L5.180 C5.181 (-1.04%)O5.236 H5.249 L5.180 C5.181 (-1.04%)O5.181 H5.266 L5.181 C5.262 (+1.56%)O5.181 H5.266 L5.181 C5.262 (+1.56%)O5.260 H5.274 L5.203 C5.235 (-0.46%)O5.260 H5.274 L5.203 C5.235 (-0.46%)O5.239 H5.239 L5.174 C5.190 (-0.93%)O5.239 H5.239 L5.174 C5.190 (-0.93%)O5.201 H5.230 L5.187 C5.222 (+0.40%)O5.201 H5.230 L5.187 C5.222 (+0.40%)O5.223 H5.230 L5.189 C5.202 (-0.41%)O5.223 H5.230 L5.189 C5.202 (-0.41%)O5.203 H5.250 L5.198 C5.227 (+0.46%)O5.203 H5.250 L5.198 C5.227 (+0.46%)O5.228 H5.256 L5.218 C5.256 (+0.54%)O5.228 H5.256 L5.218 C5.256 (+0.54%)O5.266 H5.293 L5.244 C5.248 (-0.35%)O5.266 H5.293 L5.244 C5.248 (-0.35%)O5.242 H5.245 L5.216 C5.245 (+0.05%)O5.242 H5.245 L5.216 C5.245 (+0.05%)-10.4%O5.248 H5.248 L4.668 C4.701 (-10.42%)O5.248 H5.248 L4.668 C4.701 (-10.42%)O4.715 H4.733 L4.487 C4.657 (-1.24%)O4.715 H4.733 L4.487 C4.657 (-1.24%)O4.647 H4.780 L4.642 C4.712 (+1.40%)O4.647 H4.780 L4.642 C4.712 (+1.40%)O4.709 H4.800 L4.692 C4.783 (+1.57%)O4.709 H4.800 L4.692 C4.783 (+1.57%)O4.784 H4.820 L4.752 C4.785 (+0.01%)O4.784 H4.820 L4.752 C4.785 (+0.01%)O4.789 H4.815 L4.774 C4.793 (+0.08%)O4.789 H4.815 L4.774 C4.793 (+0.08%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=219,702 · μ=8788.1 · σ=24145.8 · CV=2.75BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=21028,92857,85586,783115,711μ = 87881,402.67 · 1.2% peak1,402.67 · 1.2% peak688.7 · 0.6% peak688.7 · 0.6% peak2,133.63 · 1.8% peak2,133.63 · 1.8% peak1,152.91 · 1.0% peak1,152.91 · 1.0% peak1,056.21 · 0.9% peak1,056.21 · 0.9% peak1,696.38 · 1.5% peak1,696.38 · 1.5% peak1,105.91 · 1.0% peak1,105.91 · 1.0% peak364.32 · 0.3% peak364.32 · 0.3% peak432.91 · 0.4% peak432.91 · 0.4% peak1,468.18 · 1.3% peak1,468.18 · 1.3% peak1,081.29 · 0.9% peak1,081.29 · 0.9% peak1,100.03 · 1.0% peak1,100.03 · 1.0% peak869.9 · 0.8% peak869.9 · 0.8% peak550.39 · 0.5% peak550.39 · 0.5% peak411.12 · 0.4% peak411.12 · 0.4% peak1,021.58 · 0.9% peak1,021.58 · 0.9% peak272.47 · 0.2% peak272.47 · 0.2% peak894.16 · 0.8% peak894.16 · 0.8% peak1,951.55 · 1.7% peak1,951.55 · 1.7% peak26,911.8 · 23.3% peak26,911.8 · 23.3% peak115,710.69115,710.69 · 100.0% peak115,710.69 · 100.0% peak39,407.72 · 34.1% peak39,407.72 · 34.1% peak15,067.77 · 13.0% peak15,067.77 · 13.0% peak1,895.51 · 1.6% peak1,895.51 · 1.6% peak1,053.84 · 0.9% peak1,053.84 · 0.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 219702 · peak 115711 · CV 2.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0033 · σ=0.0223 · skew=-3.80 (left-skewed) · kurt=14.58 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-1042.61bpbin -1042.61bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -1042.61bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-938.13bp-833.65bp-729.17bp-624.70bp-520.22bp-415.74bp-311.26bp-206.78bp 5-102.30bpbin -102.30bp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin -102.30bp · n=5 · 45.5% peak 112.18bpbin 2.18bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 2.18bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 7106.66bpbin 106.66bp · n=7 · 63.6% peakbin 106.66bp · n=7 · 63.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-3.80 · kurt=14.66 · near 8 / mid 13 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.72 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.50σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4.7929
Mid price
$4.7935
24h change
-6.80%
Mark–mid spread
1.25 bps
Prev-day close
$5.1424

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.02)
μ MEAN5.0850$95% CI: [5.0041$, 5.1660$]
σ STD DEV0.2066$σ² = 0.043 · CV = 4.06%
med MEDIAN5.1811$Q₁ 5.0845$ · Q₃ 5.2350$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.6055$ · IQR 0.1505$ (1.349σ→0.2787$)
min 4.6566$Q₁ 5.0845$med 5.1811$Q₃ 5.2350$max 5.2621$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.019left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.696mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.46
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.93
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-11.35
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.291242%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.121
σᵣ STD / h2.401518%σ²ᵣ = 5.767×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.25×
σ ANNUALISED224.77%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.402%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-11.35negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.48downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-4.06left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂18.54leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.75
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2551.28%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.01%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.012%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)8.666%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)5.986%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN11.51%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.012%VaR₉₉−8.666%ES₉₅−5.986%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK526.21$
−11.51% drawdown over 10h
465.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSextreme fat tail · ES ≫ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 5.92× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 8.57× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +13.00% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
34.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.192 · within band
Bollinger upper
$5.5405
Bollinger MA
$5.0779
Bollinger lower
$4.6153

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.068within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.118lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.863strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.414significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.863
H = 0.863STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.068k=2-0.118k=3-0.193k=4-0.088k=5+0.0070+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.79very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.04M
Open interest (USD)
$1.53M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.68x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-5.050× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.525× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.262×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.59% · worst -10.95% · typical |Δ| 1.06%MILD BEARISH -6.99%BEST+1.59%13hWORST-10.95%02hTYPICAL |Δ|1.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.99%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 4up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.15% · Σ -9.22%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.73%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.99%+2.35%-9.87%0.12% · 08h0.12% · 08h0.12%08h-1.02% · 09h-1.02% · 09h-1.02%09h-0.18% · 10h-0.18% · 10h-0.18%10h0.37% · 11h0.37% · 11h0.37%11h1.05% · 12h1.05% · 12h1.05%12h1.59% · 13h1.59% · 13h1.59%13h★ BEST-0.09% · 14h-0.09% · 14h-0.09%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h-0.93% · 16h-0.93% · 16h-0.93%16h1.55% · 17h1.55% · 17h1.55%17h-0.51% · 18h-0.51% · 18h-0.51%18h-0.88% · 19h-0.88% · 19h-0.88%19h0.61% · 20h0.61% · 20h0.61%20h-0.38% · 21h-0.38% · 21h-0.38%21h0.49% · 22h0.49% · 22h0.49%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h-0.15% · 00h-0.15% · 00h-0.15%00h-0.06% · 01h-0.06% · 01h-0.06%01h-10.95% · 02h-10.95% · 02h-10.95%02h▼ WORST-0.94% · 03h-0.94% · 03h-0.94%03h1.19% · 04h1.19% · 04h1.19%04h1.48% · 05h1.48% · 05h1.48%05h0.04% · 06h0.04% · 06h0.04%06h0.17% · 07h0.17% · 07h0.17%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.73%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.59% · worst -10.95% · typical |Δ| 1.059%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -7.42%FINAL-7.42%MAX DD-12.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.34%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9258 · peak 1.0234 · range [0.8996, 1.0234]1.02340.8996break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0234UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.09% · significant0%-12.09%▼ TROUGH -12.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -12.09%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.21%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -1.12%bar 8-10 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9258 (-7.42%) · max DD -12.09% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=2.33 · σ=31.28MIXED EDGELAST -29.84 (-1.03σ vs μ)56.2628.130.00-28.13-56.26μ = 2.3332.5332.5328.5328.5356.2656.2632.5732.5746.2446.2422.0422.04-16.34-16.34-4.13-4.13-8.60-8.6015.2915.29-2.80-2.806.176.1738.5938.59-36.26-36.26-38.43-38.43-35.36-35.36-31.45-31.45-30.73-30.73-29.84-29.84v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.840 · range [-38.43, 56.26] · μ 2.332 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=190.6425 · σ=168.8927 · range [39.8825, 440.7566] · R²=0.607▲ RISING +411.14%σ EXTREME 88.59%LAST 440.7566440.7566340.5381240.3195140.101039.8825μ = 190.6425max 440.7566min 39.8825dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 440.76% · range [39.88%, 440.76%] · μ 190.64% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.120 · σ=0.284MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.103 (+0.79σ vs μ)0.5230.2620.000-0.262-0.523μ = -0.1200.4430.4430.2640.2640.1440.1440.2830.283-0.059-0.059-0.429-0.429-0.411-0.411-0.485-0.485-0.523-0.523-0.284-0.284-0.119-0.119-0.447-0.447-0.382-0.382-0.009-0.009-0.116-0.116-0.135-0.135-0.071-0.071-0.044-0.0440.1030.103v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.103 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
409.6025
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8679
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8679
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0525
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7324
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4528
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0544
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3447
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7303
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.105 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.76e-4 · top T=6.00h (15.0%) · top-3 cover 41.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-37.8e-45.2e-42.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.45e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.45e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.28e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.28e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.02e-3 · 14.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.02e-3 · 14.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-3 · 15.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-3 · 15.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.52e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.52e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.80e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.80e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.95e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.95e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.88e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.88e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.98e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.98e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.68e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.68e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.40e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.40e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.64e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.64e-4 · 8.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 15.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.914e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4726 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.33× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.38× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.21%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.21%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.33×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.38×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.67×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.33×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.9×1.8×2.7×3.6×4.4×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.34× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.34× · bootstrap from 4725 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.26
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.07%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.05×1.08×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 6.56σ ann 476% · Sortino 5.00 · n 4725 · ⚠ capped (n=4725 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)476.5%Ann. vol σ656.3%Sharpe (ann)499.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.2854.5864.8875.1885.4895.790t-4725t-3938t-3150t-2363t-1575t-788t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:56:19 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:56:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d8902d8ff5ed224f725cabe9e4862b3ab49ee13f1c1e8e87c142af5b9c83aaf4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.71K
bid $1.13K · ask $587
Depth within 10bp
$5.01K
bid $3.00K · ask $2.01K
Depth within 50bp
$69.21K
bid $56.69K · ask $12.51K
Mid price
4.793550
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.247
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.107
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4.79594.89bp4.79723FILLED
BUY$10.00K4.804622.95bp4.816112FILLED
BUY$100.00K4.816547.94bp4.829820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K4.79213.02bp4.79163FILLED
SELL$10.00K4.786814.13bp4.780214FILLED
SELL$100.00K4.778731.02bp4.770420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ens/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$5.0000–$6.000019$19.65K
$4.0000–$5.0000★6$200.05K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ens/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.405 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$64.90K
real volume
Sell weight
$153.40K
real volume
Net delta
$88.50K
sellers net
Imbalance
-40.54%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
40.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ens/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 11.40% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 02:00:00Z2.0h5.2560→4.656611.404%3
#22026-06-19 18:00:00Z3.0h5.2621→5.18971.376%4
#32026-06-19 09:00:00Z2.0h5.1463→5.08451.201%3

/api/asset/hl-ens/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,726 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
476.47%
σ per bar = 0.002079
Mean return (annualised)
3126.84%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.56
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.89%
peak 5.52 → trough 4.75 over 3985 bars

/api/asset/hl-ens/risk · same metrics, JSON