HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES
CFX
CFX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · perp-cfx · fresh · feed 2s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.01%
realized vol (ann.)
41.46%
max drawdown
0.33%
sharpe
97.03
ulcer index
0.12%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
33906.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.20
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
15408.46
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.20
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
613
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.01%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
- 24h change -1.01%
- funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-cfx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.048
24h Δ · live
-1.01%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
25 closes · last $0.05
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
peak 2512895 contracts
1.7s
$0.0481
$0.0481
$0.0486
-1.014%
$570.70k
$3.42M
0.001250%
+10.95%/yr
§1 · 24h time-series
mark $0.0481 · 24h -1.01% · range $[0.0478, 0.0509]
25 bars
Σ vol 11631999 · peak 2512895 · CV 1.42
§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
§3 · Spot quote
- Mark price
- $0.0481
- Mid price
- $0.0481
- 24h change
- -1.01%
- Mark–mid spread
- 1.66 bps
- Prev-day close
- $0.0486
§4 · Sample moments (prices)
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.477approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.984mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.
§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.81
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE
SHARPE (annualised)-5.81negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.70downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-71.24drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE
SKEWNESS · G₁0.66right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.36mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.
§6 · Risk metrics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.97%
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILE
PEAK5.09$4.78$TROUGH
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.
§7 · Technicals
- RSI(14)
- 45.6 · neutral
- Bollinger %B
- 0.262 · within band
- Bollinger upper
- $0.0508
- Bollinger MA
- $0.0490
- Bollinger lower
- $0.0471
§8 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.042STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§9 · Microstructure
- 24h volume (USD)
- $570.70k
- Open interest (USD)
- $3.42M
- Vol / OI (turnover)
- 0.17x
- 1h funding
- 0.001250%
- Funding (annualised)
- +10.95%/yr
§10 · Position sizing
- Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
- -7.860× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
- Half-Kelly
- -3.930× · industry-standard conservative
- Quarter-Kelly
- -1.965×
§11 · Hourly return heatmap
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.71% · worst -1.09% · typical |Δ| 0.645%
§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9876 (-1.24%) · max DD -6.05% · time-under-water 20/25 bars
§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -6.168 · range [-114.37, 74.69] · μ -29.186 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 46.21% · range [46.21%, 110.67%] · μ 67.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.300 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
1.8736
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3919
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
1.9333
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8592
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-0.8325
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8087
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0223
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.6984
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4850
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 21.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.196e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4729 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC
Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.
§17 · Continuous Kelly
f★ empirical 3.30× · g(f★) 0.003%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.14× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.22%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.22%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.30×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.65×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.82×
industry default — survives model error
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.
§18 · MC equity fan
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 21.04400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.78× · bootstrap from 4728 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.009
annualized 21.04
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.17%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.
§19 · Annualized breakdown
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.88σ ann 506% · Sortino 15.00 · n 4728 · ⚠ capped (n=4728 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).
§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.
Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- api.hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-20 07:56:37 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 1.7s
- History points
- 25 hourly closes
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-20 07:56:39 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
c6d5f823de5189a4434240516b7ef5c46dc5c3fa8978ed55ad178c42e54ffefa· deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDUruguay67.8¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,678HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.1HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Market depth
▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perpDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.48K
bid $2.64K · ask $833
Depth within 10bp
$9.29K
bid $5.19K · ask $4.10K
Depth within 50bp
$39.40K
bid $24.34K · ask $15.06K
Mid price
0.048119
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.032
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.024
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perpSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cfx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.048131 | 2.44bp | 0.048145 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.048223 | 21.54bp | 0.048327 | 13 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.048319 | 41.37bp | 0.048425 | 20 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.048107 | 2.52bp | 0.048097 | 4 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.048059 | 12.65bp | 0.047994 | 16 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.048012 | 22.29bp | 0.047947 | 20 | PARTIAL |
Funding carry
▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receiveHourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
| Side | Direction | Annualised carry | Days → 1% | Days → 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | PAY | -10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
| SHORT | RECEIVE | 10.958% | 33.3d | 333.3d |
/api/asset/hl-cfx/carry · same metrics, JSON
Volume profile
▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records| Price bin | Bars | Volume | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.000000–$1.0000★ | 25 | $11.63M |
★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-cfx/volprofile?priceStep=1
Order flow
▸ BID-LEAN · +0.089 · Hyperliquid candlesBars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.31M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.28M
real volume
Net delta
$1.04M
buyers net
Imbalance
8.93%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume
Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-cfx/flow?rollingWindow=30
Cascade clusters
▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 4.50% · Hyperliquid candlesPrice-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.
| # | Window | Duration | Peak → Trough | Drawdown | Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2026-06-19 14:00:00Z | 9.0h | 0.050865→0.048575 | 4.502% | 10 |
| #2 | 2026-06-20 01:00:00Z | 2.0h | 0.048777→0.047801 | 2.001% | 3 |
/api/asset/hl-cfx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 4,729 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25MRealized vol (annualised)
506.07%
σ per bar = 0.002209
Mean return (annualised)
8036.49%
μ per bar = 0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.04%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 3905 bars
/api/asset/hl-cfx/risk · same metrics, JSON